Can someone briefly explain to me why the standard deviation of daily performance would be biased against high wOBA players?

Also, is it just coincidence that the league average VOL is .500?

]]>Yes I think you hit the nail on the head. Bad players are more likely to have low variance. As a result, variance probably does have a somewhat strong correlation to ability. We don’t want to measure ability or rather, we want to avoid measuring ability so the metric is changed so that there is no correlation.

]]>Another question I have is whether players who have less volatility are rewarded in free agency at a higher rate already than players of higher volatility?

With regard to team performance it seems likely to me that, given two teams with equivalent wOBA on offense and identical run differential, that the team with lower VOL will not necessarily outperform the team with higher VOL. However, it does seem likely that the team with lower VOL will consistently have less variance to their overall record than the team with higher VOL.

In that way, as somebody said before, if you’re a team with weaker talent it might behoove that team to construct itself with a inherently higher VOL lineup in order to attempt to “get lucky” and reach the high end of the variance in any given year. Vice versa it would appear a team with more talent would prefer to construct a lineup with lower variance to minimize its chances of hitting the low end of there possible outcomes.

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