- FanGraphs Baseball - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs -

One Night Only: Game Previews for September 20th


Topical, science-y.

Tampa Bay (7) at New York AL (10) | 19:05 ET
A Fact Regarding the Tampa Bay Rays
Entering play Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays are a mere two games behind Boston in the AL Wild Card race.

A Second Fact Regarding the Tampa Bays Rays
Entering play Monday, the Tampa Bay Rays have an 8.9% chance of making the playoffs, per Cool Standings.

In Terms of Yankee Pitching
In terms of Yankee pitching, Ivan Nova (151.1 IP, 102 xFIP-) is pitching for the Yankees.

Regarding Ivan Nova
Per the data from Baseball Info Solutions, Nova’s changeup usage is down from 2010 (10.6% to 4.6%), but his slider usage is up (2.1% to 11.2%).

Regarding Ivan Nova, Part II
Per the data from Pitch F/x, Nova’s changeup usage is only slightly down (9.9% to 7.9 %), but his slider (0.0% to 2.9%) and cutter (0.0% to 2.6%) usage has increased.

Carson Cistulli’s Guess
Carson Cistulli’s guess is that Pitch F/x is classifying Nova’s new slider as sometimes a slider and, other times, a cutter.

Carson Cistulli’s Second Guess
Carson Cistulli’s second guess is frequently (a) directed at his own self and (b) debilitating.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Rays Television.

Two Other Games
Baltimore (2) at Boston (9) | 19:10 ET
In which the Red Sox are like, “I hope Erik Bedard doesn’t break in half today.”

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Red Sox Television.

San Francisco (3) at Los Angeles NL (4) | 22:10 ET
In which Tim Lincecum and Clayton Kershaw you-know-what in front of you-know-who.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Dodgers Television.

Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.5.

The following Game Scores include the new and improved playoff-odds adjustment, which you can learn about in your brain by clicking here.


Away SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP Home Time
Gavin Floyd CHA 6 2 4 4 5 CLE Fausto Carmona 13:05
Ross Detwiler WAS 4 5 2 3 2 PHI Kyle Kendrick 13:05
Dylan Axelrod* CHA 10 2 6 4 7 CLE Zach McAllister* 19:05
Wade Davis TB 2 7 8 10 5 NYA Ivan Nova 19:05
Tom Milone* WAS 8 5 7 3 10 PHI Cliff Lee 19:05
Joel Pineiro LAA 3 5 5 6 4 TOR Brett Cecil 19:07
Randall Delgado ATL 4 5 7 8 9 FL Anibal Sanchez 19:10
Rick VandenHurk* BAL 6 2 7 9 6 BOS Erik Bedard 19:10
Bud Norris HOU 7 4 5 5 7 CIN Homer Bailey 19:10
Shaun Marcum MIL 5 8 4 4 3 CHN Randy Wells 20:05
Brad Penny DET 1 2 5 10 10 KC Luis Mendoza* 20:10
Jason Vargas SEA 3 0 3 0 7 MIN Liam Hendriks 20:10
Mike Pelfrey NYN 2 4 6 3 8 STL Edwin Jackson 20:15
Mat Latos SD 8 5 5 6 5 COL Jhoulys Chacin 20:40
Charlie Morton PIT 4 4 5 9 8 AZ Daniel Hudson 21:40
Derek Holland TEX 7 9 6 1 8 OAK Rich Harden 22:05
Tim Lincecum SF 8 3 8 4 10 LAN Clayton Kershaw 22:10

NERD represents an attempt to anticipate the watchability of a game for the baseballing enthusiast.
To learn more about Pitcher NERD, click here and scroll down a little.
To learn more about latest Team NERD, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.