Padres, Maybin Both Win With Five-Year Extension
The Padres made one of the best moves of the offseason a year ago, acquiring Cameron Maybin from the Marlins for two middle relievers (Ryan Webb and Edward Mujica). The 24-year-old center fielder rewarded them with a 4.7 WAR season, and now they’ve rewarded him with a five-year contract extension. Dan Hayes of The North County Times first reported that a deal was imminent, and has since added details via Twitter…
Front office source confirms Cameron Maybin’s deal is for 5 years w/ an option for 6th. Ties up first 2 years of free agency.
#PadresSource: Cameron Maybin’s deal is for $23-25 million with option on $7-8 million range.
#Padres
The team has since announced the deal. The contract buys out Maybin’s final season as a pre-arbitration player, all three years of arbitration-eligibility, and one free agent year. The option covers a second free agent year and could potential keep him in San Diego through age 30.
The deal is very similar to the one signed by Chris Young (five years, $25.5 million), and it’s probably not a coincidence that Josh Byrnes was the GM for both deals. Although both players signed their five-year contracts one year prior to becoming eligible for arbitration, Young’s didn’t kick in until the following year. The Diamondbacks will have him under contract for one season longer than the Padres will have Maybin, but the framework is very similar. Curtis Granderson (five years, $30.25 million) and Franklin Gutierrez (four years, $20.25 million) also signed extensions at similar points of their careers.
Agent Brian Goldberg appears to have gotten his client a nice guarantee especially compared to Young and Granderson, who had significant power advantages over Maybin at the time of their contracts. Power pays in arbitration and in deals like this, not defense. One full season worth of UZR (+9.5) and DRS (+11) doesn’t tell us much, but the scouting reports and reputation certainly back up Maybin’s work in the field. Offensively he performed considerably better away from Petco Park (.357 wOBA) than he did at home last season (.297), which isn’t a surprise at all.
Goldberg did well for Maybin, but the Padres got themselves a nice bargain even if he settles in as a four-win player going forward. His salary would have been depressed during his team control years, but the club will get plenty of surplus value barring injury or sudden collapse. There is risk as always, but Maybin’s skill set is well-suited for his home park and the team secured the prime years of a guy playing a premium up the middle position. Everyone should be happy.
I wouldn’t put Maybin settling in as a 4-win player on the pessimistic side of likely outcomes. I don’t count on +10 defense from anyone without a lot of data to support it, and offensively the only change he made (Besides going to a park that punishes his game less than the standard park adjustment) is that he cut down on his strikeouts without any clear improvement in his contact skills.
Of course even if he’s a 2-2.5 win player it’s a solid enough deal.
“I don’t count on +10 defense from anyone without a lot of data to support it.”
So you are completely ignoring the scouting reports and reputation?
“that he cut down on his strikeouts without any clear improvement in his contact skills.”
Why do they have to be mutually exclusive to be a positive?
C’mon buddy.
Yeah, I pretty much ignore scouting reports for the purposes of labeling anyone a +10 defender in CF after one season. I’d imagine anyone who has watched much of Colby Rasmus or Adam Jones the last few years does.
And yeah, you have to either swing and miss less or show better strike zone judgment for me to believe that your strikeout rate going from 28.2% to 22.0% is sustainable.
I agree…in most cases, it matters, how a guy finishes, not how he starts. AND!!!, it helps to actually watch the games on a regular basis to see guys like this improve.
I get the distinct impression a lot of times, that Padre critics dont even watch most of the games. They watch a handful of games and then they make these broad assumptions about how they think a player or the team as a whole will fail.
I get it…its a part of being a fan, I guess. But when a kid like Maybin has the year he had last season, the smarter thing to do is to look at what his potential will be, as opposed to what he didnt bring to the table, right off the bat.
And then there’s just common sense…CLEARLY, this is the kind of player that the Padres wanted to acquire, long term, for the ballpark they play 81 games in.
I agree with this assessment. 4 wins is probably closer to the top end than the bottom. +10 UZR defense–even with a long track record–isn’t guaranteed. Just look at another speedy CF’s (Michael Bourn) UZR splits. Still, +25 uzr over the life of the deal seems reasonable.
Offense is a concern too. 320 OBP/320 wOBA from a guy with that speed…leaves something to be desired. Still, given his age and pedigree…why not gamble on the upside if you’re the Pads?
Hard to quantify, but the Padres have a huge image problem with their fans that gets alleviated somewhat with this deal. Before this, the team had only ever signed a 2 year deal under Moorad, had traded their leading homerun hitter two consecutive seasons, dealt their young ace, dealt who was sold to the fans as Adrian’s replacement (Rizzo), and had failed to sign their first round pick in their initial draft.
“and had failed to sign their first round pick in their initial draft.”
That isn’t right. The initial 1st round pick under Moorad had the team giving out not only their largest bonus ever, but more then twice as much as their previous high mark.
Last year I made comments and referred to articles/research that showed Maybin as essentially a guy that could do two things really well at the plate: [1] K, and [2] hit groundballs. Then he went out and had a “4.7 WAR season”. Good for him. Seriously, good for him. I don;t like to see talented players struggle, even if doing so makes me look “smart”.
What does Maybin look like from here?
His WAR Runs over the last 3 years (recent to past)
Batting: +9.9, -6.1, -3.3
Fielding: +9.5, -3.4, +4.1
Running: +4.3, +4.1, +1.5
Replace: 18.9, 10.7, 8.6
Positional: 0 to 2.
So if we do quick and dirty math we get a guesstimation of …:
Bat: +2
Fld: +3.5
RLvl: +14
Pos: +1
We get basically a league average CF, with potential to get better.
But SD bought out: [1] 1 year of team control, [2] 3 years of arbitration.
Since Maybin excels at things that are under-valued, didn’t they give him money that they likely didn’t need to? How much is Maybin really going to get in arbitration? (serious question).
Regardless, it’s a good deal for team and player, I’m really just wondering if SD gave up more money than they needed to.
They did get themselves two free agent years at only a 9m guarantee. Ignoring that doesn’t take into consideration the main benefit from the teams perspective.
I know you’re doing a “quick estimation” but I sure hope you’re accounting for the fact that one season he had what, 550-600 AB and the other 2 he had 190-250.
I think Cam is still projectable for further power upside…he was a skinny skinny kid in the minors when he played here in my town and just now is filling out…he had a huge hole in his swing which is just now getting worked out…I think his worst case is a Corey Patterson-like career, with his most likely track being a slightly better Devon White or BJ Upton…if he gets his OBP up via walks or more hits, he has a chance to be Willie Davis…he reminds me a lot of Davis physically….
Interesting players that had similar extensions.
Granderson was just simply very good, 4 WAR and 8 WAR seasons. It was obvious Grandy was going to be good. Great defense and showed good power, plus speed.
Chris Young showed the power and speed but was a little shaky defensively. Now with good bat and glove he’s put up back-to-back 4.5 WAR seasons.
Gutierrez … a 6 WAR season followed by a return to ~2 WAR range.
I don;t think Maybin’s going to come anywhere close to the power of Grandy and Young, so we can forget those comps right away.
Looking at Maybin’s profile, the only thing that really seems to be interesting is that he swing quite a bit more (both in and out of the zone) and made a little more contact.
Well the difference between Maybin’s potential and Bourn, Corey Patterson, Devon White or BJ Upton would give you is that all those guys weigh about 180 pounds and with the exception of Upton are about 6 feet tall or less. Maybin is 6’3″ and weighed 210 coming in to 2011 and looked more 220 by the end. Projecting more power, but without the effort that a guy like Patterson has to generate, isn’t hard to envision. Even Willie Davis was a rail (6’2″ 180-190 pounds) at the same age, whereas Maybin’s frame could and should support a lot more and ideally lead to a lot of XBH. Could be a steal for the Padres.
“Maybin is 6’3? and weighed 210 coming in to 2011 and looked more 220 by the end.”
Do you work at the carnival or something? Seems like an increase of less than 5% of his body weight would be pretty hard to detect.
I did not. That may be a pretty big mistake on my part.
Looking at “full season projections” over the last 3 years probably put him closer to the 3.5 – 4 range than 2-3.
If that’s the case and say he more or less averages 3-4 WAR over the next 6 years … then it’s a steal. At the very least it’s a small risk contract.
It’s not a bad deal, but I’m more inclined to think it’s a neutral deal. Like the author said, the things that Maybin does well aren’t normally valued during arbitration. He’s essentially the same player as Angel Pagan who made $3.5M and $4.85M during his last 2 years of arb. Does anyone thing Pagan is going to make much more than that as a free agent next year?
I just don’t see any discount to justify the guarantee salary.
Pagan is a ridiculous comp outside of the superficial statistics. Maybin was a top prospect, made the majors when he was 20 years old, and established himself as a (league average at worst) regular at age 24. Pagan’s first MLB experience was at age 24 and he didn’t establish himself until age 27-28 seasons.
If Maybin stays as good as Pagan (3-4 win player) then it’s a steal, but the difference is that Maybin oozes talent and has some more upside heading into his age 25 season.
I am happy for him that he finally has stability after being fucked around for so long. He should truly blossom now.
This one is pretty simple. The Padres run their team as a business and to make a profit. Their biggest PR job is to convince their fans that that is not the case and they will spend to win. What better way than locking up your most visible player for another 5 years? Even if he flops and this contract turns out to be $5-$10 mil on the high side(hard to imagine), the goodwill they just bought from their fan base is more than worth that risk
As opposed to the twenty-nine other baseball clubs who run their team for the good of God and country.
Come off it.
LOL
Ed
Power comes from force (strength, bat speed) and swing path (launch angle).
In order to hit for more power he’s going to have to change his swing. He has a GB swing.
Looking at Maybin’s splits at BRef …
25% of his XB’s came at Coors Field, where he absolutely lit he up.
I’m curious to see Maybin’s home/road UZR splits over time.
I think there are quite a few anomalies in terms of park effects and folks look at UZR and only discount it for duration of the sample size when there can be other anomalies in the data.
Carl Crawford had massive UZR splits at the Trop vs away from the Trop (it was a 15run delta on a UZR/150 basis and this was over a 6+ year period). This is potentially a 0.75.WAR error if his skill level is close to one level or the other (away or home)
Derek Jeter has a career UZR/150 away from Yankee stadium of +0.1 (which kind of runs contrary to the he’s a poor fielder narrative)
At Yankee stadium he’s ~ -11; meaning his performance at home is SIGNIFICANTLY worse? This is 15+ years of data, coupled with it being a SS (which means more chances and UZR stabilizing the fastest at this position… not to mention the infield position shouldn’t really have a significant park effect. This is a potential 0.5 WAR/yr delta over a long career
Hard to tell with Maybin but playing at Petco I would not be surprised to see his UZR a bit overstated as zone sizes in the OF are different. I don’t think it will change his valuation significantly but it could have some impact.
well, fwiw, you’re right that the driver of the year-over-year uzr change was the range element–which makes sense in narrative form…Petco’s more cavernous CF rewards a speedier player, no?
the only problem with this… doesn’t the uzr model adjust for different ballparks?
It does, but that doesn’t mean the adjustment is correct (Crawford?).
I’m also not sure if it adjusts for all components (armR, errR) or just range.
I hate these analyses that assume only away stats matter and home stats don’t count. Where did this idea ever come from?
I’m not saying one’s right or wrong, I’m asking is Jeter 10 runs worse at home (per 150 games) over 15+ years and is UZR measuring defensive skill/performance as accurately as we think?
Is Crawford really 15 runs better at the Trop?
I’m not saying ignore half the data, but when there is such a massive split in home/road performance over a rather long period of time, is the stat missing something?
I hate these comments that just put blind allegiance into a stat and don’t look at anomalies and ask if there is an issue…. If you saw a 10run/yr split on home/road hitting stats over a 6-10 year period, would you not think it significant?
You think Jeter’s #’s are real and he really is just 10 runs worse defensively at home? (or if you prefer 10 runs better on the road)
Yes, something’s missing. The field they play at is producing quirky results, definitely I agree. The park adjustments need to be looked at again, maybe even position by position at certain parks.
“Maybin’s skill set is well-suited for his home park”
In what sense?
Petco has a huge outfield for him to roam in. Plus he can hit the large Petco Park gaps and turn doubles into triples.
Except that Petco is one of the parks that he’s hit the worst in.
.618 OPS at Petco, .704 career.
That’s saying something since 2011 was his best year with the bat.
@Circle Change -
That’s because it is Petco… almost everybody without exception hits worse at Petco, not just Maybin.
Josh Byrnes has a history of locking up young talent at solid prices. This is yet another. Maybin will be a stud in SD.
http://westsideculture.mlblogs.com/2012/01/26/cactus-league-spring-training-preview-san-diego-padres/
The only thing I’ll say is that I watched Maybin play in around 55 games last year – and I’ve talked to fans who have watched more – he’s exactly the kind of player you need to sign to this kind of contract if you’re the Padres.
What if he averages +7 UZR, an OPS of 850 and 50 stolen bases over the next couple years? Suddenly it’s Adrian Gonzalez all over again and we’re picking through the Cubs or Sox farm systems.
We’ve seen enough 22 year old AAAA outfielders in San Diego.
Time to go order a jersey!
If he OPS’s 850 as a Padre this contract will be a huge overpay …. because he’ll be playing in AA. *grin*
For a career ~.320 OBP guy to be averaging a 850 OPS, he’ll have to be in the top 10 of MLB for SLG. His career high for SLG is .409 with FLA, less in his 2 Padre seasons. Adrian Gonzalez slugged .500-.550 as a Padre.
I don;t understand this. They already had him under team control for >1M in 2012. 3 years of arbitration where he’s not going to get more than 5M/y … so they already had him for 4/17 (at most), possibly around 4/10.
Do the Padres need ANYONE locked up through 2018?
I do agree though that there’s no one else that SDP can really lock up for that many years and for that price. Most everyone else is just waiting their time before they can leave Hitter’s Hell via free agency.
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The cool thing about baseball is all of the stats and all of the history. For players with a .317 wOBA though their 1st 1200 MLB PA’s, what is the average wOBA for the next 6 seasons?
“what is the average wOBA for the next 6 seasons?” I do not know, what is it?
What about those that accumulated 1200PA by age 24?
I don’t think you can do the sort of simplistic 3-year-avg type of projection analysis with a guy as young as Maybin. His first 600 PA was spread across 4 seasons, age 20-23, as he bounced up and down from AAA and the majors with sporadic playing time.
He put up a .325 wOBA last year, and remember wOBA is NOT park adjusted. His 112 wRC+ in 2011 looks a lot better and accounts for the Petco effect.
Even if you’re pessimistic on the viability of defensive statistics, Maybin has been a practically league average hitter over his first ~1200 PA, despite playing sporadically throughout the first four seasons, playing the fifth season in PETCO, and doing this all before his 25th birthday.
ZIPS has his top comps as Roberto Kelly Marquis Grisson, and Marlon Byrd, while baseball-reference has them as Lou Brock, Von Hayes, and Bernie Williams.
WAR over their age 25-29 seasons:
Kelly – 14.0
Grisson – 22.0
Byrd – 6.4
Brock – 26.0
Hayes – 18.0
Williams – 22.3
That comes out to 3.6 WAR per season, on average.
league average player*
Players never lose in these types of deals. They all get millions of dollars more than they’ll ever be able to spend. I really think only a team can win bc they have budgets and such.
Yea listen to Circle Change he is my long lost father
maybin projections:
2012: 13 HR 32 SB .267
2013: 14 hr 33 SB .269
2014: 19 HR 29 SB .283
2015: 14 HR 19 SB .280
2016: 11 HR 20 SB .268
this means he’ll be better than carl crawford 11 HR 18 SB 2011.
not bad for a 24 year old kid.
I still wonder how Cameron Maybin moves from Florida, puts up average UZR numbers, then puts up a +10 run season in San Diego. Meanwhile, Dexter Fowler in Colorado puts up -6 runs. I just think the difference in these two players’ defensive abilities is far less than a 16 run difference, and park adjustments for these things need to be looked at a little closer. If they’re not, Maybin just might end up looking rosy every single year as compared to a very similar player in a different ballpark.