Prospect Packages for Justin Upton

In this week’s edition of “As the Upton Waits”, the Mets and Braves inquire, while the Rangers continue to lurk in the periphery.

Maybe the Texas Rangers are employing a brilliant strategy of waiting out the Arizona Diamondbacks before swooping in and acquiring 25-year old Justin Upton. Or, maybe the Rangers lucked out when Upton rejected a trade to the Mariners for Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin and a pair of relievers. Regardless, the Rangers still find themselves in the best position to land the young right-fielder.

With the Mets, Rangers and Braves having teams in the South Atlantic League, I’ve had the opportunity to see most of their highly regarded prospects. Additionally, I’ve seen the two key pieces the Mariners were willing to deal.

Beyond already knowing what the Diamondbacks would have accepted from the Mariners, assessing organizational need and risk of failure is also important. For example, the Mets’ Wilmer Flores and the Mariners’ Nick Franklin both might be top-80 prospects on paper, but Franklin would have afforded the Diamondbacks both a cost-controlled second baseman to replace pending free agent Aaron Hill and a high floor talent.

Yes, Flores is penciled into the lineup at second base, but it would take a leap of faith to project him there. He’s undoubtedly a talented hitter, but it’s difficult to mentally add 20-speed and low walk totals resulting in a future star fueled by BABIP.

Additionally, motivation is a key factor in trades. An organization is unlikely to create a gaping hole at the big league level to fill another hole.

Living in Atlanta, I commend the Braves for testing the waters. However, I don’t perceive them as having the players to make a move unless they were willing to grow the deal and include Andrelton Simmons. For the Braves, this is likely a non-starter. However, an offer including Simmons, Julio Teheran or Randall Delgado, Sean Gilmartin or J.R. Graham and Christian Bethancourt or Edward Salcedo for Justin Upton and Didi Gregorius would work for both sides.

From Arizona’s perspective, they add starting pitching depth, an upgrade at shortstop and catching or third-base depth to the organization. This makes sense considering the Rangers already tried to acquire Simmons to flip to Arizona. Plus, one could argue the addition of two starting pitchers is more valuable than a better starting pitching prospect and two relievers. The catch might be the position prospect, but scouts I’ve spoken to are more bullish on Salcedo and Bethancourt than the prospect public.

For the Braves, they receive Upton (obviously) and a young shortstop to “replace” Simmons.

Excluding Zack Wheeler in any proposed Mets deal is a non-starter. With D’Arnaud being their future at catcher and the Diamondbacks having a solid catcher signed through 2017, he’s a poor fit.. Include Wheeler and maybe the other prospects fall into place. Would a package of Wheeler, Wilmer Flores, Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia work in exchange for Upton? It’s close, but contacts I’ve spoken to aren’t as excited about Flores as prospect followers are. Walker is also a better pitching prospect than Wheeler. If the Mets were willing to sweeten the pot with Domingo Tapia — a teenager with a fastball approaching triple digits — it might work.

Wheeler would be an excellent “get” for the Diamondbacks, but the other pieces are sexier on paper. Flores in the National League is a stretch, given his limited athleticism. Mejia and Familia have explosive fastballs but inconsistent track records. Tapia is a wild card whom one scout referred to as having “big (add expletive here).” However, his low arm slot forces a reliever projection at the moment.

The Mets add Upton, a potential cornerstone on a team whose best outfield prospect played in Brooklyn last year (Brandon Nimmo). Additionally, their projected outfield of Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Mike Baxter, Collin Cowgill and Andrew Brown platoon is built to make an impact — in Las Vegas. Does dealing five cost-controlled pieces strip the Mets of organizational depth? Yes, but the major league team is already full of cost-controlled players who have already surfaced.

This leaves the Texas Rangers, a team with the pieces to deal for Upton. Even without Jurickson Profar or Elvis Andrus, a package of Mike Olt, Martin Perez, Luis Sardinas and Roman Mendez would be a more competitive package than either the Mets or the Braves can offer. Olt and Perez are functional, if not quality major leaguers this season. Sardinas would compete with Gregorius for the title of best shortstop in the organization. As for Mendez, his inclusion as the fourth piece is based off of his 95-plus mph fastball having bullpen or rotation possibilities.

On paper, nothing is more attractive to a prospect follower than seeing a legitimate prospect at every organizational level. With Andrus, Profar, Leury Garcia and Sardinas, only the Boston Red Sox are able compete in terms of shortstop depth

But players like Garcia and Sardinas eventually become more valuable to other organizations than their own due to need. The Rangers are a lesser team today than when they fell short in 2011 and 2012. One can also argue every team in the American League West is stronger than at the end of 2012. A major move is needed and any conceivable Mike Stanton deal would have to include Profar.

One team to keep an eye on is the Red Sox. Maybe Xander Bogaerts is a non-starter during their pseudo-rebuild, but they have the pieces, and the outfield hole, to make it happen.

With about a month until pitchers and catchers report, time is slipping away from the Diamondbacks. With a team built to compete in the National League West, the distraction of having a discontented Upton might do more harm than good — even if the former franchise cornerstone produces at a high level.

Texas will compete with its current roster. But adding Upton would provide a solid answer for how to replace Josh Hamilton. The Rangers are playing coy, but it makes sense for them to strike before a another team swoops in and acquires the outfielder.



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Mike Newman is the Owner/Managing Editor ofROTOscouting, a subscription site focused on baseball scouting, baseball prospects and fantasy baseball. Follow me onTwitter. Likeus on Facebook.Subscribeto my YouTube Channel.


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Tristan
Guest
3 years 5 months ago

Why does not one recognize that the Diamondbacks already have Chris Owings (MOB) up the middle? They already have their 2B of the future who is a year or two away from the bigs as is. If anything a third base prospect would be ideal since there are questions about Davidson’s ability to stick there in the future.

David B
Guest
David B
3 years 5 months ago

I don;t think Chris Oweings is a lock. The kid strikes out an awful lot and doesn’t show signs of mastering the strike zone. He also really struggled when promoted to AA last year. Now he’s only 21 and also struggled the previous year when promoted to high A before rebounding in the first half of 2012, so maybe he’ll turn things around. But I’d much rather have Nick Franklin going forward.

Tristan
Guest
3 years 5 months ago

I agree, but we also need to realize that Owings just turned 21 in August. It only took him 1.5 seasons at high A to figure things out and dramatically turn things around (.246 BA to .324). His power has also been increasing each year/level. Where you see more strike outs, I see more aggressiveness…which isn’t always a bad thing. He is young, but 2013 is going to be make or break.

RKKP
Guest
RKKP
3 years 5 months ago

Tristan, you’re commenting on a Fangraphs article and quoting batting average? Really?

Tristan
Guest
3 years 5 months ago

It was either that, or list Owings’ insanely high BABIP or his awful ISO in Mobile. Had to find something to help my point…wasn’t much to go on.

Alex
Guest
Alex
3 years 5 months ago

“Where you see more strikeouts, I see more aggressiveness”

Wow. What we have here is a blind homer

chuckb
Guest
chuckb
3 years 5 months ago

By “one” do you mean the author or do you mean the D-backs, who already made the Upton trade and would have received Nick Franklin in return? The author based his post on the trade that had already been agreed upon. Besides, even if the D-backs are as sanguine on Owings as you seem to be, depth is a good thing. Sometimes prospects don’t make it.

Scott
Guest
Scott
3 years 5 months ago

Why would the Braves trade Andrelton Simmons for Upton when he has more value considering cost, position scarcity, etc. AND THEN include three more top-100 caliber prospects? Is this a guest post from Kevin Towers or something?

YanksFanInBeantown
Member
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 5 months ago

The question they have to ask is if there is a greater difference in value between Upton and their current OF than between Simmons and Gregorius.

Wil
Guest
Wil
3 years 5 months ago

If Prado plays LF? Probably not any difference. If Prado plays 3rd? It would potentially be a large difference in value.

Franklin
Guest
3 years 5 months ago

actually, the question you have to ask is whether, given budget constraints, the difference in contracts and the difference in value is greater. Upton is slightly underpaid, but not drastically. Simmons will make roughly 35 Million less than Upton over the life of Upton’s contract.

Then you’re throwing in a top 15 prospect, a top 50 prospect and a top 100 prospect?! lolwut

This is so crazy above the package from the Blue Jays that Towers accepted it’s just laughable. If anything Towers’ bargaining position has gotten WEAKER since then, not stronger.

kp
Guest
kp
3 years 5 months ago

If the price for Upton is definitely in this range, you’d have to believe that the Braves would scrap this idea and sign Bourn instead. Bourn now projects to be only marginally (I’m thinking $5-10M) more expensive over the next three years than Upton.

Then the comparisons would be:
Upton, Gregorius, $5M vs
Bourn, Simmons, Teheran, Graham, Bethancourt

Even projecting conservative WAR totals for Bourn and Simmons, you’d have to think that the Braves would prefer the second option.

jdbolick
Member
Member
3 years 5 months ago

Simmons had an unexpectedly solid season offensively, but he’s not really that far above replacement level in the grand scheme of things. Upton is a potential difference-maker.

Franklin
Guest
3 years 5 months ago

you do realize that SImmons in an 80 glove SS with an 80 arm, right? on defense alone he’s far above replacement level. Sure, he overperformed on offense last year, but that caused him to be a 2.2 win player in 50 games. Even if he plays at half the level he did last year, he’s a 3.5 win player.

Dan
Guest
Dan
3 years 5 months ago

Simmons is a 2-win player if his offense is 20% below league average. He is virtually a lock to be 2 wins above replacement or better. Upton is a “potential” difference maker–I want more certainty than that if I am going to give up a guy who is a lock to be league average for the league minimum for the next 3 years. And you want me to throw in 3 high ceiling prospects too? No thanks.

Brain of G
Member
Brain of G
3 years 5 months ago

Exactly. I gave up on this article after reading that list of prospects the writer (aka Towers) would expect the Braves to have to give up. If that’s what Arizona expects in return, including the Braves as a possible suitor is a unnecessary.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

From what I heard, the Braves were pretty much unwilling to do Simmons and filler for Upton. If they included Simmons in the deal, they were insisting on getting Corbin back as well (though obviously there would be other pieces going to DBacks way in addition to Simmons). The Braves might consider something like Upton and Gregorius for Simmons, Gilmartin or Graham, and Salcedo, but I don’t think they’d include Teheran or Delgado in such a deal considering 1 of those guys will be their #5 SP and the other will be the first option to step in if a SP goes down.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
3 years 5 months ago

Yes, this is way too much. I’d say Upton and Gigi for Simmons and either Delgado OR two of the other four guys mentioned other than Teheren.

Simmons is likely to produce more WAR over 6 years than Upton will over 3, and cost a lot less over that time. The inclusion of Gigi heavily mitigates that assuming this guy really is ready to play in the majors, but doesn’t do enough to include Teheren in the deal.

billyshears
Guest
billyshears
3 years 5 months ago

I think these packages are heavy. The fact that the Diamondbacks pushed the Mariners’ deal even though Upton had a NTC to the Mariners should tell you that they had an offer on the table that was significantly above market (and everybody in baseball seemed to think that would be a great haul for the Diamondbacks). Maybe an Upton deal doesn’t happen, but if it does, I think it will be at a discount of around 20% to the reported Mariners’ deal.

chuckb
Guest
chuckb
3 years 5 months ago

It’s pretty clear that Towers and his colleagues have very different views on Upton’s value.

earlybird31
Member
earlybird31
3 years 5 months ago

The D-Backs are in a tough position. They have a malcontent on their hands that is coming off a down year, but has a ton of talent. I think they went after the Mariners deal in attempt to drive up his value. The best move would be to hold off until next year, but the team chemistry issue may come into play. I agree with Mike. The Rangers are most likely waiting in the back ground until Towers is forced to accept a discounted deal.

E-Dub
Guest
E-Dub
3 years 5 months ago

“They have a malcontent on their hands”

A malcontent greatly of their own creation and whose value they drove down by stunningly clueless handling of the situation in the media. His handling of the situation has been absurd for a person in his position.

BubbaNoTrubba
Guest
BubbaNoTrubba
3 years 5 months ago

Towers will most likely have to settle for Martin Perez, Sardinas and Mendez.

Which is insane, considering the deal he was offered from the Mariners.

Forrest Gumption
Member
Forrest Gumption
3 years 5 months ago

He’s not going to settle on that, he doesn’t have to trade him if he doesn’t like the package. If Andrus or Profar aren’t in the deal, the Rangers aren’t getting Upton. Its simple as that.

It’s looking more and more like the Braves are going to pony up and get him with something like the package mentioned above.

Antonio bananas
Guest
Antonio bananas
3 years 5 months ago

Who plays ss for the braves then?

elijah
Guest
elijah
3 years 5 months ago

The great Cliff Pennington himself. Duh.

elijah
Guest
elijah
3 years 5 months ago

Wait. Scratch that. I read that as who plays ss for the DBacks. Gotta go to sleep asap.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

The Braves were unwilling to do Simmons and filler for Upton. Why would they be willing to pay significantly more than that now considering where things stand?

Ross
Guest
Ross
3 years 5 months ago

If Towers ended up settling for that deal, leaving Olt available for a Price/Stanton (or less but all-star caliber player) then JD’s Jedi abilities are beyond comparison.

GovClintonTyree
Guest
GovClintonTyree
3 years 5 months ago

I can promise you the Braves aren’t going to give up anything like that package. That would be absurd. This is Upton, not Pujols. At most, they might do an attractive package on the order of Teheran, Ahmed, Bethancourt and Graham, or add Eric O’Flaherty in as a deluxe ML left handed reliever. If Towers is looking for anything what you proposed, the Braves won’t be interested. They won’t trade Simmons at all. And shouldn’t.

Oasis
Guest
Oasis
3 years 5 months ago

What a load of crap. You braves fans are pathetic. I wouldn’t trade a bag of used tampons for that collection of garbage. Quite frankly, every trade proposal here is freaking insane. This is a player who’s floor is a 2 1/2 WAR player and has a ceiling of about 8-9 for the next half dozen years.

I wish the Fangraphs’ writers would just stop it with these bullshit trade threads. All they do is get all the rangers/braves/mets/sawx/cubs fans into a lather overvaluing their prospects and deluding themselves that a pantload of crappy prospects, most of whom will never amount to jack squat in the majors is worth trading a star and potential superstar …

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

No one cares what Upton’s ceiling is for the next 6 years if they only get him for the next 3. And FWIW, Simmons has a similar floor (he’s a ~2.5 WAR player if you regress his D all the way back to +12.5 runs and his wRC+ to 80), a ceiling that is maybe 2-3 wins behind Upton’s, he’s earning 35 MM less over the next, and is under team control for another 3 years after that.

JT Grace
Guest
JT Grace
3 years 5 months ago

Totally agree. Unlike this article, your proposal is very reasonable. There is no way the Braves give up Simmons plus half of the farm system for Justin Upton.

Steven
Guest
Steven
3 years 5 months ago

What would The Red Sox package (excluding Xander) look like, Mike?

Thanks

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

If they wanted to get him, it would be tough to exclude Xander. Maybe if they were willing to package Middlebrooks with the DBacks choice of any 2-3 guys in the farm system other than Xander they could get something done.

Morgan
Guest
Morgan
3 years 5 months ago

If the d’backs can’t get the value they want from trading Upton then maybe they maximize by trading someone else? Adam Eaton for Wilmer Flores would give both more playing opportunities, not sure which team gets the most benefit.

Forrest Gumption
Member
Forrest Gumption
3 years 5 months ago

I’m still surprised they aren’t committing to Parra as a full time CF, if anyone deserves 600 PA’s next year, it’s that guy.

Mike
Guest
Mike
3 years 5 months ago

Do the Yankees have the pieces to make it work, without a three team deal with Granderson involved? Would a package of Banuelos, Sanchez and one of Austin, Williams, Heathcott be enough to entice the Dbacks. The Yanks have a need for an OF, have a need for a cost controlled young player (I think their avg age this year is 50!), and have a need for a RH bat in the lineup. It just seems to make too much sense and seems to be a deal that 4 years ago would have already been made.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

The Yanks need to move Granderson to open up room under the luxury tax threshold for Upton.

YanksFanInBeantown
Member
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 5 months ago

No, they don’t.

Antonio bananas
Guest
Antonio bananas
3 years 5 months ago

The braves trading Simmons for Upton would be like trading your car for gas money. Simmons is awesome and could be a 3-4 WAR guy (1.5-2 in defense). The braves will trade from what’s left of their pitching depth and use their reputation to get them to overvalue one of their raw prospects to get the deal if they do.

YanksFanInBeantown
Member
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 5 months ago

Simmons could be a 3-4 WAR guy?! That’s great! He’s about as good as Upton playing through a labrum injury and even better than Upton playing through a thumb injury that prevents him from gripping a bat!

What’s that? Upton has already shown, twice, that when he’s healthy Simmons can’t carry his jockstrap? And Simmons is never going to sniff Upton’s production at age 23?

You’re right, an Upton for Simmons trade would be trading a car for gas money, that’s why the Braves would have to throw in a couple of top prospects to make it worth it for the D-Backs.

braveslifer
Guest
braveslifer
3 years 5 months ago

Spoken from a fan of a large market team. Mid-market teams can’t trade 6 years of team control producing 3-4 WAR, for a guy that is owed $35M over the next 3 years and likely to produce 5-6WAR, and then also give up their top two pitching prospects. I know it is difficult to understand but when mid-market teams make mistakes payroll/personnel wise there isn’t an extra $100M to draw from.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

Saying Simmons could be a 3-4 WAR guy is selling him short. He’s virtually assured of being that good just based on his glove. I also wouldn’t be that surprised to see Simmons top 6 WAR in the next 6 years. Hell, he was playing above a 6 WAR per 150 game pace last year while posting a wRC+ just above league average.

YanksFanInBeantown
Member
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 5 months ago

braveslifer, they can when they are receiving a 2-4 WAR shortstop back as well. If they think Upton can put them over the top, they’d be stupid not to trade Simmons, Teheran and Graham for him. It’s called the “marginal value of a win” and for the Braves, who got screwed over last year under the new Wild Card system, it’s quite high.

Also, I’m not going to tell you where you can shove your condescending tone, because that would be rude.

Nitram, I don’t think you want to use best case scenarios as an argument for Simmons over Upton. If I concede that Simmons is Brendan Ryan with the glove, which I don’t, and assume that he will be Erick Aybar with the bat, which I don’t, then he’s a 5-6 win player, maximum. Jose Reyes without the steals is his absolute ceiling.

Justin Upton’s upside, meanwhile, is Ryan Braun. Would you rather have Jose Reyes without the steals, or Ryan Braun?

YanksFanInBeantown
Member
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 5 months ago

Upton for Simmons would be a bad trade, but if the Braves get Gregorius as well it’s more than fair. Especially considering that it would move Prado from LF to 3B.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

No one has said Upton and Gregorius for Simmons would be a bad deal. The issue is the other 3 pieces Mike is talking about the Braves dealing in addition to Simmons. And Reyes can’t hold Simmons jock as a defender. In 50 games last year, Simmons posted a more DRS than Reyes ever has in his career. By UZR, he saved almost as many runs in 50 games as Reyes did in his best season (and saved 4 runs more than Reyes in his 2nd best season). The difference between Reyes and Simmons defensively is larger than the difference between Reyes and Simmons on the basepaths.

And why in the world would you choose Aybar as a comp for Simmons’ offensive ceiling? Aybar didn’t show an elite ability to avoid K’s coming up like Simmons did, he walked a decent amount less, and he wasn’t as projectable since he’s 4 inches shorter and debuted in the majors with over twice as many MiLB PAs.

YanksFanInBeantown
Member
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 5 months ago

Upton and Gregorius for Simmons is completely lopsided, though, because Upton is just straight up better than Simmons, the Braves just don’t have a replacement at SS. It would have to be Teheran and Simmons at least for Upton and Gregorius, and even that is a little low. They need to add a second-tier (for the Braves) pitching prospect to round it all out.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

I wouldn’t deal Simmons straight up for Upton. Upton is currently better, but he is far, far more expensive, and you only get 3 years of him compared to 6 years of Simmons. I would be shocked if Simmons doesn’t produce considerably more WAR over the next 6 years than Upton does over the next 3. Besides, it isn’t exactly tough to get value from LF with a platoon, while it is basically impossible to do the same at SS.

YanksFanInBeantown
Member
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 5 months ago

But there’s a much bigger difference between Upton and their current options LF than between Simmons and Gregorius. Not to mention that who he’s really replacing is whichever scrub they currently have at 3B.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

Gregorius isn’t MLB ready. He’d probably be sub-replacement level at this point. A platoon of Reed Johnson and Juan Francisco between LF/3B really isn’t that bad. Besides, if the Braves are willing to take on Upton’s salary, they can probably afford to just resign Bourn and give up nothing other than money.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

Note that Francisco and Johnson were worth ~1.4 wins in under 500 PAs last year. You’re also talking about the Braves dealing 1 of 2 options for their #5 SP slot this year (and best case their only non replacement level backup option if any of their SP go down).

Basically, even using your reasoning, the Braves maybe gain a couple of wins, but they take on a pretty big chunk of salary to do so and take a sizeable hit in value in years 4-6. Why would they do that when Bourn is still sitting there on the FA market at a similar cost salary wise to Upton?

YanksFanInBeantown
Member
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 5 months ago

Bourn is worse than Upton and will still cost more on a 3 year deal by AAV. And Juan Francisco is terrible and Reed Johnson is a 36 year old platoon player, any day now he’s going to lose it. Replacing their production with Justin Upton would be a huge, huge upgrade going along with Prado playing 3B full time.

And Gregorius should be ready at some point this season coming up.

I understand the Simmons love, and there is no denying that he’s a stud, but I am super, super high on Justin Upton. I think he puts up 20+ wins over the next 3 years, the last years that the Braves have Heyward under control for, with Freeman and Kimbrel becoming FAs the season after that. He fits right into the Braves’ window to compete.

I think it just boils down to the fact that you’re higher on Simmons than I, and I’m higher on Upton than you, and I doubt that anything’s going to change that.

Thanks for the conversation, I genuinely learned a lot.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

My biggest problem with trading for Upton is that it is going to make it that much harder for the Braves to sign Heyward, Freeman, Kimbrel, etc. to extensions before they hit FA.

Despite Upton being better than Bourn, the fact is Bourn won’t cost you Simmons 1/2 of the top 6 in your farm system. I think I’d take Bourn and Simmons over Upton and Gregorius next year and that’s before even taking into account the other prospects going the Dbacks way.

Jeremy
Guest
Jeremy
3 years 5 months ago

What’s a “Mike Stanton”?

TD
Guest
TD
3 years 5 months ago

Listening to Braves fans talk about Simmons is the worst.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

Because only Braves fans are high on him, right? Sure KLaw just rated him as the 21st best MLB player under age 25 and he has the best contract situation of the group, but that’s practically meaningless. Nothing special about an 80 glove, 80 arm shortstop with an elite contact rate.

TD
Guest
TD
3 years 5 months ago

Yes, that is what I said. I said “There is nothing special about Simmons and only Braves fans are high on him”. Good response.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

It seems pretty clear you are implying Braves fans overrate Simmons when they are far from the only people who are very high on him and see him as a very valuable asset. If we misinterpreted your statement, why not try to clarify instead of getting snarky when someone challenges you?

TD
Guest
TD
3 years 5 months ago

“Challenging” me? Listen to yourself.

I meant exactly what I said and you have illustrated perfectly: Listening to Braves fans talk about Simmons is the worst.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

Funny how one of us has had productive conversations in this comment section while the other hasn’t. You clearly just want to whine, not have an actual conversation.

TD
Guest
TD
3 years 5 months ago

Yes, it should have been immediately clear from the very words of my original comment that I would not want to have a conversation with Braves fans about Simmons. So what are you doing?

Oh right, being “productive”. That’s what internet comment sections are for – “actual conversations”. Certainly not comments.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
3 years 5 months ago

If we are going to take you at your words, you believe listening to Braves fans talk about Simmons is worse than being decapitated by terrorists in front of your family. I mean, you said it was the worst, didn’t you?

JT Grace
Guest
JT Grace
3 years 5 months ago

Why shouldn’t we get excited about the best defensive shortstop in MLB who also happens to hit .290???

TD
Guest
TD
3 years 5 months ago

Yup, that’s what I said! I said Braves fans should not get excited about Simmons. That’s what I said. Good response.

Jesus Christ.

YanksFanInBeantown
Member
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 5 months ago

“Who also happened to hit .290 over 50 games last season”

There. Fixed that for you

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

I mean he’s a relatively good bet to be a .290 hitter. It’s not like last season’s number was a BABIP driven fluke and he’s already showing great contact rates at the MLB level despite still being pretty raw offensively (he made his MLB debut less than 2 years after being drafted out of junior college and didn’t get the benefit of high level travel baseball like the vast majority of American players…only guy I know of who followed a similar path was Pujols not to say they have anything in common as hitters).

YanksFanInBeantown
Member
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 5 months ago

How empty will that .290 be though? Is he a true talent .125 ISO hitter? That it, is he a Yunel Escobar hitting .290 or a Marco Scutaro/Alexei Ramirez hitting .290?

I honestly don’t know how much power projection he has, so I’m asking.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

I think he projects to be a decent power hitter. His absolute ceiling is probably a 15 HR hitter, but he’s tall, has pretty good bat speed, and should get a good amount of other XBH. I also think there is a good chance that he ends up being a pretty good OBP guy. The thing to keep in mind is that ~30 months ago the Braves drafted him as a pitcher because he was so raw offensively. Less than 2 years after being drafted he was hitting great in AA and then more than holding his own in the majors. He has made a ton of progress with the bat the past 2 seasons that’s its tough to peg down just how good he could end up being.

kid
Member
kid
3 years 5 months ago

Agree that Simmons is being overrated here. We get that he’s very good-to-great defensively with upside in his bat, but the hype train is starting to come off of the tracks.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

Not sure how people are overrating him. He’s somewhere between elite and best in baseball with the glove and looks like a solid bet to be an average hitter. That is incredibly valuable especially when the guy is earning the minimum for 3 more years.

YanksFanInBeantown
Member
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 5 months ago

No doubt, but it’s not more valuable than Justin Upton and a shortstop who’s somewhere between good and elite with the glove and looks like a solid bet to be an average hitter who’s earning the minimum for 3 more years.

Nitram Odarp
Guest
Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

In no way is Gregorius a good bet to be an average hitter. He may eventually get there, but there’s a much better chance he’s a well below average hitter throughout his career. Gregorius is a lesser hitter currently, has a much worse minor leaguer track record, isn’t MLB ready, and isn’t nearly as good defensively. There’s still a chance he is never an average regular at SS. Simmons is already that valuable at worst. The value of the two isn’t particularly close.

And no one has said the Braves shouldn’t consider a deal of Upton and Gregorius for Simmons. They’re against the idea of Upton and Gregorius for Simmons along with the Braves 1/2 of the Braves top 6 prospects.

YanksFanInBeantown
Member
YanksFanInBeantown
3 years 5 months ago

Of course no one has said that the Braves shouldn’t consider Upton and Gregorius for Simmons. That would be a ridiculous haul because, as I’ve said previously, Upton is a better player than Simmons.

And Gregorius projects as an average hitter (90-100 wRC+) from what I read, even if that doesn’t show up in the numbers. Even assuming he’ll be a 90 wRC+ guy, that’s 2.5-3 wins with his defense to go with Upton’s 130+ wRC+, good defense in a corner and a solid amount of steals when he’s healthy.

Nitram Odarp
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Nitram Odarp
3 years 5 months ago

Not sure where you’re getting that with Gregorius. I follow prospects pretty closely, consider myself to be much higher on him than most, and still think a 90-100 wRC+ is fairly optimistic as far as an expected outcome. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do it, but I think an 80 wRC+ is significantly more likely than a 100 and as likely as a 90. And like I said, I consider myself to be fairly high on him. If people really thought he was all but a lock to be a 2.5 to 3 WAR player, I’d expect him to be ranked far higher on prospect lists.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
3 years 5 months ago

Looks like ZIPS agreed with Nitram (86 was the magic number). And projects Gigi at 1.9 WAR. It should also be noted that a trade for Gigi would likely be trading for the exact same number of years – but you can either have a Simmons that has already shown some good signs in the bigs with the bat (and with the better glove) or a guy who has not.

kid
Member
kid
3 years 5 months ago

Does anybody have any in-person scouting reports on Olt? Is he legit, or are his stats just a function of him being old for his level? He’s 24 just hit AA last year.

wilt
Guest
wilt
3 years 5 months ago

That’s an absurd overpay.

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