Pedro Showing Off
Last night, Pedro Martinez reminded everyone why he’s going to Cooperstown when he retires. Unable to find a job until the second half of the season, Martinez was something of an experiment for the Phillies. Consider it a successful gamble.
His fastball hit 92 last night, and he’s averaging 88-89 with it again, not that far off from where it was in his heyday. His change-up is still as nasty as ever, and he had it working last night, getting swinging strikes with four of the 20 that he threw. Even after adjusting for the fact that the Giants offense is pretty miserable, Pedro was still terrific last night – 7 innings, 5 hits, 0 walks, 9 strikeouts, 87 pitches.
For the season, Pedro has now thrown 23 innings and ran a 4/23 BB/K rate. He’s still prone to the longball, but even giving up frequent home runs, his FIP stands at 3.74. Given his command of the strike zone and ability to keep hitters off balance, Martinez is still capable of shutting teams down on any given night. Durability is going to be a constant question with him, but his ability to get big league hitters out should not be.
The rejuvenation of a former ace coming off arm problems serves as yet another reminder that we don’t really have any credible way of judging when a player is washed up. Seemingly every time someone publishes a eulogy on an active player, he finds the fountain of youth and makes them eat their words.
Maybe Pedro wasn’t so crazy to ask for $5 million last winter. He’s still got the stuff to be worth twice that.
“His fastball hit 92 last night, and he’s averaging 88-89 with it again, not that far off from where it was in his heyday. ”
I don’t know where to find pitchfx data from the late 90′s, so this is admittedly an anecdotal comment, but I believe Pedro used to be able to hit the high 90s with his fastball. If I’m correct, then I think 88-89mph is pretty far off from where he used to be.
Still, that isn’t here or there when it comes to Pedro’s performance last night. The one thing I’d point out to those who said he out-pitched Lincecum (which wasn’t stated in this article, but I’ve read elsewhere this morning) is that he was facing a Giants lineup which is one of the worst in baseball, while Lincecum was facing a Phillies lineup that is one of the best.
not to be snooty, but matty, you know the reason you come to fangraphs is so you don’t have to go to garbage baseball media outlets who act like a pitching matchup is a steel cage death match. so my response to the comparison of the lineups last night is: obviously. By the way, we don’t talk near enough about Jayson Werth. Around a .900 ops and now 30 bombs and solid defense for, what, $2.5 million this year?
Oh, and Long Live Pedro Martinez.
We’re talking average fastball velocity. The last year we have on this site is 2002, when he was returning from his 2001 rotator cuff injury and had an average velocity below 91. There’s no doubt he was a little slower after his injury than in his money years of ’99-’00.
However, I think Pedro’s fastball velocity was always overstated. I watched him a lot in the late ’90s and he usually topped out in the 94-95 range, at least according to the TV gun. So his average velocity was probably not more than 92.
I remember Pedro topping out at 97-98, sitting 94-95 in 1999. Those are the readings I remember from the TV (MSG network when he was facing the Yanks), so they’re not as good as something like pitchfx. That said, yeah, I think he’s lost 4-5 mph since his prime.
His velocity with the Phils is comparable, however, to his years with the Mets. This would lead you to believe that he has been a bit lucky so far, especially when you ad in his high strand rate and the fact that his LD% is down from his previous couple years. He has also out performed his xBABIP, and his walk rate is completely unsustainable (just over 1).
I’ve said it before, Pedro strikes me as an ex-juicer who is still riding a hangover from his steroid years. In terms of raw ability, he is absolutely nowhere near is late 90′s seasons. He is also a far cry from his early 2000 years. In his last three years with the mets, he was very mediocre, a guy who could handle about one go-round through the batting order before getting touched up. Even when he pitched well, you got the sense he was only one mistake away from a big inning.
He has been a nice pitcher so far for the Phils, but theres just no way he will keep it up.
I think people forget just how dominant pedro was from 1997-2002. Go back and look at the numbers. They were ridiculous. Pedro may be on a bit of a hot (read: lucky) streak now, but IMHO he’s due for some serious regression…
Yeah, my memory is probably off, but for some reason I remember those reports of him hitting 97/98 as being mythical.
I honestly cannot remember ever seeing him top 96… anyone know where to find some Petey footage?
While obviously anecdotal and unverified, this is how the New York Times described Pedro’s velocity during his 17 strikeout performance at Yankee Stadium:
“Derek Jeter was Martinez’s first strikeout victim, on a 97 mile-an-hour fastball in the first inning, and Chuck Knoblauch was his 17th, the last out of the game, on a 97 m.p.h. fastball. Every Yankee hitter struck out at least once, including Darryl Strawberry, who pinch-hit in the ninth inning.”
Obviously, the reporter (Buster Olney?) is likely just recording what the stadium radar gun displayed, and those are notoriously unreliable. Still, contemporary if unscientific support for Pedro’s velocity during his heyday.
Source:
http://www.nytimes.com/1999/09/11/sports/baseball-1-hit-17-strikeouts-no-way-for-the-yankees.html
I swore that Pedro touched 97mph as an Expo (best 12 dollars i’ve ever spent on a baseball game). I have a terrible memory though, but i do remember his career being split into three distinct phases: Fastball Phase, I Don’t need to throw the fastball that hard phase, and the decline phase.
If Pedro can float somewhere between the “i’m a real pitcher” and the “decline phase”, he’s going to be worth the money.
When you consider whom he was facing last night, I think that was the best you’ll get from Pedro. Pedro’s always seemed to pitch his best against players that are concerned superior to him. Lincecum’s the best in the league, and Pedro definitely had a chip on his shoulder.
Gee, Wrighteous thinking some is an ex-juicer. Now there’s a shocker.
^Someone…brain’s already in weekend mode apparently.
‘He did it facing a bad lineup’ is one of the weakest excuses of all time. Last time I checked, good pitchers pad their stats against weak teams. If a pitcher won 20 games, do you honestly think that every single one came against a team with a winning record and a top offence? Is Adam Wainwright a poor pitcher because his last four wins have come against four lesser offences? Yet previous to this four game winning streak, his last win was a shutout aginst the Dodgers. I could pick out a million examples of the above. It’s easy. Pedro has a proven hall of fame track record so him pitching shouldn’t come as a shock. Not to mention one of thoe ugly intangibles creeping into the picture…that being perhaps he is jacked up to be part of a team headed to the playoffs and is, like Floyd Mayweather Jr told us to do, stepping his game up.
http://unobstructedview.wordpress.com/2009/08/07/some-things-to-ponder/
I couldn’t agree more.
Sorry, wrong link.
http://unobstructedview.wordpress.com/2009/09/06/pedro-showing-off-fangraphs-baseball/
For S’s and giggles, I busted out an old copy of “The Scouting Report” from 1996 — the last one I have, reflecting the season of 1995 (one year before his breakout season in 1996). I stopped purchasing those publications then.
“A pitcher with a fastball with good (mid-90s) velocity and good life, Pedro delivers his #1 pitch from three quarters, striking fear in the hearts of many skittish righthanded batters who know his heater will most often run inside to them. He will also bore and sink the two-seamer. Martinez’s breaking pitch is an average-plus curve, but his change-up is a solid plus pitch.”
Obviously he improved a few things along the way — his changeup, for one. But his velocity did sit routinely in the mid 90s during his Expos and early Boston days. If he is 88-89 now, he’ll have to rely offspeed pitches, gile, and pitching “know how” to get batters out and maintain his success.
So far the results have been mixed.
but his ability to get big league hitters out should not be.
I find the abouve comment curious. Where were the “Pedro can still pitch comments prior to Pedro’s last couple of starts? There were none because no one knew. Suddenly nobody should doubt Pedro’s ability to get big league hitters out. The writer’s assertion is wrong, principally because of his constant spouting regarding sample size, position fickleness, and constant variations of success from start to start.
exactly. ya know, eventually guys DO have to be written off. Although i for one did not doubt Pedro had something like this in him, just given the velo he was hitting even before last night. Dude can pitch, and he ain’t 50 years old. Hey, even Satchel Paige retired.
This article is pointless. He pitched against the Giants. This is no rejuvenation, this is what every pitcher does against the Giants. Maybe you should write about Paul Maholm or Mike Hampton or Bobby Parnell or Mike Pelfrey or Eric Stults or Todd Wellemeyer or etc etc etc. What do all these guys have in common? They all had their best games of the season/career vs the Giants lineup this season and then went to on to get shelled in their next starts. So no, I don’t think you adjusted enough for how bad the Giants lineup is when writing this.
The guy you should write in article was the losing pitcher in that game, who, for some crazy reason, may not even win the Cy Young award this year because the voters are borderline retarded.
Dude lets settle some differences here:
hyyp://zonazapper.mybrute.com
Agreed. Cy Young voters have proven that they have no respect for Tim Lincecum.
A bit of a stretch to say a 9k/0bb outing is what every pitcher does against the Giants. One game OPS is obviously a small sample, but for what it’s worth, the Giants had .615 against Pedro compared to their average of .662 in road games. Probably a slightly better than average lineup for them last night, sad to say (Molina instead of Whiteside and no Manny Burriss who took up 200 AB’s earlier in the season). Taking into account CBP, probably a 10-15% better than average showing on OPS, a little better than that taking into account K/BB. Maybe not as phenomenal as it’s been made out to be, but very solid outing.
high strike out, low walk games are a common occurrence against the Giants lineup….especially by pitchers who are bad at throwing strikes and walk a lot of batters. They’re dead last in BB% by a significant margin, so yes you should put very little, if anything, in to this performance. It happens all the time, and he’s most likely going to get shelled in his next start.
well, maybe i should reconsider. I mean he did pitch a great game. he can now say he joined the likes of
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=290717123 – Paul Maholom
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=290718123
Charlie Morton
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=290509119 – Eric Stults be sure to check this one, Pedro can’t touch this performance
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=290814121 – Bobby Parnell
and many more
Be sure to check out what all of these pitchers did before and after the games.
So your theory is that any pitcher who pitches good against the Giants is actually a bad pitcher? Pedro kind of has a prior reputation as a good pitcher.
no, I’m saying that this performance is not worth writing an article about. The only thing we learned is that Pedro can school a minor league lineup.
That’s funny, if every pitcher was doing this against the Giants, they should be 0-162, not contending for the wild card spot.
And you should tell Happ that too, he should feel embarrassed to give up what the Giants have been averaging all season long, 4 runs.
You should also tell Chris Carpenter to hang himself in shame, here he was, throwing shutouts and shutting down every team he faced, not giving up more than 3 runs per game, 1.78 ERA, then he gives up 6 runs to the Giants. After that, he’s airtight again, only one start with more than 3 ER (4ER). The Giants scored the most runs against him in any start this season.
The fact is, Pedro had a very nice K/BB even before he faced the Giants, he just was getting hit hard before and suffered some bad luck with the home run ball. It was not hard to see that he would get that back against some team he faces this year.
I would also note that Pedro is pretty fresh right now while everyone else is scuffling with ailments and tiredness that builds up over a 162 game season.
Why can’t people accept that Pedro had a nice game last time and you just have to tip your hat to him?
I was at the game last night, and from where we were sitting the umpire had a very generous strike zone. The fact that there were 20 Ks and 1 BB from the starters may say there were two great performances, or it may partly indicate that there was a wide strike zone that was being called. Pedro did get some swing-and-misses, true, and I enjoyed the duel, but I would not conclude from this one game that he is physically back. All it proved to me is that he is a great pitcher and recognized the strike zone and the weak lineup he had to deal with and attacked with what seemed like a pretty heavy diet of fastballs.
http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/zoneplotn.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2009/month_09/day_03/gid_2009_09_03_sfnmlb_phimlb_1//pbp/pitchers/118377.xml&sp_type=1
that image would seem to indicate that lincecum was getting many more favorable calls than pedro.
Thanks, that’s interesting and consistent with what I thought which was that the calls were on the one side of the plate. But why do you think “many” more favorable calls? It looks like 10-7 to me.
another reason there were lots of strikeouts in this game is because the major league leader in strikeouts was pitching against a guy who is one of the three best pitchers of his generation.
Who have K/BB rates of 3.18 and 4.16 for their careers, not 20.
Lincecum was getting some pretty favorable calls though, I can recall a few inside breaking balls against Utley and Howard that clearly were not strikes but got called strikes.
+1
We need to remember that Pedro is letting it go right now in hopes that he sees some postseason starts. To make the leap that the guy is going to continue throwing like this based on a couple of games is less than I’d ever expect from fangraphs.
it was the giants.
He has also pitched against other teams, remarkably. He had a K/BB of 14/3 coming into this game. No one’s saying Old Pedro is back, but the guy can obviously still pitch well enough to draw an MLB salary.
23 IP is a terribly small sample size, but you don’t really luck your way into striking out a batter per inning in MLB. Maybe a little bit of luck and a weak line up helps, but it should be pretty obvious Pedro has some value left in him. I completely agree that his durability is a huge question mark, and I’m skeptical he can pitch every fifth day for another month and a half, but his stuff is still good. Maybe he has a future in the bullpen, but for now, WTF, the Phils should throw him out there and see what they got. They have very little to lose.
Um…Pedro was sitting 85-87 most of the time last year. Thus, the velocity is much improved than he was in 2008. He’s more comparable to the 2004 version of himself so far than the 2000 version. He’s still got great location and movement and enough velocity to keep hitters honest.
Even after adjusting for park factor and for the Giants’ “lineup,” Pedro pitched really well last night. I’m pretty sure anyone can come up with a bunch of reasons why they think Pedro didn’t pitch well last night or why Pedro isn’t “really” as good as he looked last night. Those would be people who didn’t watch the game.
Those of us who actually watched the game, and didn’t simply look up the stats, know that Pedro and Lincecum were dominant except for the solo HRs both pitchers surrendered.
I don’t think Cameron is trying to convince anyone that 2009 Pedro is 1999 Pedro. But there’s no denying the skill, experience, and talent of a Hall of Fame pitcher is worth more than a couple million bucks. If you look around the league at pitchers who make $10 million per year (as Cameron alluded to at the end of the article), there are plenty of names who aren’t as valuable as Pedro.
You can look at any stat you want; you can denigrate the Giant line up all you want, but you cannot deny that Pedro excelled in the one area a pitcher must excel, no matter the opponent: he threw strikes. He’s one of my all time favorite pitchers of all time-and at the very least, he’s going to get to go out on his own terms.
Now, how about all of the people that insisted Nelson Cruz and Ryan Ludwick were just 4A players.
Ludwick? What has he done but proven that an inflated BABIP can make a mediocre player look great?
If I’m not mistaken, a player’s BABIP should only be compared to his own career average BABIP to get a true indication of whether or not he is getting lucky. Obviously, last year that was the case. This year, however, his BABIP is lower than his career average while producing an ISO of .201 (same as Hanley Ramirez). I just don’t get why everyone can’t stand this guy. Is it so hard to admit that he is a late-blooming, above average offensive major leaguer?
It’s probably pretty hard to write multiple baseball articles for multiple websites every single day, but the inconsistent analysis on this site is sometimes really frustrating. Why should 23 innings convince us of anything one way or another about Pedro Martinez? Especially in light of the recent to-do on this site about how any pitcher can look awesome or terrible in small samples, why would you publish an article like this? Pedro could easily be awful in his next 23 innings, just like he was in his last 22 innings (4 starts) last year (20 k, 12 bb, 2 hr, 19 r), and it would be exactly as important as these latest 23 good innings, which is: hardly at all.
Pedro had a labrum tear, right? And we’re looking for phantom magic pills to explain his loss of velocity?
That’s taking Occam, turning him upside down and shaking to see if you can get some loose change out of his pocket.
His velocity in his heyday was in the mid to high 90′s, it’s simply incorrect to say his high 80′s stuff now is close to what it was back then.
Well, the sample size is too small at this point to make a definitive statistical statement as to whether Pedro is back (and as NEPP mentioned, I think it is more reasonable to expect a healthy Pedro to put up numbers these days similar to ’04-’05). The one thing that I think can be said from watching his starts so far with the Phillies is that he seems a lot more comfortable on the mound and more consistent with his motion and arm slot than he was the last couple of years with the Mets. In other words, he looks healthy, and as such I expect he will continue to pitch well down the stretch and into the playoffs.
Ok. The current Mets lineup is not that great either although it had Wright and Beltran back, but he has had two more good starts with insanely high pitch counts, and the Nationals do have a decent offense, and he has continued to put up good numbers although the absurdly low walk rate would be hard to sustain.