One Night Only: Game Previews for September 21st


Almost certainly a metaphor.

New York NL (4) at St. Louis (3) | 20:15 ET
What the Deal Is
The deal with this game is that, after winning last night — but also letting the Braves win, too — that the Cardinals are 2.5 games back in the NL Wild Card race.

What That Means to Cool Standings
What that whole thing means to Cool Standings is that the Cardinals have about an 18% chance of making the playoffs.

The Cardinals’ Playoff Chances, A Brief History Of
Looking over the internet records, one finds that St. Louis’s odds of making the playoffs are the highest they’ve been since August 15th, when they (i.e. the playoff odds) were 20%.

The Cardinals’ Playoff Chances in Context
To get a sense of how good the Cardinals’ chances are, consider that the Rays’ — who everyone’s freaking about — consider that their chances of making the postseason are less than 9%.

Other Things People Are Freaking About
All of the things, all of the time.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Mets Television.

Two Other Games
Tampa Bay (7) at New York AL (10) | 13:05 ET
In which AL East titans clash and, just as with the real Titans, are gruesomely slayed by the Olympic gods — i.e. Must-See TV.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Rays Television.

Tampa Bay (7) at New York AL (10) | 19:05 ET
In which the second verse is the same as the first.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Rays Television.

Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.8.

The following Game Scores include the new and improved playoff-odds adjustment, which you can learn about in your brain by clicking here.


Away SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP Home Time
Wandy Rodriguez HOU 5 4 3 5 3 CIN Bronson Arroyo 12:35
James Shields TB 8 7 8 10 4 NYA Phil Hughes 13:05
Randy Wolf MIL 2 8 5 4 9 CHN Matt Garza 14:20
Anthony Bass* SD 7 6 4 6 3 COL Aaron Cook 15:10
Ross Ohlendorf PIT 5 4 4 9 4 AZ Wade Miley 15:40
Mark Buehrle CHA 3 2 4 4 7 CLE Ubaldo Jimenez 19:05
Jeremy Hellickson TB 3 7 8 10 10 NYA CC Sabathia 19:05
John Lannan WAS 4 5 4 3 6 PHI Vance Worley 19:05
Dan Haren LAA 7 5 7 6 7 TOR Dustin McGowan* 19:07
Derek Lowe ATL 6 5 7 8 5 FL Javier Vazquez 19:10
Tommy Hunter BAL 6 2 6 9 7 BOS Josh Beckett 19:10
Max Scherzer DET 8 2 6 10 7 KC Felipe Paulino 20:10
Michael Pineda SEA 10 0 5 0 5 MIN Kevin Slowey 20:10
Chris Schwinden* NYN 7 4 10 3 8 STL Jaime Garcia 20:15
C.J. Wilson TEX 6 9 6 1 8 OAK Brandon McCarthy 22:05
Ryan Vogelsong SF 5 3 5 4 5 LAN Dana Eveland 22:10

NERD represents an attempt to anticipate the watchability of a game for the baseballing enthusiast.
To learn more about Pitcher NERD, click here and scroll down a little.
To learn more about latest Team NERD, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD at discretion of very handsome author.




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.


10 Responses to “One Night Only: Game Previews for September 21st”

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  1. Ryan says:

    Scherzer and Fister will be sharing the duties tonight, for those curious. Scherzer will go the first five.

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  2. Bart says:

    Hellickson/CC does not get a 10 on the NERD scale? Hmm. Perhaps I am not a nerd.

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  3. Yirmiyahu says:

    A Cardinal in the hand is better than two Braves in the Busch?

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  4. Mike B. says:

    The only thing we have to freak out about is the notion of freaking out itself.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. CircleChange11 says:

    Memories often trump percentages.

    In the case of the Red Sox, they have been involved both for and against some of the most improbable events in baseball history.

    So have the Cards, chasing down Philly 50 years ago, the entire 85 postseason (Ozziels 1st career LH HR to win the game, Jack Clark’s HR the following game, the meltdown vs KC), McGee’s HR’s in 82, Tito Landrum, Tom Lawless, losing v ATL up 3-1 in 96, etc.

    In small samples, crazy crap happens. 9 games is a small sample. That’s the fun of it.

    We’re at the point where 1 or 2 games can drastically alter the %’s … And that’s the fun.

    In these situations, it seems to be more comfortable to be the hunter.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. herve houchoua says:

    update pNERD
    …………………………..

    MILEY / ARI

    10 * ….8 * …..7 *…..6*…..7…..5…..today : 4

    hummmmmmmmm !

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. jorgath says:

    Query: What are the Angels chances? They’re only 3.5 games back…

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    • hark says:

      Answer: 8.3%

      They have to hurdle Tampa Bay and Boston to get the Wild Card, and their last three games are against Texas.

      Also, y’know, CoolStandings.com, which Carson specifically mentioned.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. sc2gg says:

    NERD relevant news – Crud. Brett Lawrie took a grounder off his pinky in practice and broke it, he’s done for the last 8 games.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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