One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for June 22nd


A puppet on the hand is equivalent to no specific number in the bush.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. An expanded preview for tonight’s biggest of events: Tampa Bay at Milwaukee.

2. Brief, but no less charming, previews for these games: Toronto at Atlanta, Colorado at Cleveland, and Philadelphia at St. Louis.

3. Yet another experimental design for the day’s slate of games — including, as always, very proprietary Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.

Tampa Bay (5) at Milwaukee (8) | 14:10 ET
Starting Pitchers
Rays: David Price (10)
102.1 IP, 8.27 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 41.6% GB, 3.09 xFIP, 78 xFIP-

Brewers: Shaun Marcum (7)
91.2 IP, 8.25 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 36.3% GB, 3.30 xFIP, 88 xFIP-

Regarding David Price, His xFIP-
David Price’s 78 xFIP- is ninth among 111 qualified pitchers this season — tied with Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander.

Regarding David Price, His xFIP-, Part II
David Price’s xFIP last season was a more pedestrian 92 — tied for 29th overall (out of 92 qualifiers) with pitchers like Scott Baker, Jason Hammel, and Carl Pavano.

What’s Different
While Price’s strikeout and ground-ball rates in 2011 are almost identical to what he posted in 2010, his walk rate is significantly lower, from last year’s mark of 3.41 BB/9 (blerg city!) to 1.76 BB/9 (say wha, player?).

Things That Aren’t Reasons for the Drop in David Price’s Walks
None of these things is the reason for David Price’s drop in walks:

1. First-Pitch Strike Percentage
2. Zone Percentage
3. Swing Percentage

How I Know That
Because his numbers are down this season in all three of those categories.

A Thing That Might Be the Reason for the Drop in Walks
Command — as in, he’s working more effectively withing the zone.

Who Says So
Tommy Rancel, like 12 days ago.

Regarding David Price, Last Thing
David Price has the third-highest average fastball velocity (94.7 mph) among qualifiers and the very highest among lefty qualifiers.

What You’d Be Totally Justified in Saying About Said Fastball
“That’s a spicy meatball!”

Three Other Games
Toronto (8) at Atlanta (7) | 13:05 ET
Brandon Beachy (8) returns from the DL — his first major-league appearance since May 13th.

Colorado (7) at Cleveland (10) | 19:05 ET
Charlie Blackmon Watch!

Yesterday: 4 PA, 2 FO, 2 GO.

Season: 54 PA, .327/.352/.346 (.347 BABIP) .338 wOBA, 104 wRC+, 3.7% BB, 5.8% K.

Philadelphia (3) at St. Louis (5) | 20:15 ET
Cliff Lee, much like a 1979 film co-starring Dudley Moore and Bo Derek, is a 10.

Unlike said film, Lee’s starts contain almost nothing in the way of people falling down embankments.

Regard:

Also Playing
The last two editions of One Night Only have both featured an attempt on the part of the author to create a more user-friendly design for the daily slate of games. The present edition of One Night Only presents a third — and hopefully best — option.

Away SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP Home Time
Zach Britton BAL 5 4 4 3 2 PIT Kevin Correia 12:35
Freddy Garcia NYA 3 7 5 7 6 CIN Mike Leake 12:35
Jo-Jo Reyes TOR 3 8 6 7 8 ATL Brandon Beachy 13:05
Clayton Richard SD 2 5 3 7 2 BOS John Lackey 13:35
David Price TB 10 5 8 8 7 MIL Shaun Marcum 14:10
Rick Porcello DET 4 2 4 2 5 LAN Ted Lilly 15:10
Jason Hammel COL 3 7 6 10 6 CLE Josh Tomlin 19:05
Erik Bedard SEA 6 3 5 6 3 WAS John Lannan 19:10
Joel Pineiro LAA 2 5 4 3 5 FL Brian Sanches* 19:10
Brian Gordon* NYA 5 7 6 7 6 CIN Johnny Cueto 19:10
Gio Gonzalez OAK 6 2 6 5 8 NYN R.A. Dickey 19:10
Brett Myers HOU 4 5 5 8 4 TEX Colby Lewis 20:05
Ian Kennedy AZ 6 10 6 10 4 KC Jeff Francis 20:10
Doug Davis CHN 2 0 4 1 8 CHA Jake Peavy 20:10
Cliff Lee PHI 10 3 7 5 5 STL Kyle Lohse 20:15
Nick Blackburn MIN 4 0 4 4 6 SF Ryan Vogelsong 20:15

NERD represents an attempt to anticipate the watchability of a game for the baseballing enthusiast.
To learn more about Pitcher NERD, click here and scroll down a little.
To learn more about Team NERD, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD of 5 (or 10 for debuts)
Pitching probables and game times from MLB.com.



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