Offseason Notes for November 4th


Wang cited Washington DC’s beautiful flora as his main reason for staying with the Nats.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
3. Projection: ZiPS for New York (NL)

Assorted Headlines
All the nerd that’s fit to print.

Wang Re-Signs with Washington
Ground-balling right-hander Chien-Ming Wang has signed a one-year, $4 million contract with the Washington Nationals, reports Amanda Comak of the Washington Times. The move gives the Nats a 2012 rotation along these lines: Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan, Chien-Ming Wang. Ross Detwiler, Tom Milone, and Brad Peacock are likely to compete for the fifth-starter role. For more on Wang, read Jim Breen’s piece on him from only two weeks ago.

Pittsburgh Interested Re-Signing in Lee
The Pirates have already started trying to re-sign first baseman Derrek Lee, MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch reports. Lee, who’s 36 and has posted a wRC+ of about 111 over the last two seasons, isn’t a particularly elite talent at this point; however, Garrett Jones (or maybe Pedro Alvarez) are the only real alternatives at first for Pittsburgh.

Marlins Likely to Pursue Starting Pitchers
The Miami Marlins, who’ll benefit from increased revenue with the opening of their new stadium, are likely to make some free-agent signings this winter, and their first priority will be starting pitching, according to Ken Rosenthal of Bow Tie Quarterly. The team already has three pretty excellent starters in Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, and Ricky Nolasco. Edwin Jackson, Hiroki Kuroda, Roy Oswalt, and C.J. Wilson are the top pitchers available this winter. Yu Darvish is another possibility, but might very well cost more than he’s worth.

SCOUT Leaderboards: Arizona Fall League
Batting Leaderboard
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Arizona Fall League (AFL). SCOUT represents an attempt to derive something meaningful from small samples and is the average of a player’s standard deviations from the AFL mean in three important (and regressed) stats: walk rate, strikeout rate, and home-run rate. (Click here for more on SCOUT.)


Name Org PA xBB% xK% xHR% BBz Kz HRz SCOUT
Robbie Grossman PIT 115 13.7% 15.2% 3.7% 0.84 0.69 0.42 0.65
Michael Choice OAK 70 10.9% 17.8% 4.1% 0.23 0.29 0.61 0.38
Wil Myers KC 85 14.1% 19.2% 3.0% 0.94 0.07 0.09 0.37
Bryce Harper WAS 74 10.7% 17.9% 4.1% 0.19 0.27 0.59 0.35
Joe Panik SF 68 9.9% 14.1% 2.8% 0.04 0.88 0.02 0.31
Anthony Seratelli KC 53 13.2% 18.0% 2.6% 0.74 0.25 -0.07 0.31
Jedd Gyorko SD 66 11.0% 17.7% 3.5% 0.28 0.31 0.32 0.30
Jefry Marte NYN 70 11.4% 17.8% 3.1% 0.34 0.29 0.16 0.26
Brodie Greene CIN 69 10.4% 16.6% 3.1% 0.14 0.48 0.16 0.26
Nolan Arenado COL 84 7.2% 14.0% 3.7% -0.56 0.89 0.40 0.24

Notes
• Newest to the top-10 AFL batting leaderboard is Cincinnati middle-infield prospect Brodie Greene. Greene, 24, has made his way up the charts predominantly by virtue of his strikeout prevention. Greene made the bulk of his appearances in 2011 in the the High-A California League — a league for which he skewed old.
• Uber-prospect Bryce Harper has hit five home runs in his last six games, and, as a consequence, has ascended rapidly up the SCOUT rankings. As Marc Hulet recently noted, Harper’s power projects as an 80 on the 20-80 scouting scale.

Pitching Leaderboard
For pitchers, SCOUT is the average of a player’s standard deviations from the AFL mean in (regressed) strikeout and walk rate.


Name Org G GS IP BF xK% xBB% Kz BBz SCOUT
Bradley Boxberger CIN 9 0 11.1 47 26.0% 9.0% 0.92 0.01 0.46
Anthony Bass SD 5 4 18.2 81 23.7% 8.3% 0.59 0.17 0.38
Chris Carpenter CHN 9 0 11.2 47 24.1% 8.6% 0.65 0.09 0.37
Miguel De Los Santos TEX 6 3 17.0 71 25.6% 9.7% 0.86 -0.14 0.36
Kevin Munson ARI 10 0 10.2 40 23.7% 8.6% 0.59 0.10 0.34
Evan Reed FLA 8 0 10.2 42 23.4% 8.9% 0.55 0.03 0.29
Tyler Lyons STL 5 5 19.2 81 23.0% 8.8% 0.49 0.05 0.27
Forrest Snow SEA 6 1 10.2 35 23.0% 8.8% 0.49 0.04 0.27
Aaron Loup TOR 9 0 13.1 57 21.4% 8.3% 0.26 0.16 0.21
Gerrit Cole PIT 4 4 12.0 47 21.4% 8.8% 0.27 0.05 0.16

Notes
In his most recent start, Cardinal prospect Tyler Lyons threw five hit- and walk-less innings while also striking out five batters. That now gives him a 10:0 K:BB over his last 10 innings. Lyons pitched in the High-A Florida State League as a 23-year-old this year with only average-ish numbers — which, none of that serves as a particularly excellent endorsement. Still, success in the AFL is nothing to sneeze at — although, why you’d want to sneeze at it in the first place is a bit of a mystery.

Projection: ZiPS for New York (NL)
Dan Szymborski has published his ZiPS projections for the New York Mets, nor is the diagnosis favorable. The top field player per ZiPS (Jose Reyes) has entered free agency, while the top pitcher (Johan Santana) made no major-league appearances in 2011 and is a question mark for 2012.

I’ll submit that, if ZiPS has missed on one player, in particular, it’s Jonathon Niese at a mere 92 ERA+. Niese has improved each year and posted a line of 3.42 SIERA, 3.28 xFIP, 85 xFIP- this season with component stats (19.9% K, 6.3% BB, 51.5% GB) that all represent improvements on his 2010.




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.

13 Responses to “Offseason Notes for November 4th”

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  1. Richard says:

    Are you mocking flip flops with this article? That’s the vibe I get. If that’s true, it’s low. Flip flops, make noise while walking, which allow me to play music while walking. I plan on making a CD with flip flops. They also provide tans line like no other. Tan lines look good on me. If you are mocking flip flops, it means you are mocking me. If you are mocking me, you are mocking anyone who looks like Carrot Top. Although I do not look like Carrot Top, I think his comedy is awful. I’d rather see Snooki do stand up comedy, although I really hate shampoo bottle instructions. Rinse and repeat? Uh no. That’s just trying to get me to buy more shampoo. For that reason, I am bald. Actually no, I’m bald because of genetics but I like the other reason better. You like hot chocolate at all? I do.

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    • Yirmiyahu says:

      What website did you mean to post that comment on?

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      • Richard says:

        This one of course! I love talking Chess with my fellow Scientology lovers. If you can’t support Scientology, you can’t support kittens. Man, my button fell off my sweater. Isn’t it insane when that happens? Luckily this one came with a spare. Unluckily, I threw it out because I never thought I would need it and it distracted me. Side burns are the devil, or the super big alien dude. No matter how hard anyone tries, I can’t be beat at thumb wars. Ready? Go. See, you didn’t beat me.

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  2. Richard says:

    So as I was saying, I had it when my printer jams. What really grinds my gears is when I go up steps that are that awkward height. I can’t go up 2 steps because they are too big to do that, but 1 step feels too small. It’s like no matter what I do, my mom can’t accept me for who I am. I blame social media. She won’t even accept my request on facebook. I followed her on twitter, and she didn’t cook me my animal shaped chicken nuggets that night. Man, dishes suck. I always grab the dish soap bottle and my hand feels weird afterwards because of the soap run-off left on the bottle. So then I have to wash my hands.

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    • GiantHusker says:

      Thanks, Richard, your hilarious comments gave me a needed pickup today.

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      • Richard says:

        That’s good to hear! When I need a pickup, I just call Fed Ex and tell them: “Hey, don’t deliver my package, I’ll pick it up”, even if I don’t have a package, because I am a one man wolf pack, of cigarettes. Smoking is bad for your health, but also, smoking is bad for Zoo keepers. Don’t let zookeepers bring you down with their fancy hats like the one guy did to me. I am a happy person, when I am a feeling happy. I named my dog Happy.

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  3. Tyler says:

    Oh hey Richard! Good games yesterday! You really had your serve working. Do you always wear headbands when playing tennis? I was told I would be more aerodynamic if I did but I never believed it. You won’t believe what happened to me today. I was bagging groceries when I saw Alex Trebek. I tried to convince him to let me on Jeopardy but he kept telling me some story that his real name was Regis or something. I don’t know. I guess I’m too smart for that show. I will just stick to bagging groceries from now on. I could get a promotion to cart-boy anytime now.

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  4. Eminor3rd says:

    Hmm. Seems like ZiPs should have some way to deal with players missing entire seasons due to injury.

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  5. Mitch says:

    full moon today?

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  6. Kyle says:

    That Bryce Harper dude sure is going to have an interesting career.

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  7. Choo says:

    Wang before the flora . . . very Georgia O’Keeffe.

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