Projected Hits Above/Below Average in 2012

ESPN’s Christina Kahrl wrote a fascinating piece over at the SweetSpot that focused on the rise of the strikeout during the past few decades. In her article, she notes that some teams can get away with lesser defensive players if their pitching staffs have a higher strikeout rate. The logic is that if a team’s pitching staff allows fewer balls in play due to striking out more batters, fewer runners will reach base despite the team’s higher batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

It’s a great point. I wanted to get a more concrete sense of just how much strikeout rates and team defense/park might impact hits allowed in 2012. To do this, I took the ZiPS projections for all pitchers who are currently on the active roster of major-league clubs. The projections were then aggregated by team. Since the active rosters vary at this point, I calculated rates such as projected hits per inning, strikeouts per inning, etc. I then conducted two comparisons: the number of hits allowed relative to league average when BABIP is held constant; and the number of hits allowed, relative to league average, when the number of balls in play per inning is constant. The former gives us a sense of how strikeout rates impact hits; the latter tells us how defense/park impacts hits*. All calculations of hits saved/allowed used an innings pitched constant of 1450 for the year.

Here are the results:

Team Hits Relative to League Average Due to Defense/Park Hits Relative to League Average: Per 9 IP
Rays -49 -0.30
Dodgers -35 -0.22
Reds -29 -0.18
Padres -27 -0.17
Diamondbacks -26 -0.16
Giants -22 -0.14
Brewers -22 -0.14
Red Sox -21 -0.13
Phillies -16 -0.10
Braves -15 -0.09
Rangers -8 -0.05
Cardinals -7 -0.04
Cubs -4 -0.02
Nationals -1 -0.01
Angels 2 0.01
Yankees 3 0.02
Rockies 4 0.02
Mariners 5 0.03
Marlins 6 0.04
Blue Jays 6 0.04
Mets 11 0.07
Athletics 12 0.07
Tigers 12 0.07
Royals 16 0.10
Astros 19 0.12
Indians 22 0.14
White Sox 25 0.16
Pirates 31 0.19
Orioles 37 0.23
Twins 49 0.30

Not surprisingly, the Rays are projected to save the most hits due to their defensive this year. Given their players’ defensive skills, their use of defensive strategy (e.g. shifts), and their park, the Rays project to save 49 hits relative to the league average in 2012. The Dodgers, Reds, Padres and Diamondbacks round out the top five. Seeing the Reds here is interesting. Cincinnati plays in the most hitter-friendly park, relative to the other top-five teams. That bodes well for their chances at making a run in the NL Central.

Team Hits Relative to League Average Due to K-Rate Hits Relative to League Average: Per 9 IP
Brewers -78 -0.48
Braves -62 -0.38
Dodgers -58 -0.36
Giants -46 -0.29
Phillies -44 -0.27
Rays -38 -0.24
Reds -33 -0.20
Padres -32 -0.20
Red Sox -26 -0.16
Marlins -19 -0.12
Rangers -17 -0.11
Yankees -13 -0.08
Nationals -8 -0.05
White Sox -1 -0.01
Diamondbacks 1 0.01
Cubs 5 0.03
Angels 6 0.04
Astros 9 0.06
Tigers 10 0.06
Athletics 11 0.07
Blue Jays 15 0.09
Cardinals 21 0.13
Royals 24 0.15
Rockies 25 0.16
Mets 28 0.17
Mariners 37 0.23
Pirates 40 0.25
Indians 55 0.34
Orioles 88 0.55
Twins 124 0.77

In terms of hits saved due to strikeouts, the Brewers project to save 78 hits. The Braves, Dodgers, Giants and Phillies fill out the top five in this category. Not a whole lot of surprises here, given the power arms who populate those teams’ staffs. The Brewers will need to keep every run off the board they can to compensate for the likely decline in their run scoring in 2012.

When you combine each team’s projected strikeout rate with their BABIPs, you get the combined projected hits saved/allowed relative to league average for 2012:

Team Hits Relative to League Average Due to Defense/Park Hits Relative to League Average Due to K-Rate Total Hits Relative to League Average Total Hits Relative to League Average: Per 9 IP
Brewers -22 -78 -99 -0.61
Dodgers -35 -58 -93 -0.58
Rays -49 -38 -87 -0.54
Braves -15 -62 -77 -0.48
Giants -22 -46 -68 -0.42
Reds -29 -33 -62 -0.38
Phillies -16 -44 -60 -0.37
Padres -27 -32 -59 -0.37
Red Sox -21 -26 -48 -0.30
Rangers -8 -17 -25 -0.16
Diamondbacks -26 1 -25 -0.16
Marlins 6 -19 -13 -0.08
Nationals -1 -8 -10 -0.06
Yankees 3 -13 -9 -0.06
Cubs -4 5 1 0.01
Angels 2 6 7 0.04
Cardinals -7 21 14 0.09
Blue Jays 6 15 21 0.13
Tigers 12 10 22 0.14
Athletics 12 11 23 0.14
White Sox 25 -1 24 0.15
Rockies 4 25 28 0.17
Astros 19 9 29 0.18
Mets 11 28 39 0.24
Royals 16 24 39 0.24
Mariners 5 37 43 0.27
Pirates 31 40 71 0.44
Indians 22 55 77 0.48
Orioles 37 88 125 0.78
Twins 49 124 173 1.07

The Brewers project to allow almost 100 fewer hits, which is based largely on their pitchers’ ability to miss bats. Combine that with a relatively improved defense (bye-bye Yuniesky Betancourt, hello Alex Gonzalez), and Milawuakee’s run prevention looks to be pretty good in 2012. The Brewers’ competitors in the NL Central, the Reds, also project very favorably here, with 62 fewer hits allowed. The Reds did work on improving both their starting rotation and their bullpen. Of course, the loss of Ryan Madson won’t help, but overall the data show that they should certainly see an improvement over their runs allowed from last year.

On the negative side, we find teams like the Royals and Blue Jays — who many project as breakout teams. Both clubs have done a great job building young, talented teams with above-average offenses. The question for both is their pitching and defense. The projections here show why it’s still hard to imagine either surprising in 2012. The offense should be there, but both clubs project to be below-average when it comes to allowing hits. Of course, in the case of the Blue Jays, we’re looking at roughly 21 hits over the course of the season (or roughly one every week), so this isn’t crippling from a run prevention standpoint. But, still, we’re talking about a club that has to compete against the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays just for the chance at one of the play-in playoff spots, so every little bit counts.

—————-

*Of course, strikeout rate and BABIP are not completely independent. Thanks to Mike Fast’s innovative work, we have some sense that pitchers with nastier stuff tend to suppress opponents BABIP, and those same pitchers also tend to strikeout more batters. In fact, the correlation between projected team BABIP and strikeout rate for 2012 is -.75 .




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Bill works as a consultant by day. In his free time, he writes for The Hardball Times, speaks about baseball research and analytics, consults for a Major League Baseball team and appears on MLB Network's Clubhouse Confidential. Along with Jeff Zimmerman, he won the 2013 SABR Analytics Research Award for Contemporary Analysis. Follow him on Tumblr or Twitter @BillPetti.


13 Responses to “Projected Hits Above/Below Average in 2012”

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  1. noseeum says:

    This is awesome! Nice work.

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  2. JDanger says:

    Bill Petti, muh man.

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  3. Andrew says:

    “The logic is that if a team’s pitching staff allows fewer balls in play due to striking out more batters, fewer runners will reach base despite the team’s higher batting average on balls in play (BABIP).”

    This is a newsflash? That run prevention is one part pitching and one part defense? Fascinating indeed…

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  4. jon says:

    I know the Twins defense is poor but they have a great pitchers park. Is their defense that incredibly bad that they blow everyone else out of the water for worst park/defense factor here so decisively?

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    • bill says:

      BABIP scales with K-rates. thats why contact guys like Pavano and Blackburn have career BABIPs in the .310 range. I believe that that, more than the Twins defense or target field is the reason for the high expected BABIP-against displayed here. It is a little misleading the way its displayed here, or I’m just misinterpreting it.

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      • Bill Petti says:

        K rates do account for more of the hits above average allowed for the twins than BABIP against. The final chart shows the two side by side, then sums them to get the total 173 hits allowed above average.

        As far as defense goes, it is defense plus park plus possible impact of pitcher attributes, plus luck. Like I said, there isn’t a clean break between K rates and BABIP, but it isn’t a 1:1 relationship, either.

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  5. Atari says:

    Great job Bill. I love to read articles like these. Keep up the good work!

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  6. SC2GG says:

    I was expecting to see teams BABIP-against (reverse BABIP?), compared to their strikeout rates. Wouldn’t that show you something too?

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  7. Wobatus says:

    Now I don’t feel quite so silly picking the brewers and Giants to win their divisions.

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  8. Brian says:

    Could some of the defense/park numbers also hinge on the types of pitchers the team has? GB pitchers tend to have higher BABIPs than FB pitchers. I think the Twins to some degree, but the Indians for sure have more GB pitchers than most teams, while the Rays were 2nd to last in GB ratio last year behind the D-Backs, who also rank fairly well here.

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  9. Mike says:

    It makes sense that all the NL teams would fair better in the runs saved by k since NL pitchers face the opposing teams pitches instead of DHs. So doesn’t it make sense to break the teams into NL and AL for the purposes of comparing relative to league average? ie its not fair to compare an AL team to and NL team.

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