One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for June 22nd

A puppet on the hand is equivalent to no specific number in the bush.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. An expanded preview for tonight’s biggest of events: Tampa Bay at Milwaukee.

2. Brief, but no less charming, previews for these games: Toronto at Atlanta, Colorado at Cleveland, and Philadelphia at St. Louis.

3. Yet another experimental design for the day’s slate of games — including, as always, very proprietary Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.

Tampa Bay (5) at Milwaukee (8) | 14:10 ET
Starting Pitchers
Rays: David Price (10)
102.1 IP, 8.27 K/9, 1.76 BB/9, 41.6% GB, 3.09 xFIP, 78 xFIP-

Brewers: Shaun Marcum (7)
91.2 IP, 8.25 K/9, 2.36 BB/9, 36.3% GB, 3.30 xFIP, 88 xFIP-

Regarding David Price, His xFIP-
David Price’s 78 xFIP- is ninth among 111 qualified pitchers this season — tied with Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander.

Regarding David Price, His xFIP-, Part II
David Price’s xFIP last season was a more pedestrian 92 — tied for 29th overall (out of 92 qualifiers) with pitchers like Scott Baker, Jason Hammel, and Carl Pavano.

What’s Different
While Price’s strikeout and ground-ball rates in 2011 are almost identical to what he posted in 2010, his walk rate is significantly lower, from last year’s mark of 3.41 BB/9 (blerg city!) to 1.76 BB/9 (say wha, player?).

Things That Aren’t Reasons for the Drop in David Price’s Walks
None of these things is the reason for David Price’s drop in walks:

1. First-Pitch Strike Percentage
2. Zone Percentage
3. Swing Percentage

How I Know That
Because his numbers are down this season in all three of those categories.

A Thing That Might Be the Reason for the Drop in Walks
Command — as in, he’s working more effectively withing the zone.

Who Says So
Tommy Rancel, like 12 days ago.

Regarding David Price, Last Thing
David Price has the third-highest average fastball velocity (94.7 mph) among qualifiers and the very highest among lefty qualifiers.

What You’d Be Totally Justified in Saying About Said Fastball
“That’s a spicy meatball!”

Three Other Games
Toronto (8) at Atlanta (7) | 13:05 ET
Brandon Beachy (8) returns from the DL — his first major-league appearance since May 13th.

Colorado (7) at Cleveland (10) | 19:05 ET
Charlie Blackmon Watch!

Yesterday: 4 PA, 2 FO, 2 GO.

Season: 54 PA, .327/.352/.346 (.347 BABIP) .338 wOBA, 104 wRC+, 3.7% BB, 5.8% K.

Philadelphia (3) at St. Louis (5) | 20:15 ET
Cliff Lee, much like a 1979 film co-starring Dudley Moore and Bo Derek, is a 10.

Unlike said film, Lee’s starts contain almost nothing in the way of people falling down embankments.


Also Playing
The last two editions of One Night Only have both featured an attempt on the part of the author to create a more user-friendly design for the daily slate of games. The present edition of One Night Only presents a third — and hopefully best — option.

Away SP Tm. Gm. Tm. SP Home Time
Zach Britton BAL 5 4 4 3 2 PIT Kevin Correia 12:35
Freddy Garcia NYA 3 7 5 7 6 CIN Mike Leake 12:35
Jo-Jo Reyes TOR 3 8 6 7 8 ATL Brandon Beachy 13:05
Clayton Richard SD 2 5 3 7 2 BOS John Lackey 13:35
David Price TB 10 5 8 8 7 MIL Shaun Marcum 14:10
Rick Porcello DET 4 2 4 2 5 LAN Ted Lilly 15:10
Jason Hammel COL 3 7 6 10 6 CLE Josh Tomlin 19:05
Erik Bedard SEA 6 3 5 6 3 WAS John Lannan 19:10
Joel Pineiro LAA 2 5 4 3 5 FL Brian Sanches* 19:10
Brian Gordon* NYA 5 7 6 7 6 CIN Johnny Cueto 19:10
Gio Gonzalez OAK 6 2 6 5 8 NYN R.A. Dickey 19:10
Brett Myers HOU 4 5 5 8 4 TEX Colby Lewis 20:05
Ian Kennedy AZ 6 10 6 10 4 KC Jeff Francis 20:10
Doug Davis CHN 2 0 4 1 8 CHA Jake Peavy 20:10
Cliff Lee PHI 10 3 7 5 5 STL Kyle Lohse 20:15
Nick Blackburn MIN 4 0 4 4 6 SF Ryan Vogelsong 20:15

NERD represents an attempt to anticipate the watchability of a game for the baseballing enthusiast.
To learn more about Pitcher NERD, click here and scroll down a little.
To learn more about Team NERD, click here.
To learn how Game NERD Scores are calculated, click here.
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD of 5 (or 10 for debuts)
Pitching probables and game times from

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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.

14 Responses to “One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for June 22nd”

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  1. CSJ says:

    Here’s a thought: How about a graded color scale for game nerd score? White = 0, Light Green = 5, Dark Green = 10. Something like that.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • You have considerably more faith in my coding abilities than I do!

      To do the shading, I’d almost definitely have to revert back to a mere image — from the table format here, I mean. That’s an option, certainly, but I like being able to click on the pitchers’ names.

      I’m hoping sortable tables will work out. That’s for people more important than me to decide.

      Much. More. Important.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Tim Nic. says:

    Agreed; White text was tough to read but the format is easier to read for each NERD catagory. Also, cliffhanger on the Charlie Blackmon watch- care to update it, por favor?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. jorgath says:

    Wait, Brian Sanches is starting a game? I mean, I know he’s done it before, but what exactly is the reasoning here?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Yirmiyahu says:

    Carson, the new NERD chart is much cleaner and understandable.

    However, for aesthetic purposes, I was a big fan of all the crazy squiggly arrows. Quite a difficult maze to figure out where they led, but it was quite purty.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Eminor3rd says:

    The table is much improved. Sortability will make it very powerful, indeed.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Eminor3rd says:

    Also, here’s to hoping Peavy finally pitches without hurting himself. He’s been excellent in his limited action this year.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Steve says:

    I love how the D-Backs (10) and Royals (10) are facing each other, as are the Cubs (0) and White Sox (1.)

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • It would’ve actually probably made sense to feature the ARI-KC game — at least in one of the smaller capsules below.

      Embarrassingly, I haven’t actually seen Moustakas and Hosmer play together yet.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. SP Ver2.0 says:

    NERD doesn’t really take into account big rivalries like Sox/Cubs does it?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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