One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for May 3rd


By definition, every shot of William Howard Taft is a wide-angle shot.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for two games: San Francisco at New York (NL) and Colorado at Atlanta.

2. Smaller, but still entirely luminous, reports on three more games: Milwaukee at Atlanta, Florida at St. Louis, and Cleveland at Oakland.

3. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games regardless of race, creed, color, gender, or if it involves the Astros.

San Francisco (3) at New York Nationals (2) | 19:10 ET
Starting Pitchers
Giants: Ryan Vogelsong (N/A)
Start on 4/28: 5.2 IP, 24 TBF, 8 K, 2 BB, 7 GB on 14 batted-balls (50.0 GB%)

Mets: R.A. Dickey (7)
33.0 IP, 6.00 K/9, 4.09 BB/9, .321 BABIP, 49.5 GB%, 6.1% HR/FB, 4.27 xFIP, 112 xFIP

Notes
• To get a sense of the Ryan Vogelsong Journey, observe this: there are two full years between updates on his RotoWire player page.
• That’s mostly because he spent 2007-09 playing with the Hanshin Tigers and Orix Buffaloes in Japan.
• Returning to associated baseball last season, however, Vogelsong had 110 strikeouts in 95.1 innings.
• Now he’s posted only excellent numbers this season in 20.2 IP between Triple-A and the majors.
• Conclusion: let’s just all sit around and watch the hell out of Ryan Vogelsong.

If I Had My Druthers
• We could seriously all sit around in one big room and watch this game with Ryan Vogelsong in it.
• Except Steve, I mean.
• Frigging Steve.

Colorado (9) at Arizona (10) | 21:40 ET
Starting Pitchers
Rockies: Jorge de la Rosa (7)
31.0 IP, 8.42 K/9, 2.90 BB/9, .224 BABIP, 43.2 GB%, 3.1% HR/FB, 3.38 xFIP, 89 xFIP-

Diamondbacks: Joe Saunders (2)
27.1 IP, 5.93 K/9, 4.61 BB/9, .365 BABIP, 38.6 GB%, 12.1% HR/FB, 4.61 xFIP, 121 xFIP-

Some Notes on the Uses of the Minus Stats
• Over the last four seasons (starting with 2008), Jorge de la Rosa has posted these xFIPs: 4.01, 3.71, 3.65, and 3.38.
• Now here are his xFIP-s (pronounced “Ex-Fip Minuses”) over that same span: 93, 87, 91, 89.
• This is instructive: looking merely at the raw numbers, one would assume that de la Rosa has improved constantly.
• Yet, because the run environment of the league as a whole has decreased, it’s actually the case that de la Rosa has been basically the same pitcher relative to the rest of the league.
• This concludes my report on FanGraphs’ Minus Stats.

If I Had My Druthers
• I could’ve done reports in school on FanGraphs’ stats.
• Instead of on dumb things like Nevada and William Howard Taft, I mean.
• Theory: adult life is the slow and purposeful forgetting of all things William Howard Taft.

Three Other Games
Milwaukee (8) at Atlanta (4) | 19:10 ET
• Until Jason Heyward is allowed to take every at-bat for the Braves, baseball will remain imperfect.

Florida (6) at St. Louis (8) | 20:15 ET
• With the recent DL-ing of Donnie Murphy, now manager Edwin Rodriguez almost definitely will play Scott Cousins or the recently promoted Bryan Petersen in left — i.e. players who are more interesting than Emilio Bonifacio.

Cleveland (10) at Oakland (4) | 22:05 ET
• How many NERD points ought a game in Oakland be penalized for their stadium, which we might say is not altogether pleasing to look at?

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

pNERD = Pitcher NERD
tNERD = Team NERD
Game = Time and Average NERD for Game
* = Fewer than 20 IP, NERD of 5 (or 10 for debuts)




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Carson Cistulli has just published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.


19 Responses to “One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for May 3rd”

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  1. AustinRHL says:

    The game with the highest NERD score today is one in which Joe Saunders is pitching? That can’t possibly be right!

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  2. Kroot says:

    Thank you for the good work.

    For the stadiums I don’t know if there needs to be a penalty — or it’s at least complicated. I mean, Oakland is a pretty cool city, do we give bonus points for that? Or, some teams have better marketing campaigns, should we try to quantify nicknames, historical narratives, ect. ? I think people do a mental check based on these things that might not be as easy to quantify as what you’ve done so far.

    At the same time a lot of people probably thought tNERD or pNERD described subjective experiences that couldn’t be quantified so I’ll be curious to see what happens.

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    • SFSUGatorAlum says:

      Oakland is a pretty cool city??? Temperature wise, I guess, but Oakland has not been a cool city since the (insert a significant historical event).

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    • FanGraphs Supporting Member

      Fair points all around.

      I suppose my main concern is with how the stadium looks on television — i.e. where I’m consuming most of my baseball. Accordingly, three (or maybe more) variables concern me, specifically: attendance (as percentage of capacity), the actual design of the stadium, and the location/quality of the various cameras used.

      Oakland suffers by those first two criteria, certainly. Attendance is generally poor and the stadium — with the huge center-field bleacher and large swath of foul ground — is unappealing to the eye.

      Some of the things you mention — like nickname, for example, and I might add uniform design — are also relevant to the experience. For Oakland, on the whole, I’m guessing it’s a net negative. Or, I feel strongly that it’s a net negative, and I’m curious to find out exactly WHY.

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      • Todd says:

        I would think that the uniforms would trump the stadiums faults. I also listen to the A’s radio broadcast while watching, which you may need to start factoring in. Same with the Royals.

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      • matt w says:

        Nicknames have been quantified (if ranking them from number 1 to number something else counts as quantifying them, and it DOES), and they do not help the Athletics at all.

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    • Matt says:

      Oakland is a horrible city…have you ever been there?!?

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  3. matt says:

    Why would we want to forget all things William Howard Taft? He started the tradition of the president throwing a first pitch, has the apocryphal story of creating the 7th inning stretch simply by standing up, and is the only president who also served on the Supreme Court. Taft!

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    • Dan in Philly says:

      Dare I say it? Taft is looking a lot more svelt these days, comparitely speaking. In 1908, he was grossly, comically fat. Nowadays Chris Christie could outeat him easily. Times change, I guess…

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  4. herve houchoua says:

    PNERD / players for this night
    ……………………………………..

    HAMELS (phi) ( pNERD9) last match : 4/27 @ arizona = -3 ( my valuation )

    A SANCHEZ ( flo ) (8 ) last match : 4 / 27 h lad = -2
    HANSON ( atl ) ( 8 ) last match : 4 /27 @ sdp = -2.5
    E JACKSON ( cws ) ( 8 ) last match : 4/28 and 4/23…..6 + 7 er !!! ????
    SABATHIA ( nyy ) ( 8 ) last match : 4/28 h cws = -5

    HAREN ( laa ) (7) last match : 4/27 h oak = -7.5
    DICKEY ( nym ) ( 7 ) last match : 4 / 27 @ wsh = -2.5
    DE LA ROSA ( col ) ( 7 ) last match : 4/26 @ cubs = 0
    LATOS ( sdp ) ( 7 ) last match : 4 /27 h atl = – 4

    ………………………………………………………………………..

    my hot pitchers for the night :

    DE LA ROSA ( col ) / A SANCHEZ ( flo ) / DICKEY ( nym) / HANSON ( atl ) / HAMELS ( phi )

    don t forget : LEAKE ( cin ) ( pNERD 7 ) last match = -1

    …………………………………………………………………………

    sorry , my english language is not good , i m french .

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    • Kroot says:

      Monsieur, merci pour ce travail très intéressant. And, for English, no worries. You write very well (et sinon vous pouvez toujours écrire en français car il y a beaucoup de participant qui parlent cette langue).

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  5. herve houchoua says:

    The day after : 3 mai

    WASH NATS 1 @ PHILLIES 4

    ………………………………………………
    C.HAMELS pNERD : 9

    win vs l. hernandez ( pNERD : 1 )

    Ip 9 ……………………………….hernandez ip 6.1 ( -3 )
    h 5…………………………………hernandez h 10 ( -4 )
    er 1………………………………..hernandez er 4
    bb 1 so 6…………………………hernandez bb 4 so 3 ( -5 )
    go ( :2) + fo =8.5 / h 5 (-3.5)………hernandez go / fo =7.5 / h 10

    total = -3.5…………………………hernandez = -12

    my result : HAMELS W – HERNANDEZ L

    my result : WEAVER W – BUCHHOLZ L

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  6. herve houchoua says:

    The day after : may 3rd

    MIN TWINS 1 @ CHICAGO WHITE SOX 0

    …………………………………………………
    ED JACKSON : pNERD 8

    loose vs liriano ( pNERD 2 )

    ip 8 (-1) ……………………………….liriano ip 9
    h 6……………………………………….liriano h 0
    er 1………………………………………liriano er 0
    bb 1 so 2 ……………………………..liriano bb 6 so 2 !!!!!
    go (:2) + fo = 9 / h 6 (-3)…………liriano go/fo = 9.5 / h 0 ( -9.5)

    total = -4………………………………liriano = -9.5

    my result : ED JACKSON W – LIRIANO L……………..(it s a projection for the future !)

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  7. herve houchoua says:

    the day after : may 3rd

    FLORIDA MARLINS 5 @ STL CARDS 7

    ……………………………………………..
    A SANCHEZ : pNERD 8

    draw vs mc clellan ( p NERD 2)

    4.1 IP = statistiques non valables

    it s a disappointment for the “florida” pitcher

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  8. herve houchoua says:

    the day after : may 3rd

    LA ANGELS 3 @ BOSTON RED SOX 7

    ……………………………………………
    HAREN : pNERD 7

    loose vs lester ( pNERD 6 )

    ip 7…………………………..lester ip 7
    h 9 ( -2 ) …………………..lester h 6
    er 4 ………………………….lester er 1
    bb 0 so 8……………………lester bb 1 so 11
    go ( :2) / + fo = 7/h 9…..lester go/fo = 5/h6

    total : -2……………………lester 0

    my result : LESTER W / HAREN L

    comment : very good game of 2 pitchers !

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  9. herve houchoua says:

    the day after : may 3rd

    PIT PIRATES 5 @ SAN DIEGO PADRES 6

    …………………………………………
    LATOS : pNERD 7

    draw vs karstens ( pNERD 5 )

    ip 6……………………..karstens ip 4 (-2)
    h 5………………………karstens h 6 ( -2 )
    er 2……………………..karstens er 3
    bb 2 so 5………………karstens bb 2 so 4 ( -1 )
    go (:2)/ + fo : 8/h5 ( -3)………….karstens go/fo = 5.5/h6

    total : -3……………………karstens : -5

    my result : LATOS W / KARSTENS L

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  10. herve houchoua says:

    The day after : may 3rd

    COLORADO 3 @ ARIZONA 4
    ………………………………………
    DE LA ROSA : pNERD 7

    draw vs saunders ( pNERD 2 )

    ip 6 ………………………………..saunders ip 6
    h 7 ( -1 )…………………………..saunders h 6
    er 3………………………………….saunders er 3
    bb 2 so 6…………………………..saunders bb 3 so 2 ( -4 )
    go (:2)/+ fo : 7.5/h 7 ( -0.5)………saunders go/fo = 9.5/h6 ( -3.5 )

    total : -1.5……………………….saunders : -7.5

    my result : DE LA ROSA W / SAUNDERS L

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  11. herve houchoua says:

    the day after : may 3rd

    HOUSTON 10 @ CIN REDS 4

    …………………………………….

    LEAKE : pNERD 7

    loose vs happ ( pNERD 0 )

    3.2 IP = statistiques non valables

    it s a disappointment for the “reds” pitcher

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  12. herve houchoua says:

    the day after : may 3rd

    SF GIANTS 7 @ NY METS 6

    ………………………………….

    DICKEY : pNERD 7

    draw vs vogelsong ( pNERD 5)

    ip 6……………………………….vogelsong 4 ip ( -2 )
    h 7 ( -1)…………………………vogelsong h 5 ( -1)
    er 6……………………………….vogelsong er 5
    bb 1 so 1 ( -6 )………………..vogelsong bb 4 so 2 ( -7 )
    go (:2)/+fo:10/h 7 ( -3)……..vogelsong go/fo = 6 / h 5 ( -1 )

    total : -10………………………..vogelsong : -11

    my result : DICKEY W / VOGELSONG L

    penalités ( 2 pitchers ) : -21 , it s a bad record…………

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