Opposite Paths to the Same End
The Mets and Cardinals played 20 innings that saw Tony La Russa use every position player available and a majority of his pitchers as well. He sent ten different players to the mound. While he was pulling relievers after an inning of use, Mets manager Jerry Manuel had four consecutive relievers toss at least two innings, enabling him to keep bodies in reserve.
At least in theory, because it doesn’t really matter if you keep a couple relievers back in case you do end up playing 20 innings when you have those relievers constantly warming up. See, those pitches they throw out in the bullpen actually tax their arms too, even though they don’t show up in the box score. Quoting from Anthony DiComo’s post game report,
Four Mets pitchers threw at least two innings of relief, allowing Manuel to save closer Francisco Rodriguez for a save situation. That did not occur until the 19th… Rodriguez, who had warmed up every inning from the eighth through the 19th, estimated that he threw more than 100 pitches in the bullpen. And he admitted to being somewhat gassed by the time Manuel finally called his name.
Amazing, just plain amazing. Forget the idiocy of holding your supposed best reliever back for a possible future lead for a moment and just soak in the stupidity on the part of whoever had Rodriguez up and throwing for 11 consecutive innings.
On the plus side, I think he’s stretched out now so the Mets can go ahead and get Oliver Perez out of the rotation.
Did you even watch Ollie last start?
He was being facetious about making K-Rod a closer and he was looking at more than the small sample size of Ollie’s last start to determine that Ollie needs to be replaced in the rotation.
Ollie doesn’t need to be replaced. It’s well documented he is good every other year, and he was bad last year. You’ll see. ;)
Using that logic, Livan for Cy Young!!! I mean…did you see his last start?!?
I meant “making K-Rod a starter” not a closer.
the idiocy of both managers last night was truly breathtaking. Using the Hit and Run in extra innings with Pujols batting, which led to a CS. Bunting against Joe Mather, a position player, who was pitching. That game was a blueprint on how to get fired as a manager. Epic.
I don’t see why this is so slammed. In addition to being very likely to make an extra base hit, Pujols is also a guy you can generally rely upon to make hard contact. He whiffed on the ball. If he makes contact, the point is moot. And he’s more than likely to make contact.
So if you run Ludwick in a hit and run, you have the following possibilities:
1. Pujols hits a HR and you score
2. Pujols gets a hit and you score
3. Pujols gets a hit and you don’t score
4. Pujols hits a into an out, Ludwick advances
5. Pujols hits into an out, and the runner returns (+1 out)
6. Pujols hits a foul, and the runner resets (+1 strike)
7. Pujols hits into a double play
8. Pujols whiffs and Ludwick steals successfully
9. Pujols whiffs and Ludwick is caught stealing
Cases 1 and 6 (HR and foul) are irrelevant and you can take them out.
Pujols makes contact with 86% of the pitches he swings at and Ludwick has an awful 60% success rate stealing. Pujols has about a 0.317 BABIP + an 8 HR% when he makes contact and its not a foul.
Looking at the differences in each case:
2. Non-HR Hit and score: Sending the runner means a score on almost any hit by Pujols. Not sending him probably means only a score on an XBH. 55% of Pujols’ hits are singles. 23% are doubles or triples.
Increased chance of scoring on play: 0.86*0.55*0.317 = +15%
3. Hit and no score: The converse of #2. Sending the runner decreases this by 15%. No score = – 15%
4. Pujols makes an out and advances Ludwick. Not sure what the numbers are, but I’d estimate that this happens mainly on GB (0.4 of BABIP for Pujols). I’d imagine this subtracts from GB double plays and not advancing. Let’s say 80% of GB let a hit and run guy get to 2B?
0.86*0.4*(1-0.317) *0.8 = +18.5%
5. Pujols makes an out without advancing Ludwick. Let’s just say this takes all the inverse, so we don’t have to deal with double plays. This is more conservative than subtracting out of double plays, as far as total worth. -18.5%
7. Sending the runner will generally reduce double play chances. GB double plays go way down, LD and FB ones go slightly up. Probably a net positive in this case, but let’s assume it’s a wash.
8. Ludwick steals, no contact: Assuming a horrid 60% success rate, this inceases the chance of advancing by 0.14*0.6 = +0.084.
9. Ludwick thrown out: 0.14*0.4 = +0.056
So what to we have in total by sending the runner:
+15% chance of scoring on the play
+18.5% chance of advancing the runner on an out
+ 8.4% chance of advancing runner on SB
+ 5.6% chance of an out
So you’re balancing +15% chance of scoring and +27% chance of advancing against a 5% chance of having an out? That honestly doesn’t seem too bad for me. In fact, it looks pretty good. Sure, a straight steal would be bad. But a hit and run, due to Pujols’ amazing contact rate, actually looks quite good. And it means you’re relying more upon Pujols to get the runner in, rather than less.
So what is the problem again?
One point: Pujols has an 86% contact rate partially because he’s the one picking which pitches to swing at. In this case, it was Tony La Russa picking whether to swing at this pitch. I imagine Pujols has a much worse contact rate under those conditions.
It might be worse, though it’s not like the pitch he got on that AB was unhittable. Considering Pujols out of zone contact rate is still 65% (and over 70% for the last 3 years), I think that’s a ball that he would more often than not make solid contact with. Pujols’ swinging strike percentage total is around 5% and I’m willing to bet that he runs into hit and run situations throughout the course of the season with some regularity.
In any event, this puts a huge hole into a “Oh, fire that man!” dialog about this. The whole argument behind that is that Pujols is likely to get an extra base hit, so why send the runner. But the counter to that is that Pujols is likely to make contact, so why not send the runner? Unless you can show that a double play is more likely as a result, It seems like to me that if you only need the one run that it’s perfectly reasonable to send the runner.
Pretty sure holding K-Rod back was the right move considering they won.
What is the worst that happens by holding K-Rod back? Someone else blows it in the 16th inning? The mets are going to lose 90 games this year regradless. Who cares?
You’re pretty sure it was the right move, because they won.
Let me direct you towards the fallacy of correlation = causation.
You’re right Philkid3. I was being cheeky. It was the right move period, and that they won was an added bonus.
Changing the subject a little bit, Philkid, I’m curious, but do you actually think you can ever legitimately prove causation? David Hume has been strong arguments against that still hold up in contemporary philosophy of science and epistemology. If so, I am curious how you think you can prove that anything is causation, rather than mere correlation. Care to share? (Probably would help to precisely define what you mean by causation as well – necessary connection, sufficient reason, etc).
should read “David Hume has made strong arguments against the ability to prove causation”
If that’s the case, that there’s no point in using K-Rod b/c the Mets are going to lose 90 anyway, why don’t they trade K-Rod for something valuable? He’s on the roster for a reason and is the Mets’ best reliever. He should have been in the game long before the 19th. There is absolutely no excuse to lose an extra inning game without your best reliever ever entering the game and if La Russa hadn’t botched the game so badly himself, that’s exactly what would have happened.
They’re paying him too much to get good trade value, clearly. I will admit I was shocked to not see him in the game earlier though. Seemed like there were some cases where he could have been important.
Right, he’s the Mets best reliever. No reason to use him in the 15th inning in a game they are not winning. Stupid to bother preserving a tie in that situation. Either lose the game with a lesser reliever or wait until you have the lead or absolutely no choice, and then go to K-Rod.
Also, I assumed that Manuel was waiting until the Cards ran out of pitchers- at which point they would have maximum trading leverage to flip K-Rod for some Cardinals prospects.
“Look, I know your bullpen is empty. K-Rod is right here. For the right price, he can be yours next innings. Limited time offer.”
Trading K-Rod for an MLB top 10 prospect would be a great move if Omar can pull it off. Will never happen, of course, so there’s no real reason to trade him.
Trading K-Rod for a top 10 prospect is ridiculous. K-Rod’s overpaid anyway; if anything, he’d need to be salary-dumped to get rid of him. The Mets should trade him (quite literally) for nothing. With that contract in tow, he’s not worth any more than that.
What would be the point of trading K-Rod for nothing? Nobody is going to take his salary. That’s idiotic.
Wow….last night’s game was just pure idiocy. Both of those managers deserve to be fired.
Who would you hire to manage the Cardinals?
“Pretty sure holding K-Rod back was the right move considering they won.”
This logic is so ridiculous. By this measure, everything Jerry Manuel did yesterday was 100% correct because the Mets won. Obviously that’s not true. C’mon man.
They didn’t win because they held K-Rod back. They won because the Cardinals made position players pitch.
I think the Mets won because Ludwick was on LSD during the game. His caught stealing and prior base running gaff were just astounding.
Repeat after me: Larussa was managing for October. His team will be there. Manuel was managing to have a job when he returns home on Monday.
Anyone who’s going to judge Larussa’s entire track record of success in STL and elsewhere, on one game in April, really doesn’t know all that much about baseball. Awful managing? Yeah. Big deal. His team is going to run away with that division and they know it.
Manuel on the other hand should be fired, along with Minaya and his staff. Now those guys really are clueless.
This is coming from a Mets fan mind you.
The caught stealing was obviously a blown hit-and-run so that call wasn’t Ludwick’s, it was La Russa’s. There’s no excuse for the other base running gaffe, however.
What track record is that? His track record of winning .35% more games than he’s lost??? This guy is a joke and is/was a key cog in destroying the game of baseball by letting his players “juice up” and turning a blind eye to it. He needs to go. It may not even be worth putting up with this guy to keep the “real genius” Dave Duncan around. This guy’s notoriety is a farce. a fleecing of baseball. his name is all over the Mitchell report and should have been called to the stand himself, but since Selig is such a joke as well, that would never happen. Bottom line, fire the guy.
my last message was for 3fingersbrown
“Anyone who’s going to judge Larussa’s entire track record of success in STL and elsewhere, on one game in April, really doesn’t know all that much about baseball. Awful managing? Yeah. Big deal. His team is going to run away with that division and they know it.”
Agree with this. Anyone saying Larussa should be fired based on one game in an entire career is retarded.
“This logic is so ridiculous. By this measure, everything Jerry Manuel did yesterday was 100% correct because the Mets won. Obviously that’s not true. C’mon man.”
Hahaha, you’re right man. As I said above, I was being cheeky. It was the right move because it was the right move. The fact that they won it was just a nice bonus. Well, it’s the only thing that matters, but yes, it’s not necessarily because Manuel did the right thing.
There’s nothing “right” about having a reliever warm up for that long, especially if you’re doing it solely because you’re catering to a statistic.
It’s not about catering to a statistic. A tie game that the Mets probably weren’t going to win in that was in the 12th, 14th, or 16th inning is not high leverage, I don’t care how many men are on base. You lose the game, or you wait until you have a lead.
Actually a tie game in the last or potentially last inning is about as high leverage as it gets. Much more so than a 3-run lead that K-rod is automatically brought in to protect in the 9th inning.
There was never a blown save that I enjoyed watching more than the one last night.
Another absolutely idiotic move is to pitch Pelfrey in the 20th after throwing a 7 inning shutout 2 days earlier.
Who do you suggest they use instead? A spent K-Rod who has already thrown 2, and was warming up for 11?
I’d have went with a position player, like St Louis, rather than putting one of my starting pitchers in jeopardy. If I did go with a starting pitcher, it certainly wouldn’t have been someone who pitched so recently.
I think doing what you would have done instead of what Manuel did would have been an absolutely idiotic move. Good try though.
Too bad the Cardinals don’t still have Rick Ankiel. That would have been interesting…
I just don’t get risking the next several games with your pitching staff just to win that one game, and aside from the games the possible injuries to arms. One out of 162. If it gets to be the 12th inning or so, throw a remaining middle reliever out there and that’s it- the team either wins or loses based on him. And thereby save the rest. If you are playing the same team the next day then you have a bullpen advantage in that next one.
the Mets have LaRussa’d extra inning games in a similar fashion in the past (well, maybe not by using position players…but they’ve “given up” so to speak) only to miss the playoffs by “One out of 162″
Of course, their team is terrible this year and it probably would have been a better idea to not risk injuring Pelfrey and KRod for this game.
He warmed up for 11 innings? That’s ridiculous
I just don’t get holding back your closer in an extra inning game until you get a lead –
#1 – Your team could put up 4-5 runs and not need a ‘closer’.
#2 – For the closer to be ready when you get a lead, he has to constantly warm up each inning – like what happened to KRod. Now, who closes today for the Mets? I doubt its KRod.
#3 – Isn’t it better to pitch your closer two innings, then to have him throw 100 warm-up pitches? Might as well have those pitches count for something.
#4 – How can you lose the game without even putting your best reliever out there? The Mets lost a game last week when the 20 yr old Mejia gave up a HR in extra innings with KRod resting comfortably in the pen. How is that good strategy? That’s like keeping David Wright on the bench until you get a runner to third base.
Idiotic. Both managers were horrid, and neither team really deserved to win that game.
#2 Pelfrey, obviously. It’s not like he’s doing anything else on these days between starts.
I just don’t get holding back your closer in an extra inning game until you get a lead –
#1 – Your team could put up 4-5 runs and not need a ‘closer’.
Do you know what the hell team you are talking about???
Please. They aren’t putting up 4-5 runs. Manuel made the right move with K-Rod whether you like it or not.
“Manuel made the right move with K-Rod whether you like it or not.”
Warming up for 11 INNINGS is the right move?
No, waiting until he did to bring K-Rod in was the right move. I do not pretend to know the exact best time to warm a guy up in the scenario is, however. So, at worst, Manuel’s mistake was warming K-Rod up way too early, and perhaps should have just warmed him up right before. I don’t know how much time K-Rod needs to be effective, however.
Warming up a pitcher for 11 innings is pretty dumb esp. the the way baseball does it. This is across the boards…a non contact sport with rampant chronic overuse injuries which despite their attempts to modernize training methods hasn’t improved one iota. Lame my favorite sport is an embarassment to modern sports science and athletic training.
Poundedclown – So what is the best way to warm up a relief pitcher at the last minute in your opinion?
LaRussa’s strategy was playing for the long haul of the season. I don’t agree with a lot of his moves in that game, but I recognize that some of his earlier substitutions left him handcuffed later in the game. I personally would have pinch hit for Motte with Wainwright in the first bases-loaded-two-outs situation because Hawksworth was still in the pen. I agree with TLR leaving Hawk in to bat for the second bases-loaded-two-outs situation because the pen was empty and Hawk still had another inning in him. The small (I’d wager 10%) increase in probability of winning the game then and there has to be weighed against the greatly increased probability of falling very far behind next inning when you have to put a non-pitcher on the mound. We don’t have any predictive numbers for what happens when you throw a position player on the mound in a tie game, but TLR had to assume that it wouldn’t be pretty. It turned out to be not so bad, and the risk/reward analysis of pinch hitting for Hawksworth with two outs and the bases loaded looks much different in retrospect, but at the time, given only the information available then, it was probably the right move. Also, I know that the Cardinals are little worse for wear for the next game. The Mets, however… (K-Rod threw 130 pitches last night total. Oops)
I’m not trying to say Tony managed well, he just didn’t suck up the place as hard and thoroughly as some here are suggesting. He made some questionable decisions, but didn’t do anything hugely stupid. Except for maybe that Ludwick steal call.
A bad decision is a bad decision and decreases the chance of your team winning…relatively speaking that is.
Chris – A good manager will understand that sometimes you have to make decisions not just based on winning the game you are currently playing, but how it will affect future wins. I’ll trade today’s likely loss for two likely future wins rather than the opposite every time.
Folks EVERY StL relief pitcher but one threw 25 pitches or less…. (and several under 20). Had Larussa chosen to “overwork” just one or two of these guys, you don’t have the problems he had.
The problem is apparently 1-1.1 innings and ~20pitches is the max for the majority of the bullpen… heck the next day when interviewed during the ESPN telecast he mentioned EVERY reliever but 1 (Hawksworth, the one who threw more than 30 pitches) was available.
So with Wainwright on the mound the next day, it was smart for LaRussa to save the pen (you know because Wainwright doesn’t tend to go deep into games).
Bottom line – once it got to the 12th or 13th, he should have been using pitchers for at least 2 innings and then planned on giving them the day off the next day when you have your ace and workhorse on the mound. Extending one or a couple of guys would have had virtually ZERO impact on win probability with Wainwright pitching.
Every game is worth the exact same amount.
Bring in Wainwright (a former closer who is pitching tonight), win that game and have him start on Friday against the Giants. He’ll be fine.
“Every game is worth the exact same amount.”
Right. And you aren’t going to win them all. And sometimes you just have to know when a certain risk is not worth taking.
i guess pitchers cant pitch more than an inning anymore. ridiculous
I think you’re being unfair to Manuel here. There’s no defending Manuel’s letting K-Rod throw 100 pitches in the bullpen. However, at least he didn’t leave his second catcher on the bench in two bases-loaded situations in extras- only to have him pinch hit with the bases loaded later on yet NOT let him enter the game as a catcher. Meanwhile poor Yadier Molina got to catch 20 innings. Add that to playing match-up ball throughout extras instead of conserving your pitchers, pulling Holliday so the Mets could walk Albert throughout extras, going with position players instead of trying to push back a starter and leaving Mather in as a pitcher in the 20th even though he so clearly was not up to it in the 19th.
Manuel deserves some criticism, but he outmanaged LaRussa last night.
sounds like K-Fraud got ‘HURDLED’
(clint hurdle had lidge warm up for several innings and he estimated over 100 bullpen pitches)