This edition of One Night Only totally wasn’t just crying to a Billy Joel song.
(NERD scores in parentheses.)
San Francisco (4) at Colorado (6) | 8:10pm ET
Giants: Tim Lincecum (10)
197.1 IP, 9.62 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, .328 BABIP, 48.5% GB, 9.9% HR/FB, 3.31 xFIP, 4.6 WAR
Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin (8)
125.1 IP, 8.83 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, .301 BABIP, 46.3% GB, 7.6% HR/FB, 3.78 xFIP, 2.9 WAR
• I’m not a smart man, nor do I probably even know what love really is, but I get that this series is an important one. As of Thursday afternoon, here are your respective postseason odds, per Cool Standings. For the Giants of San Francisco: 42.8% (Division), 13.6% (Wild Card), 56.3% (Overall). For the Rockies of Colorado: 3.8% (Division), 3.0% (Wild Card), 6.8% (Overall).
• If not proof, the Rockies’ rather limited chance of making the postseason represents at least a modest case study in the capacity of narrative to create a gap between appearances and reality. My guess is, you ask your average smart, basebally person, and he’ll give Colorado something better than a 10% chance of making the postseason. And not only that, but even knowing that Colorado has only a 6% chance of making playoffs, I’m guessing that same smart, basebally person is still excited about this weekend’s series. The narrative (division rivals, separated by only three games, featuring pretty great pitching matchups) makes the series far more appealing than the numbers would otherwise suggest. Nor am I suggesting at all that this is a bad thing. I’m suggesting we digest this information and use it for good. Like saving puppies, or something. Yeah, something like that.
• Jhoulys Chacin has been better this year than any reasonable person could’ve possibly anticipated. See his strikeout rate up there (8.83 per nine)? That’s a higher mark for him than at any point during his minor league career. CHONE projected him this way before the season: 7.01 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 5.02 FIP. ZiPS said this: 5.46 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9, 4.79 FIP. Conclusion? Computers don’t know even one thing about baseball. It’s a fact!
Florida (7) at Milwaukee (9), 8:10pm ET
• Brewer prospect Mark Rogers makes his first-ever MLB start tonight. Rogers is a former first-rounder (2004) who missed literally all of the 2007 and 08 seasons. Here are his numbers this season from Double-A Huntsville: 111.2 IP, 8.95 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 0.24 HR/9, 3.58 FIP. Unfortunately for Rogers, StatCorner pegged his tRA+ at only 95 — even at Double-A.
Cincinnati (7) at San Diego (10), 10:05pm ET
• It’s sad, and equally true, that righty Chris Young‘s last good season was 2007. He made at least 30 starts each season between 2005 and 2007. In the three years hence, he’s made 34 starts — including only two this season. What’s his contribution likely to be for San Diego’s playoff run? Really, it’s hard to say. He pitched a grand total of 6.1 IP in rehab. He had 4 K and 2 BB. That’s fine, but it’s just not a lot of information.
Is Carson Cistulli the type of man to avoid shameless self-promotion?
No, no, no.
Why I Bring It Up
Because I composed an ode to a couple of this weekend’s bigger football games and fooled Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats into publishing it. (Sucka.)
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.
pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Estimated NERD
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