Projecting Chapman

There are a lot of factors in play that make Aroldis Chapman one of the most exciting subplots of the 2010 season. There’s the 101 mph fastball. There’s Dusty Baker. There’s the Cuba-to-America transition. No matter what angle you come from, there’s intrigue to be had. And given the perfect storm of Reds availability at this moment — featured today at #20 in our organizational rankings, and currently on MLB Network (with Aroldis on the mound today) — I wanted to check into where the readership stands on Chapman’s rookie season.

Over at Tango’s blog, there has been a fascinating discussion on Stephen Strasburg, and the very optimistic 2.86 ERA the Oliver projection system at Hardball Times spit out (ground we covered a bit here when I forecasted a 3.95 FIP). This followed with a poll that Tango asked, “the chance Strasburg will post an ERA BELOW 2.50 = the chance he will post an ERA ABOVE…” So, in addition to asking what kind of innings totals we are expecting from Chapman, and what kind of component FIP statistics you project, I’m going to duplicate Tango’s question as well.

If you’d like to participate, just click on the survey below. We’ll let it stay live for the rest of the week, and I’ll return after his next appearance to report the findings, and shed some light on my votes (and impressions on his outings this spring). Now I turn it over to you.

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