Carson’s post prior to this one inspired me to re-examine the work you did and to update for the entire season. Click the following attachment to see total 2009 for all pitchers at 300+ xOuts.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=0AhdYS83t3IB7dG96cEZycy1Jc1pVRjVxSWdWQUZQcVE&hl=en

I’ve also taken the time to include FIP, xFIP, K%, tRA*, and wOBA. Here’s my post about it that includes the link to the .xls

http://www.draysbay.com/2009/12/23/1217767/updated-ek-with-fip-xfip-woba-k

]]>If it is predictive and if we could develop an expected BB%, then we would really be on to something.

]]>Anyway, I re-ran the numbers to see how things would be different. Because Matt did it for all pitches (see his post below), I thought it might be interesting to look at just the OZ pitches that were whiffs. In one way, it makes sense: The idea is to trick the batters but to do it efficiently. The Top 10 list looks like this:

Rich Harden (15.80%)

Felipe Paulino

Chad Billingsley

Freddy Garcia

Ryan Dempster

John Smoltz

Billy Buckner

Javier Vazquez

Tim Lincecum

Randy Johnson (13.59%)

Again, that’s a list of pitchers who (a) threw a pitch out of the zone, (b) induced a swing with said out-of-zone pitch, and (c) received a whiff on said swing.

Next week, I’ll do a version weighted with in-zone swings and misses.

Sorry to’ve screwed up so royally. Thanks for being a reasonable critic.

]]>I noticed that your article used OZSwStr% but the above post used OContact%, which is why I made the above comment. I think your results are quite impressive – it would be great to see a followup with a better expected FIP based on these peripherals. Even though you threw it out, a .7 R^2 for BB% is very compelling, and I would be interested in helping to come up with better formulas for both, and making a leaderboard of players who’s peripherals underperformed their, well, peripherals’ peripherals.

Happy Holidays,

Dave

]]>To get the number of swinging strikes out of the zone on the total pitches thrown some math is involved. Off the top of my head you have to start with Zone% and then do (1-Zone%) to get OZ pitches. Then you have to find the number of pitches (as a % of total pitches) that were swung at outside the zone. OZSW*(1-Zone). Now you can do (O-Contact *(OZSW*(1-ZONE))) to get how many balls were hit that were out of the zone. Then you subtract that from the how many balls were swung at outside the zone, and then you have OZSWStrikes.

If you wanted you convert everything as a # of pitches and work it out that way as well.

Essentially my goal was to get all the variables to add up to 100. For example:

(OZCON + INZCON+ OZSWSTR + IZSWSTR + CLSTR + Ball = 100%)

(OZSWSTR + IZSWSTR+ FOUL + INPLAY + CLSTR+ Ball = 100%)

(OZ + CLSTR + INZSWSTR + INZCON = 100%)

etc…

It isn’t going to add up to 100% perfectly but it should be within +/- 1%. Fangrpahs and Statcorner have slight discrepencies.

For example using AJ Burnett (I used him since it was the easiest to sort)..his 2009 numbers ended up like this…

To get OZSWSTRIKE:

O-Swing% Zone% O-Contact%

22.10% 49.90% 51.10%

OZSWING= 22.10 * (1-49.9)

OZCON= OZSWING * 51.10

OZSWSTR= OZSWING – OZCON=5.41%

OZCON INZCON OZSWSTR IZSWSTR ClStr% Ball%

5.66% 28.21% 5.41 % 3.03% 19% 39%

OZSWSTR IZSWSTR Foul% InPly% ClStr% Ball%

5.4% 3.0% 16.8% 17.1% 18.8% 38.8%

If you add the first line up it comes out to be 99.91% the second 99.94%

His K% was 21.79%

Using the formula below (which uses InPlay and Foul instead of INZCON and OZCON) you’ll get an…

eK%=(ClStr%*.9)+(Foul%*.5)+(InPly%*-.9)+(InZSwStr%*1.1)+(OZSwStr%*1.5)

ek%= 21.38%

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