Prospect Watch: A Statistical Report on Every First-Rounder

Just over a month has passed since baseball’s amateur draft in early June, and a majority of the players selected during the first round of same have now both (a) signed with the relevant selecting club and (b) recorded either a plate appearance or inning as an actual professional.

What the author has done for this edition of the Prospect Watch is to produce a pair of leaderboards (one for batters; one, pitchers) of the aforementioned first-round selections, with a view towards monitoring the early production of these players. Links to the relevant FanGraphs leaderboards are available here: Batters / Pitchers.

Leaderboard: First-Round Batters
Here are all the first-round batters to have recorded at least a single plate appearance, sorted by Weighted Runs Above Average (wRAA):

Player Team Pick Age Pos PA BB% K% HR BABIP wRC+ wRAA
Kyle Schwarber Cubs (A-/A) 4 21 C 87 11.5% 14.9% 8 .434 269 17.5
Nick Gordon Twins (R) 5 18 SS 71 5.6% 12.7% 1 .400 155 5.0
Derek Hill Tigers (R) 23 18 OF 58 15.5% 15.5% 0 .395 159 4.1
Alex Jackson Mariners (R) 6 18 OF 46 8.7% 26.1% 1 .429 151 3.2
Cole Tucker Pirates (R) 24 17 SS 48 20.8% 18.8% 0 .407 149 2.8
Alex Blandino Reds (R) 29 21 SS 51 7.8% 15.7% 2 .324 129 2.2
Casey Gillaspie Rays (A-) 20 21 1B 92 10.9% 29.3% 3 .314 114 1.5
Bradley Zimmer Indians (A-) 21 21 OF 41 12.2% 17.1% 0 .357 124 1.1
Matt Chapman Athletics (R/A) 25 21 3B 63 6.3% 14.3% 1 .292 101 0.3
Braxton Davidson Braves (R) 32 18 OF 32 6.3% 21.9% 0 .263 86 -0.5
Max Pentecost Blue Jays (R) 11 21 C 3 0.0% 33.3% 0 .000 -100 -0.7
Michael Chavis Red Sox (R) 26 18 SS 4 0.0% 25.0% 0 .000 -100 -1.0
Trea Turner Padres (A-) 13 21 SS 87 11.5% 18.4% 0 .271 74 -2.7

Leaderboard: First-Round Pitchers
Here are all the first-round pitchers to have recorded an appearance of some sort — sorted, in this case, by kwERA, an ERA estimator that accounts for strikeout and walk rate and which Dodgers draftee Grant Holmes has temporarily broken:

Player Team Pick Age Hand IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP kwERA
Grant Holmes Dodgers (R) 22 18 RHP 2.0 22.5 4.5 0.0 0.56 -1.45
Jack Flaherty Cardinals (R) 34 18 RHP 1.0 18.0 0.0 9.0 12.56 0.60
Luke Weaver Cardinals (R) 27 20 RHP 1.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 1.56 1.40
Aaron Nola Phillies (A+) 7 21 RHP 11.1 8.7 2.4 0.8 3.35 3.11
Touki Toussaint D-backs (R) 16 18 RHP 2.0 18.0 9.0 0.0 3.06 3.55
Justus Sheffield Indians (R) 31 18 LHP 1.1 13.5 6.8 0.0 3.31 3.68
Foster Griffin Royals (R) 28 18 LHP 5.2 6.4 4.8 1.6 6.73 4.90
Luis Ortiz Rangers (R) 30 18 RHP 1.0 9.0 9.0 0.0 5.06 5.40
Tyler Kolek Marlins (R) 2 18 RHP 4.0 4.5 6.8 0.0 4.81 6.16

Moderately Helpful Notes
Here are five notes, offering varying degrees of insight:

  • Omitted from the above are the 12 (out of 34) draftees not to have recorded any sort of professional appearance thus far — of which group, three remain unsigned. The unsigned, as follows, are: Carlos Rodon (LHP, Chicago AL), Sean Newcomb (LHP, Los Angeles AL), and Erick Fedde (RHP, Washington).
  • Left-hander Brady Aiken, selected first overall by Houston, agreed originally to a $6.5 million signing bonus with the club, but a final deal has yet to be reached owing to indications that the San Diego native might/does have a ligament injury.
  • Cubs’ catching prospect Kyle Schwarber, selected fourth overall out of Indiana University and signed for $3.125 million, has recorded precisely as many home runs thus far (eight) as every other first-round batter combined.
  • Right-hander Aaron Nola, selected seventh by Philadelphia out of LSU and then signed for $3.3 million, is the only first-round pitching draftee to have been assigned higher than Rookie-level ball. The college signee has, in fact, had found some early success already in the High-A Florida State League.
  • Baseball America’s draft database has been of some assistance to the composition of this post.


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Mike89
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Mike89
2 years 2 months ago

Conforto and the Mets still haven’t agreed yet??

Matt M
Guest
Matt M
2 years 2 months ago

It’s the “done deal” that’s getting close to being the “done deal that never got done.”

Philbert
Guest
Philbert
2 years 2 months ago

For the record, Pentecost followed up the 0-for-3 by going 5-for-5 with two doubles yesterday.

PXF
Member
Member
PXF
2 years 2 months ago

How do these players stack up through the lens of SCOUT?

David
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David
2 years 2 months ago

“We think his bat is better than projections.” Chad MacDonald on drafting Trea Turner.

Sometimes seeing something everyone else misses makes you a visionary. Other times it makes you consistently worse than the rest of the league at drafting and developing position players.

DCer
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DCer
2 years 2 months ago

Check out Alex Verdugo. Fell to 62 overall, but sporting an insane 8:2 BB:K ratio in 56 PAs so far.

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