Ranking the 30 Minor League Systems Statistically

As September draws to a close, postseason baseball beckons, and prospect-ranking season is in full bloom. I’m going to take a slightly different approach than most, and simply focus upon overall organizational depth rather than the players specifically. Which systems have the most and least talent on hand, and which have taken the largest steps forward on backward in 2015?

Up front, let’s lay out the basics of my prospect-ranking system. I evaluate position players and starting pitchers separately. All full-season league position players’ on-base (OBP) and slugging (SLG) percentages are compared to the average of their league’s regulars. A sliding scale of performance targets, dependent on players’ age relative to level, are utilized. All players meeting such targets are included on my list; there is no limit as to the number of players who qualify. This year, 329 position players made the cut.

The system is very similar for starting pitchers; the statistics measured are strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB). The same age-dependent performance targets, measured by standard deviations above/below league average, are utilized. This year, 179 full-season league minor league pitchers made the cut.

On the position player side, Carlos Correa lapped the field, with last year’s #1, Joey Gallo, finishing second. This year marked the third consecutive season that Correa ranked within the top-11 position players, and Gallo’s third straight in the top 17. On the starting pitcher side, it was a much tighter battle, with the Dodgers’ Julio Urias finishing first for the second straight season, nosing out the Twins’ Jose Berrios. Prior to finishing first in 2014 and 2015, Urias ran second in 2013, while Berrios’ runner-up finish was his second in the top 10 and third in the top 50.

It should be said up front that these purely statistical player rankings shouldn’t be taken as gospel. These lists basically constitute a master follow list, with traditional methods then used to tweak the order. There are no adjustments for park effects or positional scarcity on the raw list. As a result, some superior up-the-middle glove-first prospects’ rankings might suffer a bit, while bat-only guys might get a boost. Having 20-plus years of such rankings is quite a boon, however; for each top prospect, comparable players from the past can be identified and used as measuring sticks.

Without further adieu, let’s get to the organizational ranks:

HIT PIT ALL #1 ALL #2 ALL #3 AVG
3 1 Tampa Bay 2 1 1 1
1 11 Houston 1 3 3 2
7 2 Texas 4 2 2 3
2 13 Cleveland 3 4 4 4
6 9 Boston 5 5 5 5
10 8 New York Yankees 7 6 6 6
9 10 Colorado 9 8 8 7
15 4 LA Dodgers 13 9 7 8
4 18 Philadelphia 6 13 11 9
14 6 Atlanta 12 10 9 10
19 3 Milwaukee 15 7 10 11
5 24 Chicago Cubs 8 14 15 12
16 7 Kansas City 16 11 12 13
11 17 Minnesota 11 15 14 14
21 5 Cincinnati 17 12 13 15
8 27 Pittsburgh 10 16 16 16
12 26 New York Mets 14 17 18 17
13 22 Oakland 18 18 17 18
24 14 St. Louis 23 19 20 19
18 20 Toronto 19 21 22 20
26 12 Washington 24 20 19 21
17 21 Arizona 20 22 21 22
22 19 Seattle 21 23 24 23
25 16 Detroit 25 24 23 24
20 29 San Diego 22 26 26 25
27 15 Chicago White Sox 26 25 25 26
28 23 LA Angels 28 27 27 27
23 30 Baltimore 27 29 28 28
30 25 San Francisco 29 28 29 29
29 28 Miami 30 30 30 30

Some explanation regarding the above table… The first two columns indicate each club’s overall 2015 position player and starting pitcher ranking. They were calculate simply by giving Correa, the top-ranked of the 329 position players, 329 points, and each successive player behind him one point less. Each system’s ranked players’ points were summed into a single organizational score. The same process was undertaken for each of the 179 ranked starting pitchers.

I then combined the two rankings into one blended organization ranking in three different ways, at right. In the “ALL #1” column, I simply added the organizational hitting and pitching points together, and ranked the organizations. In the “ALL #2” column, I scaled the pitching points up to the same level as the hitting points, to make it a 50/50 split point-wise between the two, and then ranked the organizations. In the “ALL #3” column, I simply averaged the hitting and pitching ranks in the left-most columns, and then ranked the organizations. The right-most columns is a blend of the three ranking systems, and is used for the final organizational rankings.

Enough about the methodology; let’s talk about the organizations themselves, and the driving forces behind their respective rankings:

TOP FIVE MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEMS:

1 – TAMPA BAY RAYS – Just one year ago, the Rays had a middle-of-the-pack farm system, ranking 12th and 18th in position player and starting pitcher depth, respectively. This year, they rule the roost on the strength of both their bats and arms, and their quality and quantity of prospects. Seventeen Rays position players, tied for second most overall, and an MLB-leading 11 starting pitcher prospects qualified for my lists. Their organizational reset at the end of 2014 was the driving force: top position player prospects Jake Bauers (#10 overall), Willy Adames (#37), Boog Powell (#80), Daniel Robertson (#88), Andrew Velazquez (#105) and Nick Franklin (#120) and pitcher Matt Andriese (#16) all came over in offseason trades. Plus, homegrown lefty Blake Snell (#9) has emerged as an impact starting pitcher prospect. The Rays know exactly what they are doing, and are poised to compete on a shoestring MLB salary budget for the foreseeable future.

2 – HOUSTON ASTROS – The next two teams on the list deserve special recognition, as they retain their high rankings despite hemorrhaging talent at the deadline in pursuit of, in the Astros’ case, players like Carlos Gomez, Mike Fiers and Scott Kazmir. Despite moving catcher Jacob Nottingham (#13 overall position player) to the A’s for Kazmir and outfielders Domingo Santana (#5) and Brett Phillips (#43) to the Brewers in the Gomez/Fiers deal, the Astros easily finished first in position player talent quality and quantity (19 ranked players). In Correa, A.J. Reed (#14) and Tyler White (#18), they had three of the top 20. It wasn’t quite as bright on the pitching side, in large part due to the departure of Josh Hader (#6) and Adrian Houser (#23) in the Gomez deal. Francis Martes (#11) leads a still viable set of pitching holdovers.

3 – TEXAS RANGERS – Like the Astros, the Rangers retain a high ranking despite moving a bundle of talent to the Phillies in the Cole Hamels deal. The Phillies received four ranked players in OF Nick Williams (#74) and pitchers Jake Thompson (#73), Alec Asher (#107) and Jerad Eickhoff (#146), while catcher Jorge Alfaro has ranked highly in past seasons. Most of the high-end hitting left behind isn’t far from the big leagues, in Gallo and outfielders Lewis Brinson (#12) and Nomar Mazara (#51). The best of the pitchers, on the other hand, are still in A-ball, but the group of Ariel Jurado (#8), Yohander Mendez (#21), Luis Ortiz (#22) and Frank Lopez (#31) bears close monitoring.

4 – CLEVELAND INDIANS – The Indians have very quietly possessed one of the game’s better systems for many years now. A couple years back, their prospect depth listed toward the pitching side, but now, their position players have taken the lead. Francisco Lindor (#47, quite high for a middle infielder) has already made his presence felt, but in Dorssys Paulino (#8), Bobby Bradley #11), Clint Frazier (#20) and Bradley Zimmer (#38) there is outfield and corner infield power on the way. On the mound, the group of Justus Sheffield (#33), Adam Plutko (#45) and Rob Kaminsky (#69) — the last of those stolen from the Cards for Brandon Moss — leads the pack.

5 – BOSTON RED SOX – Bottoming out in midsummer may turn out to be for the best in the long run for the Red Sox, even if it certainly was not for Ben Cherington. There was no illusion that the Sox were contenders, so they kept their deep farm system intact. Their Latin American pipeline, in particular, has been strong, with Rafael Devers (#61), Manuel Margot (#73), Wendell Rijo (#83) and Yoan Moncada (#97) all making the top-100 position player list at age 20 or younger. Natural hitter Sam Travis (#41) actually outranked them all. On the pitching side, big league eye-opener Eduardo Rodriguez (#10) is the class of the group, though Low-A bat-missers Michael Kopech (#36) and Jamie Callahan (#62) should be watched closely.

It should be noted that the top six organizations, including the Yankees at #6, all hail from the American League.

BOTTOM FIVE MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEMS:

30 – MIAMI MARLINS – It’s a good thing that the Marlins possess a youthful major league nucleus, as there isn’t much help on the farm. Only one position player, Low-A slugger K.J. Woods (#28), ranked above #250, and only one starting pitcher, Low-A righty Jorgan Cavanerio (#41), ranked above #135. Even highly regarded 2014 blue-chipper Tyler Kolek (#173) qualifies for the pitching list almost solely due to his youth; his K rate was actually below the Low-A South Atlantic League average.

29 – SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS – It’s very tempting to give these guys a pass. Their minor league system is never highly regarded, but it continuously churns out unexpected contributors to World Champion clubs. Complementary pieces are one thing; however, there certainly do not appear to be core pieces on the farm, especially on the position player side. Former first rounder Christian Arroyo (#112) is the best of the lot. It’s a little brighter on the pitching side, where Clayton Blackburn (#52) and Kyle Crick (#82) have been better in the past, but still retain upside.

28 – BALTIMORE ORIOLES – Rough year for the O’s in the majors and minors. There’s some hope on the position player side, thanks to C Chance Sisco (#24), 1B Trey Mancini (#29) and very interesting 18-year-old Low-A 3B Jomar Reyes (#56), but future starting pitching help would appear to be almost nonexistent. The ongoing injury woes of Dylan Bundy continued this season, and no Oriole pitching prospect ranked above #157 on my list. The O’s are 30th in pitching depth, and it isn’t really close.

27 – LOS ANGELES ANGELS – Prospect quantity is a major issue here. They placed only one player on both the top-100 position player (Kaleb Cowart, #79) and starting pitcher (Nick Tropeano, #90) lists. Outside of Mike Trout, their offensive nucleus is aging, and a plunge from relevance in the near term is quite possible. There’s a little more hope on the pitching side, with the likes of Chris Ellis (#117) and Sean Newcomb (#120) potentially joining Tropeano and Andrew Heaney in the big league rotation before long.

26 – CHICAGO WHITE SOX – I actually don’t consider this lowly ranking that big of a deal. The Chisox have advanced quite a bit of position player talent (Avisail Garcia, Tyler Saladino, Carlos Sanchez) to the big leagues within the last year or so; a couple years ago, they had an old big league club, with little on the farm. There has been progress, and 3B Trey Michalczewski (#111) and 2B Micah Johnson (#114) offer more intermediate-term hope. There’s more depth on the pitching side: 2014 second rounder Spencer Adams (#20) and Jordan Guerrero (#28) lead the way, while recent call-up Erik Johnson (#148) and ground-baller Tyler Danish (#149) offer more immediate help.

HONORABLE MENTION: SAN DIEGO PADRES – A year ago, the Padres ranked seventh in minor league pitching depth, and two years ago, they ranked second in minor league position player depth. Now, they rank 24th overall. As negative as the big league ramifications of the Padres’ overhaul last offseason turned out, the impact has been arguably more pronounced on the farm.

BIGGEST STEP FORWARD: MILWAUKEE BREWERS – A year ago, the Brewers ranked 19th in position player depth, and 25th in pitching. Two years ago, it was 23rd and 28th, respectively. Now, they rank 11th overall, and third in minor league starting pitcher talent. Most of their rebuild was conducted via the trades of Gomez, Fiers and Gerardo Parra at this year’s deadline, which yielded them the aforementioned Santana, Phillips, Hader and Houser from the Astros, and pitcher Zach Davies (#77) from the Orioles. Toss in a very strong 2015 draft class, which isn’t yet reflected in the above rankings, and the future is beginning to look a little brighter in Milwaukee.

BIGGEST STEP BACKWARD: SEATTLE MARINERS – A year ago, the Mariners ranked ninth and fifth in minor league hitting and pitching talent, respectively. Two years ago, they were second and seventh. While it is true that they have graduated quite a bit of the talent driving those previous rankings to the big leagues, those players have (a) not reached their potential in the majors, and (b) not been adequately replaced in the last three drafts. Even the consensus-winner first-round picks like D.J. Peterson and Alex Jackson look uncertain payoff-wise at present. Their sole top-100 position player prospects are Ketel Marte (#85), Tyler O’Neill (#87) and the injured Ramon Flores (#92), while Edwin Diaz (#32) is their lone top-100 pitcher.



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#23org
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#23org
8 months 4 days ago

Oh how things change.

Damaso
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Damaso
8 months 4 days ago

love it, Tony!

Damaso
Member
Damaso
8 months 4 days ago

and if you ever considered doing, say, a U-23 ranking, i’d love that, too!

BMK
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BMK
8 months 4 days ago

You are being too kind with the Mariners. Clinton and Jackson had two of the worst years for minor league baseball clubs in almost forever… Everett faded, Bakersfield was not Blazing this summer and thank goodness that Tacoma was close to Seattle. The money in travel costs it must have saved. Ok, the two AZL teams the Mariners fielded were good but they are how many years away?

jfree
Member
jfree
8 months 4 days ago

I like the approach (less dependent on pre-ordained ‘prospects’) but this still seems more like a ranking of ‘likely future MLB players’ than a ‘minors system ranking’. Which assumes that the sole purpose of the minors system is to produce players for the MLB team and a system ranking is just there to identify those players.

I understand that the anti-trust stuff means that is exactly what the minors system actually is – a hand puppet for the MLB team. But given that most current minors players and most draftees will never make it to MLB; I’d like to see which MLB teams actually run the best minors systems viewed as standalone systems. Where the MLB team provides the annual inputs (draft) and takes the outputs (MLB rookies) but where the ‘minors system’ is ranked on how it gets players from A to B (development) and how well it plays its games in doing so (competition).

Comegys
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Comegys
8 months 4 days ago

Fun post. Will you release the player lists? Thanks.

DotComKid
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DotComKid
8 months 4 days ago

How can you say the Giants have the one of the worst far systems in baseball? They have won 3 world series in a very short amount of time. Kyle Crick is probably a top 10 prospect now and that kid they drafted this year will probably be a top 25 soon. Also just look at the stud top prospects that have came through their system recently: Duffy, Panik, and Tomlinson. I mean Panik is probably a top 3 2b in baseball now and Duffy’s will be a WAR machine.

This website is nothing but a bunch of Billy Beane worshipers. Quick question for all you– how many WS titles does Billy Beane have as a GM? ZERO! All that guy does is trade is star players for scrubs. He esentailly traded Allen Russell for Marcus Simeon. His trades make no sense and he’s probably trying to get that team out of that criminal infested trash can that is Oakland. Sorry but this pissed me off.

Hitler But Sadder
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Hitler But Sadder
8 months 4 days ago

Jesus.

Serbian to Vietnamese to French
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Serbian to Vietnamese to French
8 months 4 days ago

How can you say that the giants are one of the worst baseball system has received three World Series in a very short time. Kyle Crick was probably the top 10 for the service and they are now, they were recruited in the first year will be 25. Just look at the top prospects Stallion, also adopted its new system: Duff, panic and Tomlinson. I think it could be panic in the best B 2 3 in baseball and Duff will have war.

This site is just a bunch of Billy Beane believers. Question for you all the way Billy Beane-VS is GM? ZERO! This guy is the only host players, because uniform. Esentailli exchanged Simeon Marcus Allen Russell. His work is pointless, and probably many foreigners bucket Oakland. I’m sorry, but it pisses me off.

Well-Beered Englishman
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8 months 4 days ago

Oddly, this version is significantly more polite.

cornflake5000
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cornflake5000
8 months 4 days ago

Love it! Good job, sir!

Marcus Allen
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Marcus Allen
8 months 4 days ago

Count me in as a Billy Beane believer! It takes a great man to become a legend with the fans in Oakland. I should know.

Phillies113
Member
Member
8 months 4 days ago

I’m sorry that the many foreigners bucketing Oakland makes you feel that way.

Dr. Harrison Wells
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Dr. Harrison Wells
8 months 4 days ago

First, its a ranking based on actual performance this year, and not any type of prospect rankings. Two all the “stud prospects” that you mentioned graduated, therefore, only count the time they where in the minors this year in Tonys particular rankings. Three Billy Beane is never mentioned and the A’s are in the middle of the pack. Not sure where all this “worshiping” is taking place. Four, Allen Russell hasnt played in the MLB since 1925 and died in 72.

Marlow
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Marlow
8 months 4 days ago

Considering Allen Russell last played in 1925 and died in 1972, I’d call that one hell of a trade.

LHPSU
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LHPSU
8 months 4 days ago

Marcus Simeon never made it to the majors, though, so it was pretty much a wash.

MrManager
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MrManager
8 months 4 days ago

I’m making a site called “ChampionshipGraphs” that has a graph of World Series victories by team. I will write articles about how all the decisions that led to World Series crowns were in fact flawless decisions. Giants fans will finally get their much needed reading material.

cornflake5000
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cornflake5000
8 months 4 days ago

Giants fans and Brave fans… my lord do they have some thin skin.

cornflake5000
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cornflake5000
8 months 4 days ago

Go away. You clearly don’t grasp the article, nor Fangraphs for that matter. This site is based on analytics… so if you don’t like analytics or if you’re not smart enough to understand them, go back to ESPN. All these new readers are really killing the comments section. Be gone already,

Ben
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Ben
8 months 4 days ago

Chill out, everyone. This is clearly a farce.

mother mccree
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mother mccree
8 months 4 days ago

Yea, no way is that real. Too perfect.

mapsamountainrange
Member
mapsamountainrange
8 months 4 days ago

8.5/10

Would read and rage again.

DotComDad
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DotComDad
8 months 4 days ago

To piggyback off of this comment, it’s obvious this list is made up. The first 6 teams are all in the AL; then the next 6 are in the NL? No way that just happens. Wake up!

Ebenezer
Member
Member
Ebenezer
8 months 4 days ago

I’m a Giants’ fan, and I agree they do not have one of the worst far (or near) systems in baseball. I also agree that Panik and Duffy have thus far turned out much better than advertised. That said, what’s in their farm system now is not exciting, and this rating isn’t a shock, especially since their starting rotation after Bumgarner needs a lot of help, and their relief pitchers are also faltering. As someone who posts on McCovey Chronicles from time to time, most of those Giants’ fans don’t think our farm system is very strong either.

I do think the Panik and Duffy cases are interesting (and Tomlinson may be in this group as well, if he can keep hitting) because they weren’t highly regarded prospects, but the Giants were able to develop them into good major league hitters. As a Mariners’ fan as well, I find the two teams’ player development records to be a sharp contrast.

tz
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tz
8 months 3 days ago

It would be awesome for someone to develop a way to compare an adjusted minor-league performance metric like Tony’s to the actual value delivered by the players once they hit the majors. If you compile such a stat by organization, I’d bet you’d see the Giants way ahead of the Mariners.

Perhaps Chris Mitchell could use KATOH to compare the predicted WAR to actual WAR by organization….

Cory S.
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Cory S.
8 months 3 days ago

73 and 66. That would be said top 10 prospect’s K’s and BB’s this year.

Dude has low end reliever written all over him.

Sandy Kazmir
Member
Sandy Kazmir
8 months 4 days ago

Great stuff, Tony, thanks for sharing. Great to see the Rays, and Bauers particularly, receive some love.

Who_Is_Zorbist
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Who_Is_Zorbist
8 months 4 days ago

Blake Snell, Joey Rickard, Boog Powell, Jacob Faria, Taylor Guerierri, Jake Hager, Taylor Motter, and Tyler Goeddel all have to be on the 40 man roster later this offseason, or they risk losing them. The point being, they have a lot of old prospects.

I think the Rays are overrated doing a MILB ranking this way. The Rays didn’t have a single pitcher, and only 1 player, begin AA this year as a 22 year old or younger. The Jays on the other hand, had 4 22 year olds or younger begin the year on the MLB roster. The Rays let mediocre players dominate high A, while everyone else has them in AA or AAA. Look no further than Jace Conrad. He looked like a budding superstar in Low A as a 22 year old, but when he was bumped up to A+, he was awful.

I think you should place an age limit on players relative to level. Without seeing your total list, I don’t know the exact players that you used. But I suspect non prospects like Cameron Seitzer (3rd year repeating AA), or Austin Pruitt (26 years old in AA) qualify as one of their 17 qualifying players. They dominated their competition, but will never see the MLB.

Brad
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Brad
8 months 3 days ago

Every system has non prospects.

Who_Is_Zorbist
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Who_Is_Zorbist
8 months 3 days ago

When Daniel Robertson and Addison Russel played together in Oakland, they were separated by 1 level. They had roughly the same success. While the Cubs shot Russel through the minors all the way to MLB, the Rays left Robertson in AA despite hitting 20% above league average.

The Rays Low A affiliate had a whopping 3 players born after 12/31/94 finish the year in Low A. Thomas Milone, Riley Unroe, and Nick Ciuffo. Milone posted an 89 wRC+. Unroe posted a 95 wRC+. Ciuffo posted a 70 wRC+. All their young guys are below average. Their 22 year olds in Low A are crushing though.

The team that finished 2nd in this exercise, the Astros, had 6 players finish in Low A, born in 1995 or later.

The Rays are going to move their players along slowly. Even first rounders repeat levels routinely, as seen in Snell, Shaffer, Ciuffo, Stanek… I think it skews the data too much to compare a 22 year in Low A to a 20 year old in AA.

Assman
Guest
Assman
8 months 3 days ago

Robertson missed significant time with a broken hamate bone this year. Not sure why you think the team is squashing him.

All those 22y kids in low-A
Guest
All those 22y kids in low-A
8 months 3 days ago

were college draft picks within the last 16 months.

Brad
Guest
Brad
8 months 2 days ago

You really are special, huh?

MotherMary
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MotherMary
8 months 3 days ago

Sounds like the Rays system got way overrated by this methodology. I don’t see them as a top 5 system right now. Not sure about top 10 even.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
8 months 4 days ago

I think it might make sense to exclude guys who have now passed rookie eligibility. Correa is great, but he’s not just part of the Astros future; he’s a big part of their present. When looking at how teams are doing now and this list, you’re basically double counting guys that spent long enough in the minors this year to qualify but are now clearly major leaguers going forward.

Also, a complete list of 2014 would be cool to compare to 2015.

Oh, and awesome work. I probably should have said that first. Despite my slightly different personal preference, this is obviously a useful and sound project.

Jay
Guest
Jay
8 months 4 days ago

Do you have a list of where the teams ranked last year? Actually having that data with a column of ranking gain/loss compared to a year ago would be interesting to see for all teams.

Mike Fetters
Guest
Mike Fetters
8 months 4 days ago

Ranking minor leaguers on OPS and K/9 would be considered stupidly outdated in 2006.

Mike Fetters
Guest
Mike Fetters
8 months 4 days ago

Wait Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak would have killed in this metric…suddenly it’s all coming together

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
8 months 4 days ago

Sorry your team is near the bottom.

Non-Larry
Guest
Non-Larry
8 months 4 days ago

It’s “further ado,” not “futher adieu.”

Jeff Chisholm's bf
Guest
Jeff Chisholm's bf
8 months 3 days ago

You’re fun at parties!

Andrew Grant
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Andrew Grant
8 months 3 days ago

In 1998 Baseball Prospectus loved Jackie Rexrode. What wasn’t there to love? Here you had a 19 year old tearing up A ball with a .450 on base percentage. Little kids would grow up taking pitches like their hero Jackie Rexrode.

As we know now Rexrode was a total disaster, and was out of baseball at 21. But that’s okay, SABR stuff was new, and we learned from it. That’s how this stuff works, you have a theory, test it out, and you learn from it.

So why the are we going back to the same analysis that told us Jackie Rexrode was great? We’ve made so many advances since then and to bring this kind of garbage back pisses on the work that so many people have done over the last 15 years. Projection system based prospect lists have tons of issues, but they’re far and away more advanced than this so why are we using it?

This is the kind of thing that drives smart people out of the public analytics community. Why bother doing this stuff if we’re just going to ignore it and go back to the days of Jackie Rexrode. Is it just because we want this stuff to be easy? That you can go look at a dudes OPS and his age and suddenly become an expert? People clinging to outdated metrics has been a huge problem the last few years but this piece takes the cake.

This isn't gospel
Guest
This isn't gospel
8 months 3 days ago

It gives you an idea of what systems performed well. Next year, when we have the prospect/system rankings, we can use this to gauge the hype:performance ratio for each system. If anything, I think this post shows we have moved away from sole reliance on stats, considering the language used above the table (which presumably, you didn’t read?). Just because this method isn’t meaningful by itself doesn’t mean it is worthless.

Ryan
Guest
Ryan
8 months 3 days ago

oh what tampa would do to have turner and ross putting up minor league stats. or major league stats. yeesh.

MotherMary
Guest
MotherMary
8 months 3 days ago

This process delivered some weird results.

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