## RE24 – insidethebook.com

*This post originally appeared on insidethebook.com*

One of my favorite stats is RE24, which goes by other names, like “value added” or “value added by the 24 base-out states”.

The basic idea is that you are interested in the 24 base-out states, and the outcome of the performance in each of the particular states. A HR with bases empty has a different impact than a HR with men on base. A strikeout with a runner on 3B with less than two outs is hugely impactful, while with no one on base, it is no different than any other out.

To the extent that you think a player should be recognized for that outcome in that context, then RE24 gives you exactly that.

A decade ago, I wrote this little article, which focused only on the 8 base states (just for ease of explanation, and no other reason).

There is a useful chart there, and we can compare the first line (bases empty) to the second-to-last line (ROB, runners on base), so we’re only comparing those two states (was there a runner on base, or not). A HR for example is worth exactly 1 run with bases empty, but it’s worth 1.92 runs with a runner on base. While a single and walk have identical values with no one on base (0.29 runs), when you have runners on base, the single jumps up in value substantially (0.73 runs), while the walk adds a little (0.42 runs).

We see the K value has more impact than a regular out with a runner on 3B, -0.48 runs compared to -0.29 runs. (Note: since I lumped in all three out states, this gap is not as large as it should be, if I compared the K value with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs. If you want to look at the full 24-base-out chart, there’s one right here. We see the biggest difference is when you have a runner on 3B and one out: the K value is an enormous -0.60 runs, while all other outs is -0.22 runs. In this situation, the pitcher is going to go out of his way to strikeout the batter. Of course, the batter is aware of this, and he’s going to go out of his way NOT to strikeout. There’s alot of these things game-within-a-game insight you will find with the Linear Weights by 24 base-out charts.

Anyway, to the extent you want to be aware of the impact of each event by these 24 base-out states, then the actual outcomes is captured in RE24. Given a large enough career, what we care about is RE24, and not Linear Weights (i.e., wRAA, wOBA, wRC+). That because RE24 is about outcomes based on the 24-base out states, while the other stats don’t care about the outcomes in specific states, and just assumes the performances were proportionately spread out.

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RE24 is especially helpful with relievers, as it properly assigns the run values when a reliever enters mid-inning and/or leaves mid-inning. For a starting pitcher (or a reliever that starts and ends his own inning) RE24 is proportionate to his runs allowed in any inning where he starts the inning and ends the inning.

While RE24 is compared to the league average (and so a pitcher that allows 1 run in two innings is going to get an RE24 of 0), you can simply add the league average runs per inning (say 0.500 runs per inning) to get the total number of runs allowed by the pitcher, and be exactly matched. (Though, you have to be aware of what particular RE24 chart is being used, as Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference use park-adjusted RE matrix.)

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I hope this helps those who are a bit flummoxed by exactly what RE24 does and how it is useful. In time, it should be part of your saber-arsenal.

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Can past RE24 be predictive of future RE24?

That is a good question. An even more appropriate question is: what correlates with future RE24 more: (a) past RE24, or (b) past wRAA?

wRAA is Linear Weights, and takes “standard” weights, while RE24 gives each event a specific weight by the 24-base-out states.

If there is such a thing as “situational hitting” as RE24 is designed to address, then we SHOULD see a better relationship of past RE24 than with past wRAA.

Anyway, good question.

Here’s a link to a RE24 leaderboard I created: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=c,65,6,8,9,10,11,16,14,15,21,22,37,38,40,61,70,58&season=2012&month=0&season1=1871&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&players=0&sort=2,d

It appears that the stat only goes back to the 1980s. The top 5 are Bonds, Thomas, Chipper Jones, Bagwell, and Manny Ramirez.

Brian Giles makes a surprise appearance at #29.

B-ref’s goes further back: RE24 is computed from play-by-play data which is only complete from 1974 to the present. From 1948-1973, the data is incomplete, though for most seasons only less than 20 games per season total are missing.

The pitchers who threw to Bonds and Sosa with runners on second and third had a special mix of stupidity and courage.

I’m having a little trouble wrapping my head around some of the HR values. Wouldn’t, for example, a home run with a runner on 2nd with two outs be worth 2 runs (the home run) + the average run expectancy of 2 outs with no runners on? I’m sure it’s a simple thing I’m overlooking, or I’m confused on a concept, I’d just like to know why that is.

Take the case of a runner on first and 2 outs. Since it says the “value” of an out is -0.26, the generic run expectancy in this situation is 0.26 runs. By hitting a home run, you score 2 runs and enter a new state with 2 outs and nobody on. This new state is worth 0.12 runs. So you scored +2 runs, but then moved from a generic +0.26 state to a generic +0.12 state. So the result was +2 – 0.26 + 0.12 = 1.87 net runs better than the average outcome.

Ah, okay, I was adding the RE of the new base-out state instead of subtracting it. Thank you!

Shorter version: you have to subtract the generic run expectancy of the state before the home run to find the net effect.

You want the CHANGE in the 24 base-out states. You are forgetting that the ending state has a positive run value on its own. You have to take that out.

Is this in The Book?

The Book opens with RE24 as the basic building block of sabermetrics. Awesome stuff. The greatest joy for me, however, was explaining base-out-states to my Dad and watching the light go on in his eyes. Thanks, Tango!

Thanks for sharing your story!

A fairly detailed discussion of the run expectancy by the 24 base-out state IS in The Book.

However, let me recommend that you read it for free from Amazon’s Look Inside feature. Just go to my site, click on the Amazon link, and do a search for

REOI

That’ll bring you to page 24. Page back to page 17, and start reading from there until page 29.

Good Guy Tango Tiger. Writes a book, shows you how to read the discussion-relevant section for free.

If you needed another reason to have The Book on your shelf, here it is folks.

Thanks Tango but I will definitely be buying your work. When you say “large enough career” what would you equate that too? And are you saying that RE24 is the better method of comparing players who have had large enough careers? My main go-to has been wOBA and wRC+.

If you take an exaggerated example, say all of someone’s hits and walks were with bases empty (say he was .500/.700/.800), and with runners on base, he had a .000/.000/.000 line. Overall, he’s .275/.385/.440, but he ended up with a negative RE24.

Is he actually “pretty good”, or was he actually “below average”? It depends what interests you.

If you think of baseball as being based on the context, and the outcomes matter with respect to that context, then RE24 is your focus.

Now, in reality, we’re not going to have anything close to that example. But, when it comes to “close cases”, then RE24 is going to act as your tie-breaker. It adds another dimension to the discussion.

Perfect I was thinking along those lines as well. Thanks so much for the insight.

A good example is Tony Gwynn, who, we won’t be surprised, was a good situational hitter. His wRAA is +392 runs, which is great. But his RE24 is +551, which is tremendous.

So, RE24 gives him credit for all the adjustments he made, and it also includes by the way any “moving runners over by out” he may have had.

Curious how Gwynn compares to Raines and, more broadly, if RE24 measures tend to rate high BA hitters higher than batters who walk more (as compared to, say, wOBA).

Also – I should know this — do RE24 values reflect steals/caught steals too?

Feel free to search for any player you want. Raines is +423 in wRAA and +503 in RE24. So, a situational hitter for sure.

And since Vince Coleman is around average in all these stats, I can only infer that SB/CS is part of all the stats (wOBA, wRC+, wRAA, RE24).

How does A-Rod’s RE24 compare to his WRAA+?

AROD

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1274&position=3B/SS

+691 wRAA

+655 RE24

And I know SOMEONE is going to ask for Jeter:

+382 wRAA

+394 RE24

Anyway, you can look up anyone yourself. Just do a search like I did…

Jim Rice:

+392 wRAA

+247 RE24

!!!

Those GIDP really killed him there, didn’t they!

Great find!

Dave Parker, interestingly, is almost the exact reverse of Rice:

+260 wRAA

+384 RE24

Great find!

is the RE24 stat listed on a player page or the leaderboard links equivalent to “runs created” or “runs above average” or “runs above replacement”?

e.g. in 2007, A-Rod had 76.95 RE24. Does that mean, according to his complete performance in all the base-out states he had in 2007, he generated 76.95 runs? Or did he generated 76.95 runs above AVERAGE? or what?

just want to make sure I understand the context, as this seems like a great stat for judging results with context included.

Runs above average, thanks for asking.

thanks for the reply. Is “average” defined as the average expectation for the base-out state based on historical data? e.g. runner on 1st, 1 out would historically be expected to produce 0.34 runs on average (just making up a number) but if the batter hits a homerun (worth 1.73 runs according to the link you posted) then he would get credit for 1.39 runs above average?

Right, it’s based on historical data then “tuned” for a particular run environment for that year-park.

You can see a standard set here. Someone at my site suggested taking a screen capture with your phone (of the 1993-2010 chart), and reference it at the park!

http://tangotiger.net/re24.html

How is it that one of the linear weights defensive indifference values is negative?

If you are referring to this chart, then I explained the sampling issues:

http://www.tangotiger.net/RE9902event.html

Right, sorry.

I was trying to figure out of the value of defensive indifference really should be positive after there was such a SB in a game I was listening to that increased expected output for the offensive team. I was hoping that table could tell me, but without error bars, I’m not sure if the non-zero value is significant.

Just check Fangraphs’ play-by-play log for the game/play in question, and you’ll see how much the win expectancy improved because of the defensive indifference.

Ryan Howard’s career RE24 is 50 points higher than his wRAA, and was 20 points higher this year.

It’s runs not “points”. Great find!

According to B-Ref’s Barry Bonds is tops with 1356.277 (fangraphs is 1348.26) and a distant second is Hank Aaron at 976.728. Yeah, Bonds was the good.

I grabbed the 778 batters with 5000+ PA from 1974 to 2012; here are the leaders and trailers in RE24/600PA – wRAA/600PA:

Jose Cruz +12.4

Terry Pendleton +11.2

Ryan Klesko +11.0

Edgardo Alfonzo +10.4

Steve Garvey +10.1

Carl Everett +9.7

Darryl Strawberry +9.6

Mike Piazza +9.4

Tony Gwynn +9.3

Derek Bell +9.2

…

Brook Jacoby -7.0

Chet Lemon -7.1

Tom Brunansky -7.3

Ivan Rodriguez -7.4

Lance Parrish -7.4

Rick Dempsey -7.6

Neifi Perez -7.6

Jason Varitek -7.9

Jim Rice -9.6

Rick Burleson -9.7

Wonderful work!

Whoops– not sure where I got 778 batters… it was actually 380 :)

Awesome stuff. If nothing else, this is a great stat to show old-school fans who believe in RBI and whatnot. It’s a nice compromise between advanced stats and traditional wisdom about situational hitting.

Excellent characterization. I agree it’s got that nice blend that it bridges the old school and new school.

What prompted this thread was that I asked readers on my blog with metric they had little to no use for (for whatever reason, either because they didn’t like it, or they didn’t know what it was), and RE24 was #1 for least useful.

Basically, RE24 got bad or no P.R., and hopefully it’ll gain at least enough traction that it becomes another tool in the saber-utility-belt. Productive outs, situational hitting, GIDP, etc. It captures all of it pretty well, and in terms of “real” runs.

Am I correct in understanding that RE24 doesn’t consider fielding at all? For example, if the bases are empty there is no difference in RE24 between reaching first by a single or an error, right?

Correct.