Peavy to the White Sox (For Real This Time)

Jake Peavy has been traded to the Chicago White Sox for the second time this season. Unlike last time, Peavy has waived his no-trade clause to complete the transaction. San Diego gets four arms and Chicago gets a recovering Peavy with a torn ankle tendon. Back in May, Dave covered the Peavy aspect of a potential deal, but this was prior to his injury which could leave him sidelined for the remainder of the season. Most of what Dave wrote then still applies now, so rather than rehashing arguments of the past, let’s look at the eight-armed monster San Diego acquired in return .

Baseball America ranked Aaron Poreda as the White Sox’s best pitching prospect entering the season. A first round pick out in 2007, the 6’6” southpaw throws a hard fastball that can reach the upper-90s, a power slider, and your garden variety change-up. He made his major league debut earlier this season and has worked out of the pen for the White Sox 10 games, striking out 12 in 11 innings and walking 8. To date he’s torn Triple-A Charlotte up, generating 15.2% whiffs as a starter. If that isn’t appealing enough, he also produces a large number of groundballs.

BA listed Clayton Richard as the White Sox third best prospect entering the season. He’s another tall left-handed starter but unlike Poreda doesn’t feature a blazing fastball or powerful breaking pitch. Instead, Richard works in the low-90s with a sinking fastball and mixes a change-up, slider, and occasional cut-fastball into the strike zone. In 136 big league innings, Richard has a 4.28 FIP and has thrown 58% first pitch strikes. He attacks the zone and works quickly.

Adam Russell has worked exclusively out of the bullpen the past two seasons, including 22 appearances for the big league team last season. He was solid, working with a strong fastball that sat at 95, two breaking pitch offerings, and a seldom used change. Russell is 6’8” and throws from a number of arm slots, as you can see here:

russellreleasepoints

Finally we reach 6’6” righty Dexter Carter. A college arm, Carter’s fastball touches the upper-90s and his low-minors numbers are flat out insane; striking out 232 batters in 186 innings and walking only 57. So much for control issues at this point, huh?

The Padres seemed to get a nice return on a guy who they tried dealing two months ago for basically the same thing. Somehow Kenny Williams didn’t mind the injury or the fact that Peavy is becoming less of a bargain by the day and gave Kevin Towers and company four live arms resting on four giants.

The Padres would have to field the tallest rotation in history if Chris Young, Poreda, Richard, and one (or both) of Russell/Carter make it, right?




Print This Post





37 Responses to “Peavy to the White Sox (For Real This Time)”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Didn’t you guys already take a look at the tall rotation idea?

    http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/thats-one-tall-rotation

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Spiby says:

    Did the Padres get more for Peavy than the Indians did for Lee? I think they might have..

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Reuben says:

      Don’t you know that you can’t trade within your own division?

      I mean you’ll look like a fool when 3 of the 4 players that a rival team traded to you are starting on your playoffs bound team, and the stud player that you traded away is getting $8 million on the DL!

      Either that or Kenny overrates Peavy or underrates Lee.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Travis L says:

        I think people consistently overrate Peavy. They realize that PETCO is extreme, but not how extreme. I love Jake, but he’s not quite as elite as people think.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Matthew says:

    funny thing is poreda fastball average MPH is 92.5 in when he pitches in relief. So thats bound to go down when hes a starter and Clayton Richards is 91.7 when hes a starter. So poreda has a blazing fastball while richard works in the low 90s

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Fresh Hops says:

    This is an absurd overpayment for Peavy. Worst move of the deadline, by far.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • joser says:

      That was my first take on it too — along with noting, as Spiby did, it looks like more than the Indians got for Lee. I reserve final judgement until I have more time looking at all those minor leaguers, but this could be the start of a very good thing in San Diego.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • dickey simpkins says:

      Absurd? Clayton Richard was hanging onto dear life as the 5th starter a few weeks ago, now with 2 strong starts he’s a great haul? He’s a backend starter, Russell is….bad. Carter is 22 years old in A ball, the only real prize here is Poreda, who has the potential to become an nice starting pitcher.

      The concern here is how healthy Peavy will be from here on out. The Sox have one of the better medical staffs in the league, and Don Cooper and Ozzie are pretty underrated in controlling the team’s staff, which again rates as one of the best this season. Kenny Williams loves to gamble, there are some clear negatives here (health, high salary), but paired with Danks, Floyd, and Buehrle this is going to be a move that pays off.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • joe says:

        The question is less can Peavy stay healthy and more can Peavy pitch outside of PETCO…

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Stealfirstbase says:

        I’m all for this trade from the White Sox’s perspective. Peavy is by far the best player in this deal. To deny that is to deny reality. And the only way to acquire a pitcher of Peavy’s stature is to develop them or trade for them, because if they hit the open market Boston (Matsuzaka) or NY (Sabathia, Burnett) will sign them. Again, that’s just a fact.

        As for the players the White Sox gave up: Richard is the best of the bunch. He has only one ML caliber pitch, a good sinking fastball that he can amp up to 95 MPH, with a great temperment who likes to attack hitters, as you say. I’ve been very, very unimpressed with Poreda, who like Richard likes a ML secondary pitch of any type, and who doesn’t seem to have the good fastball that was advertised, and who seemed afraid to throw strikes to hitters in the major leagues. I see Poreda’s future as more of a ‘thrower’ in the bullpen, and Richard as a long term setup man or 3-5 starter, depending on the secondary pitches he’s able to master.

        Russell is fungible, and Carter is a two pitch pitcher who strikes out a ton of guys in the low minors. He leads the minor leagues in Ks this year, but the White Sox have traded away minor league K leaders twice in the last three years: Gio Gonzalez and Brandon McCarthy. So far, they don’t regret either of those trades.

        Two of these pitchers have performed only in AAA, Carter has performed only in low A ball, and only Richard has yet performed competently in the major leagues.

        Lastly, Kenny Williams has yet to trade away a prospect that’s come back to haunt him. The internet community eviscerated him for trading away Jeremy Reed (BP #2 prospect), Chris Young (BP #3 prospect), Gio Gonzalez (Twice!), Brandon McCarthy, and Faustino De Los Santos. Not a single one have the White Sox come to regret in any fashion whatsoever.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • BX says:

        Isn’t it too early to talk about Gio Gonzalez flaming out?

        He’s got all of 13 starts over parts of 2 seasons at the MLB level and he’s still K-ing over a batter an inning in MLB, and he’s not 24 until September.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • scott says:

      I really don’t think Poreda is anymore than a late-inning reliever. Quick, name a pitching prospect that Kenny Williams has sent off that has become something.

      Gio Gonzalez – bad
      Faustino de los Santos – Tommy John mere months after being traded
      Brandon McCarthy – bad

      Williams turned those players into Jon Danks and Gavin Floyd. The latter who’s turning into one hell of a pitcher.

      And now Poreda and Richard. Neither of these two have proven much of anything at the majors, and Poreda’s fastball was hardly over-powering at the majors. He does get a ton of weekly hit ground balls, but I truly believe he ends up in the pen.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • marcello says:

        Soooo, three guys? I’m convinced…

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • scott says:

        Name me a prospect that’s ever turned into anything that he traded away. I won’t say this isn’t a risk, but FanGraphs, and a lot of people here are overrating the prospects in this trade. Poreda is a one pitch pitcher right now. Richard is, at best, a #4. Russell is a throw in, and Carter is at high A.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • BX says:

        Freddy Garcia was turned into Gavin Floyd.

        Gio and FDLS were turned into 1 year of Swisher, Jeff Marquez, Wilson Betemit, and Jhonny Nunez. In other words, a pile of nothing.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Wally says:

        And then Williams went and dumped Swisher, who’s now having a typical season for him, for nada.

        Just because 3 pitching prospects Williams traded recently haven’t amounted to much yet, doesn’t mean this was a good deal. Peavey’s on the DL for fuck’s sake.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Matt says:

    You guys are over rating the guys the Sox gave up pretty heavily. Poreda has a live fastball, he never reaches the upper 90’s however. He sits around 93-94 on a good day. He has good movement on it as well though, it’s a very good pitch. His slider and his change suck however. He’s 22 so he has plenty of time but he’s no sure thing as a starter.

    Russell is garbage, basically a replacement level reliever. He migh become a solid middle relief guy in the NL West though.

    Carter is a 22 year old dominating A ball. High upside but also easily flame out.

    And finally Richard is the key to the deal IMO. I didn’t want to see him traded and I really see his floor as a 4th starter and and his upside seems to be as a 2 or 3, depending on the team. I really like his approach as he tries to throw strikes but also will miss some bats. Good fastball, decent enough change and a good late breaking slider.

    Command on the fastball is key with him and will probably make or break his career.

    This trade is very even IMO and cannot be said to be a clear victory for either side at this point.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Fresh Hops says:

    A general response to the above comments:

    The White Sox get to pay Peavy his market value, a honor in exchange for which they gave up four pitching prospects, at least two of who (Richard and Poreda) have a good chance of being major league pitchers that will be paid significantly less than their market value. At the rates they are paying Peavy, he’s nothing special.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Matt says:

    Of course, if you get a chance to acquire a player that’s been 20% better than league average over his career, and said player is entering what should be his prime…

    I mean come on. The fact of the matter is that Peavy wasn’t a FA. I don’t understand evaluating the move as if he was.

    If staring pitchers 20% better than average were easy to come buy then you wouldn’t have to give up the package the Sox did.

    The WS have been arguably the best franchise in all of baseball at keeping their starters healthy. They have a proven record. That said, they are clearly rolling the dice.

    This is a move that could easily go either way. Standing on some platform of “obvious win” for the Padres seems pretty silly.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Fresh Hops says:

      Why does the fact that he’s not a free agent change his value? That makes very little sense.

      The reason to evaluate this move “as if he were a free agent” is that such an evaluation reflects what the Sox could buy in a free market with the same amount of money.

      “If staring pitchers 20% better than average were easy to come buy then you wouldn’t have to give up the package the Sox did.”

      You don’t: see the Cliff Lee trade.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Travis L says:

      I see it this way — as a Padre fan, I’m ecstatic about this trade. Love love love it. As a ChiSox fan, I have an OK feeling, assuming Peavy comes back healthy. And I’m a little worried about the rest of his contract.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Scott says:

    This is the best move the Sox could have made and is exactly what we in SD expected from the cheap Kevin Towers and company. Anyone on the Padres who is worth more than minor league money gets sent away and is usually replaced by minor league caliber players. I am happy for Peavy though, I have been watching him since he first got to San Diego and I know he is a team first pitcher. The Sox will be happy to have him on the mound in the playoffs

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. Scottwood says:

    Seems like a fair deal. Prospects may or may not pan out and Peavy sets up a great top 4 through 2012. I’m not sure if this will even help them this season but it will more than help them for the next 3 seasons. It is a high risk, high reward deal that is a good risk for the Sox to take, imo.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. SleepNowInTheFire says:

    I want to know why the Pads weren’t asking for a couple pitchers, a couple bats. I mean, 4 pitchers? Pitching is easy to fill for the Pads. They don’t need 4 more young pitchers…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. Nick says:

    This is an amazing deal from the Padres perspective. Peavy is still a very good pitcher, but he will definitely pitch worse outside of Pecto and moving to the better league. He’s probably a 4-5 WAR pitcher right now, making his 3 year 52 million contract only a slight bargain.

    Peroda and Richard on the other hand are capable of being league average (2 WAR) starters right now, and they are going to be paid shit for the next 3-4 years. That’s not to mention that most people think Peroda has the potential to be a lot better than that.

    Those two players alone make it a steal for the Padres, when you consider the surplus value of cost controlled players. Then they got someone who looks like a very good prospect in Dexter Carter, and an interesting reliever in Adam Russell.

    This is simply an amazing haul for the Padres. It’s not necessarily bad from the White Sox perspective if Peavy helps them get to the playoffs a couple times in the next 3 years, but they paid a very hefty price

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Stealfirstbase says:

      Again, I do disagree with this assessment. I think Poreda will find–or has already found–that while a 93-94 MPH fastball allows you to have success in the minor leagues, in the majors that fastball alone will not lead to any type of success. He’s got work to do if he wants to become a reliever, much less a starter, in MLB.

      I’ve also seen enough Carters and Russells go through the White Sox organization to be completely confident about losing them. I have doubts about Carter’s ability to continue pitching well at higher levels of the minor leagues, much less the major leagues. And Russell’s just fungible. Every single organization has 4 Russells in the system right now.

      Richard is decent right now, though, with the chance to be a good bit better.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. Erick says:

    “The Padres seemed to get a nice return on a guy who they tried dealing two months ago for basically the same thing.”

    Speculation is that that the Sox offered Dan Hudson instead of Dexter Carter two months ago (I believe the two prospects after Poreda/Richard were never named last time). That’s just speculation, but it would be a sensible difference between the two offers.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • BX says:

      Speculation is also that the Sox offered Lance Broadway, and Russell is probably an improvement over Broadway.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Terry says:

        This is simply not true. Broadway was not in the original deal. San Diego had choices in addition to Poreda and Richard. Hudson would have been one and surely a player with higher upside than Broadway would have been another.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. Terry says:

    Trades are not zero sum games. I think the key is,

    “He’s probably a 4-5 WAR pitcher right now, making his 3 year 52 million contract only a slight bargain.”

    Exactly. It is not NECESSARY from the Sox perspective he outperform his contract. Floyd and Danks can do that. Adding a 4-5 WAR pitcher to their rotation for the next 3 years projects well for the White Sox in the Central division.

    Winning the division is like kind of the point.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Scottwood says:

      Even as a Tigers fan, I agree. This deal should be great for you guys in 2010-2012. I’m not sold on Peavy helping you much this season but that is a small matter when comparing what he could help you win in each of the following 3 seasons.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • BobbyMac says:

      I agree – I’m not sure why this is such a difficult point for people to accept.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Christo P. Ney says:

      Exactly! Thank. You.

      The Sox will be paying around $35 million for the top four guys in their rotation next year, a group that stacks up with any team in baseball.

      This is assuming Danks finally signs a long-term deal starting at $3-4 million in 2010, $4-5 million in 2011 and $5-6 million in 2012. Reasonable to think (might be conservative but it’s reasonable).

      Buehrle, if healthy and with minor regression in successive years until 2012 (assuming he re-ups after 2011, not a foregone conclusion), it’s reasonable to think his year-to-year value would average $17 million.

      Let’s put Peavy, if healthy and given some regression with the switch of leagues, right at his contract numbers ($15, $16, $17 M in the three).

      Danks seems to have figured it out. He was worth $25 million last year, but let’s say there will be some ups and downs and put him at a $16 million average for the next three years.

      Floyd’s a bit of a wild card but he was worth $11 million last year and $15 million so far this year. Let’s say a $14 million average on the next three.

      Total it up.

      2010: Commitment – $35 million Value – $62 million
      2011: Commitment – $40 million Value – $63 million
      2012: Commitment – $45 million Value – $64 million

      Only one of those pitchers have a history of injuries, and that’s Jake Peavy.

      And every one of them have the potential and history of outperforming their contract.

      Thome, Contreras and Dotel are off the books after this year, totaling $29 million in freed-up money. And Quentin, Beckham and Ramirez are under control and cheap.

      With the trade, no offensive prospects were touched. Neither were Danks and Floyd. And Daniel Hudson, the guy rumored to be in the May deal, also wasn’t traded. He’s currently is shutting down everyone in Double-A.

      In other words, the Sox are fine w/r/t payroll flexibility and talent and should be able to field a team with the best rotation in the AL while keeping their payroll at or around $100 million. Not bad.

      A minor point that also shouldn’t be forgotten. Peavy will be facing the two worst teams in the AL – the Indians and Royals – 18 times a season where, on average, he will face them seven times a year.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Mike says:

      Actually, winning the World Series is the point. Yes, can’t get there without making the playoffs, but if this bunch staggered in, they’d have about as much chance as last years group.

      I enjoy the economic breakdown and I agree that it’s great to get production from cheap players, but the Royals and Pirates have had cost controlled players for years. The way I look at it, the White Sox have two ways this can fail – Peavy can fail to produce, or payroll inflexibilty can prevent them from improving in other areas. The Padres have two ways they can benefit from this deal – cheap production from the players they got, or payroll flexibility to make moves and improve. Now it’s easy to use projections or look back in five years and see if Peavy outperformed Poreda/Richard/Russell/Carter, but the second element is very difficult because it varies by team – there is no salary cap. Some teams don’t care if they are over budget, they will overpay for another player. Some teams don’t care if they are awful as long as payroll is low.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. Ryan says:

    you guys will be very happy with peavy!!! he is a hell of competitor so for those of you saying the whitesox overpaid, just wait and you will see what I mean!!! were talkin about a front of the rotation guy and consumite team player, he plays for the name on the front not the back!!! believe me it is hard to see jake go, he has been the staple of our rotation for a long time and will be the same in chicago.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. May not be much of an addition this year, but for the next few years to come the White Sox could be dangerous.

    http://realfakesports.blogspot.com/2009/07/tim-mccarver-on-peavy-trade-peavy-when.html

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>