Poll: How Does Ervin Santana’s No Hitter Stack Up?

Congratulations to Ervin Santana for completing the 273rd no-hitter in major league history and the third no-hitter of the 2011 season!

While every no hitter is a great accomplishment and a rare feat, not all no-hitters are created equal. Tangotiger recently created four different game scores based on various criteria, for the different ways you might perceive a particular start.

  1. GS-Runs Allowed = – 7 * IP – 10 * R + 40
  2. GS-K & BB = – 3 * (SO-BB) + 40
  3. GS-FIP = -13 * HR -3 * BB + 2 * SO + 3 * IP + 33
  4. GS-Linear Weights = -8 * HR -5 * H -3 * BB + 9 * IP -2
  5. GS-Combo = 40 + 4.5 * IP + SO – H – 2 * BB – 2 * R – 5 * HR

Of the three no-hitters this season, here’s how they stack up:

Game Score Type      RA   K&BB   FIP  LWTS  Combo    BJ
Ervin Santana        93     67    77    76     87    94
Justin Verlander    103     49    65    76     83    90
Francisco Liriano   103     28    46    61     71    83

As you can see, the only area where Ervin Santana’s no-hitter doesn’t show up as the most dominant of the season is in the runs allowed category. Perhaps that is enough in your mind to discount it since it did come on a wild pitch.

Which no hitter do you believe to be the most dominant so far this season?



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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.


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juan pierre's mustache
Guest
juan pierre's mustache
4 years 10 months ago

ok, who voted for liriano. fess up

Person
Guest
Person
4 years 10 months ago

I’d like to see a version of this poll that includes a hypothetical 15-K perfect game by Sabathia yesterday. Given the competition he faced, I suspect that hypothetical might not win unanimously.

Person
Guest
Person
4 years 10 months ago

Oh, and I still like James’ original game score better than any of Tango’s alternatives…

tangotiger
Guest
tangotiger
4 years 10 months ago

Two reasons I like mine:

1. I start at 40, not 50.

2. I include HR and Bill doesn’t

The rest of the differences is in the weighting of H, R, BB, SO, which, as I said, each reader can set to his own heart’s content by weighting the 4 versions of Game Score.

You are basically saying you are preferring Bill’s version to your own.

Jordan
Guest
Jordan
4 years 10 months ago

I get that the fact that the run scored on a wild pitch makes it sort of Santana’s fault, but he wouldn’t have had a runner on if it weren’t for that error. A no-no with an error is more impressive to me – he effectively got 28 outs, while allowing no hits and 1 BB. No one devalues no-no’s because of wild pitches that don’t result in runs scored, so I don’t see why Santana’s should be devalued because his fielders let him down.

phoenix2042
Guest
phoenix2042
4 years 10 months ago

well i recall a perfecto with 28 outs last year that didnt even count…

filihok
Guest
4 years 10 months ago

Batted Ball FIP

Liriano: 4.59
Verlander: 1.42
Santana: 0.29

Sitting Curveball
Member
4 years 10 months ago

My poor Indians… 5 errors is worse to me than the no-hitter. We’ve been dominated on the offensive end so often, a no-hitter was bound to happen since luck is all that separates a no-hitter from a 1, 2, or 3 hitter. But 5 errors?

senorpogo
Guest
senorpogo
4 years 10 months ago

No hits, five errors, one passed ball.

Has a squad (sans pitcher) ever had a worse day?

Doogolas33
Guest
Doogolas33
4 years 10 months ago

Kerry Wood’s 20K game was better. :P

In all seriousness, probably Santana. But I think it’s pretty close with Verlander.

littlesatan
Guest
littlesatan
4 years 10 months ago

OK LADIES…LETS GET THIS RIGHT ON GHE FIRST TRY AND IT RAINBOW SHERBERT AT THE RITE-AID!!!!!…..YEAH!!!!….OKAY HERE WE GO, REPEAT AFTER ME: ANGELS “ANGELS”….SANTANA “SANTANA” …BEST NO-HITTER SINCE 1990 “BEST NO-HITTER SINCE 1990” . WHEW YOU DID IT!! “YEAH”
THATS IT! ITS DONE AN OVER WITH. I AM RIGHT!!

Tony Reagins
Guest
Tony Reagins
4 years 10 months ago

OMFG Rainbow Sherbert!? Can I trade Irwin no hitter guy for another scoop? Its a deal as long as the scoop makes 26 million

Jeff
Guest
Jeff
4 years 10 months ago

Something that wasn’t visible in the stats: Verlander missed a perfect game by about an inch. The umpire appeared to be right in calling that 3-2 pitch a ball, but it was ridiculously close (and definitely a lot better than a pitch in a similar situation in Halladay’s perfect game that was ruled a strike). Can anyone who was watching the game describe if Santana’s walk was something like that?

I still voted for Santana for the strikeouts, but I’m just throwing that out there.

chongo
Guest
chongo
4 years 10 months ago

I would take 76 pitch complete game (Maddux) over a sloppy no-hitter any day. What value are we looking for? Mastery? Dominance?

Bryan
Guest
4 years 10 months ago
Randy
Guest
Randy
4 years 10 months ago

There is too much luck involved in no-hitters anyway. The wild pitch was a direct action by Santana, which gave the nod to Verlander. If it was just an error by the defense, I might vote for Santana. It was an impressive start even if not a no-hitter. Also, Verlander’s no-hitter wasn’t even his own best start of the season.

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