OLIVER Top 10 Prospect List, Revised

Towards the end of January, I wrote a review of the OLIVER projections — and general layout of same — that appear at The Hardball Times (a piece that was complemented by an interview with the giant brain behind the operation, Brian Cartwright). As part of that review, I included a “Kinda Sorta” Prospect List — that is, the top-10 rookie-eligible batters sorted purely by OLIVER’s projected 2011 WAR.

Mr. Cartwright has recently informed me that, since that first post, he has altered the amount of regression on the defensive side of the player projections. As a result, the top-10 list has changed, and so I offer this follow-up.

In fact, below you will find two lists. Because the first list is so rife with catchers, I’ve included a second list of field players sans sans catchers.

With Catchers:

1. Jesus Montero, C, NYA
2. Robinson Chirinos, C, TBA
3. Derek Norris, C, WAS
4. Mike Moustakas, 3B, KCA
5. Wil Myers, C, KCA
6. Matt Young, CF, ATL
7. Devin Mesoraco, C, CIN
8. Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE
9. Todd Frazier, LF, CIN
10. Ryan Lavarnway, C, BOS

Sans Catchers:

1. Mike Moustakas, 3B, KCA
2. Matt Young, CF, ATL
3. Jason Kipnis, 2B, CLE
4. Todd Frazier, LF, CIN
5. Dustin Ackley, 2B, SEA
6. Zack Cozart, SS, CIN
7. Brock Holt , SS, PIT
8. Marquez Smith, 3B, CHN
9. Brad Emaus, 2B, NYN
10. Thomas Neal, LF, SFN

Notes:

Andrelton Simmons (SS, ATL, formerly No. 4) and Zelous Wheeler (SS, MIL, formerly No. 10) fall off the first list due to the defensive regressions. Mesoraco and Frazier are the new additions.

• Angel prospect Mike Trout finishes at No. 12 on that latter list.

• Matt Young and Ryan Lavarnway both appear on my totally hot non-prospect rookie list in this year’s Second Opinion. Available at better bookstores everywhere right here, actually. Young is probably better than Nate McLouth.

• Wil Myers has been officially moved to the outfield by the Royals. Adjusting for an increase in playing time but a considerable decrease in positional adjustment, he probably comes in close to Thomas Neal in that second list.

• I don’t care what these rankings say: Zelous Wheeler is No. 1 in my heart.



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