Philly Offer for Pence Too Good to Pass Up

Rumors are swirling that the Philadelphia Phillies are zeroing in on Houston Astros outfielder Hunter Pence. What I don’t understand, though, is why the Phillies don’t already have him. The rumored offering for the 28-year-old outfielder is top prospects Jarred Cosart and Jonathan Singleton, along with a third unnamed prospect. While Pence is a very nice baseball player, he is not a difference-maker all on his own. Nor is he a star player.

Currently in his prime, Pence will likely be on the downswing of his career by the time the Astros organization is a legitimate contender. The organization has massive rebuilding to do to be able to create sustained success. The last few drafts by the club give hope to that rebuilding mode; they’ve done very well by picking up the likes of infielder Delino DeShields Jr. and pitchers Mike Foltynewicz, Vincent Velasquez, Tanner Bushue, as well as (likely) 2011 first rounder George Springer. The club has also scouted the international market well (second baseman Jose Altuve) despite limited budgets.

The package being offered up for Pence is almost as good as the one that the Toronto Blue Jays received when they traded Roy Halladay to the Phillies. Arguably one of the top-three pitchers in all of baseball and a true No. 1 ace, the right-hander netted Toronto pitcher Kyle Drabek, catcher Travis d’Arnaud, and outfielder Michael Taylor. Halladay was a 5.0 to 7.0 WAR pitcher at the time of the trade. Pence is a 3.0 to 4.0 WAR position player.

*Halladay was older at the time, more expensive, and Toronto had its back against the wall, had to make a deal, and other teams knew it.

Prior to the 2011 season, I ranked Singleton and Cosart Nos. 2 and 3, respectively, on the club’s top-10 list behind outfielder Domonic Brown. With pitcher Jordan Lyles graduated to the Majors for Houston, the two Phillies prospects would rank Nos. 1 and 2 on the Astros’ 2012 top-10 list.

Just 19, Singleton has held his own in high-A ball this season with a triple-slash line of .282/.386/.411 in 316 at-bats. He’s shown an advanced eye at the plate with a walk rate of 14.6%. His strikeout rate is respectable for a young power hitter (22%), although his full power potential has yet to show up in game situations (.133 ISO). He does have some work to do on his overall game, including improving against southpaws (.189 average). Currently splitting time between first base and left field, Singleton is probably a long-term first sacker and a move back permanetly may help his bat develop even quicker. If all goes well for him, I can see his floor being Pence with the ceiling of a 5.0+ WAR player.

Prior to 2011, Cosart and Brody Colvin were the top-two pitching prospects in the Phillies organization with prospect analysts split on whom they liked better. Keith Law and myself preferred Cosart (higher ceiling) while Kevin Goldstein, Baseball America, and John Sickels ranked Colvin higher (more durable). Cosart has really broken out this season while remaining healthy. He’s made 19 starts (20 appearances) and pitched a career-high 108.0 innings. His ERA has jumped to 6.11 in July and he has pitched 37.0 more innings than ever before in a season, so it may be time to shut him down soon with an eye to 2012. His delivery is not the prettiest, which leads to injury concerns, but Cosart has a mid-to-high 90s fastball, good curveball and developing changeup.

The majority of the top prospects in the organization, though, are in the lower levels. And the Astros front office knows this. The club is rumored to be looking for high-ceiling, but lower-level talent. It’s a smart decision to try and develop a strong, sustainable wave of talent rather than try and appease the playoff-hungry fan-base with a win-now mentality that would only result in one or two years of success while once again shedding all the key talent in the minor league system.

If both prospects continue on their current development path, Cosart and Singleton have the potential to be the types of players that any organization could build around.




Print This Post



Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospect analysis. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.


92 Responses to “Philly Offer for Pence Too Good to Pass Up”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Patrick says:

    This will go down as Amaro’s worst move since the Howard contract if he sends Cosart AND Singleton. If he includes Brown with Cosart, he should be run out of town.

    +5 Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. TK says:

    I’d love to see this. The phillies weakened farm system for a slightly above average player AND the Braves avoid overpaying for Pence, which I fear they’d do.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Bill says:

      Would you still love it if Pence is the reason the Phils beat the Braves in the playoffs? The Phils are in a different position than the Braves. It makes more sense for an old team like Philly to overpay for someone than a young team like Atl.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • RC says:

        Pence is a 3WAR player. He isn’t going to be the reason anything happens. He’s just not good enough.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Kool says:

        Cody Ross disagrees.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • TK says:

        No, I would not be happy if Pence were the reason the Phils beat the Braves. Brilliant adecdote. Can I steal that?

        I’m not sure how it makes sense for one of the best teams, clearly the best team in the NL, to unload bigtime prospects for Pence. Are they giving up on 2013-17?

        Should the Braves unload their valuable near-term assets because they aren’t the best team? McCann and Hudson for a bunch of prospects – would that make sense?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Preston says:

        We really have no idea what Philly’s salary restrictions are. But all indications are that they are at (or at least very near) their limit. So they probably won’t be able to re-sign a lot of their players in the coming years due to the albatross Howard and Lee contracts. So yes maybe they are giving up on 2013-2017 in favor of today.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • DCUnited says:

        Pence is a 3 WAR player? Really? REALLY?

        Sorry, reality says your full of it.

        Pence has put up the following WAR in his 4 MLB years:

        3.9
        3.5
        4.1
        3.3

        He’s got 2.6 so far this year. It’s safe to say he’ll be in his 3.5-4 range as always. Producing at his current pace should lock him in at 4 and give him a real chance to set a career high in WAR.

        Pence is 9th in WAR for all RF. That’s got to be worth something. He’s not a star, but he’s a serious upgrade at the MLB level for a legitimate WS contender.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • CircleChange11 says:

        Pence is at least a 3 WAR player, which we should value above averages players quite a bit.

        If he were replacing Ibanez, a 3-4 WAR player would be replacing a guy producing -1.5 WAR.

        But, he’s not … he’s replacing a guy that’s producing at a projected 0.6 WAR pace.

        I don;t see how this isn’t a good upgrade?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Marc Hulet says:

    If the third player being negotiated between the two organizations ends up being pitcher Trevor May or Jesse Biddle, catcher Sebastian Valle, or outfielder Jiwan James then this trade becomes a huge win for Houston (and significantly drains Philly’s system).

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Sean O'Neill says:

      It already is a huge win for the Astros; that would just make it absurd. It’s probably still a win for the Astros even if you subbed May for Cosart. The fact they reputedlly declined that offer is shocking.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Andrew says:

    Everyone (including the Phillies) are touting Cosart as the #1 prospect in this deal, but word around the organization is that they are doing so to avoid having to talk about Julio Rodriguez. Smoke and mirrors to keep him out of any talks as the Phillies consider him having a higher updside than Cosart.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Nik says:

      That is just nonsense. JuRod has fringy ML stuff. He’s far behind Cosart, Colvin, May and Biddle.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Andrew says:

        Fringy? He’s 13-6 with 3.03ERA and a 1.08 WHIP for Clearwater this year (better than Cosart BTW). I’m not saying he’s the #1 prospect on the farm, I’m saying that the organization wants to keep him out of trade talks b/c they view his upside as potentially greater than the others you mentioned.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • don says:

        He has a big slow curveball that works against A hitters that they don’t think will work against better hitters. He’s not viewed as a top-5 pitching prospect in Philly’s system.

        Amaro must love seeing his name in the papers. If no good trades are available, make a bad one!

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • AndyinBoston says:

      You do realize that Julio Rodriguez throws in the high 80s. There’s no way that Rodriguez is even a top 4 pitching prospect in Philly’s system (Cosart, Biddle, May, Colvin, and Pettibone).

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • JoeDE says:

      No one anywhere considers JRod as having higher upside then Cosart. Where are you possibly getting that from?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. Nik says:

    Someone give Amaro whatever Lincecum ate on Tuesday. He’ll bee too occupied to make a mistake like this.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Kevin says:

    If Ed Wade turns this deal down, them I’m pretty sure he’s still working for the Phillies.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Andrew says:

      Agreed! This would be to sweet of a deal for him to pass up.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • baty says:

      There’s still time for negotiation, and I imagine, that Houston is drawing this out to try to lure Dominic Brown into the equation. When that doesn’t work, before the final minutes of the deadline, they’ll take it.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Muggi says:

        The Astros apparently don’t love Brown, want to flip him for more pitching prospects hence the Yankee rumors.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • BX says:

      Unless he draws it out in a way to get Dom Brown involved. If Amaro is really that obsessed with Pence, squeeze every last drop out of his farm system in the process.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. Bill says:

    Phillies will be a last place team by 2014.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Kevin says:

      The worlds going to end in 2012 any way so I’m cool with that.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Bill says:

      yeah, but if they have two more WS appearance between then and now and another title, I’m pretty sure every Phillies’ fan will be ok with it. Flags Fly forever.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Greg says:

        I won’t be okay with it because there would be no reason to believe Hunter freakin Pence was the difference maker in those WS. It’s like saying I’m going to chop off my left hand but if I get that awesome job I applied for it will be totally worth it.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • CircleChange11 says:

        When I think of the Blue Jays, I don’t think of the 70s or 80s, but 92 and 93.

        I think the Phillies owe it to themselves, with their current rotation, to do as much as they can to “increase their chip count for the final table”.

        There’s still time to make moves for 2014. Now is now.

        By 2014, every series is going to Nationals vs. Royals anyway (sarcasm).

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Felonius_Monk says:

      They’re paying Ryan Howard 25 f’ing million a year into his late 30s, so I think they were going to struggle beyond then anyhow.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Nik says:

    Just like the Yankees every year? A fat payroll covers up a lot of mistakes.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. Marc Hulet says:

    Rodriguez would not be a deal breaker. He has a No. 4 starter ceiling.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. Scott G says:

    Maybe it’s that fact that it’s Hunter Pence, but this is the first time in a while I haven’t wanted the Phillies to sell the future for the present. Prospects panning out is very hit or miss, but it’s never a good thing when you get rid of this many of your top prospects for a non-”game changer”.

    I’m pretty sure I’d rather have Quentin anyway, especially if the asking price were lower.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • D says:

      You know that Quentin has put up negative WAR the previous 2 years and a large part of him looking valuable this year has to do with a huge jump in his defense from atrocious to above average(I don’t his skills changed that much).

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Scott G says:

        In 2008, he posted a 4.8 WAR. In my mind, he’s coming in to replace Ibanez (assuming the Phillies don’t have to trade Dom Brown). In which case, I don’t really care what those numbers say about Quentin, he cannot be worse defensively than Raul.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Phils Goodman says:

        Which is why you shouldn’t take any single-season UZR rating so seriously. Regress Quinten’s fielding to his 3-year averages, and you will see the truer picture — more consistent WAR totals.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • CircleChange11 says:

        For the same reason, I don;t why we put so much emphasis in a single year’s WAR numbers either.

        Depends whether we’r looking for “true talent” or “season value”, I guess.

        I don’t trust UZR. See: Soriano, Alfonso.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Phillie697 says:

      I agree. I rather have Quentin than Pence. Hell I’d rather have Cuddyer than Pence.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. Jamie says:

    I assume the only reason this isn’t done is because Drayton wants to have Pence available for some upcoming birthday parties and pony rides.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. Jmits90 says:

    Singleton has the floor of Pence. Your really going to say that for a 1b showing very little power in A ball.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • don says:

      He has a .160 ISO over the last two years and he’s literally the youngest regular in the league. Also, the FSL is generally regarded as pitcher friendly.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jmits90 says:

        I realize he is a very good prospect and has a lot of talent but the last four years hunter pence WAR ranged from 3.3-4.1. If that’s his floor and has 5+ war ceiling he is a top 5 prospect and I would prefer him over Dominic Brown.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • don says:

        Yeah, that WAR projection I’m sure is on the better end of potential results. But I wouldn’t call that very little power either, it’s above league average (.123 ISO) from a very young player. Of course as a LF/1B type he needs to show power to be a legit prospect.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • baty says:

        If only someone could teach Singleton how to hit lefties… We could set his floor at around Prince Fielder

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Anon21 says:

      Well, he attempted to qualify by saying “if all goes well.” It’s sort of a double-contingent statement, which is confusing. But that’s sort of how people tend to talk about prospects.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jmits90 says:

        I guess I kind of took that qoute the wrong way. To me it seemed as if that will most likely happen unless he gets injured or something. Either way the chances of him actually becoming that player is at the most 50% but realistically around 20%

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Sean O'Neill says:

      His overall power numbers were dragged down by a new swing the Phillies tried to have him implement (with fairly mediocre results). Since he switched back at the end of May, his numbers have improved signicantly (Iso around .160, almost as many walks as Ks).

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Joe says:

        And the Yankees want a lefty hitting OF? Sure if they don’t exercise an option with Swisher they have a spot but do you really want an all lkefthanded hitting OF?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Joe says:

        oops wrong spot on the reply… not sure what happened.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. JT Grace says:

    If trading for Pence means the Phillies give up some combination of Cosart, Brown and Singleton then I hope they get him.

    Go Braves!!!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. Angelsjunky says:

    Roy Halladay being “arguably one of the Top 3 pitchers in all of baseball” is a massive understatement. Halladay is arguably in the “Top 1″ in all of baseball, and I would say inarguably in the top 3, or at least I don’t see an argument for saying he’s not one of the best three pitchers in baseball.

    One way to look at it is by asking, who is better? Or who MIGHT be better? According to 2011 WAR, only CC Sabathia, with Weaver and Verlander just a hair behind (and they’re probably leap-frogging each other by starts) – and we’re talking about just this year. Considering that performance fluctuates somewhat year to year, we need to at least look at the last two seasons, maybe more. Here are the top 3 WAR leaders over multiple seasons:

    This year (2011): Sabathia, Halladay, Verlander/Weaver
    Last two years (2010-11): Halladay, Verlander, Weaver/Lee
    Last three years (2009-11): Verlander, Halladay, Lee
    Last four years (2008-11): Halladay, Lee, Sabathia
    Last five years (2007-11): Halladay, Sabathia, Lincecum

    So you’ve got a few names repeating: Sabathia, Halladay, Verlander, Weaver, Lee, and Lincecum. If Adam Wainwright had been healthy this year, he’d probably be in the mix, especially for the last three years. Felix Hernandez is conspicuously absent, although I’m sure if we spaced it out to top five or ten we’d see him pop up, along with Haren, Greinke, Kershaw, Lester, Johnson, etc – the second tier aces.

    The only two pitchers that are among the top three in each of the first three categories are Halladay and Verlander, so I think you’ve got to include them in any top 3 rankings. Then you’ve got to make a choice between Sabathia, Weaver, and Lee, as Lincecum has dropped back a bit. Of those three, a deeper level of research is required.

    Another approach would be to weight WAR so that 2011 is worth three shares (so times three), 2010 two shares, and 2009 one share. Then we’d get the following rankings, with their weighted totals:

    36.5 Verlander
    36.4 Halladay
    33.6 Sabathia
    32.5 Lee
    31.3 Weaver
    30.0 Hernandez
    29.2 Lincecum
    28.9 Haren
    27.6 Kershaw
    26.4 Greinke
    25.8 Jimenez
    25.0 Hamels
    23.5 Lester
    23.3 Johnson

    That’s a pretty good list, I think. One might say that this unfairly penalizes injured players (Wainwright, Lester, Johnson), but as someone said (Bill James?), staying healthy is a skill, so those players might throw a baseball just as well as anyone else, but they lack the important skill of how to stay healthy (see: “Prior, Mark” or “Harden, Rich”).

    I’m one of those folks that doesn’t think WAR is everything, not to mention the fact that if we compiled a Baseball Reference list we’d probably come up with slightly different rankings. And certainly I believe in giving credence to factors that can’t easily be statistically evaluated, like the so-called “big game pitchers.” But it says something, and something important. For instance, one thing I didn’t realize before compiling this list was just how good Justin Verlander has been.

    All things tolled I’ve still got to give the title of “best pitcher in baseball” to Roy Halladay…at least right now, and maybe for the rest of the year. Next year? Verlander could take the throne. But those two seem to be the clear 1-2, with Sabathia a probable third, Lee tenuously holding onto 4th and Weaver catching up. Hernandez is having a slight off year, otherwise he’d be up there somewhere in the Lee-Weaver vicinity.

    What does this have to do with this article? Not much. I admittedly nitpicked a minor point and ran with it…but had fun while doing so.

    +11 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Wilson says:

      Without verifying my hypothesis, I think you can extend your analyst to last 6, 7, 8, 9, etc years and Halladay’s #1 probably until you get to 2001 or so, which was his now famous awful season that changed everything.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Tommy says:

      “arguably one of…” is arguable one of the top three worst qualifying statement people write.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. Randy says:

    Brown could be better than Pence NEXT YEAR. The Phillies would be wise to go after Quentin. The Astros would be wise to take any of those prospects from the Phillies for Pence. They need to trade Wandy and Myers….for anything.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  16. Matt Brown says:

    Saying Singleton has a floor of Pence is ridiculous. Singleton has a floor of AA washout. He’s not exactly tearing up High-A, but he’s doing well enough to earn the promotion to AA. How will he do there? Who knows? If he doesn’t find a power stoke and can’t play anything but 1B or LF, he may never make it out. THat’s a realistic possibility. Even if he continues to hit with similar slash lines at higher levels, that’s not exactly what you want from either of these power positions. And what are the chances he’ll be able to play LF when he’s 25 if it’s already questionable when he’s 19?

    The Astros already have a guy who hit better in the minors than Singleton and isn’t panning out at the Major League level. Wallace is a primo example of a top prospect who has ended up not exactly having the impact everyone thought he would when he was younger. There are literally thousands of others. Dominc Brown might even be headed in that direction.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Sean O'Neill says:

      Wallace is a terrible example. He was an advanced college bat with questionable power, and the power concerns turned out to be justified. Singleton is a teenager who hasn’t even begun to enter his power prime, and his Iso is still above average (his advanced plate approach also shouldn’t be ignored).

      You can’t expect power to increase as a player gets older, because not every player matures in a linear manner (why, hello there Andy Marte), but that said, if I was projecting him going forward I’d definitely pencil in a reasonable IsoP increase each year for the next few years. Given his baseline, an IsoP over .200 a couple years from now seems quite reasonable.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Oasis says:

        But a “floor” of .200 is not reasonable at all. The OP is right his floor is AA washout. He also has a pronounced home/road split. The lack of even doubles is troubling.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Mdb says:

      I agree. A 19 year 1st baseman with a .133 iso! Yippee. This trade makes sense for both teams.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  17. noseeum says:

    When you have Halladay, Lee, Hamels, and Oswalt, it’s definitely win now mode. This may be a haul for the Astros, but I think you can make the case that it makes sense for the Phillies to do this.

    Offense is clearly the Phillies’ main weakness this year when compared to their playoff competition. They missed out on Beltran, who went straight to one of their main playoff competitors in the Giants.

    The Braves have a much younger more cost controlled pitching core than the Phillies, so I can see them saying, “it’s best to go with what we go right now because we’re only going to be better next year.”

    But Halladay, Lee, and Oswalt are all marching quickly towards 35. Amaro is justified in thinking this is the year to go for it no holds barred. As they say, “flags fly forever!”

    Pence may not be the greatest outfielder in baseball, but he will help the Phillies in an area where they have the greatest need.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  18. RobL says:

    While Cosart has great stuff, the jury seems to be out on him being a starter in the future. The Astros scouts could easily deem him a reliever. Then the return is not so great.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  19. tdotsports1 says:

    Agreed, this makes no sense, maybe Astro’s people are leaking this in the hope of driving up the price for another team.

    Brown isn’t far off Pence and could be a clone or better by next season. Singleton hasn’t been as good (SLG, ISO) but still a ton of potential.

    Head scratcher.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • CircleChange11 says:

      Brown isn’t far off Pence and could be a clone or better by next season.

      The numbers 2, 3, 4 don’t sound like big numbers … but in regards to WAR difference, they are.

      Do people get that the PHL are not acquiring Pence primarily for the 2012 or 2013, but for trying to win a WS in 2011.

      Brown may be as good as pence in 2013, but that doesn’t help them in 2011.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Greg says:

        But why do they need help in 2011? They have a something like a 98% chance to make the playoffs and will be the favorite in the national league to make the WS. The playoffs are a crap shoot in general and Hunter Pence will move the needle maybe 1% at most. How is that worth the potential value they give up in Cosart and Singleton?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • CircleChange11 says:

        That would be a great point to make.

        Philly could have been even more dominant if it weren’t for injuries. I’m not sure they NEED Pence, but …

        … having him makes their team stronger.

        Again, we’re either going to use WAR consistently and for value or we’re not (as a community).

        Pence: 2.6 WAR 430 PA
        Victorino: 4.5 WAR 339 PA
        Mayberry 1.1 WAR in 168 PA
        Brown: 0.2 WAR in 203 PA
        Ibanez: -1.2 WAR in 394 PA

        I think the case can be made that Pence makes the Phillies better … and provides a righty bat in a lefty strong lineup.

        People can tawlk about how good Brown will be in the future, but he hasn’t been that good this year, and right now 2011 matters.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  20. metsfan says:

    Jason Bay for Ibanez, straight up. Phillies get a righty bat that has a slim chance of jumpstarting his career. Mets get a corpse and some salary relief.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  21. Christopher says:

    Jon Heyman just reported that the Astros don’t love those prospects and possibly Dom Brown as well.

    Ed Wade!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  22. Bronnt says:

    You don’t get to be the #30 organization without cause. If Houston overvalues Pence to the point that he doesn’t get traded, they’re only prolonging their misery as one of the worst teams in baseball.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  23. Nick says:

    I must say, you seem to just be listing their top draft picks and labeling them as “Very well” as a blanket statement. None of their stats are particularly impressive at all…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Santos says:

      I’d assume when it comes to prospects, though, stats, particularly ones you’d find in a box score, may or may not be misleading. You are trying to evaluate potential and future performance, which can be measured in ways that won’t show up in traditional statistics (approach, physical ability, mechanics, etc.).

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  24. j_ordan says:

    i’m not about to defend ed wade (obviously) but there are significant concerns about both those guys. everyone has already been over why singleton could wash out (personally i see his floor as chris davis, not hunter pence) and cosart has questionable arm action and has already hurt his elbow.

    i don’t think there’s anything wrong with ed wade trying to get something better out of the braves, or at least using the braves to try and potentially milk dom brown out of the phillies.

    now, if he doesn’t trade pence at all, than he’s still a massive idiot. but give it a few days.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  25. kid says:

    Those prospects are way too young to be talked about as future franchise pieces. Good 1B prospect? I can swing a dead cat and hit five dozen of those.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  26. CircleChange11 says:

    If both prospects continue on their current development path, Cosart and Singleton have the potential to be the types of players that any organization could build around.

    This seems like a very strange conclusion to be made from a data-based website.

    What are the odds that both ‘prospects’ continue their current development path? Is it even worth considering? Especially given that the 2011 Phillies are trying to win a WS.

    Is it just me or does FG not value winning the WS too highly? Do they/we assume that it’s far too much “luck” or a “crapshoot” to really be valuable? That’s it’s more important to win 80-86 games every year for a long stretch? I admit, I’m kinda lost on this.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Santos says:

      I think regarding your world series comment, it is widely viewed that the playoffs are, as a whole, a crap shoot due to the nature of the short series. There is so much random variation in a short series that the best team won’t necessarily come out on top. I would think thier stance would not be to win 80-86 games a year for a long stretch but to put together the best team possible without sacrificing future success. Don’t waste value on a couple extra wins if your team is already slated to make the playoffs at the expense of success down the road. That’s my take anyway.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • don says:

      Until proven otherwise, the Phillies are the biggest budget team in the NL by a long shot. That changes the equation. The window doesn’t close unless they make it close by trading away every prospect with star potential. They should contend every year like Boston and the Yankees, except in a division with two well run teams instead of 4.

      Anyway, Pence doesn’t really improve the Phillies by all that much unless he replaces Ibanez, but it’s quite likely he’d replace Brown because Manuel over-trusts vets. He’s an above average RF who is only viewed as a star because he’s the best player on an awful team.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Greg says:

        This.

        Also, the value that Pence has provided the Astros this year was largely due to a high, BABIP fueled, average. Why should the Phils pay a ranson for someone’s past production when there are many indications that it won’t be continued moving forward? The Phils window only closes in two years if they close it themselves by trading away prospects for a very slight upgrade today.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Antonio Bananas says:

        The Phillie aren’t the Yankees and Red Sox. The Phillies are recently good, so they sell out a lot. In 3 years, when they have about 100M locked up on 4 old players past their prime, and they didn’t save a dime this whole time, and they aren’t selling out the stadium, it’s going to be bad.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  27. Oasis says:

    If you think anybody’s floor is a 3WAR All-Star then you don’t know what the word means.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Oasis says:

      If Hunter Pence is Singleton’s floor, then by your stupid logic Albert Pujols is Bryce Harper’s floor.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • baty says:

      “If all goes well for him, I can see his floor being Pence with the ceiling of a 5.0+ WAR player.”

      definitely a misuse of “floor”. What if less than all goes well for him?

      Anyway, Singleton is CLUELESS against LHPs. His numbers remind me of Lars Anderson quite a bit. He’s got a long long way to go.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  28. BX says:

    Ed Wade just took the deal that was “too good” to pass up. Cosart, Singleton, and 2 PTBNL probably of lesser nature.

    Nice job, Ed Wade.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  29. Robbie G. says:

    It will be irritating if Philly continues to trot Raul Ibanez out there every day (or nearly every day). Seems fairly obvious that a Domonic Brown-John Mayberry platoon in LF is the way to go. Raul Ibanez is demoted to Ross Gload’s LH pinch hitter roster spot, Gload gets DFA.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  30. Robbie G. says:

    For what it’s worth, I have taken a look at how Hunter Pence’s OPS stacks up with other right-handed OFs’ OPS during 2009, 2010, and 2011. Take a look:

    2009

    Carlos Lee .831
    Martin Prado .822
    Hunter Pence .818
    Juan Rivera .810
    Marlon Byrd .808
    Magglio Ordonez .804

    2010

    Martin Prado .809
    Justin Upton .799
    Chris Young .793
    Alex Rios .791
    Hunter Pence .786
    Marlon Byrd .775
    Drew Stubbs .773

    2011

    Michael Cuddyer .849
    Nelson Cruz .847
    Hunter Pence .828
    Adam Jones .811

    These are names of players who appear immediately before and after Pence when sorting RH OFs based on OPS. Are these players for whom you’d trade the top two prospects in your minor league system? Uh, no. If Pence were a New York Yankee, would he be considered a star? Does anybody really consider Nick Swisher a star? Hell, if Pence were a New York Yankee, would he even be a starter? I get that the Phillies needed a right-handed OF bat, and that they’re trying to win now, but surely they could’ve gotten Pence for less, or gotten more (Carlos Quentin?) for this Cosart-Singleton package.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Matt says:

      Agreed that too much was definitely given up for Pence. I don’t really have issue giving up Cosart given the increased volatility of pitching prospects, not to mention Cosart has injury concerns to begin with. Not a big fan of giving up Singleton, however. I would’ve loved to get Quentin, which would’ve been a REAL impact RH bat, not the marginal offensive upgrade Pence seems to be (although, as it seems Brown will go to AAA and Ibanez will keep starting…ugh…that’d be one terrible defensive set of corner outfielders).

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Matt Brown says:

      If in addition to the OPS they played above average defence with some speed and a community-friendly attitude, yes.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Oasis says:

      If that player’s name is Justin Upton (who appears on the 2010 list), then the answer is no. I trade my top 10 prospects to get him.

      Drew Stubbs is a borderline yes as well.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • CircleChange11 says:

      Since when did TCQ become such a hot commodity. All I’ve been reading about for the last two years regarding him is that you (or the CWS) cannot win with him in RF (or any outfield position), noting his below replacement level performance for the previous 2 seasons.

      Now, this year, he evidently went form the worst fielding RF in the game (outside of Dunn) to average to above average … and that’s the basic difference between his 2.8 WAR and his -0.5 WAR.

      I haven’t watched a ton of ChiSox games this year, but how does one go from -15 and -24 FRuns to +3?

      He’s always been an average to above average bat (wOBA), but the common sentiment was he takes it all away with his glove. Where’s everyone in pointing out that he’s walking less, striking out more, and has a higher BABIP this year … and predicting his demise once his performance matches his peripherals and his fielding “regresses”?

      If PHL were to trade for TCQ, would these be the types of comments that we’d read.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  31. Antonio Bananas says:

    So does this mean for sure Atlanta goes hard for Upton? They have 4 pitchers they can built a trade around, Minor, Teheran, Delgado, Vizcaino. Given the success/fail rate of position players and pitchers, I’d say atlanta trading one of them and some other players (as long as it’s not 2 of the 4) for Upton then it’s a win for the Braves. Plus they’d have Upton, Heyward, and Freeman all on the same team along with that great young pen and their great young arms. Probably like 5 top 25 players under 25.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current ye@r *