Padres Ready To Tango With Cash(ner)
It’s generally assumed that the Padres will have no trouble putting together a good pitching staff because of the park they play in, and while they have generally given us little reason to think otherwise, last year the Friars didn’t get such great relief work. Enter Andrew Cashner, who was traded to San Diego this afternoon along with prospect Kyung-Min Na for prospects Anthony Rizzo and Zach Cates.
In a vacuum, this doesn’t look like the greatest trade for the Padres. Anyone who has ever played fantasy baseball knows that you trade a reliever for a first baseman every day of the week and twice on Sunday’s. But trades don’t happen in a vacuum. With the deal, the Padres make their roster fit better in three ways, the first of which was with regards to their bullpen.
From 2009-2010, the Padres bullpen racked up 10.5 WAR, good for fifth-best in the game. As a unit, their 3.31 ERA and 3.43 FIP were second-best in the game and their 3.58 xFIP was the best. But last year the unit slumped, to 18th in xFIP (3.97) and 24th in WAR (1.3). What’s more, the three most valuable members of last year’s pen — Mike Adams, Cory Luebke and Heath Bell — have departed (Luebke still remains on the team, but is now a starter). So while Cashner may eventually move to the rotation, for now he will help stabilize the bullpen.
Cashner has the chance to be a stud. As Bradley Woodrum noted last March, Cashner had a pretty excellent two years in the Minors in 2009 and 2010, and he has his bright spots in his first taste of big-league action in ’10 as well. After one start last season, he promptly headed to the disabled list without passing Go or collecting $200, and missed most of the season with a rotator cuff injury. Happily, he didn’t need surgery and was able to pitch for the Cubs down the stretch, as well as in the Arizona Fall League. When he’s right, Cashner can hit 100, and he should slot in as one of San Diego’s better relievers. He may get a chance to reclaim his status as a starter, but that opportunity will not come imminently.
While Cashner would have more value in the long run in the rotation, he will provide short-term value in the ‘pen in another way. Since the Padres nominally already have five starters in Luebke, Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Dustin Moseley and Edinson Volquez, there may have been a temptation to break in one of their young guns — Casey Kelly, Robbie Erlin or Joe Wieland — in the bullpen to start the season. With Cashner now in the fold, the Padres can comfortably allow the troika to hone their skills in the Minors and out of the spotlight until it is deemed that they are ready. Perhaps the Friars were already going to do that, but adding Cashner (and Volquez before him) eliminates one more hole the troika could have potentially filled.
The third and final way the Padres made the roster fit better, of course, was at first base. With their recent acquisition of Yonder Alonso, the Padres had three first basemen — Alonso, Rizzo and Jesus Guzman. The team can now work out a platoon between Alonso and Guzman, which should fit nice and neat. Alonso hit .313 against lefties in the Minors last season, but has thus far achieved little success in the Majors against them, and he wasn’t exactly a beast against them before last season. On the other hand, Guzman’s 151 wRC+ versus lefties tied for 36th best in the game last season with Ben Zobrist, Curtis Granderson and Andruw Jones (min. 100 PA). Granted, it’s only 101 plate appearances, but Guzman does have a history of hitting lefties well. The two could end up forming a pretty nice platoon.
Cashner (as well as Na, who hasn’t hit much, but is fast and got a taste of Double-A at age 19, both of which qualify as good things) is still a bit of a mystery. He lights up radar guns, and has flashed big-strikeout potential, but he has just 65 innings of Major League ball under his belt, and he will be 25 this season. If he can maintain the form he flashed in 2010 and ever, ever so briefly last September, the Padres will have added a nice chip to the back of their bullpen while better aligning their roster for the 2012 season, all while enabling their young guns to get more seasoning on the farm. Add it all up and you have an exchange that looks more worthwhile than the headline “Padres trade first baseman for relief pitcher” would lead you to believe.
As a fan of the movie, I give a big + for the creative title.
Don’t forget about Kyle Blanks
While I appreciate the attempt to put the trade in a positive light for the Padres and think you have some valid points, I still don’t think you can justify the trade as a good one for the Padres. Arguing Cashner’s positives relative to San Diego’s needs fails to address the fact they did not receive equal value in the trade. I’ve always been bothered by trades that involved “blocked” prospects going to another team for what seems to be a below market rate. The fact that a prospect has a better major leaguer in front of him should not significantly decrease his value to other teams. What’s even more intersting is that San Diego was involved on the opposite side of a similar trade when they received Alonso from the Reds which in effect created the surplus of first baseman. While I think the Padres definitely got the best in the Latos deal, it looks like they got smoked here.
agreed. i don’t know how happy pads fans will be with brynes choosing fit over value. if they were so intent on dealing rizzo, why not let him rake at AAA again and see what offers come in during the season? even if byrnes thought rizzo was overrrated, the rest of the league still valued him highly, which should have meant a better return than this. get the best return possible and make a trade for fit later, if necessary.
What makes you think the rest of the league valued Rizzo highly? We have heard that the Rays, who the media speculates is searching for a first baseman, had only mild interest in Rizzo. They seem to be one of the better scouting organizations. Perhaps many teams feel the same way the Rays and current Padres management apparently feels.
Rizzo has tons of upside but is far from a sure thing. He definitely has holes in his swing that were exploited in his MLB trial last season. He had his breakout season in a hitters park in a hitters league.
The Padres may not have made the best trade but if you believe Rizzo is a lot closer to Adam LaRoche than Prince Fielder. And further that Yonder Alonso is the guy you want on the 25-man roster and you don’t wish to deal with the QB controversy, then getting a 100mph throwing potential ace starter or closer in the deal seems like a decent return at least.
Though throwing in Zach Cates makes no sense to me either. Maybe the Padres were extremely high on Cashner.
I don’t understand why you’d want to commit to a platoon with two first base “prospects”, no matter how neat the numbers fit. If it happens as a matter of convenience for a short period of time, then fine, but Yonder needs to face left handers. He’ll be 25 at the start of the season and I don’t see a reason to postpone the learning curve any further. I’m not sure what you do with Jesus and Yonder, but both need regular playing time.
Yeah I don’t like this trade either.. Maaaaybe if Cashner becomes Ryan Madson and Na ends up as one of the better 4th outfielders in the game I could see a Win for the Pad’s. But seriously, the Ray’s couldn’t come up with a better package than a 20 year old defensive specialist (career .244/.335/.284 slash line in the minors) and a 25 year old with 65 Major League innings under his belt? (65 sub-par innings I might add)… Doesn’t Tampa Bay have guys like that just lying around in the clubhouse??
Byrnes ought to call up Andrew Friedman and ask him what a good bullpen is worth in a rebuilding year.
Latos is a 24 year old proven starter.
Cashner is a 25 year old possible project starter.
Not to be cliche, but…
A boat’s a boat but the mystery box could be anything…it could even be a boat!
I know it’s wrong to reevaluate the Latos deal in light of subsequent dealings, but if this is the haul for Rizzo…I mean, yikes. Even if Rizzo is actually Chris Carter or Brett Wallace or something…Cashner’s peak WAR projection is o/u 3.0?
Keep in mind that Rizzo has probably been oversold (at least in San Diego) and probably rushed up to the majors to compensate for the PR hit of letting Adrian Gonzalez go. The consensus seems to be he would have to modify his swing/approach to have consistent long-term success at the major league level (and more specifically PETCO). Who knows if he could make that adjustment. He couldn’t last year.
They were shopping him relatively openly and either (a) Rizzo doesn’t seem to have been as valued around the league as most fans assume or (b) the Padres value Cashner higher than the other offers. I imagine the plan is to ideally develop Cashner under Black/Balsley into a cheap young dominant closer for 2013 onward when the team is likely to be more productive.
Trading away your top organizational hitting prospect of the year for a future closer? Sounds more like something a World Series contender would do in a pinch.
Cashner has the chance to be a very special pitcher. Darts clocked at 101 don’t grow on trees. That being said, the decision to utilize him in the bullpen should yield similar results as Luebke last year, enabaling him to keep his arm healthy while giving him a full season (finally) of major league experience. The fact management refuses to bring the fences in devalues Rizzo’s worth in San Diego, even with or without Alonzo ready to flash his skills. We quite possibly could’ve gotten more, but anytime you can acquire an arm of this magnitude, I’m all for it. It’s called dealing from a position of strength.
Rizzo crushes it in a park closer to the moon than earth and suddenly he’s a cant miss prospect? The number of busted prospects who crushed it in the PCL west is long and undistinguished. Collin Cowgill hit almost as well as Rizzo last year.
I think this trade looks much better for the Padres viewed with the idea that Rizzo’s OPS would likely have been 100-200 pts lower in the international league. Rizzo is a good prospect, but the fact that this was all the padres could get for him tells you how wary the rest of the league is with PCL sluggers.
While I agree that his power was inflated and his AAA average was clearly due to an unsustainable BABIP, you also have to take into account his age and level he’s playing at. It’s not common for a 21 year old to be an everyday starter at AAA. Furthermore, Rizzo has maintained an excellent walk rate through all levels (including short MLB stint) and show good power for such a young hitter for the past couple of years. A previous FG article compared Rizzo’s AAA numbers to the Cubs other first baseman Bryan LaHair – both were outstanding (and in the PCL). The difference is that LaHair is 28, Rizzo is only 21.
I still think the Padres undersold here and should have received more value. Cashner has shown many durability issues and having been a relief pitcher in college, it is difficult to project him as a starter at this point. He’s also starting to reach the point of being only young-ish. A 25 year old with 65 MLB innings pitched doesn’t quite have the upside that I think the Padres believe it does.
The PCL affect is unknowing. There have been lots of prospects that performed well in the PCL and moved onto very successful major league careers. You just have to take the numbers with a grain of salt. Brett Lawrie had a great PCL season, and went on to tear up the MLB for a a little over a month. Rizzo’s swing is what makes him far from a sure thing, and his swing probably benefited quite a bit from playing in the PCL, as it was pretty exposed when he was called up. He’s still a reasonable bet to become an everyday player, field his position, and hit with at least a league average wOBA.
Yes, Cashner has a special arm… If he sustains the GB% he’ll probably do well in SD even if he continues to struggle with the control, but as a starting pitcher, he has a pretty low floor, and those batted ball numbers are bound to shift. I’m just saying that this deal only makes sense if the Padres can get Cashner to fill a regular starting role eventually, but he’s far from showing he can handle it. Luebke was much more polished as a transitioning pitcher, and Cashner hasn’t shown enough durability. I know the Padres like to get their guys started in the bullpen, but if he goes out there and finds early success as a relief pitcher, i think it’s more likely he’ll stay. It’s going to be tough to flip him at the MLB level and even tougher to send him down to learn and stretch out his arm if he struggles.
This is a pretty gruesome trade for Byrnes, in my opinion.