Padres Get Short And Long-Term Help For Latos
The Reds and Padres swung a mini-blockbuster today, with Mat Latos heading to Cincinnati in exchange for four players: first baseman Yonder Alonso, catcher Yasmani Grandal, and right-handers Edinson Volquez and Brad Boxberger. We’re all familiar with Volquez because he’s been around a while, and Baseball America recently ranked Alonso, Grandal, and Boxberger as the Reds’ third, fourth, and tenth best prospects, respectively.
Rather than look to fill specific needs — which some felt the Royals did when they traded Zack Greinke to the Brewers last winter — it appears as though the Padres just took the best package of talent they could find. There’s a lot going on here as far as the San Diego is concerned, so let’s break it all down…
Both Yonder and Rizzo?
First base prospect Anthony Rizzo was a key piece of last winter’s Adrian Gonzalez trade, and about two months later Baseball America ranked him as the 75th prospect in the game. Alonso was two spots ahead of him at number 73. San Diego now has two young, high-end, left-handed power bats at first base that are essentially Major League ready in their organization, creating a bit of a logjam.
The Reds tried like crazy to find a non-first base spot for Alonso over the last few years, trying him at third base and in the outfield. Most of his big league time has come in left field, but it’s hard to find anyone that thinks that experiment will work long-term. Rizzo has never played anything other than first base in the minors, and as a left-handed thrower, he’s limited to first or the outfield. Neither player has great defensive tools, so they’re stuck battling it out for the same full-time roster spot. Ultimately, another trade is likely.
Petco Park tends to favor right-handed hitters or opposite field lefties like Gonzalez, which actually makes Alonso a better long-term fit than Rizzo even though his minor league performance isn’t as impressive. Both players have power the other way, though Alonso does have longer track record of hitting the ball to all fields with authority, dating back to his days at Miami. Their big league spray charts don’t tell us anything definitive given the small sample sizes (Alonso and Rizzo), but there is a noticeable difference. Yonder has also exhibited better strike zone discipline in the minors (11.0 BB% compared to 9.7% for Rizzo) without the propensity to strike out (15.1 K% compared to 20.7% for Rizzo).
It’s worth mentioning that Alonso figures to be more expensive going forward even though both guys are under team control through 2017. The big league contract he signed out of the draft in 2008 will pay him $1 million in 2012, and that will impact his future salaries going forward. Rizzo will make half that next season and won’t have the same trickle down effect. Both guys are great young hitters, but Alonso is probably a better long-term fit for San Diego given their extreme home park situation. There will be no shortage of teams willing to trade for Rizzo, with Rays, Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners, Nationals, Cubs, Cardinals, and Brewers among the clubs that could use a young, power-hitting first baseman.
Volquez in Petco Park
We’re now three years removed from Volquez’s breakout 4.2 WAR season in 2008, with Tommy John surgery, a PED suspension, and walk issues popping up in recent years. The now 28-year-old right-hander has walked 13.4% of the batters he’s faced since the start of 2009, second most behind Carlos Marmol (16.6%) among pitchers who’ve thrown at least 220 innings. The strikeout (22.2 K% and 8.88 K/9) and ground ball (51.3%) rates are still very good during that time, it just continues to be a question of control.
For now, Volquez steps into Latos’ vacated rotation spot. He’s only under control through 2013 as an arbitration-eligible player, so don’t expect his tenure in San Diego to be all that long. With some help from a strong defensive club and a drastic change in home ballparks, Volquez could find himself on another club as soon as this summer if he puts together a solid first half. The guy has always had walk problems, but he could see some improvement going forward as he gets further away from elbow reconstruction. He’s the only established big leaguer heading to the Padres, but it isn’t insane to consider him the fourth piece of the deal as far as they’re concerned.
The Long-Term Catcher
The Reds were blessed with two top catching prospects, but it’s not surprising they decided to keep the big league ready Devin Mesoraco over Grandal, the 12th overall pick in the 2010 draft. Grandal had a huge year with the stick at three minor league levels in 2011 (.305/.401/.500 with 14 homers in 105 games), and Baseball America recently touted him as being an average receiver and thrower in the long-term. Like Alonso, he does a nice job controlling the strike zone (13.3 BB% so far in his career), and catchers that can avoid being zeros at the plate while being average behind it are very valuable. Grandal figures to be much more than that, and as an added bonus, he’s a switch-hitter.
The Padres are pretty well set behind the plate next year with Nick Hundley and John Baker, so they can afford to be patient and give Grandal a full season in the minors. He crushed Double-A pitching during his 45-game cameo there last summer (.301/.360/.474), so a full season in Triple-A is probably in the forecast next year. San Diego had little upper level catcher depth in the minors, so this move fills a glaring hole.
Bullpen Depth
The 43rd overall pick in 2009, the Reds moved Boxberger to the bullpen full-time this season and he flourished. In 62 innings split almost evenly between Double- and Triple-A, he struck out 93 and walked just 28 with a strong ground ball rate (~46% according to Minor League Central). He tacked on another 22 strikeouts and six walks in 11.1 Arizona Fall League innings after the season.
For all intents and purposes, Boxberger is a big league ready bullpen arm with swing-and-miss stuff (92-95 fastball and an average slider) and some control problems. The Padres have a knack for turning guys like this into quality late-inning arms, which is what Boxberger projected to be even before the move to Petco. Boxberger is unlikely to step into the shoes previously filled by Heath Bell, at least not in 2012, but getting six cost-controlled years of a power reliever as an extra piece was a nice get for Byrnes.
* * *
It going to hurt anytime a team trades a young, homegrown, ace-caliber pitcher, but the Padres did a fine job of getting long-term solutions at first base and catcher while adding some young bullpen help. Volquez is a bit of a wildcard, but he’s got a chance to help the club both on the mound and as a trade chip within the next two seasons. Byrnes managed to get a nice combination of short-term production and long-term value by trading Latos, and he should be applauded for being open-minded enough to take an upgrade over Rizzo if it meant getting the most talent possible.
Great deal for the Pads, and the Reds get an ace.
I can’t believe Volquez didn’t win ROY this year. He was robbed.
huh?
@SayHey. It was a joke, Volquez got a 2nd place ROY vote from the BBWAA when he wasn’t a rookie
That joke never gets old, does it?
I imagine other pieces will be flipped soon. Otherwise, the Padres have a cluster**** of 1B that they’ll try to play in LF — and we really don’t even know how much, if any, of an improvement Alonso is over Rizzo/Blanks. If Grandal pans, the Padres could end up winning the trade as I expect Boxberger to be an above-average bullpen arm during his team controlled seasons (minus the last one when he is inevitably dealt, too). It’s pretty apparent Volquez’s 4 WAR season was a fluke. I don’t expect that headcase/cheater to do much, but he’s somewhat of a future trade lotto ticket, if he can produce in the short term.
Yeah, more deals likely in the works if not now then… during the season. Volquez over the past two years has an 8.98 K/9 but BB/9 of a whopping 5.25.
The Padres continuing to dump good players for prospects is getting tiring. Last year, A-Gone, Adams, and Bell. This year Latos. When and if any of these players received, are ready to make an impact,the Padres will be thinking about flipping them for more prospects. This team and others are in a perpetual rebuilding process that leads nowhere.
They didn’t trade Bell. And what do you expect them to do?
I think the fact that they didn’t trade him makes it worse, since they didn’t get the comp picks they were hoping for.
Dude they made the playoffs in 2005 and 2006. They missed the playoffs by one game each year in 2007 and 2010. They’re not “perpetually rebuilding”.
Adrian Gonzalez was going to leave, so you trade him.
Mike Adams = bullpen. So you get assets for him.
Bell wasn’t traded, not enough interest.
They got a haul for Latos and Gonzalez. Hopefully a few of those prospects pan out and life is good.
@James – Uh, no. They receive both a supplemental-round pick and the pick in front of the Marlins’ in the second round.
So 301/360/474 is “crushing” AA pitching? Is the “crush” bar set lower for catchers than for others?
Yes
Have you ever seen or played in a minor league park? They are HUGE. Homeruns are real low in most minor leagues since some parks are 370 down the line. And yes catcher is the weakest offensive position in the majors aside from a handful of guys
The dimensions, from left to right, of Five County Stadium are 330-400-309. I don’t think Grandal projects well as a home run hitter. He’s more of a gap hitter, and he’s demonstrated good plate patience.
This seems like a fantastic deal for the Padres. In return for Latos, who is good, but who was undoubtedly helped by PetCo, they received some very good players. With some luck, Volquez could become as good as Latos in PetCo (it might be a stretch, but Cincinnati is a much harder place to pitch). They also received a good catcher prospect, and a good 1B/OF prospect, and Boxberger who I heard mentioned as a possible closer someday. His K/9 is pretty great. Good job by the Pads
Might want to check Latos’ road stats for his career before you make that statement…
Agree with asd…
Latos is good but not an elite. And the Pads got back quite a package. This will help their offense a great deal and make them a much more rounded club. Kudos Pads.
BTW was Matos wife/GF included in the deal?
“Might want to check Latos’ road stats”
Exactly. No one thinks the Reds just traded for Halladay or Felix Hernandez, but Latos has as close to an elite ceiling as anyone on the market, and the Reds have him through 2015. Alonso and Grandal needed to bring back a pitcher with big upside, and they did.
Its astounding how many people must be judging Latos on his Win total, because they clearly aren’t looking at the stats.
He has almost identical H/R splits over his last 2+ years, with a mid 3′s K/BB ratio, and a strong HR/FB trend.
With 4 years of cost controlled performance, I can’t really think of a recent comparable on his plane.
Some good prospects, but, prospects, non the less. Put a ballteam on the field,now!
Who in the hell would give Prince Fielder a huge contract now that the Angels AND Padres are looking to trade their extra young, cheap, pretty decent first baseman?
The third team that doesn’t get either in a trade.
Trumbo is terrible.
Not to mention before this trade Alonso was on the trade block anyway.
So has anything really changed other than the team trying to trade him (or now it being potentially Rizzo instead)?
Morales isn’t you dumbfuck.
I think this trade signals that the Padres think Alonso is better than Rizzo.
I think his trade signals that the Padres are smart enought to take the best talent package available.
I think this is a great trade for both teams. A pitcher like Latos has to cost a haul, and in Cincy’s case they were able to get a potential ace for what to them was a surplus of position-specific players.
Though I’m hoping you guys can help shed some light to me on the love for Alonso, as I’ve never seen him play and haven’t found a good-looking scouting report. I know the Miami pedigree, but frankly his numbers are totally underwhelming to me when you consider his age (24 in AAA last year) and the fact that 1B prospects are expected to mash in the minors.
To me, Grandal and Boxberger are mouth-watering bits of this trade for the Pods.
His minor league numbers are low due to a broken hamate bone (wrist) which sapped his power for a year. His bat is legit. Should be a high average, moderate power guy. He had the best plate presence of anyone on the Reds last year aside from Votto.
Using the 2012 schedule and current rosters, my simulator has the Reds gaining right around 3 wins in this deal and the Padres losing 2.8. Obviously, the Padres gain some in the long run though.
How many wins is that for the 2012 Padres total?
0.2
72.036 (new total)
All 162 games simulated 5000 times.
Don’t worry Padres fans. We still have Dustin Moseley and he’ll be a CY Young candidate next year as the staff ace playing in Petco!
Lube job
Grandal is below average behind the plate. I like Rizzo better than Alonso, and I think Rizzo is better than average defensively. The way Latos pitches, I feel he will not be all that affected by leaving pitcher-friendly Petco. Good trade for both teams, but better for the Reds IMO.
I got to agree. The Padres didn’t really help themselves that much. Honestly, power h ifitting first basemen are literally everywhere. Neither of the pitchers are really pieces that do more than fill a roster spot. Volquez will be gone when the Padres are ready to compete again, and relievers aren’t easy to project. If Grandal develops, it could turn out alright for the Padres, but development is always a risk.
Basically, the Reds gave up nothing that they’re going to miss. The Padres will miss Latos.
idk, Grandal and Alonso are both pretty high ceiling players. Alonso makes Rizzo expendable and he’ll net a good return (unless they flip either of Alonso or Grandal). Point is that both are considered pretty valuable and as far as accumulating assets, it looks like Josh Byrnes is doing a good job so far.
I’m trying to imagine something that is literally everywhere and it’s blowing my mind…
If they were literally everywhere Pujols wouldnt have gotten that contract neither would other big time first basemen since theyd be easily replaced
Nice job Padres, Reds proved why they are an also ran in the pretty mediocre NL Central. Nice job buying high. That is really the way to do it for the Padres though, take your mediocre pitching prospects and sell them for better players while teams still don’t realize how flawed FIP is.
oh so groundball pitchers, featuring a strikeout per inning and less than 3 BB/9, are mediocre?
that 7+ WAR over his frist 2 full MLB seasons is pretty mediocre too.
where do these people come from? mediocre?!?
MLB teams don’t realize how flawed FIP is, but you do. The baseball world bows to your brilliance.
Ender, you don’t know squat. You must have reached the conclusion that Latos is mediocre by looking at his W-L record last season. The kid has legit no-hit potential every time he makes a start.
Ender is write in most things he said; but wrong if they that the public’s perception on FIP applies to Latos dominance. The kid set a mlb all time record for most consecutive starts giving up 2er or less. When he’s on his A game he’s light’s out in any park.
I’m being a troll today–just a few nitpicks.
Axisa says, “Boxberger . . . flourished in 62 innings. . . and walked just 28″. That comes our to just over 4 BB/9. Not my idea of flourishing. Nor is 6 walks in 11.1 innings in the AFL. Axisa calls this, “some control problems”. Looks like more than some to me.
asdfasdf praises Boxberger as a pitcher, “who I heard mentioned as a possible closer someday.” I don’t even know where to begin criticizing that remark.
You could begin with a google search of “Brad Boxberger” + “closer,” which yields 13,000 results. You could continue by reading up on Boxberger, who was been slapped with the “potential future closer” label for a while now. Fact 1: the guy has an ugly walk rate. Fact 2: he is sometimes mentioned as a possible closer. Just because these things are both true doesn’t mean you should criticize the author even further.
Nice job Padres. With any luck, one of these three prospects will blossom into a semi-star and they can trade prospect when they’re 24 for 3 more prospects and the 2018 title will be theirs!
Y.Alonso
AAA (23-24): 854pa, 9.7bb%, 15.9k%, .296avg (.332babip), .364obp (.068isobp), .478slg (.182isop), .842ops, .369woba, 128wRC+
AA (22-23): 242pa, 13.6bb%, 12.8k%, .282avg (.308babip), .380obp (.098isobp), .432slg (.150isop), .812ops, .374woba, 128wRC+
A+ (21-22): 226pa, 12.8bb%, 15.5k%, .304avg (.336babip), .389obp (.085isobp), .485slg (.181isop), .874ops, .397woba, 151wRC+
can anyone explain to me what’s so special about this guy?
fairly old for his level every step of the way, without ever displaying big power, and with his walk rate deteriorating at higher levels. Overall unimpressive lines, with a career .837ops and .173iso in the minors, from a guy who’s only value will ever be in his bat.
Is it really the 100 or so MLB at bats he had last year, fuelled by an unsustainable .370babip, that has this guy rated so highly?
And how can you compare him to Rizzo without even mentioning that Rizzo is 3 years younger, and has either matched or outhit Alonso at every level? He may have a worse K rate but that comes with his far superior power.
A.Rizzo:
AAA (21-21): 413pa, 10.4bb%, 21.5k%, .331avg (.369babip), .404obp (.073isobp), .652slg (.320isop), 1.056ops, .433woba, 149wRC+
AA (20-20): 467pa, 9.6bb%, 21.4k%, .263avg (.297babip), .334obp (.071isobp), .481slg (.218isop), .815ops, .361woba, 120wRC+
A+ (19-20): 364pa, 11.3bb%, 19.5k%, .278avg (.328babip), .357obp (.079isobp), .442slg (.164isop), .799ops, .359woba, 121wRC+
Rizzo seems well ahead to me.
Isn’t the PCL a major hitters league?
@mk–you took the words right out of my mouth. Thin air and hard infield dirt. PCL stats are a very poor indicator (usually) for what either a hitter or a pitcher is going to do once they reach the majors. Rizzo’s stats went through the roof once he start playing at Tucson.