Pirate Scraps: Zach Duke
In an unsurprising move, the Pittsburgh Pirates designated pitcher Zach Duke (along with third baseman Andy LaRoche and infielder/outfielder Dewlyn Young) for assignment on Friday. Like most Pittsburgh hurlers, Duke 2010 numbers were dreadful, so the move made sense for the team. However, this does not mean that Duke shouldn’t be given a serious look by other teams assuming the likely scenario of him becoming a free agent. That’s right, teams should be looking over some of the Pirates’ table scraps.
Pittsburgh’s pitching was expected to be the weak spot on a 2010 poor team, and in fact they would not even manage seven wins above replacement as a group. Lefty Zach Duke was thought to be to be a potential source of stability, but despite the league-wide drop in scoring, Duke’s 5.72 ERA was the worst of his career. A 4.95 FIP wasn’t quite so bad, but was still pretty bad given the run environment, and over 159 innings Duke managed just under half a win above replacement. This was a serious disappointment after his 2.0 WAR in 2008 and 2.5 WAR in 2009.
As David Golebiewski pointed out back in September, however, Duke’s inflated 2010 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. Duke’s high BABIP (.347) was likely influenced by the poor infield defense behind him. Although Duke did a better than average job of keeping the ball on the ground, his bad fortune on fly balls (nearly 14% in 2010, league average is around 10-11%) lead to more home runs. His xFIP, which normalizes not only batted ball issues but also home run rates, was more respectable 4.48 (although his tERA was a career-worst 5.19). While Duke did issue a few more free passes than in the past, his walk rate was still better than average. He isn’t a strikeout pitcher, but his strikeout rate was significantly higher than in the previous few seasons. In other words, he probably isn’t as bad as he looked in 2010. CHONE’s last update puts his true talent, context-neutral component ERA at 4.65; depending on the level of attrition how many innings he can be expected to pitch in 2011, his 2011 projection is probably between one and 1.5 Wins. That isn’t great, but it isn’t useless. That would make him a decent back -of-the-rotation starter for most of the league.
It made sense for the Pirates to let Duke go. Duke was paid about $4.3 million dollars in 2010, so his likely award for 2011 (his third season of arbitration) would be at least five million dollars, probably closer to six million. That isn’t far off from what his projection says he would be worth on the open market, but given the Pirates’ location on the win curve, spending that kind of money on a poor starter past the point of having significant “upside” doesn’t really make sense for the franchise.
However, assuming the Pirates don’t try to bring Duke back at a lesser salary (and/or that he isn’t interested in doingn so), other teams should take a look, and probably will. FIP and xFIP don’t tell the whole story, but in Duke’s case there isn’t a great discrepancy between his career ERA (4.54) and xFIP (4.40), so his xFIP for 2010 is probably a better representation of his true talent. His tendencies towards low walks, low strikeouts, and ground balls point to the possibility that Duke could be a left-handed, poor man’s Carl Pavano. That isn’t terribly exciting, but we aren’t talking about a premier free agent. We’re talking about a pitcher whose value might be down due to a poor ERA in 2010 and thus might come cheap relative to his expected value. He won’t anchor a rotation, but if you compare his combined peripherals and projections to other pitchers, he could be a good #5 or swing-man for a contender or a #4 for a team in transition. Even rebuilding teams need to put players on the field, but back-end starters are not unlike fourth outfielders — most teams shouldn’t give up significant money or talent to acquire them.
Duke is left-handed and will be only 28; so some teams might overvalue him and pay him his market value (which might make sense in a few cases) or more. If not, he could provide value and stability for a non-contender at two or three million dollars for 2011. That is not chump change, but it is a better use of that money than on the veteran utility players and mediocre relievers on whom teams so often blow payroll.
I feel like a change in coaching could help Duke as well. A pitching coach who could really help Duke get a feel for pitching off his off-speed stuff could probably increase his K numbers a little, and a drop to average in GB rate and a rise to average in K rate could make Duke a slightly better than league average starter.
It will be interesting if Duke lands on a team that a) has a decent D, b) a sizeable home park, and c) an offense that can score some runs. I’d think as a back-end option in SD, SF, or LA he’d do ok.
Yeah, I think he makes a lot of sense for the Padres
I wonder if the M’s will show some interest too. Safeco’s a pretty good home for a fringe-y LHP.
Is their ANY pitcher that would not do better in that situation?
Frankly, if a pitcher is depending on great defense, a big park, and a lot of run support in order to be successful … the team shouldn’t depend on that pitcher.
Given the number of RHB’s in the league, a LHP needs to have good stuff in order to be a successful starter. He doesn’t.
At this point of his career, the optimism for him regaining his previous best is likely less than the likelihood that he blocks a young pitcher from developing.
Duke does not appear to be a 3-4 WAR SP that just needs the “right fit”. He looks like a guy that is losing it, and turning into a homer thrower.
Lots of statistical gymnastics required in order to make Duke look “not horrific”. I would not be so concerned with the 2M/y, as I would occupying the roster spot and taking up IP that could go to a younger pitcher with a higher cieling that needs some MLB experience.
The one thing that has me intersted is that pitching in PIT year-after-year has to be a motivation killer. While the mental can only compensate so much, a change of scenery and a mentor (or even someone to compete with) might be welcome additions for Duke.
Some team will likely add him simply because of the hand he throws with. Although running him out there instead of a similarly talented RHP might be doing the team a dis-service.
If SF could orchestrate a dynamic trade centered around J. Sanchez, Duke could fill the 5 spot.
Think Kirk Reuter.
At $2 million or so, gambling on a rebound might make sense. My understanding is that Pittsburgh has already tried to bring Duke back at a reduced rate, but there’s been no interest. A concern has to be that the fastball averaged 1.4 mph slower in 2010, the gap between the change and the fastball narrowed, and fewer pitches found the strike zone. Were the home runs bad luck or bad pitches? My money would not be on bad luck right now.
It is true that poor infield defense (and probably poor luck) contributed towards such a high BABIP. However, for Duke’s career he is at .325. Although there is little spread in the true talent for BABIP, there is nonetheless *some* talent, and Duke appears to be below average in this regard for MLB pitchers.
That said, the defense behind him for his career was not random (his home park was also not random), and Duke hasn’t had a lot of strong defenders aside from Jack Wilson through his career.
As a Pirate fan, I would welcome Duke back for the right price, but I think the arbitration process is all but guaranteed to make that price too high.
it seems like nonsense to talk about home run fly ball rates without subtracting the no doubters.. because sometimes its not bad luck that they have more homers per flyball.. maybe some guys just throw more pitches batters drool over
A left hander with decent control?
Don’t those guys usually pitch into their 40′s?
So what if he is a Pirates cast off. That team hasn’t exactly been known for good decisions the last couple of decades.
Duke + Dave Duncan + Busch Field = success?
Duke can easily join the list of castoffs who appear to be on the downside of the career, whether it be talent, age, or the league figured them out, who have resurrected their career with Duncan’s tutelage.
AND, it also can benefit the Cardinals. How, you say? Aside from 1A and 1B (Carpenter and Wainwright) who do they have? (ok, they got a decent rookie, but does a good rookie season translate to a good sophomore season?, no.. ever hear of the sophomore slump?)
Here’s the thing, Duncan has not been all that successful with LHPs.
His primary means is to get guys to pound the zone with strikes that move away from the barrel (into the hands) of RHBs.
For a LHP that would mean a cutter. It would also require Duke to have very good control, and I don’t think he does.
Duncan is very good with a certain type of pitcher (Pineiro, Suppan, Williams, Looper, etc) … generally mechanically sound, strike throwing righties that can get some movement and never had much velocity to sacrifice.
The Cardinals have Lohse, Penny, Garcia as their 3, 4, 5. 2 of the 3 were injured for most of the year.
Brendan Ryan is only so good at short. He cannot save Zach Duke … and neither can Dave Duncan. IMO.
“Brendan Ryan is only so good at short.”
And by “so good” you mean “should be relegated to a bench role.”
I know you were just talking about his defense…I’m just making the larger point that the Cards will struggle to succeed with little-to-no-to-less-than-no offensive contributions from 2B, SS, bringing in Feliz’s corpse, inexplicably sitting Rasmus, etc etc.
Run prevention is useful, but run scoring has its moments, too.
He’s only 28, can sometimes pitch a little better than average, and hes left handed.
He’ll get 1y 4mm…
Can’t be much worse than Barry Zito excluding Zeet’s first half of 2010.
what happens to andy laroche? he went from blue chip prospect to total zero . . .
I got this one, yo. Let me preach on it.
“FIP and xFIP don’t tell the whole story, but in Duke’s case there isn’t a great discrepancy between his career ERA (4.54) and xFIP (4.40), so his xFIP for 2010 is probably a better representation of his true talent”
Roberto is on to something, I think, when he looks at Duke’s stuff, as the actual numbers PitchFx give us point to why we really should be cautious with the “story” xFIP tells us. That closing gap between FB and CH velocity goes from 6.8 to 6.7, 6.5, and 6.3, an already small difference getting smaller still, made all the more important because that fastball on its own has always been a liability. And what really compounds things is that his change really stops moving, losing an inch or more in each direction in just the last year (and more still than years before that).
In other words, an already weak arsenal may be — at a fundamental level — getting worse.
Here’s the problem with trying to dismiss Duke as lucky…
(Like Willlinn was hinting at)
Those fly ball rates that are being considered “unlucky” where given up in some of the least homer friendly parks in the league according to HitTrackeronline.com (if you go by ESPN’s “Park Factors”, PNC is the 5th hardest in all of MLB to hit HRs).
PNC Park (where Duke gave up 12) averaged 1.6HR/gm last year putting it in the lower half of all NL parks. There were 5 parks that has a lower rate of HR/gm and in his starts in those 5 stadiums, he gave up another 6 HRs in 4 starts. That’s 16 of his 25 HRs allowed in the 5/6 hardest places in the NL to hit HRs.
Using hittrackeronline.com again as a reference, there were 5 HRs that Duke gave up that were considered “just enough”. But if you look at those HRs, you will see that 3/5 still carried over 400 ft and the other two were both over 387! Duke’s 12 HRs given up at PNC Park averaged an astounding 408.33 ft per!
While some might consider his fly ball rate unlucky, when you are getting tagged like that, it isn’t luck that is killing you, it’s the meatball that you just lobbed down the pipe.
Well, looks like the 10 day period after Zach Duke’s DFA paid off for the Pirates(rather than a non-tender later), as they found a trading partner, so Duke won’t be released to become a free agent after all.
The Arizona Diamondbacks just acquired Duke from Pittsburgh in exchange for a PTBNL. The player probably won’t be anything of significance, but even getting back organizational filler is better than a straight non-tender. Kudos to Huntington on that.
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