Phillies Pay Premium For Ben Revere

Bad news for Michael Bourn – the Phillies just emphatically closed the door on bringing back the free agent center fielder, giving up Vance Worley and top prospect Trevor May to acquire Revere from the Twins. Given the price that we just saw Denard Span go for last week, this is a bit of a shocking price for Revere, and looks like a significant overpay for the Phillies.

Revere is perhaps the most extreme speed-and-defense specialist in Major League Baseball. In just over 1,000 career plate appearances, he has a grand total of 33 extra base hits, primarily because he hits the ball on the ground more than any other player. Last year, only Revere (67%) and Derek Jeter (62%) posted ground ball rates over 60%, and even Jeter isn’t particularly close to Revere in frequency of hitting worm burners. As a burner with good wheels, this is the best way to maximize his offensive value, but it also means that he’ll never hit for any power whatsoever.

Add in the fact that Revere is a hyper-aggressive hitter who rarely draws a walk, and Revere ends up as a singles-only slap hitter who is simply not a good offensive player. Of the 119 players to accumulate 1,000+ plate appearances over the last two years, only four — Gordon Beckham, Darwin Barney, Drew Stubbs, and Cliff Pennington — have posted a lower wRC+ than Revere. A .325 BABIP in 2012 allowed him to push his wRC+ all the way up to 88, but without a drastic improvement in his walk walk rate, that’s probably his offensive ceiling.

And, for that kind of hitter, the only way to be an above average player is to maintain out-of-this-world defensive ratings. Last year, Revere posted +3.4 WAR for the Twins by racking up a +16.4 UZR, partially due to spending most of his time in the corner outfield spots due to the presence of Denard Span. If you combine his UZR with the positional adjustment, he comes out as a +13 defender, which is also what he’s averaged in his career. Over the last five years, there have been eight every day non-catcher position players who have averaged +13 UZR+POS per 600 plate appearances: Brendan Ryan, Franklin Gutierrez, J.J. Hardy, Chase Utley, Clint Barmes, Nyjer Morgan, Adrian Beltre, and Evan Longoria.

Essentially, we have to believe that Revere is truly one of the game’s elite defensive players to believe that he’s going to main this level of defensive value going forward. Given that the Twins used him in a corner in deference to Span — a good defender who isn’t viewed at that kind of level — we have to be a little skeptical of the idea that Revere is the rangiest center fielder in the game, and of course we’re dealing with a career sample of just over 2,000 big league innings. Based on what we know about Revere’s speed, we shouldn’t regress him back against league average, but we still need to regress Revere’s defensive projections a fair amount. Realistically, 2,000 innings of excellent UZRs for a speed guy who got to the Majors despite a lite bat means that we should probably see Revere as a something like a +5 center fielder going forward. We have enough evidence to believe that he’s going to continue to be above average. We do not have enough evidence to say that he’s definitively one of the best defensive players alive.

And, if Revere is a +5 defender in center field, even with his elite baserunning value, then he’s more of a +2.0 to +2.5 win player than the +3.5 win guy he graded out as last year. An average starter, essentially. With five years of team control, including two more at the league minimum, an average player is a valuable asset. But, to acquire that average player, the Phillies parted with a Major League average starting pitcher — and that may be underselling Vance Worley — and their best prospect, Trevor May.

Worley comes with some red flags after finishing the year on the DL following elbow surgery, and his strikeout rate is based mostly on getting an absurdly high number of called strikes, but in 277 big league innings, he’s posted a ERA-/FIP-/xFIP- line of 90/92/98. Like with Revere, there’s a decent chance that he’s not able to sustain that level of performance going forward, but he’s shown an ability to throw strikes, get some ground balls, and get enough called strikes to make the overall package work. If the elbow surgery is a sign of future arm problems — the Phillies would know that better than anyone else, of course — then Worley’s stuff may degrade to the point where he’s more of a back-end starter, but he’s still likely to be a useful rotation filler and clearly has the ability to be more than that when healthy.

Like Revere, Worley also has five years of team control left, so swapping the two would have essentially be a lateral move. And, given the two team’s various needs, probably a pretty fair challenge trade. There are reasons to prefer either Revere or Worley, but their future values look similar, and they are in the exact same position in terms of arbitration and free agency.

So, the real mystery here is why the Phillies felt it necessary to add May to make this deal. May isn’t particularly close to the Majors, but he has a big arm and has already reached Double-A, so with some refinements to his command, he could be an above average hurler, or else he could end up as a power reliever out of the bullpen. May is a similar prospect to Alex Meyer, who was the sole return Minnesota got in return for Denard Span.

While I felt that deal was too light for the Twins, getting that same caliber of prospect to offset whatever small difference exists between Revere and Worley is a huge win for Minnesota. They essentially turned an average-ish center fielder into an average-ish starting pitcher and a quality pitching prospect. I’m not generally a huge fan of building around pitching, but this is a deal the Twins couldn’t pass up.

For the Phillies, they end up borrowing from Peter to pay Paul, filling their CF hole by creating one in the rotation. Kyle Kendrick and Tyler Cloyd are now slotted in as their fourth and fifth starters, and both are significantly worse than Worley. At most, the Phillies probably add +1 win in this exchange, and that win cost them their best young arm. They would likely have been better off keeping Worley and using May and additional prospects to outbid the Nationals for Span, thus acquiring the better Twins center fielder and keeping him out of Washington. Instead, they felt the need to downgrade their big league rotation to acquire Revere, and have essentially cashed in a valuable big league arm and a top prospect for Juan Pierre 2.0.

There’s nothing wrong with having an in-his-prime Juan Pierre as a role player on your team, but paying a premium to get Juan Pierre has never been a great idea, and it isn’t a great idea now that this skillset simply goes by another name.



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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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P
Guest
P
3 years 7 months ago

In the paragraph about defense, “Span” shows up several times when I think you mean “Revere.”

ralph
Guest
ralph
3 years 7 months ago

Should have opened with this:

Now here’s a little story I got to tell
About three bad brothers you know so well
It started way back in history
With Revere, Trevor May, and Vance Worley

cass
Guest
cass
3 years 7 months ago

That is a really bad attempt at poetry.

Your rhyme scheme and meter don’t match the original and “history” doesn’t even come close to rhyming with “Vance Worley”.

Beastie Boys
Guest
Beastie Boys
3 years 7 months ago

Fail.

leoleo
Member
leoleo
3 years 7 months ago

but “cass” does rhyme with “ass”

ralph
Guest
ralph
3 years 7 months ago

You’re right, “Mike D” totally rhymes better with “history.”

Actually, my biggest regret might have been not deciding to make Ruben Amaro “Amrock” so that the last two lines of my proposed intro would have been

With Amrock, Trevor May, and Vance Worley
They got a little Philly named Ben Revere.

Paul Revere
Guest
Paul Revere
3 years 7 months ago

In concur

me again
Guest
me again
3 years 7 months ago

who invited this guy??

Bill
Guest
Bill
3 years 7 months ago

If Loretta Lynn can rhyme hard with tired, Vance Worley and History rhyme just fine. If may be a rape rhyme, but it’s a legitimate rape rhyme, damn it.

sameulraphael
Guest
3 years 7 months ago

Did it like this,
Did it like that,
Did it with a wiffle ball bat

Balthazar
Guest
Balthazar
3 years 7 months ago

Did it like this;
Did it like that;
Did it with a twist and a whiffle ball bat

I like your destination, SamRaph, I just took the scenic route . . ..

ns978
Guest
ns978
3 years 7 months ago

We were all waiting for Ruben Amaro to make an irrational decision. It gives you that “at home” feeling.

Nik
Guest
Nik
3 years 7 months ago

Nothing irrational here. Irrational would have been to sign Bourn.

Ryan Howard
Guest
Ryan Howard
3 years 7 months ago

Keep telling yourself that, buddy.

JWP
Guest
JWP
3 years 7 months ago

Or trade for Michael Young…

Big Jgke
Member
Big Jgke
3 years 7 months ago

Not making the MOST irrational decision, doesn’t disqualify this one from irrationality.

Nik
Guest
Nik
3 years 7 months ago

Dave, please check your references to “Span” and “Revere”. It really looks like you’re mixing them up in a bunch of places.

Heads Up
Guest
Heads Up
3 years 7 months ago

Dave–a heads up. Trevor May sucks. The idea that May is close to as good as Alex Meyer is laughable. May has absolutely no command whatsoever. Did you even check with prospect people before writing that? May is behind at least Biddle and Morgan as Phils pitching prospects, and probably Pettibone and Ethan Martin as well. If May ever starts 20 games in the majors, I’ll be shocked.

tbr
Guest
tbr
3 years 7 months ago

There aren’t too many Phillies top prospect lists out yet – in fact, I can’t find any – but, at least on this pitcher-only prospect lis,t May ranks 32nd in all of baseball, and as far as Phillies pitching prospects go only Biddle is ahead of him at #24. And Alex Meyer is smack in the middle between them at #28. That would make May one of the top 100 prospects in baseball easily.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/10/8/3474586/preliminary-top-50-pitching-prospects-list-for-2013

Nik
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Nik
3 years 7 months ago

You will not find May in a single top 100 list this year. Guaranteed.

wobatus
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wobatus
3 years 7 months ago

Fangraphs own Mike Newman isn’t impressed with him. I think Hulet may be a little higher on him but not sure. Of course, folks weren’t all that high on Worley when he was in the minors.

Sparkles Peterson
Guest
Sparkles Peterson
3 years 7 months ago

A ranking on a Sickels list doesn’t necessarily mean the guy is a consensus top 100 prospect. I think the guy finally gave up on Nevin Griffith last year.

Tom
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Tom
3 years 7 months ago

They gave up a 2 win pitcher with some flages (is the K rate sustainable, health) and a prospect who is walking over 4/9Ip at pretty much every level and saw his K rate dip when moving up to AA.

I don’t think this is a great trade for Philly, but I think folks are overestimating Worley and May and underestimatig Revere.

Even if you wave your hands like Dave did on defensive metrices (the he didn’t play in front of Span hand waving argument is just absurd) , he still seems like a floor of a 2WAR CF.with potential to be a 3-3.5WAR one.

By the way there are only

Tom
Guest
Tom
3 years 7 months ago

yeesh (happy fingers on the reply button)

…. there are only 3 CF’s with a better UZR over Span in the last 2 years. So while it’s nice to say he’s not viewed as a great CF (which helps suppress Revere’s value as he can’t supplant him in CF defensively), it’s one of those Dave strawmen to build an argument.

Sugarbear
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Sugarbear
3 years 7 months ago

Go to phuturephillies. A site dedicated to the phillies farm system. I’ve been following may and the Phil’s farm for years and I quite like this deal. The Phil’s have at least 3 pitchers ahead of may on the depth chart: biddle, Martin, and Morgan. Plus pettibone who made a few starts last year and is quite comparable to Worley in terms of rotation rank. May is filthy with no command. He is destined for the bullpen. I’m think this trade is good for him and hope the twins staff can help him more with control.

DavidCEisen
Guest
DavidCEisen
3 years 7 months ago

In the comments Sickel’s also says that ranking May at 32 is aggressive and could change come January.

Gomez
Guest
3 years 7 months ago

If command is Mays’ problem there is a non-zero chance the Twins system can fix that enough to maintain his role as a SP moving up the ranks. And if not, he could still be of substantial use in the bullpen. He is blowing guys away, command problems or not.

Like
Guest
Like
3 years 7 months ago

It’s control and mental rigidity. May’s got a nice arm, no doubt, but he insists on pitching up in the zone. His fastball is good enough for that to fly in A+; we saw how well it played in AA.

That combined with an inability to repeat his windup has killed his value. He’s a project with potential, for sure, but Dave has far overvalued him in this post. He’s not going to make a single Top-100.

Balthazar
Guest
Balthazar
3 years 7 months ago

I couldn’t say whether Revere is more likely to improve his walks achieved rate or May to improve his walks allowed; likely the former, but I wouldn’t expect either outcome. That said, May has upside as a power reliever, so let’s not discount that. The Twins evidently like that potential, whereas Amaro isn’t comfortable with a closer to whom he can’t give eight-large per annum. So, it’s no skin off his roster.

May isn’t important enough to worry about giving him up. And Philly boxed themselves into Revere being their best option by not settling on someone else definitively ahead of time. Perhaps the best measure of this deal from Philly’s standpoint is the ‘$ preserved’ statistic. Revere may not be the best outcome, but instead of throwing money at the problem Amaro has decided to look at later market cadres in search of something he likes more. And to me, that’s a decent choice for Philly.

KM
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KM
3 years 7 months ago

True, but worth noting that Philly has young bullpen arms with power but control questions who are staring to crack the majors already. They are short on position players tho.

Todd
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Todd
3 years 7 months ago

Wait, so who plays center now for the Twins? Benson? Hicks?

Chris Parmelee
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Chris Parmelee
3 years 7 months ago

I got this.

Sarcastocrat
Guest
Sarcastocrat
3 years 7 months ago

Is it normal for my soul to soar like this after reading such a genial answer?

SC
Guest
SC
3 years 7 months ago

My guess is Mastroianni and Hicks battle it out in Spring Training. Hicks probably takes over for good by 2014.

Nik
Guest
Nik
3 years 7 months ago

Also, May is not the Phillies top prospect any longer after his disasterous 2012. Saying so just makes the article sound uneducated. His K rate dropped and control is still atrocious. He’ll be a bullpen guy most likely.

TKDC
Member
Member
TKDC
3 years 7 months ago

FYI, “top prospect” and “the top prospect” mean two different things.

Nik
Guest
Nik
3 years 7 months ago

FYI, read the article:

“But, to acquire that average player, the Phillies parted with a Major League average starting pitcher — and that may be underselling Vance Worley — and their best prospect, Trevor May.”

eckmuhl
Member
eckmuhl
3 years 7 months ago

Yeah, Dave makes two pretty clear missteps in this article. May is clearly not arguably Philly’s top prospect any longer. And May is not as highly regarded as Meyer. Still think the Twins did a little better on this one though, as long as Worley’s arm is sound.

Brian
Guest
Brian
3 years 7 months ago

Cameron further reiterated:
“At most, the Phillies probably add +1 win in this exchange, and that win cost them their best young arm.”

From these 2 quotes, we can conclusively say that Dave Cameron believes that Trevor May was the Phillies best pitching prospect.

But he wasn’t.

TKDC
Member
Member
TKDC
3 years 7 months ago

whoopso

TKDC
Member
Member
TKDC
3 years 7 months ago

Regardless of my mistakenly defending the author, it seems as though Worley for Revere would be a fairly even trade by itself, so the Phillies must view May as a throw-in, or else they still got screwed.

DavidCEisen
Guest
DavidCEisen
3 years 7 months ago

Really? Why?

Worley during the past two seasons: 2.4 & 1.9 WAR
Revere during the past two seasons: 2.0 & 3.4 WAR

So 4.3 WAR vs 5.4, or more than a full win better. There are health questions regarding Worley and his called strike numbers are almost certainly unsustainable. The question with Revere is his BABIP. Is he a true >.325 BABIP guy or ~.300? That’s the difference between him being a 2 and a 3.5 WAR player.

Nik
Guest
Nik
3 years 7 months ago

Wasn’t Michal Bourn Juan Pierre 2.0 until he wasnt?

NEPP
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NEPP
3 years 7 months ago

No, Bourn has a plus arm…Pierre doesnt even have an arm.

Ian R.
Guest
Ian R.
3 years 7 months ago

Unless there was some disfiguring accident I haven’t heard about, Juan Pierre does indeed have an arm. In fact, he has two.

Spike
Guest
Spike
3 years 7 months ago

guess you haven’t seen him recently…

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
Well-Beered Englishman
3 years 7 months ago

Juan Pierre also has a sentient mustache.

Steve
Guest
Steve
3 years 7 months ago

Bourn and Pierre have never been the same type of hitter. Bourn, throughout his minor league career, had high K and BB totals, which were indicative of a player who wouldn’t put up Pierre-type batting averages. He also is noticeably stronger than Pierre and seemed capable of regularly hitting 8-10 homers in a season. Not big power, but more than Pierre.

Pinstripe Wizard
Member
Pinstripe Wizard
3 years 7 months ago

He has two arms, but perhaps he throws with the wrong one.

Matt
Guest
Matt
3 years 7 months ago

Shannon Stewart had no arm to speak of. Otis Nixon’s was terrible. In fact, Nixon may not be a bad comp for Revere, though Nixon walked a bit more but I give Revere the edge for batting average. No power at all for either guy, and both fast as anything.

JT
Guest
JT
3 years 7 months ago

Revere will cost about 14 million less than Span over the next two years, and his pedigree, minor league performance and major league trajectory suggest he will be as good or better as a hitter while playing decent enough D.

That’s why the phillies paid more than the Nats (and then there is the issue of extar years of team control. They could use the 14 million to get a pitcher as good and probably better than Worley. Or they can use it to address other needs. May is obviously the wildcard, but impressive strike out ratio aside, his numbers have been quite underwhelming the last couple years and he’s no longer that young. Doubt he pops up in many top 100 for 2013.

Mike
Guest
Mike
3 years 7 months ago

Minor point: Span’s salary for the next 2 years totals $11.25 million w/ a $9 million team option in 2015. So the difference over the next 2 years is probably closer to $10 million.

DD
Guest
DD
3 years 7 months ago

This. The money freed up by the move is huge. They can get a $6 mil/yr pitcher (Joe Sanders-esque) to be the #4, with Kendrick 5th, and not mis much in the rotation. The extra money not spent on Bourn/Upton etc can be used to get a power bat in LF, like Hamilton, provided they only go 3 years (God help us on that). Or they can give $10 mil to Youk to play 3B.

Luke in MN
Guest
Luke in MN
3 years 7 months ago

Revere hasn’t been as good a player as Span, and I don’t think it’s any sort of lock at all that he will suddenly get as good or better. He has neither the plate discipline nor arm that Span has, nor for that matter, even the power (and Span doesn’t compare favorably in the power department to too many others). Revere steals bases, and Span really doesn’t, but otherwise, Revere has his work cut out for him to catch up to Span.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan
3 years 7 months ago

I’m usually one to harp on Amaro, but I honestly think this is a pretty good move. In my opinion, your analysis seems to be pretty biased against Revere. Whether it be the tone or using an example like assuming no team has ever put a worse fielder in CF (have you ever heard of the New York Yankees?)
Concerns about Revere’s future as an offensive player are completely fair, but you undersell the riskiness of Worley’s situation and likely oversell May’s potential when you look at his peripherals.

Atari
Guest
Atari
3 years 7 months ago

I also want to reserve judgement. Let’s see what moves Amaro makes now with the money that was supposedly allocated to Bourn by the internet community. They could use that money to go out and sign a Dempster or Marcum or McCarthy or Sanchez still, if pitching is a concern.

If it is to help pave the way for a Michael Young trade and his 16 million dollar salary in 2013, then that is another story.

Vin
Guest
Vin
3 years 7 months ago

The thing about making an assumption about Revere’s defense based on moving him in deference to Span is that it ignores the way the Twins tend to do things. Seniority first seems to be the way. The only way they’d move an established starter for a young guy would be if he was terrible, which Span isn’t.

drewcorb
Member
drewcorb
3 years 7 months ago

I also think they wanted Span to maintain high trade value by selling him as a center fielder. I don’t think they were concerned about Revere’s value because they probably weren’t actively trying to trade him.

DD
Guest
DD
3 years 7 months ago

Dead on here.

Matt
Guest
Matt
3 years 7 months ago

This is correct. Twins tend to be pretty loyal to veteran players and Span wasn’t particularly receptive in the Spring about a possible move to corner spot. From a trade value perspective why would you move Span as well? He’s been on the block for quite awhile, why risk diminishing Span’s perceived value by moving him to corner spot.

NRJyzr
Guest
NRJyzr
3 years 7 months ago

I was going to bring up the same thing, Revere was happy to be in MLB, but Span was on record as being not particularly thrilled about a return to right field, as was rumored to be in the works in 2012 Spring Training.

Luke in MN
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Luke in MN
3 years 7 months ago

Cameron’s point is inane here. Both are very good defensive center fielders.

PHLPVD
Guest
PHLPVD
3 years 7 months ago

I agree that Worley for Revere straight up probably would have been fair and adding in May makes this a bit of an overpayment, but I have no idea what planet you live on if Trevor May is still considered the Phillies best prospect. He’s top 10 by virtue of their system being crappy but he’s far from #1, and most likely a reliever. Hard for me to find this credible given that valuation of May.

Nahder
Guest
Nahder
3 years 7 months ago

I have to agree with Nik on this. Mays prospect star has greatly diminished. This article is also leaving out that Revere has room for improvement since hes still only 24. Comparing it to the Span trade is like comparing apples to oranges when you factor in years and pay. Bourne is a perfect example of a similar player who made great improvements after his first couple years.

Jon L.
Guest
Jon L.
3 years 7 months ago

I don’t understand the reason for the pessimism regarding Ben Revere. He grades out as at least an average major leaguer the last two years. They were his 23- and 24-year-old seasons,and are almost all his big league experience. He’s young enough that his clearly above-average defense shouldn’t decline for years. He hits for a decent or better batting average, walks enough to have a decent obp, and is a superior baserunner. You say he rarely draws a walk, but both years he’s walked a lot more frequently than Ichiro Suzuki (a similar hitter in type, if not quality) did in his age-27 MVP season. Why would we not expect Revere’s bat to continue to improve, just as we would for any other relatively inexperienced player entering his age 25 season?

Matt
Guest
Matt
3 years 7 months ago

Ichiro’s IsoP is double Revere’s(believe Revere has the longest HR drought in the majors). As a Twins fan trust me when I say he has no power(not sure I’ve every seen outfield defense’s play in so far) and hasn’t really shown any progress towards achieving any either. Also, be prepared for teams to consistently take an extra base on hits deeper in the outfield, Revere’s arm is atrocious. Don’t get me wrong, Revere is a useful player; he’s just very limited as well. I’m happy with the trade as the Twins have a slew of outfield prospects and the return is solid, if a bit risky.

chuckb
Guest
chuckb
3 years 7 months ago

He walks just more than 5% of the time. That’s really, really low. He has a decent OBP b/c of his speed and the fact that he had a .325 BABIP last season. I think the article was pretty clear that it’s unlikely that Revere’s offense is going to improve in any meaningful way because of the already high BABIP and the fact that Revere hits so many ground balls. The paucity of fly balls means his power isn’t likely to improve a lot, if at all, and he doesn’t walk at a high rate. Where’s the improvement going to come from?

I agree that his defense in CF and his youth will allow him to be an average player for the next few seasons, but there’s no reason to suspect that his offense is going to improve in any meaningful sense.

Dave S
Guest
Dave S
3 years 7 months ago

I have to agree. At first I was expecting him to be an Omar Moreno type player. Plus D in CF, speedy slap hitter, almost useful in the lineup when he can get his OBP to be league average-ish.

Then I looked at his BBref comps:

Similar Batters through 24
Joe Sommer (968)
Jack Lelivelt (967)
Barry Bonnell (966)
Joe Orsulak (965)
Thad Bosley (964)
Matty McIntyre (964)
Willy Taveras (964)
Jerry Mumphrey (963)
Lee Magee (961)
Lou Finney (960)

ugh.

4 of these guys are dead-ball era players.
I’d be hard pressed to call the others “mediocre”.

Eddie Oropesa
Guest
Eddie Oropesa
3 years 7 months ago

The overselling of Trevor May in this piece makes it sound like it was written two years ago.

Brian
Guest
Brian
3 years 7 months ago

yup

drewggy
Member
drewggy
3 years 7 months ago

Seems fairly similar to the M’s trading for Gutierrez. Moving an elite fielder from the corner to where he rightly belongs who has a pretty weak bat (F-Gut had an average wOBA of 94 in his first 2 full seasons with CLE).

Revere and Gutierrez get there in different ways, but they’re both below average hitters. If the Phills have soured on May, this seems like a fine deal.

Gomez
Guest
3 years 7 months ago

One way we can see this is if the Phils were somehow sour on both Worley and May, maybe Worley for his health concerns and limitations, and May for his command problems.

KCDaveInLA
Guest
KCDaveInLA
3 years 7 months ago

Trevor May was drafted in 2008 and only made it to Double-A last year? Hardly screams “top prospect” to me (either the “a” or “the” variety).

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
Well-Beered Englishman
3 years 7 months ago

This is because Ruben Amaro already traded his top prospects. If you trade enough prospects, eventually Trevor May rises to the top.

Heather
Guest
Heather
3 years 7 months ago

But even with all the trading, May ISN’T the Phil’s best prospect anymore. Probably not even top 3. His stats in AA were pretty hideous.

Steve
Guest
Steve
3 years 7 months ago

True. And it is only because the Astros don’t have any tradable players left that May himself is not in Houston.

Brian
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Brian
3 years 7 months ago

Jessie Biddle > Trevor May

JPKK
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JPKK
3 years 7 months ago

Looks like you put in Span a bunch when you meant Revere in the 5th paragraph

Troy
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Troy
3 years 7 months ago

Agree with others here. Seems like Dave is taking Revere’s best tool, centerfield defense, and regressing it heavily, while completely discounted any possibility that his offense improves. Which, given his age and speed, is more likely to improve than not.
Not to mention they avoid paying $16m/yr for a declining Bourn…who’s basically an older, more developed version of Revere.
Now the question becomes, who’s in on Bourn? Rangers, if they lose Hamilton?

Jason
Guest
Jason
3 years 7 months ago

Agree, I don’t mind this move for the Phils given what we’ve seen of how the FA market is valuing CF’s. If not this move then what, pay Bourn $80M?

Hypothetical question, if Revere and Worley were both free agents at the start of this offseason, who would be getting the biggest contract? I suspect Revere by a wide margin.

Heather
Guest
Heather
3 years 7 months ago

Worley’s elbow surgery and underlying peripherals indicate a decline could be coming, and May’s prospect star has dimmed substantially….and this was a MASSIVE overpay for a 2-3 WAR CF?

Just because the Nats may have ripped off Terry Ryan doesn’t make this trade a bad one….

Sam
Guest
Sam
3 years 7 months ago

Completely agree with Heather, and would go a step further. I genuinely thought this would be considered a win for the Twins in FanGraphsLand. Revere is a young center fielder with no health concerns I am aware of, who has shown the ability to play at a major league average level or better. Worley is a young pitcher who has performed at a similar level, but who is also coming off a season in which he had an elbow injury, a reduced strikeout rate, and lost almost 1 mph off his already underwhelming fastball. Revere looks like a safer bet to produce value going forward. And as other posters have mentioned, May is probably a reliever if he is a major leaguer.

chuckb
Guest
chuckb
3 years 7 months ago

The point was that Revere = Worley so giving up a good arm (regardless of whether he’s the Phillies’ best, 2nd best, or 10th best pitching prospect) along with Worley makes this an overpay. Some of you are too busy nitpicking at minor points in the article to focus on the main idea.

A lot of examples here for why “fan” is short for fanatic (or, I guess, in your cases, “phanatic”).

Heather
Guest
Heather
3 years 7 months ago

But my point is Revere DOESN’T equal Worley. Worley’s a back end starter who has already lost mph on his fastball and needed some elbow surgery. In a vacuum, Worley equals Revere, but you can’t ignore the signs pointing to problems for Worley.

chuckb
Guest
chuckb
3 years 7 months ago

I suspect you’re underselling Worley, but maybe I’m wrong. If he’s healthy, he’s at least as good as Revere. If he’s not, my guess is that the Twins wouldn’t have made this trade. They’ve surely seen the medical reports and the X-rays and, if there was any question in their minds as to his health, they wouldn’t have done it.

Maybe I’m wrong and maybe they’re wrong — maybe he’ll fail the physical — and all in all, I’d rather have a 2-2.5 win CF than a 2-2.5 win pitcher. It seems to me as though the Twins convinced Amaro to throw in May to account for the questions about Worley’s elbow. But my guess is that if the Twins had that many questions about it, Trevor May wouldn’t have convinced them to take Worley.

B N
Guest
B N
3 years 7 months ago

I like Worley and am still somewhat hesitant about Revere, but the Phillies definitely take on a lot less risk due to this trade. Additionally, the SP market is far deeper than the CF market lately.

Obviously, if Worley stays healthy and develops more, this will come out looking bad for the Phillies. However, those are two big ifs. If Worley doesn’t stay healthy or if he pitches no better than last year at his peak (~4 ERA, 150IP), Revere will look like even or better value.

Jaybo Shaw
Member
Jaybo Shaw
3 years 7 months ago

Not to pile on here, but I agree with the majority of the commentors. A 23 year old pitching prospect with a 4.69 BB/9 ratio doesn’t seem as exciting as one might expect after reading about him in this article.

I think the Twins placement of him and Span is also a weak point. We have a large number of instances where teams use a number of variables besides “who is a better OF” to set their OF defense (Gardner, young Crawford, etc.) This site has written numerous articles about that and how teams are showing you can extract a lot more defensive value in the corner spots than once thought. All this to say that “Ben Revere is worse than Span at defense because the Twins put Span in center” seems overly-simple and lazy.

I think its incredible that Dave gets these articles up an hour after the event be written about occurs, but it seems this time that might have been at the expense of evaluating May’s profile or 2012 results. As a Phillies fan, I hope he is incorrect. I thought it was a hefty bounty we gave up, but I was delighted to see that Amaro wasn’t making the same mistakes that he tends to make (overvaluing power and undervaluing defense.)

I do see value in highlighting a realistic ceiling for Revere.

Jaybo Shaw
Member
Jaybo Shaw
3 years 7 months ago

Lastly, I think assuming that Amaro was dead set on get a CF was also relevant.

A comparison to Revere/”Pitcher X they could potentially Acquire” vs. Bourn/Worley, accounting for salaries and prospects surrendered would have been interesting.

I’d rather surrender the prospects then go 5/80 for Bourn. I am certain the Phillies will spend that money elsewhere. If we use that money to get a value/upside starter (EJax/McCarthy?) and maybe a corner upgrade, that would be good. It also keeps us in play for Hamilton/Swisher (and might push Bourn to Seattle which would bring down the suitors for Hamilton and Swisher).

Steve 1
Guest
Steve 1
3 years 7 months ago

Buncha pissy Phillies fans up in here.

Steve 1
Guest
Steve 1
3 years 7 months ago

See: below.

Yeah
Guest
Yeah
3 years 7 months ago

I don’t think so. I’m a Braves fan so I naturally look at anything the Phillies do as irredeemably awful, but this article seems poorly prepared and scattered with not up to par analysis, it definitely shows a poor evaluation of the relative worth of major league talent to prospects.

DaveCameronSucks
Guest
DaveCameronSucks
3 years 7 months ago

Another piss poor article by DC. Dave, we all understand you hate the Phillies, but hell, at least call it as you see it. This was a solid RAJ trade. RAJ feels money can be spent more productively in the rotation and May is NOT their top prospect at all. Look for Adam Morgan in Clearwater gunning for the 5th slot. Looking forward to your next lazy & bizarre synopsis, Davey.

Average_Casey
Guest
Average_Casey
3 years 7 months ago

While a lot of us don’t necessarily agree with Dave on a lot of things, I would say that you are wrong about him hating the Phillies. Their GM isn’t that good and Dave points that out a lot. Examples of this would be trading Cliff Lee to the Mariners for crummy prospects (which I loved because I’m a Mariners fan) and Ryan Howard’s silly contract extension. Also, you may want to include their handling of Dominic Brown in that analysis too.

DaveCameronSucks
Guest
DaveCameronSucks
3 years 7 months ago

A_C, you’re 100% correct about RAJ’s decisions. It seems everytime I come to FG it’s to read an article attacking the Phils

Simon
Guest
Simon
3 years 7 months ago

So RAJ is a bad GM, and Dave Cameron is a bad writer who hates the Phillies for pointing out the bad things that RAJ does? Is that right?

Pinstripe Wizard
Member
Pinstripe Wizard
3 years 7 months ago

As someone that has seen Adam Morgan throw several innings in college, I would be shocked if he got a look at the 5th spot in the rotation this season. He has a great amount of talent, but I always felt he needed a bit more polish. He made 6 starts in Reading last season, so I would suspect he would spend at least the first half of 2013 in Reading again. He could get a cup of coffee next fall, but he’d be more of a rotation candidate in 2014.

Steve
Guest
Steve
3 years 7 months ago

Can we all at least agree that this was a trade of two players who both grade out as close to 80 on the name scale?

Ben Revere
Vance Worley

Both excellent names.

It will never top the Fister-Furbush trade, but what will?

Well-Beered Englishman
Guest
Well-Beered Englishman
3 years 7 months ago

Phillippe Aumont and Tyson Gillies were once traded for Clifton Phifer Lee, who in turn had once been traded alongside Grady Sizemore.

Ben Revere and Vance Worley are two outstanding names.

Phrozen
Guest
Phrozen
3 years 7 months ago

The aforementioned Clifton Phifer and Grady Sizemore were traded for Bartolo Colon.

JeffT
Guest
JeffT
3 years 7 months ago

Is there any chance we could see an increase in Revere’s SLG with the move to CBP? I have heard that Target is not a great power park.

Nik
Guest
Nik
3 years 7 months ago

Infields are the same distance though. That’s about how far Revere hits baseballs.

chuckb
Guest
chuckb
3 years 7 months ago

He’s not a power bitter and wRC+ includes park factors anyway.

Beasy Bee
Guest
Beasy Bee
3 years 7 months ago

Marv Albert was one hell of a power biter…

marlins12
Guest
marlins12
3 years 7 months ago

“Davey” is right. They traded a ML-caliber pitcher + a good prospect for a guy who can’t hit. His value comes strictly from defense and those #’s can vary from year to year. If Revere has a neutral defensive year (which he’s had in the past), he’s nothing. Most of his defensive value last year came in RF, not CF, by the way. Not saying he doesn’t have the tools to play CF because he does, but still. Better hope he puts up very good defensive #’s because the guy is a liability in the lineup.

Nik
Guest
Nik
3 years 7 months ago

Slap hitters who don’t strikeout and steal 50 bags in a full season are not offensively useless.

Clifford
Guest
Clifford
3 years 7 months ago

just cause he doesnt hit HR doesnt mean hes a liability…last year he only played in 124 games i think. if you extrapolate his numbers out over 155-160 games, he hits right around .300 with 88-92 runs, 17-19 doubles, 8-9 triples, and 50-55 SB. sorry to say, but thats not too shabby IMO.

if you notice, this whole article only utilizes certain stats that fit Dave’s opinion about the trade. he decided from the start that the Phillies overpaid, and then found stats that fit that model. you could do this with nearly any transaction in baseball.

chuckb
Guest
chuckb
3 years 7 months ago

One thing he doesn’t use is raw numbers of things like doubles and runs scored in his analysis. He also doesn’t extrapolate numbers out to 160 games. That’s not noteworthy. What’s noteworthy is that you’re criticizing him for it.

Clifford
Guest
Clifford
3 years 7 months ago

that makes little to no sense whatsoever. all i was saying was that he made revere out to be a horrible hitter, which i simply tend to disagree with. any guy that doesnt strike out much, hits nearly .300, and can steal upwards of 50 bags in a season doesnt seem to be as terrible as Dave seemed to portray. michael bourn is a career .272 hitter with an OBP of .339, who stirkes out more, and has only 22 HR in over 3000 career ABs…how is he that much different than Revere?

John
Guest
John
3 years 7 months ago

Clifford, he had an 88 WRC+ which is tied for 21st worst among qualified position players on the leaderboard (about the 14th percentile). He was 22nd from the bottom in wOBA among qualified players. Those are rate statistics, normalized, he is unequivacoly a poor hitter.

I also think the phillies know this and aren’t sweating it. But if you believe his power is so poor, its hard to forsee his BABIP or anything like that really rising. He hits almost 70% of his balls on the ground, I don’t see where the improvement in his hitting value is going to come from. He is essentially Willie Mays Hayes.

They also may have “overpaid”, but the alternatives seem to be… Bourn. They probably will be better off in 3 years even if Mays turns it around. My point being, the overpay was rational.

Clifford
Guest
Clifford
3 years 7 months ago

i find these kind of articles amusing, considering the amount of insane hype associated with billy hamilton. if speed is so worthless, why is everyone drooling over him?

furthermore, if you watched a lot of Phillies games last year and the last couple years for that matter, you would know that its crucial for them to A.) have a good defensive team, and B.) have guys to get on base for Howard, Utley, Rollins, etc. i actually love this deal. i think Worley was extremely overrated. he doesnt throw hard, he doesnt have great offspeed stuff, he’s already had more than a few arm issues, and it wasnt like he was some top prospect before he came to the bigs.

im of the belief that if you can get an average to slightly above average, everyday, cost-efficient CF that can hit leadoff, and is under team control for several more years, for one decent arm, and a prospect that has struggled to hit the broad side of a barn, its prolly a win. especially when you still trot out Halladay, Hamels, and Lee 3 outta every 5 games. Not to mention the Phils could go after a guy like Brandon McCarthy. This article sounds like it was written by a Mets fan.

Steve 1
Guest
Steve 1
3 years 7 months ago

” B.) have guys to get on base for Howard, Utley, Rollins, etc.”

Good thing Revere gets on base at an above average rate….. oh what’s that he doesn’t? Oh.

Nik
Guest
Nik
3 years 7 months ago

Career .383 OBP in the minors and .333 OBP in the majors at the ripe old age of 24.

Steve 1
Guest
Steve 1
3 years 7 months ago

Oh I wasn’t aware the .333 was above average.

drewggy
Member
drewggy
3 years 7 months ago

.333 is above average for OBP.

Last year league average was .319.

Nik
Guest
Nik
3 years 7 months ago

Steve1 are you still there? Hello? Anybody?

Steve 1
Guest
Steve 1
3 years 7 months ago

Oh I also wasn’t aware that we started using one year sample sizes now.

YanksFanInBeantown
Guest
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 7 months ago

@Steve1

Well, .333 is above average, so you just learned something new.

Clifford
Guest
Clifford
3 years 7 months ago

so Steve, you can use 1 year sample sizes to show why Revere isnt an effective player, but that same size cant be used to show why you’re wrong?

David Hansen
Guest
David Hansen
3 years 7 months ago

So if .319 is league average, our leadoff hitter is a whopping .014 above that – WOW. We’re in trouble again. This deal reeks of “dance with the fat girl so I don’t end up alone.” Way to go Rube! Just what I wanted for Christmas.

NEPP
Guest
NEPP
3 years 7 months ago

Sure, he only gets on base .014 more than the average hitter but their current leadoff hitter has a .316 OBP for the past 4 seasons so its still an improvement for Philly.

Tim
Guest
Tim
3 years 7 months ago

When Revere has 60+ WAR you can compare him to Billy Hamilton.

Clifford
Guest
Clifford
3 years 7 months ago

what?

IanKay
Member
IanKay
3 years 7 months ago

Tim: wrong Billy Hamilton. They’re talking about the “new” one, currently in the minors.

Tim
Guest
Tim
3 years 7 months ago

Everyone wonders if Billy Hamilton can steal a hundred bases, I say he already did it five times.

Greg
Guest
Greg
3 years 7 months ago

He has an average-ish line drive rate, a really high ground ball rate, he’s really fast and he’s already shown himself to be pretty good at bunting for a hit (tied for 3rd in baseball last year in bunt hits). In what universe is .325 likely his ceiling for a babip.

Go sort by bunt hits over the last few years to look at players with similar batted ball profiles. Most are fast, with high ground ball rates and minimal power. Among the players with ground ball rates over 50% who get a decent number of bunt hits, a babip of 325 seems closer to the average, with several players (Bourn and Bonifacio for example, sustaining babips over 350 for the last three years).

vivaelpujols
Guest
vivaelpujols
3 years 7 months ago

look at how many players have maintained a BABIP of .325+ for 3 years. I’d bet that’s the 95% in baseball.

marlins12
Guest
marlins12
3 years 7 months ago

I never said he was “offensively useless;” I said he was a liability. I don’t think anyone is saying he’s a bad player; he’s just probably not worth two pitchers, both having a chance of being big-league starters.

Worley has been solid the past two years; May was a top-70 prospect before ’12 and despite a down year at AA, he still averaged over a strikeout per inning. Pretending he doesn’t have some nice potential is ridiculous.

Nick
Guest
Nick
3 years 7 months ago

Worley was not solid last year. Maybe you tuned out early since the Marlins fell apart. Here is a recap for Worley: His era was above 4.00, never pitched past the 6th inning, got hurt, came back and was not effective, then went on the DL. Kendrick was a lot better last year than Worley. I bet Kendrick has a better year in `13 then Worley does.

As for May, you don’t point out the glaring problem in his game, control. The Phillies are loaded with young arms like May with “nice potential” but have zero control. He walks a lot of batters. As someone who has seen May pitch, he reminds of Phillipe Aumont. Aumont throws hard like May, strikes out players like May, BUT could not fix his control issues. Aumont struggled at Double A and then Triple A just like May. Aumont ended up moving into the bullpen. May will probably follow suit.

Trevor May
Guest
Trevor May
3 years 7 months ago

I’m not nearly as good as Dave thiks I am. I’m a future middle reliever at best. Middle relief “prospects” aren’t worth squat.

Vance Worley
Guest
Vance Worley
3 years 7 months ago

My elbow still hurts. I’m in for a huge regression, ala J.A. Happ.

sorry to nitpick
Guest
sorry to nitpick
3 years 7 months ago

Pssst…Vance, you’re talking about decline, not regression. They’re different.

Vance Worley
Guest
Vance Worley
3 years 7 months ago

Ummm, I’m talking about both. My elbow hurts = decline. My peripherals suggest I’m J.A. Happ 2.0 = regression. And I have a cooler nickname then you = The Vanimal.

Ben Revere
Guest
Ben Revere
3 years 7 months ago

I’m a league average centerfielder, 24, under control for 5 more years, and have no injury history to speak of. What’s not to love?

Douchy Phillies Homer
Guest
Douchy Phillies Homer
3 years 7 months ago

These statements obviously from the men themselves all makes sense to me.

Butthurt Braves Fan
Guest
Butthurt Braves Fan
3 years 7 months ago

I know, right?

Ruben Amaro Jr.
Guest
Ruben Amaro Jr.
3 years 7 months ago

Make sure you come on down to the stadium this year and drink a micro brew. We have lots of space for you to park your 10 speed!

David Hansen
Guest
David Hansen
3 years 7 months ago

Great, now we can be the Kansas City Royals – woohoo!

Phillyfan
Guest
Phillyfan
3 years 7 months ago

As a Phillies fan who has watched every game for years, I love this trade.

At best Worely was a #3 starter, and the majority of his strikeouts were called 3rd strikes. Once the league figures him out, he does not have enough pitches or stuff to be effective. His WHIP last season was already around 1.51, imagine how much higher it will when he is no longer getting those 3rd called strikes. The best comparison I can make is that he reminds me of JA Happ, effective his frist two seasons, relied too much on his fastball, and once league adjusted to him he was terrible.

There are so many variables that acquiring Revere has created. First, the Phillies have needed to get younger for years, now we have a 24 year old CF, who is one his way to winning Gold Gloves, under our control for the next five seasons. Next, instead of spending $15 million on a 30 year old Bourn or Upton, this money can be used to sign a much better pitcher than Worley such as a Marcum, Loshe, or a Demspter, which all considered an upgrade compared to Worley.

Furthermore, Revere’s offensive stats are very misleading, and is much more productive hitting 2nd compared to leading off.

Hitting 1st
2012 34 Games Avg. 259 OBP .312
Career 130 Games Avg. .263 OBP .310

Hitting 2nd
2012 80 Games Avg .305 OBP .340
Career 129 Games Avg .307 OBP .340

As for trading May, as others have stated he is not our best SP prospect, or even the 2nd or 3rd. Furthermore, since the Phillies started trading our farm system away, can you name any of them that have become effective players in the major leagues. So far only 1, Gio Gonzalez who was traded for Blanton, a key piece in our run to the 08 World Series going 4-0 in his starts. (In fact, without him we probably would not have made the Playoffs because we were never in 1st place until September 18). The only other player that looked to have some potential was Kyle Drabek until he had to have Tommy John surgery last season.

DD
Guest
DD
3 years 7 months ago

Correction, Gio was traded to the Chi Sox for Freddy Garcia, then flipped to the A’s for Swisher. I agree with much of what you say tho, except they should allocate the money on an outfield upgrade, not a big rotation piece – the offense is in more dire shape at the moment, espcially in the power dept.

KM
Guest
KM
3 years 7 months ago

D’Arnaud, to be fair.

Phrozen
Guest
Phrozen
3 years 7 months ago

Well, Michael Bourn has been pretty decent.

Phillyfan
Guest
Phillyfan
3 years 7 months ago

Bourn was traded for Lidge in 08, and turned out to be a huge trade because Lidge did not blow a save in 08. Granted, Lidge did not have another great regular season, but during the Playoffs in both 09 and 10 he did not blow save. When the Phillies won the World Series in 08, and we entered the 8th inning with a lead we were 84-0.

Phrozen
Guest
Phrozen
3 years 7 months ago

Okay…. but that has what to do with what you said originally?

Shankbone
Guest
Shankbone
3 years 7 months ago

Great comment. We all love the shiny prospects, but the cold hard fact is very few pan out. Trading records should be analyzed more carefully, with an eye to which GMs hang onto the right talent and let go of the flotsam to gain advantage on the field that counts.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
3 years 7 months ago

But what is his OBP during Thursday day games in August?

nolan
Guest
nolan
3 years 7 months ago

It’s okay Dave, you still know the Mariners better than anyone.

tz
Guest
tz
3 years 7 months ago

Something tells me Boras is asking for the moon for Bourn. Something so crazy that teams like Philly are kicking the tires on guys like Revere.

Nick
Guest
Nick
3 years 7 months ago

I’m not sure how Kyle Kendrick is vastly inferior to Vance Worley.

You bash Worley throughout the article. Worley I bet becomes barley passable as a starter in the American League. Worley reminds me of right handed J A Happ. Happ had a dynamite year in 2009 and then got hurt in 2010. The Phillies traded him to Houston where he has been pretty bad. Worley will be the same thing. Minnesota is getting a 5th starter from Worley. As for May, an ERA at 5.00 in Double A is not encouraging. If May turns into a reviler, I will take a starting caliber CF over a bullpen arm any day of the week.

Synovia
Guest
Synovia
3 years 7 months ago

“. Given that the Twins used him in a corner in deference to Span — a good defender who isn’t viewed at that kind of level — we have to be a little skeptical of the idea that Revere is the rangiest center fielder in the game,”

Why? Its not like its the first time we’ve seen teams misevaluate player’s defense. Yuniesky Bettancourt kept getting jobs.

Jaybo Shaw
Member
Jaybo Shaw
3 years 7 months ago

The Phillies get Ben Revere under team control for the next 5 years, through 2017. This will be his age 24 – 28 seasons.

Dave calls him Juan Pierre 2.0. In Juan Pierre’s age 24 – 28 seasons, he produced 16.8 WAR, averaging about 3.2 WAR/season.

I think the Phillies would be quite pleased with 16.8 WAR over that time-frame for Revere at arbitration rates that will be even more team-friendly considering Revere’s skill set isn’t properly valued in the arbitration process.

Subtle Racism
Guest
Subtle Racism
3 years 7 months ago

Sorry to say, you’re letting facts (and skin color?) in the way of the preconceived narrative. Note how negative Cameron is in the last statement about Pierre.

josh c
Guest
josh c
3 years 7 months ago

I love this article. It reinforces my decision not to take Cameron seriously when he writes authoritatively about teams other than the Mariners (I’ll give him a pass on the #6org ranking…groupthink is hard to break).

Really though, this has got everything I’ve grown to love–cherry picked stats that tell an incomplete tale of the principles? Check. Unfounded assumptions (May is the “top prospect”, huh? The Twins played Revere in the CF for what reason again?) Double check. Deciding on the narrative conclusion before doing any research? Checkmate.

There are many reasons to dislike the deal from the Phillies perspective. None of them are mentioned here.

Congrats on the pageviews, I guess.

Chris
Guest
Chris
3 years 7 months ago

I’m assuming Dave used the Phillies prospect rankings from this site that were made last year. There Trevor May was #1.

grant
Guest
grant
3 years 7 months ago

If Pierre had been a plus CF he’d have had a much more valuable career. I think Revere is like Pierre on offence, but with much greater defensive value.

shs
Guest
3 years 7 months ago

As a Twins fan.

I’m not to enthused with this trade

Revere is really good. he’ll be a .300 hitter year in and year out with a .340 OB%

REVERE IN THE ROLE that he plays on a MLB team is really quite valuable.. he’ll be consistantly a positive WAR in the 2.5-4 range. probably.

he is an 80 speed guy both base-running and defensively only thing is lack of arm and lack of power. BUT IN THE CONTEXT IN WHICH YOU USE HIM IS NOT NEEDED.

.340 OB% really isn’t that bad, its actually quite good for a tablesetter that is capable of stealing 40, 50 maybe 60 bags.

with 5 years under team control i’m suprised the Twins didn’t demand Jesse Biddle or a real top prospect to go with Worley.

then Shuffle back a guy like Swarzak.

Swarzak and Revere for Worley and Biddle would have made be much happier.
Thats how valuable i think Revere WILL BE you all just watch.

Revere is underrated.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
Guest
3 years 7 months ago

I agree that .340 OBP is actually good. The average player today in the NL has a .319 OBP, and the average leadoff hitter is the same, .319 OBP.

However, Revere’s career OBP is .319, and his OBP last year was .333, good but under that .340 OBP that you like. Bill James sees .331 in his future.

And he has not even played a full season yet in two years of MLB play. Who knows if he can even play a full season at the performance rate he has put up so far. Either he has been too brittle or too mediocre to get full-time playing status, looking at his OPS.

jcxy
Guest
jcxy
3 years 7 months ago

Yeah, I think some of your assumptions can be refuted–that he’s too brittle or too mediocre to get FT play, for instance? There are plenty of other potential reasons he didn’t get PT that aren’t related to that. As a Giants fan, you’ve witnessed the Belt saga, no?

Also, remember he’s not even 25 yet…the BJ system projects .330 for 2013…that says nothing about his “future” beyond next year.

Further, although it’s not written about, the Phillies have historically valued defense a great deal in up-the-middle positions. It’s actually been a key part of their decade of success. Surely, you can see the value in a player playing very good defense and generating considerable value from speed. On the cheap. If not, allow me to introduce you to Elvis Andrus…

John
Guest
John
3 years 7 months ago

Where exactly is this .340 OBP coming from? His rates aren’t trending that way (BB%, O-swing%), he doesn’t have enough power to punish hitters for attacking the zone, He sees fewer pitches per plate appearance than Josh Hamilton. What screams future .340+ OBP? Just out of curiousity, what is the indicator that that will happen?

jcxy
Guest
jcxy
3 years 7 months ago

Juan Pierre did it. A bunch of times. With roughly the same peripherals. No?

Nik
Guest
Nik
3 years 7 months ago

Crazy high GB rates along with 70-80 speed means a boatload of infield hits. Guys like Bourn can sustain BABIPs in the .350 range. Revere is probably a .300/.340/.360 hitter in his prime. With sick defense and 50 SBs. A tasty morsel indeed.

Tom
Guest
Tom
3 years 7 months ago

Considering he’s still maturing – his OBP should be trending up at this stage of his career, no?

If he’s really ~.330 now, I think .340 at maturity is not much of a reach.

John
Guest
John
3 years 7 months ago

Juan Pierre’s worst walk rates match reveres this year, but has generally always been higher since his first full season in the league. His 2 Lowest LD% are equal to what revere did in his two full seasons, and has often been has much as 6% higher, he never had a GB% anywhere near where Revere is at, and his ISO has generally been about twice what Revere is putting up. Also he has never had a K% within 2.5% points, and his career K% is roughly 4% lower. In a nutshell, if Pierre had two season’s like Reveres last two, they would be the 2 lowest OPS’s of his career. My point, and why I was asking if I was missing something, is while GB% is better than Fly Ball% from an OBP standpoint, it pales in comparison to LD%. I just don’t see where the inflated BABIP is going to come from, nor the walks. I see reveres advantage being cost, youth, and defense, but it seems to be that a .340 OBP is wildly optimistc. He might get there once or twice, but I think his true OBP is significantly lower than Pierres with his current approach.

jcxy
Guest
jcxy
3 years 7 months ago

“I think his true OBP is significantly lower than Pierres with his current approach.”

Two problems with your reasoning. First is your assumption that 2012 is his true talent. You’re throwing around GB, LD, FB etc to discuss how you *feel* his approach should work out. Damn, if only there was a calculator to suggest what a player’s babip should be… Oh wait, there totally is an xBABIP calculator! And it says that a luck neutral 2012 would have produced a .362 babip from Revere–or, 35-40 points higher than it was. It’s saying his underlying peripherals put him closer to a .350-.365 OBP guy. Without changin anything in his approach.

Second…he’s 24. His plate discipline might not improve, but I’ll happily wager against it. As Cameron so eloquently put it–he’d be the exception not the rule.

Calling .340 OBP “wildly optimistic” is, frankly, laughable.

obsessivegiantscompulsive
Guest
3 years 7 months ago

Maybe you should change your mind about building around pitchers: the major studies on success in the playoffs, by BP and THT, found that it is pitching and fielding defense that gets you deep into the playoffs.

While pitching might get injured more often, I have discovered that when you have great pitching and fielding, you don’t need much hitting to win with a low RA team. Since your offensive needs is reduced, you can focus more on pitching with your development efforts. Thus you can focus mostly on pitching with your drafts, particularly your first round picks, thus improving your chances of finding a good pitcher, which will help offset the additional fragility involved.

Fo Fo Fo
Guest
Fo Fo Fo
3 years 7 months ago

“it is pitching and fielding defense that gets you deep into the playoffs”

So, in other words…the Phillies over the last 3 years.

Nik
Guest
Nik
3 years 7 months ago

Except the Pitching took a nosedive last season and so did the defense. Year before they were a bit better. Good enough for 102 wins.

fo fo fo
Guest
fo fo fo
3 years 7 months ago

that’s my point…too many counterpoints.

Clifford
Guest
Clifford
3 years 7 months ago

you can say there are too many counterpoints for any argument. except maybe that mike trout was the mvp last year.

the fact that the Phils pitching and defense was not good at all last year, just further proves his point. when their pitching was bad, their W-L total was poor….when their pitching and defense was dominant, they went to back-to-back WS.

Forrest Gumption
Member
Forrest Gumption
3 years 7 months ago

The Phillies are so generous in trades, this deal makes sense if it was May for Revere straight up but adding in a guy who can throw 200 IP makes it drastically one-sided. No idea why they went so hard for Revere, who’s like, not terrible but basically Juan Pierre with less SBs and way better defense. Weird deal all round.

Plus, scarily, it opens the door for the Mariners to sign an entirely new OF of Hamilton-Bourn-Swisher and trade their current incumbents for prospects. Seattle are primed to be the biggest winners this offseason.

matt p
Guest
matt p
3 years 7 months ago

worley has not, and probably never will throw 200 ip, prospects are just that, drabek never came back to haunt us, so may is no loss, we needed a cf who could run and play d, dont need a 30/30 guy

Clifford
Guest
Clifford
3 years 7 months ago

given the fact that you believe the Mariners can now sign Bourn, Hamilton, and Swisher, your credibility becomes an automatic concern. add that to your conclusion that Worley is a guy that can throw 200 IP, and it seems we have a DC homer right here.

Dylan
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Dylan
3 years 7 months ago

Phillies top prospect is named Jesse, not Trevor, Dave.

Nik
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Nik
3 years 7 months ago

Next year his first name will be Roman. Book it.

Jeff
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Jeff
3 years 7 months ago

God I hate Fangraphs with a passion. Stats in a vacuum. I’ll only address one point and leave the rest of the drivel alone. It is enough to prove my point. Cameron mentions Revere as a hyper-aggressive hitter. How naive. Hitting second, not leadoff, with Mauer, Willingham, and Morneau behind him, he got a huge percentage of pitches to hit. The walk opportunities were not there. It was put the ball in play or strikeout. Since Cameron didn’t even watch Revere enough to understand that, I am done.

todd
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todd
3 years 7 months ago

He has absolutely no power. Zero. Why would any pitcher– knowing he can’t really hurt you with the bat, but that he can hurt you with his wheels– even try to nibble at the plate at all?
What folks are forgetting here is walk rate spikes are also components of power spikes– as a player’s power matures, more pitchers tend to want to be more careful around them. I’d strongly bet against Revere’s walk rate increasing significantly at all over the next few years.

Antonio bananas
Guest
Antonio bananas
3 years 7 months ago

The way i like to value speed is by adding the sb to the total base total and taking CS from it. Obviously hitting a double is more likely to score someone from first than a single, so the run creating value isn’t exactly the same. Just makes me wonder what revere’s new triple slash would look like.

fo fo fo
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fo fo fo
3 years 7 months ago

1st to 3rds are good too. I’ll direct you to the Mike Trout articles…

blahblahblah
Guest
blahblahblah
3 years 7 months ago

Adding in SB (and removing the CS) you get a SLG of .401 in 2012

His BA and OBP would only move downward though since the CS really need to be removed; the increased need to be running to gain your basses means unnecessary trips back to the bench after having already reached base in the first place. Specifically, his line would come in at .276/.316/.401/.717 overall (off an actual slash-line of .294/.333/.342/.675)

I would also note that the decreased 1st to 3rds off his missed XBHs is minimized at least a bit by his own ability to run the basses at a superior ability when the 3-5 hitters are at the plate – wouldnt be a wash, but his speed would be an upgrade over the average player on shots to the wall by your power guys.

Avi
Guest
Avi
3 years 7 months ago

A small point but perhaps one worth mentioning…

Revere has pretty drastic home/road splits. At Target Field he has a lifetime .261/.299/.300 slash (with one awesome somersault triple). On the road he’s at .297/.341/.347.

I know Citizens Bank Park isn’t the hitter’s paradise people seem to think it is, but Revere should fare better playing his home games in Philly.

Clifford
Guest
Clifford
3 years 7 months ago

no, its def the hitters paradise everyone thinks it is. trust me, i watch every single Phillies game, and if Josh Hamilton played a full 82 games there, he might hit 60-70 HR in a season. the LF and RF porches might be 300′

Phrozen
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Phrozen
3 years 7 months ago

They might equally be 9,000′.

CBP is not the hitters’ paradise you or anyone else seems to think. It’s about the most neutral park in baseball.

PHILLIESFAN
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PHILLIESFAN
3 years 7 months ago

For the record May wasn’t the Phillies top prospect Biddle is. May has struggled in the minors and has been over rated… Considering the othe options for CF this is a great deal. An excellent fielding cf to help a strong pitching staff. A guy who won’t strike out, put the ball in play and steal bases…Good job RAJ

matt p
Guest
matt p
3 years 7 months ago

i agree, kendrick and worley are similar, kk is a better groundball pitcher, they needed a cf and got one, raj did just fine, also, anyone remember ja happ? thought so…

Tom
Guest
Tom
3 years 7 months ago

“The fact that Jones hasn’t walked much from 21-26 does not mean that he’s going to continue not walking for the rest of his career. In fact, if his walk rate doesn’t improve as he ages, that would make him the exception, not the norm.”
Dave Cameron on Adam Jones.

Revere? He’s a hacker…”hyper-aggressive” No thought to actually factor in an improved walk rate here though; let’s just regress his defense because he can’t beat out Span, who had the FOURTH highest UZR in CF over the last 2 years. Seems like everything was done to discount a 24 year old player, and no attempt to consider improvements.

It’s this type of inconsistent analysis, handwaving and arguments which seem tailored to a preformed conclusion based on the GM/team involved that makes you wonder if an objective data driven SABR approach is being utilized in these articles or if the conclusion is written and then supporting data is filled in behind it.

Nahder
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Nahder
3 years 7 months ago

Well said. Just want to add I have never seen the comments section be in such agreement especially against the side the article says greatly won the trade.

jcxy
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jcxy
3 years 7 months ago

Well put. Cameron does himself no favors with his tone or questionable assumptions here.

MN_Oldgoat
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MN_Oldgoat
3 years 7 months ago

Hey Phillie fans – Twins fan here…
Revere is a valuable player. Yes, you will get a higher WAR from his defense than his offence, but who cares? He is a damn acrobat in the outfield. You will really enjoy him.
His walk rate will almost certainly improve. This kid gets on base, then steals one or two. And he will be hitting .300 or better in 2013 and for several years thereafter.
And what a fun, high energy kid. The fans are going to love him.
I’m just hoping either the injured Worley and the rapidly diminishing May perform well enough to make this trade a good one for the Twins.

tbjfan
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tbjfan
3 years 7 months ago

Worley alone is more valuable than Revere.

Ryan Hoffman
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Ryan Hoffman
3 years 7 months ago

The question is now, will Dave voice a reply?

buster
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buster
3 years 7 months ago

My dog took a steaming shit one cold morning. He took one look at it and never returned.

Josh Keilen
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Josh Keilen
3 years 7 months ago

I am a Minnesota Twins fan. This writer paints a pretty bleak picture. I have seen this kid play many times. This guy is an outstanding outfielder with great range. He can catch line drives hit into the gaps. Also, is one of the fastest players in the league. He once tripped and fell while rounding second and still made it to third for a triple. He has no power, but he will hit for high average and get on base. He once posted a batting average in the minors in the .370’s for the season. The writer is basing his numbers off his rookie years. They brought him up early. The major issue with Revere is his arm strength. He basically doesn’t have any. However, I think he has major upside. This writer is just pulling Revere’s worst stats based off rookie numbers. I don’t think he/she knows anything about Revere other than what he read elsewhere.

yakuzafro
Guest
yakuzafro
3 years 7 months ago

Ben Revere is the next Ichiro.

indiana229
Member
indiana229
3 years 7 months ago

Here’s another Twins fan. I would like to say that after watching many games over the past two years, Ben Revere is a better outfielder and player, than Span. Yeah he may not hit for power, and has a weak arm (which has shown some improvement even though it is still way below average.) but he’ll hit for average and drive the occasional ball, but very few can cover as much ground as he can in center field. I will be surprised if does not become a fan favorite, with his great defense and speed. When he does hit it over someone’s head it will be a triple. Span has a better eye at the plate and a more extra-base power, Revere’s stolen base total will negate that, plus with Span’s contract and health issues Revere is a better value, the only reason that Span was in center instead of Revere is because Gardenhire is really odd about major league experience and having players getting grandfathered into their positions. Revere will be missed in Minnesota. I know we need pitching and hopefully Hicks will pan out, and Target Field plays big which is good because May’s hr numbers are scary.

Matt McGinnis
Guest
Matt McGinnis
3 years 7 months ago

You can make an argument for liking the trade from either side, but it’s clearly not the slam dunk win for the Twins that Dave makes it out to be…a struggling prospect and an injured pitcher for a CF that will likely be worth 2-4 WAR per year? BTW, while serviceable, Worley wasn’t lighting the world on fire when he was healthy last year (1.9 WAR in 133 innings). He’s also a year and a half older than Revere, and given the attrition rate of pitchers, I’d bet on Revere being the more valuable player headed forward. So, given that Revere is likely to be more valuable than Worley, that leaves May to tip the scales…he’s already 23, was in AA for the first time last year, and clearly will need another year there (4.87 ERA, 4.88 FIP). His control issues have been nothing short of horrendous throughout the minors. Could he figure it out? Sure. But he has made little to no improvements whatsoever with his command since being drafted. I would be surprised to see him become a consistently above average major league starter. Really Dave, this was not as bad a trade as you make it out to be.

blahblahblah
Guest
blahblahblah
3 years 7 months ago

Mixed here…

On one hand, I agree with the masses that Dave is vastly over-rating May (looks like one in a long line who could not make the jump to advanced ball, with questionable to straight horrible numbers in A+ and AA the last three seasons) and probably giving Worley more credit then he deserves (allows an absolute ton of hits/base-runners because of inferior stuff, never pitched 200 innings, major arm issues, etc…)

On the other hand though… 19! Nineteen! One-Nine!!! That is how many extra base hits Revere managed last season. In another article there is a questioning of Alex Gordons “power” because Alex only managed 14 Homers and 5 Triples. For those of you with 1st grade mathematical skills, thats 19 times Gordon managed to get 3-4 bases on a hit. Oh, and that goes along with FIFTY-ONE DOUBLES!

What that resulted in is Revere managing 175 Total Bases. To put that in context, its the same number Michael Cuddyer produced in 159 fewer PA. Or put it another way, John Mayberry totaled that while hitting just .245 with a pitiful .301 OBP and rather average .395 SLG – oh, and John also had 75 fewer PA!

Or think of it this way; Fangraphs has 143 hitters Qualifying. Of those 143, Ben Revere’s 13 Doubles ranked… well, tied for dead last with Drew Stubbs (you know, a guy who also had 14 Dingers.)

There is a lot of talk about Juan Pierre and his production in his “prime” – but overlooked is the fact that Pierre was managing as many Triples those seasons as Doubles produced by Revere last year, while Juan was good for 20-30 Doubles on top of that and at least a homer or two. Granted Pierre was getting more PA, but the 1 Double every 43 PA and 1 Triple every 92 times to the plate is not going to help Ben catch up much at all even with a additional 200 or so PA. In reality, Pierre in his prime was a .80-.95 ISO guy; Ben has yet to top .50 (a number Pierre didnt fall below until his move to LA) So yep, Revere actually has LESS POWER then Pierre by a fair amount!

I just dont see it with Ben. He’s cheap, controllable and probably a Defense Wiz for Center – but his bat might just be the worst we have seen in quite a while. And while a Maury Wills clone might have proved valuable back when hitting was hard to find in the 60s, I’m not so sure it will stick in todays game

Ian
Guest
Ian
3 years 7 months ago

We shouldn’t view this in a vacuum. Given the number of pitchers remaining, isn’t it possible the cost of acquiring a starter is significantly less than the cost of acquiring Bourn. The equation shouldn’t be Worley + May for Revere. It should be Worley + May + Bourn for Revere + Unnamed Pitcher.

If they don’t sign a pitcher, the deal is silly, but isn’t the loss of May worth the cost savings comparing Bourn to a pitcher of similar value?

bambam
Guest
bambam
3 years 7 months ago

I don’t mind this trade but I will die if the RAJ would be stupid enough to sign Michael Young

John Tribble
Guest
John Tribble
3 years 7 months ago

Thanks Dave Cameron for having a comments section. I learned much more from reading the comments then enduring anymore of your BS article. This is why people are starting to not like baseball, people like you who write articles and it seems like you’ve never watched an inning.

Old Media
Guest
Old Media
3 years 7 months ago

Every single person here (including me) is a sucker for posting or reacting to Cameron’s nonsense. Cameron is employing the MSNBC/FoxNews approach. Ignore a contemplative, reasoned approach in favor of a narrative bound to generate outrage and comments.

And the best part, for him, is the appetite for this style is high. Alas, I guess Fangraphs is banking on the BBWAA respecting pageviews and not actual coverage of the sport…

Nahder
Guest
Nahder
3 years 7 months ago

Its Completely true not only have I posted multiple times I have checked back multiple times a day to see what new comments their were to go along with this ridiclousness. Another small point no one has mentioned yet. Alot of the community and Dave has also said that they would build around young position players over young pitchers because of the injury risk and attrition rate of young pitchers. But that never gets mentioned once only that its a swap of equal players.

k
Guest
k
3 years 7 months ago

Bad trade by the Phillies, and I’d be willing to bet most of the people who disagree on here are Phillies fanboys/defenders or Dave Cameron haters. Revere has a career OBP of .319, zero power, let’s grant that he’s a good defender. Not worth an average SP and a guy that could either be a setup guy/closer or if he fixes some things, a solid SP. It is without question an overpay, and time will prove that.

BRAVESFAN
Guest
BRAVESFAN
3 years 7 months ago

Is Ed Wade running the show again?

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david moore
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david moore
3 years 7 months ago

The reason Revre didn’t play CF is he has NO ARM. Also, the lowest isolated pwer among reularrs in the mjors last year.

Steve Jeltz
Guest
Steve Jeltz
3 years 7 months ago

Ben Revere: A poor man’s Richie Ashburn. A rich man’s Bob Dernier.

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