Player’s View: The Best Stat to Evaluate Pitchers, Part 2

I recently posed a question to 15 players. It was the same question I asked 10 other players earlier in the season. It doesn’t have an easy answer. Given the subjectivity involved, it doesn’t even have a right answer.

What is the best stat to evaluate pitchers?

Their responses are listed below in alphabetical order.

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Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers catcher: “I’m not sure if there is just one. Not using all of the information wouldn’t be smart. You need to look at everything that has contributed to a pitcher having a good season.

“As a catcher, I could care less about all the other stats. The only thing I want is quality starts. That’s it, because you have to give your team a chance to win. One of the biggest things our pitchers, as a whole, have been able to do is put quality starts together back to back to back. We don’t really allow the opposition room to breathe.”

Scott Feldman, Baltimore Orioles righthander: “For a starting pitcher, I think it’s inning pitched. Obviously, you don’t want them to be crappy innings. Guys who throw 200 innings every year, like Adam Wainwright and Roy Halladay when he was in his prime — guys like that. If you get 30 starts but only average five innings, you’re not going to reach 200.

“Secondary to innings, I’d probably say one of those sabermetric stats. I don’t know too much about them, but they’re usually more indicative of how you’re pitching than your ERA. The other night, I walked six guys and only gave up two runs, Usually, when you do that it doesn’t work out that way. The stats that take the luck factor out of it give you a better idea of how you pitched.”

Tyler Flowers, Chicago White Sox catcher: “It’s not wins. It’s definitely not losses. Right now, my brain would go to WHIP. Limiting the number of opportunities for runs to score per inning seems like a good measuring stick for pitchers as a whole. And not just for starters, maybe even more so for relievers. If you can have a WHIP around 1.00, the chances of you giving up multiple runs are slim. If you’re a guy with a WHIP approaching 2.00, you’re obviously doubling your chances of giving up runs.

“I’d say ERA is kind of up-and-down. For the most part, if you’re a solidified starter, you’re going to have a lower ERA, although those do fluctuate every year. Sometimes that’s based on the defense behind you, and the division and league you’re in.”

J.A. Happ, Toronto Blue Jays lefthander: “I don’t look too deep into it, but I think WHIP is probably pretty important. Innings pitched are important as well. Mark Buehrle just got to 200 last night, so he’s eating up innings and helping the bullpen. He’s doing a good enough job while he’s out there to get those innings. You’re obviously doing something right if you’re pitching deep into games.

“Wins are probably the most overrated stat. Someone who has a lot of wins is usually doing a really good job, but you can also do a good job and have quite a few losses. Unfortunately, wins are something a lot of people look at.”

Casey Janssen, Toronto Blue Jays righthander: “I don’t really have an answer. ERA can be deceiving. WHIP can be deceiving. I think you have to look at a combination of things.

“I have no idea what FIP is. I’m not much for the new era of stats. I think they’re just starting to make up junk, and trying to make these things relevant. It’s not that complicated. If you’re giving up less than a hit per inning, and your walks are down, you’re going to be good. If you’re giving up more than a hit per inning and your walks are high, regardless of any other stats, you’re not going to be good. I guess that goes along with WHIP, but there are also good walks and bad walks. Situations matter, and that can skew stats a little bit.”

Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers lefthander: “ERA probably. If you give up runs… I don’t look at a lot of stats. I feel like innings pitched are important because if you’re pitching deep into the game, that’s good, but the only way you’re doing that is if you’re not giving up runs, and ERA shows that. It’s hard to look at one stat. You have to look at the whole thing.”

Brian Matusz, Baltimore Orioles lefthander: “What it comes down to is that wins are the most important thing. Ultimately, that’s what matters most. But to address what makes a pitcher better than the others, I guess I’d go with ERA. WHIP is in there. I’d say it’s between ERA and WHIP. “

Bud Norris, Baltimore Orioles righthander: “For a starting pitcher it’s inning and quality starts. Your job is to go out there and help your team win ballgames, and the only way to do that is to keep your team in the game. If you can go six, seven, eight, nine innings — whatever it might be — you want to keep it close enough for your offense to score some runs and win it. At the end of the day, it’s about wins, but as a pitcher, you can’t control wins. That’s what Roy Oswalt told me when I got to Houston: Just go out and give the team a chance to win.”

Jake Peavy, Boston Red Sox righthander: “The two stats I’d look at to assess how good somebody is would be their ERA and walks-and-hits-to-innings-pitched. Their ERA would be second to their WHIP. ERA can be directly affected by the ballpark you play in and the teams you face on a regular basis, not to mention the defense you take the field with. WHIP is the most telling tale of your craft.

“As far I’m concerned, Wins shouldn’t even be a pitcher stat. This is the problem I have with wins and losses. Tonight, people are going to look up at the scoreboard and see John Lackey has a record of 8-11. I hate that they’re going to look at that, because some fans are going to think, ‘Man, Lackey is only 8-11.’ It has zero reflection on what he’s done this year. John Lackey has had a hell of a year. What they should have up there is the numbers that matter. It would not hurt my feelings one bit if Wins disappeared. I know that’s not going to happen, but why is it such a big stat when pitchers have so little control over it?”

Hunter Pence, San Francisco Giants outfielder: “Definitely not strikeouts. If you’re getting ground ball outs, it can be just as good as a strikeout, sometimes better because you can get double plays. I think earned run average is a pretty good indicator, and WHIP, how many guys are getting on base.”

Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants catcher: “It’s either ERA or WHIP. Probably ERA. I think some guys have a knack for pitching out of trouble. Your WHIP might suffer for it, but you can still keep the other team from scoring.”

Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers righthander: “You can’t really deduce it to just one. They’re all relevant and you have to take something from everything to pull it together. You can say strikeouts are very important, and they are, but so is minimizing walks. You can definitely say strikeouts-to-walks ratio is a key component of what you do. If you can strike them out and not walk them, that’s a huge part of being successful.

“I’m also a fan of FIP. I understand what it’s trying to say. If you’re able to keep the ball in the ballpark, get strikeouts, not walk batters, and pitch deep into the game — those are the results you want to strive for over the long haul.”

Matt Thornton, Boston Red Sox lefthander: “I think it’s a combination of things. The sabermetrics that have come out over the years have been a help to evaluate players, but there is also the naked eye of baseball players and baseball personnel. I don’t think you can put your finger on any one thing that makes a player good.

“For the Cy Young award… look at Max Scherzer. Look at the whole picture. There is Max’s base runners per nine, his strikeouts, his wins. I know wins are something you can’t use as a primary consideration — look at Felix Hernandez a couple of years ago — but at the same time, 19 wins are 19 wins. He’s been a dominant pitcher all year long, and the wins are backed up by other numbers.

“You can take certain numbers and make someone look good, and you can take those same numbers and make someone else look average, or even poor. You can do whatever you want with numbers. It’s what you put stock in, whether it’s front office personnel or the media.”

Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers righthander: “I don’t think there’s any one stat. There are a bunch of them. Maybe it would be Fielding Independent Pitching. Guys with the best defense in the league are obviously going to have a lower ERA than guys with the worst defense in the league. You try to take that to a mean. That’s probably a pretty accurate representation. And while a lot of guys would probably say wins and losses are overrated, I think there’s a knack to winning games.”

Neil Wagner, Toronto Blue Jays righthander: “This is one of those questions that is difficult. If you’re talking in regard to the Cy Young, I don’t necessarily think the answer is the same every year. I know that wins are an overrated statistic in many ways, but if you’re Max Scherzer and go 20-3, that’s very hard to do. To me, it’s not a one-statistic sort of thing. I think you have to look at statistics in the context of how they happened and make a decision from there. In my mind, without context, statistics aren‘t all that valuable.”

FINAL TALLY (including the 10 responses from the earlier poll)

WHIP: Six votes (Castro, Duensing, Flowers, Happ ½, Lester ½,Matusz ½, Peavy, Pence 1/2)

ERA: Five votes (Chamberlain, Kershaw, Lester ½. Matusz ½, Pence ½, Posey, Sabathia 1/2)

Innings pitched: Four-and-a-half votes (Cain, Feldman, Happ ½, Mauer, Norris ½, Sabathia 1/2)

A Combination of Stats: Four votes (Janssen, Scherzer, Thornton, Wagner)

FIP: Two votes (Perkins, Verlander)

Quality Starts: One-and-a-half votes (Avila, Norris 1/2)

K/9: One vote (Breslow)

Z-Contact%:: One vote (Bannister)

——

Note: Thanks to Eno Sarris for procuring the responses from Matt Cain, Jason Castro, Clayton Kershaw, Hunter Pence and Buster Posey.



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David Laurila grew up in Michigan's Upper Peninsula and now writes about baseball from his home in Cambridge, Mass. He authored the Prospectus Q&A series at Baseball Prospectus from February 2006-March 2011 and is a regular contributor to several publications. His first book, Interviews from Red Sox Nation, was published by Maple Street Press in 2006. He can be followed on Twitter @DavidLaurilaQA.


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James
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James
2 years 11 months ago

I wonder if Scherzer and Verlander got together and were like “yeah, our defense does kind of suck. We have to say FIP for our sake if nothing else.”

Nathan
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Nathan
2 years 11 months ago

Came here to say just this, being a Tigers fan and all. Doug Fister and Rick Porcello might be even more vehement than Verlander and Scherzer were… :-p

gnomez
Guest
gnomez
2 years 11 months ago

I laughed out loud at Verlander’s comment about ERA.

chuckb
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chuckb
2 years 11 months ago

Their defense probably does make the pitching staff appreciate FIP more if they understand it.

I know you were trying to be funny, and it was, but there’s probably some truth in there.

Timeghoul
Member
Timeghoul
2 years 11 months ago

Verlander and Scherzer were the only two in this poll to say FIP, and coincidentally they have one of the best rotations in MLB history. Coincidence? I feel like Hunter Pence is just trolling everyone, but at least he mentioned groundballs instead of something even more ridiculous like popouts.

Anon21
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Anon21
2 years 11 months ago

Popouts aren’t a comprehensive stat (that’s why this is a hard question—unlike with hiting, there isn’t a single really good, comprehensive stat available for pitcher evaluations), but they are important. Very nearly as certain as strikeouts, and a good amount of year-to-year correlation.

TheMooseOfDeath
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TheMooseOfDeath
2 years 11 months ago

Groundballs are more democratic

jon
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jon
2 years 11 months ago

Someone said this in a previous post but it really is amazing how little these multimillion dollar athletes pay attention to the things that really matter to the people who pay and evaluate them.

Also it says Perkins voted for FIP but he’s not even listed. Did you mean Scherzer?

Anon21
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Anon21
2 years 11 months ago

No, he meant Perkins. See the note at the top of the article and the parenthetical after “FINAL TALLY.”

diderot
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diderot
2 years 11 months ago

Actually, I’m pleasantly surprised that so many of them even know what WHIP or xFIP are.

Tony
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Tony
2 years 11 months ago

I don’t see most of the responses as conflicting with what the folks doing the paying and evaluating. In most cases, it seems like a difference in verbiage – lots of acknowledging baserunners and/or runs + factoring in luck – just often not using sabermetric terms.

Relatedly, I would imagine that the stats could feel a little abstract in that when they’re pitching, they’re probably more evaluating how well they’re hitting their spots, getting the movement they want, etc. And this could make naming one a little more difficult, especially if they’re not prepared for the question.

BenRevereDoesSteroids
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BenRevereDoesSteroids
2 years 11 months ago

You assume that the stats that we see on sites like Fangraphs and B-R are the stats that teams use to evaluate players. For all we know, teams may have a totally different way of going about DIPS.

Bryrob58
Guest
2 years 11 months ago

This is so awesome. I’d love to hear from older guys, too. Would it be at all possible to track down some players from previous generations of ball?

Todd
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Todd
2 years 11 months ago

Alex Avila, Detroit Tigers catcher: “I’m not sure if there is just one. Not using all of the information wouldn’t be smart…

“As a catcher, I could care less about all the other stats. The only thing I want is quality starts. That’s it…”

Okay, I want to give Avila credit for the first part, but… what?

Chris
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Chris
2 years 11 months ago

I wonder if he’s just referring to actual starts that are of good quality, rather than the actual Quality Start stat?

Todd
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Todd
2 years 11 months ago

If so, he wouldn’t be answering the question. I think he did mean QS, though, and they just didn’t capitalize in the quote.

Judy
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Judy
2 years 11 months ago

I think he’s basically saying that it’s not his job to evaluate, he’s not really answering the question with the second part.

gnomez
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gnomez
2 years 11 months ago

Wouldn’t Feldman be under the “combination of stats” category?

rg29
Member
rg29
2 years 11 months ago

I like that WHIP, which is basically a Sabermetric-lite stat is getting some consideration. The basic idea that runners on base aren’t good seems to have gotten in quite a few pitchers’ heads.

Paul Thomas
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Paul Thomas
2 years 11 months ago

Meh. WHIP is literally a useless stat. If I recall rightly, it’s actually got a worse year-over-year correlation than ERA does. Since ERA is better than WHIP as both a predictor of future performance and a judge of past performance, why would you ever use WHIP?

It’s not a sabermetric stat. It’s a sort of half-assed compromise stat (why are hits included when we know pitchers have very little control over non-HR hits?) and the compromise doesn’t work. Kill WHIP with fire.

rg29
Member
rg29
2 years 11 months ago

Isn’t WHIP a bad version of .OBP? It is measuring Walks, Hits (which is stupid), and leaves out HBP and ROE. So it seems to be a semi-useful tool to see how a pitcher prevents baserunners?

I am fully aware that statistics like FIP and xFIP are superior but as a niche statistic WHIP doesn’t seem as bad to me as you make it.

rg29
Member
rg29
2 years 11 months ago

*.OBP allowed

J. B. Rainsberger
Guest
2 years 11 months ago

HB are just unintentional walks to anyone doing serious analysis, except, of course, unless they’re isolating HB or UBB or IBB. :)

Pirates Hurdles
Guest
Pirates Hurdles
2 years 11 months ago

Is WHIP really worse than ERA at predicting future performance? I dunno, I used WHIP a ton in the late 90’s, and early 2000’s fairly successfully to spot inflated and deflated ERA’s in fantasy planning. That was probably the 2nd “new” stat that I really invested in.

It just seems like the players are about a decade behind the stats guys. WHIP was a starting point, but FIP is much better, lets see if things progress over time.

Razor
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Razor
2 years 11 months ago

I love this series, keep them coming. My favorite comments are the ones that say, “I don’t really believe in all of that ‘sabermetric’ stuff, but what’s important is [pretty much defines WAR, FIP, etc.].”

Tom Rigid
Guest
Tom Rigid
2 years 11 months ago

“Dude, I just reach back and gas it right on by.”
-Brian Bannister, aspirational Z-Con artiste

Scott Lindholm
Member
Member
Scott Lindholm
2 years 11 months ago

Excellent post, thanks for writing it–very informative and gives me hope that if players are more receptive to better metrics, some change might actually come about.

Reply
Guest
Reply
2 years 11 months ago

These responses sound great in theory, yet these are the same players that didn’t have Kuroda & Chris Sale on their all star ballot. They still, collectively at least, value the win above all else.

Timeghoul
Member
Timeghoul
2 years 11 months ago

Also does anyone else find it funny that Craig Breslow said K/9? Craig Breslow of the 4.98 K/9?

Dayton Moore
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Dayton Moore
2 years 11 months ago

Wins, winning pct., and face.

David Eckstein
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David Eckstein
2 years 11 months ago

TWTW%. TWTW = Wins-Expected Wins/Games

Kevin Towers
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Kevin Towers
2 years 11 months ago

Grit Differential

Jeff
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Jeff
2 years 11 months ago

I think it’s pretty interesting that the two Tigers give the answers they do, given their manager. I wonder what their honest opinion of Leyland is, not that we’ll ever hear it.

Andrew
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Andrew
2 years 11 months ago

Love Feldman’s response on ERA/walking 6 guys

mike wants wins
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mike wants wins
2 years 11 months ago

Great series. Keep it coming. I think I’d say Scherzer also voted FIP….I also love that wins was not a winner really at all. If only “the writers and talking heads” (as if they are one unified group) were this thoughtful….

Ruki Motomiya
Guest
Ruki Motomiya
2 years 11 months ago

What I find most interesting is how many people valued innings pitched. Not that it is something not to value, it just isn’t the first thing to jump out at you…but it is kind of intuitive. Even if you pitched well, only pitching 10 games or 100 innings doesn’t mean much unless your replacement is also pretty good.

Bip
Member
Member
Bip
2 years 11 months ago

Players like to play and hate getting pulled. I wonder if the fact that starters basically never want to get pulled factors into how many say innings.

But another thing I noticed is while ERA can vary, the guys we know are good generally always throw a lot of innings. Either because they have enough good pitches, or good enough command, or they just have some additional composure, but they rarely let innings get out of hand. They can throw strikes if they need to and even if they make mistakes, they are good enough at executing their strategy that they keep getting outs, thereby accumulating a lot of innings.

So while innings pitched are influenced by ERA, it also speaks to a certain ability to keep getting outs and never letting games get out of hand.

Antonio Bananas
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Antonio Bananas
2 years 11 months ago

A lot of IP. Are there any studies about how a pitcher who goes deeper into games can make the bullpen better? Less stressful innings, less innings by a pen, etc seems logical. So 2 guys with identical stats but one with 240 IP and one with 200 might be a lot bigger difference other than the cumulative side-by-side. Also the following day if a bullpen is rests, the manager may not feel so hesitant to yank the next day’s starter early.

J. B. Rainsberger
Guest
2 years 11 months ago

Janssen came the closest to saying WPA. Another reason to be Jays fan.

Drew
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Drew
2 years 11 months ago

How does Pence make it through life?

Nivra
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Nivra
2 years 11 months ago

It’s his 7th reincarnation as a human being. He’s learned quite a bit from his prior stints and past lives. All in the name of gathering data about human behavior and reporting back to the Mother Hivemind, of course.

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