One Night Only!

This edition of One Night Only totally wasn’t just crying to a Billy Joel song.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

San Francisco (4) at Colorado (6) | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Giants: Tim Lincecum (10)
197.1 IP, 9.62 K/9, 3.28 BB/9, .328 BABIP, 48.5% GB, 9.9% HR/FB, 3.31 xFIP, 4.6 WAR

Rockies: Jhoulys Chacin (8)
125.1 IP, 8.83 K/9, 3.95 BB/9, .301 BABIP, 46.3% GB, 7.6% HR/FB, 3.78 xFIP, 2.9 WAR

Notes
• I’m not a smart man, nor do I probably even know what love really is, but I get that this series is an important one. As of Thursday afternoon, here are your respective postseason odds, per Cool Standings. For the Giants of San Francisco: 42.8% (Division), 13.6% (Wild Card), 56.3% (Overall). For the Rockies of Colorado: 3.8% (Division), 3.0% (Wild Card), 6.8% (Overall).
• If not proof, the Rockies’ rather limited chance of making the postseason represents at least a modest case study in the capacity of narrative to create a gap between appearances and reality. My guess is, you ask your average smart, basebally person, and he’ll give Colorado something better than a 10% chance of making the postseason. And not only that, but even knowing that Colorado has only a 6% chance of making playoffs, I’m guessing that same smart, basebally person is still excited about this weekend’s series. The narrative (division rivals, separated by only three games, featuring pretty great pitching matchups) makes the series far more appealing than the numbers would otherwise suggest. Nor am I suggesting at all that this is a bad thing. I’m suggesting we digest this information and use it for good. Like saving puppies, or something. Yeah, something like that.
• Jhoulys Chacin has been better this year than any reasonable person could’ve possibly anticipated. See his strikeout rate up there (8.83 per nine)? That’s a higher mark for him than at any point during his minor league career. CHONE projected him this way before the season: 7.01 K/9, 4.64 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, 5.02 FIP. ZiPS said this: 5.46 K/9, 4.00 BB/9, 1.02 HR/9, 4.79 FIP. Conclusion? Computers don’t know even one thing about baseball. It’s a fact!

Other Notes
Florida (7) at Milwaukee (9), 8:10pm ET
• Brewer prospect Mark Rogers makes his first-ever MLB start tonight. Rogers is a former first-rounder (2004) who missed literally all of the 2007 and 08 seasons. Here are his numbers this season from Double-A Huntsville: 111.2 IP, 8.95 K/9, 5.56 BB/9, 0.24 HR/9, 3.58 FIP. Unfortunately for Rogers, StatCorner pegged his tRA+ at only 95 — even at Double-A.

Cincinnati (7) at San Diego (10), 10:05pm ET
• It’s sad, and equally true, that righty Chris Young‘s last good season was 2007. He made at least 30 starts each season between 2005 and 2007. In the three years hence, he’s made 34 starts — including only two this season. What’s his contribution likely to be for San Diego’s playoff run? Really, it’s hard to say. He pitched a grand total of 6.1 IP in rehab. He had 4 K and 2 BB. That’s fine, but it’s just not a lot of information.

Pop Quiz
Question
Is Carson Cistulli the type of man to avoid shameless self-promotion?

Answer
No, no, no.

Why I Bring It Up
Because I composed an ode to a couple of this weekend’s bigger football games and fooled Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats into publishing it. (Sucka.)

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Estimated NERD



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Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


Sort by:   newest | oldest | most voted
Hunter
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Hunter
6 years 2 days ago

Joe Blanton of the 5+ ERA has a pitcher nerd score of 7?

Why?

Zach
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Zach
6 years 2 days ago

I suspect it’s because of his nicknames – Kentucky/Tennessee/Country/Big/Innings Eater/Donut Eater Joe bumps him up.

Plus he hit a home run in the world series. That has to be something like +5.

(Really I have no idea.)

Brian Burke
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Brian Burke
6 years 2 days ago

I heard that!

Ace
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Ace
6 years 2 days ago

I’m a Giants fan, and I am the person that thinks they have better than a 10% shot. 1) They’re playing the Giants in Coors Field, which every Giants fan believes is our personal Death Valley 2) They’re playing the Dodgers after that, a team that’s so dead we can smell the formaldehyde up here in the Bay Area. I would not be surprised if the Rockies went 6-0.

Ace
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Ace
6 years 2 days ago

Dola, I recognize the playoff odds – I just have too many miserable “Rock”ober Memories to believe it. ;)

James
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James
6 years 2 days ago

In response to the question, I think Chris Young has a decent chance to make a semi-significant contribution to the Padres postseason push. Both of his remaining starts will be in Petco, which is huge for him since he’s a FB pitcher, and he’s done pretty well this season (although in severly limited appearances).

That being said, I wish they would’ve stuck with Luebke.

I fully expect the Rockies to take 2 of 3 from the Giants, if not a sweep. It’s what they do.

Boh
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Boh
6 years 2 days ago

You have Guthrie pitching, Tillman is pitching tonight for the O’s.

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