Offseason Notes for October 18th
Everyone’s very excited about the release of ZiPS Minor League Translations.
Today’s edition of Offseason Notes contains the following:
1. An Announcement re: ZiPS Minor League Translations
2. A Hastily Made zMLE Batting Leaderboard
3. SCOUT Batting Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League
4. SCOUT Pitching Leaderboard: Arizona Fall League
An Announcement re: ZiPS Minor League Translations
What the Announcement Is, Specifically
The announcement regarding ZiPS Minor League Translations (zMLEs), specifically, is that they (i.e. zMLEs) are now available at Baseball Think Factory.
What zMLEs Are
ZiPS MLEs are the translations of minor-league stats to their major-league equivalents used by Dan Szymborski in his ZiPS projections.
Where zMLEs Are
ZiPS MLEs are located here.
A Thing You Need to Know
A think you need to know is that the file to which Szymborski links is an RAR file and you’ll need to unpack it — with WinRAR or some other similar program.
A Hastily Made zMLE Batting Leaderboard
Unnecessary Bold Heading
Below is a hastily made batting leaderboard using zMLEs. Note that I merely estimated wOBA — using (OBP * 1.75 + SLG) / 3 — and, therefore, Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA).
Name Org LV Age AB wOBA* wRAA* P. Goldschmidt ARI AA 23 391 .373 21.0 Taylor Green MIL AAA 24 435 .358 15.9 Bryan LaHair CHN AAA 28 474 .355 15.9 Ryan Lavarnway BOS AAA 23 236 .369 11.3 Devin Mesoraco CIN AAA 23 445 .348 12.2 C-H Chiang BOS AA 23 331 .355 10.9 James Darnell SD AA 24 301 .352 9.7 Brett Lawrie TOR AAA 21 301 .352 9.2 Yonder Alonso CIN AAA 24 366 .346 9.3 Wily Mo Pena ARI AAA 29 247 .355 8.2
SCOUT Batting Leaderboard
The Leaderboard
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Arizona Fall League. (Click here for more on SCOUT.)
| Name | Org | SCOUT | Kz | xK% | HRz | xHR% | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | BABIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro. Grossman | PIT | 0.34 | 0.40 | 16.4% | 0.29 | 3.3% | 59 | .365 | .441 | .654 | .366 |
| J. Cunningham | PIT | 0.27 | 0.30 | 17.1% | 0.23 | 3.2% | 38 | .235 | .308 | .588 | .185 |
| Nolan Arenado | COL | 0.27 | 0.54 | 15.4% | 0.00 | 2.5% | 41 | .375 | .381 | .525 | .378 |
| Jedd Gyorko | SD | 0.25 | 0.25 | 17.5% | 0.25 | 3.2% | 30 | .393 | .433 | .714 | .364 |
| Corban Joseph | NYA | 0.20 | 0.29 | 17.3% | 0.12 | 2.8% | 37 | .212 | .297 | .455 | .185 |
| A. Castellanos | STL | 0.19 | 0.14 | 18.3% | 0.24 | 3.2% | 34 | .379 | .471 | .828 | .381 |
| Brian Dozier | MIN | 0.18 | 0.36 | 16.7% | 0.00 | 2.5% | 41 | .368 | .419 | .500 | .394 |
| Ma. Dominguez | FLA | 0.17 | 0.20 | 17.9% | 0.14 | 2.9% | 32 | .357 | .424 | .607 | .364 |
| Wilfredo Tovar | NYN | 0.15 | 0.40 | 16.4% | -0.09 | 2.2% | 33 | .267 | .333 | .367 | .286 |
| Josh Vitters | CHN | 0.13 | 0.14 | 18.3% | 0.12 | 2.8% | 39 | .405 | .425 | .649 | .448 |
Notes
The degree to which he’s capable of controlling the strike zone will likely determine the degree to which Pittsbirgh infield prospect Jarek Cunningham is able to succeed at the major-league level. With just four strikeouts (and four walks, too) in his 38 AFL plate appearances, Cunningham has looked sharp. This year at High-A Bradenton, however, the 21-year-old posted a 23.6% strikeout rate, versus only a 4.9% walk rate — almost identical to what he produced in 2010 at Low-A West Virginia. It’s very possible that Cunningham’s development was delayed from missing all of 2009 with an ACL tear. In any event, the power is interesting: Cunningham hit 15 homers this season in just 348 plate appearances while playing in a mostly neutral park.
SCOUT Pitching Leaderboard
The Leaderboard
Same verse, very similar to the first.
| Name | Org | SCOUT | K9z | xK9 | K9 | BB9z | xBB9 | BB9 | G | GS | IP | BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Munson | ARI | 0.22 | 0.39 | 9.2 | 18.0 | 0.05 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 5 | 0 | 5.0 | 20 |
| Bradley Boxberger | CIN | 0.20 | 0.41 | 9.2 | 16.2 | 0.00 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 5 | 0 | 6.2 | 26 |
| Jacob Petricka | CHA | 0.15 | 0.30 | 8.8 | 14.4 | 0.01 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4 | 0 | 5.0 | 24 |
| Josh Wall | LAN | 0.15 | 0.27 | 8.8 | 13.5 | 0.03 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 5 | 0 | 5.1 | 25 |
| Stephen Fife | LAN | 0.14 | 0.31 | 8.9 | 11.2 | -0.02 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 3 | 3 | 9.2 | 49 |
| Chris Carpenter | CHN | 0.14 | 0.25 | 8.7 | 14.3 | 0.03 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 4 | 0 | 5.2 | 21 |
| Bryan Woodall | ARI | 0.13 | 0.20 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 0.06 | 3.9 | 0.0 | 4 | 0 | 6.0 | 25 |
| Steve Johnson | BAL | 0.11 | 0.21 | 8.5 | 12.0 | 0.02 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 6.0 | 26 |
| Forrest Snow | SEA | 0.09 | 0.13 | 8.3 | 10.4 | 0.04 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 1 | 8.2 | 27 |
| Nick Schmidt | SD | 0.08 | 0.27 | 8.7 | 11.6 | -0.10 | 4.4 | 9.0 | 3 | 2 | 7.0 | 38 |
Notes
Even though he conceded three homers and seven total runs in just three innings Monday night, Dodger minor-leaguer Stephen Fife, 25, has managed the best SCOUT number so far among AFL starters. Consider, for example, that five of the six batted-balls outs he induced were by ground ball — a ratio consistent with his first two AFL starts. Consider, also, that he’s struck out 12 of the 49 batters he’s faced (i.e. 24.5%). John Sickels notes that the fastball is decent and of the sinking variety, but that the secondary stuff is unspectacular.
These sample sizes are beyond tiny… can you really give the numbers any weight?
You’re right to be concerned about drawing unnecessarily strong conclusions from a limited sample.
In this case, however, we’re giving these numbers the exact right amount of weight. I’ve regressed each of the four stats — batter strikeout and home-run rate, pitcher strikeout and walk rate — back to league average for every plate appearance between the batter/pitcher’s current amount and the amount at which each respective stat becomes reliable. (Or, becomes reliable in the major leagues, at least. It COULD be different in the AFL.)
What we’re really looking at is stats that correlate, to some degree, with “tools” — the ability to make contact, to hit for power, etc. Players are not merely the sum of their tools, of course. On the other hand, it’s possible to derive SOME kind of meaning from the AFL numbers — just as long as we practice restraint. (And citing these numbers is still better than citing a player’s slash line from the AFL.)
Forrest Snow. Best name ever.
For the zMLEs, did you use a minimum number of ABs?