Red Sox Extend Dustin Pedroia at Ian Kinsler Price

Last week, in rating Dustin Pedroia 25th on the trade value list, I noted that he was “an elite player making a relative pittance for the next two seasons.” That is still true, but his relative pittance is going to grow substantially starting in 2015, as the Red Sox have agreed to sign Pedroia to a long term contract that will keep him in Boston through 2021.

As Rob Bradford notes in his message, the contract is a seven year deal for approximately $100 million that begins in 2015, so it could also be seen as a six year extension given that the Sox already had a team option for that year. No matter how you want to phrase it, Pedroia has gone from being under team control for the next two years to the next eight years.

Given that he was going to be paid $11 million in 2015 without the extension, and that the new deal pays him “around $100 million”, we can note that those extra six years cost the Red Sox something in the range of $90 million in new money. And, given the rising prices of high performing players, this a smart move for Boston, especially given what his asking price might have been if he signed after Robinson Cano.

Over the winter, we saw Felix Hernandez and Justin Verlander — both two years from free agency — sign extensions that added five years of team control for $135 million and $140 million respectively. Elvis Andrus, also two years from free agency, signed an eight year, $120 million extension. While Pedroia isn’t a perfect comparison to any of these players, getting him for less than $100 million over six years seems like a pretty nice little discount.

Maybe the best comparison overall for this deal is the Ian Kinsler extension from last year. The Rangers owned his rights for two more seasons when they gave him a $75 million extension over five years, so the AAV on that deal and this one seem quite similar, with Pedroia getting one extra guaranteed season. Interestingly, if you look at Kinsler and Pedroia from their three years leading up to the extension, they look pretty darn similar.

Name PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR
Dustin Pedroia 1,803 10% 11% 0.151 0.319 0.301 0.373 0.453 0.359 123 33 0 15.3
Ian Kinsler 1,823 11% 11% 0.203 0.260 0.262 0.352 0.465 0.357 114 29 19 15.0

Kinsler hit for more power, Pedroia had a higher BABIP, but in the end, it added up to a pretty similar overall package. The defensive reports on Pedroia are a lot stronger than on Kinsler, who began his career as a pretty brutal second baseman, so perhaps you want to give Pedroia a little bit of a boost for defensive value if you don’t trust UZR equating their value in the field. Either way, though, they’re going to end up in the same ballpark, which was probably a point of evidence used by the Red Sox in negotiations, I’d imagine.

That comparison is both good for the Sox (since Kinsler’s extension was a lot cheaper than others we’ve seen) and maybe a little scary for the Sox, since Kinsler immediately posted the worst offensive season of his career after signing the deal, and it’s not entirely clear that Kinsler would get that same $75 million this winter had the Rangers not locked him up last spring, but he’s still a valuable piece and the deal hardly looks like an albatross. And Pedroia has a stronger track record than Kinsler, especially on defense.

But, there remains skepticism about the aging curves of second baseman in general. There’s a conventional wisdom that says that the position takes a physical toll on players that other spots on the field do not, and people point to guys like Roberto Alomar who just lost all his skills earlier than expected. However, I don’t actually see a lot of evidence that we should be too scared of how second baseman age relative to how everyone else ages, anyway.

A couple of years ago, I wrote about this while discussing Chase Utley‘s aging curve. Utley has obviously had some injury problems over the last few years, but has remained a highly productive player when he’s on the field, and as I noted in that article, most second baseman who had been as good as he had in his twenties continued to be productive in their thirties. I also looked at the issue in March, when discussing Robinson Cano’s next contract, and didn’t see any compelling data that suggested offensive oriented second baseman just stopped hitting after turning 30.

There are second baseman who have gotten old in a hurry, just like there are players at every position. If second baseman are more prone to premature aging, I haven’t yet seen evidence to support that idea.

In Pedroia, the Sox have one of the games premier players. He might not be tall, and he might not produce in the way that a lot of other players produce, but he’s one of the most valuable baseball players on the planet. Pedroia likely won’t be as good from 32-38 as he was earlier in his career, but at the price Boston is paying, he doesn’t have to be. With the going rate of inflation in baseball, $15 million per year could easily be the market price for an average player by the middle of this contract.

The last couple of years of this deal probably aren’t going to look so great, as Pedroia is unlikely to still be a good starting second baseman in his late thirties. However, the price for the first few years is so low that the overall deal should be a net positive for the Red Sox. Pedroia’s a star who has never been paid like one, and with this deal, he never will be. But he’s going to spend the rest of his career in Boston, most likely, and that is probably more important than maximizing his earnings.



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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.


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Jon
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Jon
3 years 1 month ago

Pedroia is a good player, but its fenway that makes him great. Hes a career .322/.388/.502 at Fenway, .284/.354/.412 away.

Julian
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Julian
3 years 1 month ago

In other words, a great deal for the Red Sox, then.

Dan
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Dan
3 years 1 month ago

In a perfect world, the Red Sox would pay $1 more than the next highest bidder. That he is worth more to the Red Sox than any other team does not necessarily mean they should pay him more.

Playing devil’s advocate…

Andy
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Andy
3 years 1 month ago

His away line is not that bad. I think some teams would love for their second basemen to have his away line.

my jays are red
Guest
my jays are red
3 years 1 month ago

and that’s why the red sox decided to extend him. even away that’s good for a 108 WRC+ and outstanding defense. no matter where he is, the contract is justified, and having it in Boston is just a plus.

Joe R
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Joe R
3 years 1 month ago

Yup. Still a solid 3-3.5 WAR type player. And lots of players have large Home/Away splits.

tiger
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tiger
3 years 1 month ago

Does wRC+ consider handedness of batter or just total park environment?

Sleight of Hand Pro
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Sleight of Hand Pro
3 years 1 month ago

he will play half his games at fenway……

Professor Ross Eforp
Member
Professor Ross Eforp
3 years 1 month ago

And his replacement would get to play half of his games at Fenway.

It isn’t like a golf course where you have to know the breaks and stuff.

whonichol
Member
whonichol
3 years 1 month ago

Yeah, it’s not like Fenways has any weird shapes or angles and stuff…

vivaelpujols
Guest
vivaelpujols
3 years 1 month ago

you can’t simultaneously argue that Pedroia is disproportionately advantaged by Fenway and that his replacement would be as well. Can only have it one way.

Either way, park factors are the answer.

Ben Hall
Member
Member
Ben Hall
3 years 1 month ago

wRC+ accounts for park. Yes, Pedroia’s has hit notably better at home, accounting for Fenway’s run environment, and he is thus more valuable to the Sox than to other teams, it would seem. But not every player hits better at Fenway, accounting for its run environment.

Richie
Member
Richie
3 years 1 month ago

I don’t think Fenway has any weird shapes or angles anywhere near 2nd base.

TomG
Member
TomG
3 years 1 month ago

Good thing he can hit the ball farther than second base then.

NS
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NS
3 years 1 month ago

Home/road splits! What a new and interesting angle.

Baltar
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Baltar
3 years 1 month ago

Yeah, hardly any players perform better at home than on the road. When they do, their road numbers are their true talent and the home numbers mean nothing.

Nathan
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Nathan
3 years 1 month ago

What leads you to believe that if Pedroia were to play in a different home ballpark that his skill level wouldn’t allow him to make adjustments in his game to perform well in that park?

Marco
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Marco
3 years 1 month ago

So this moves him on the trade value list to where?

Baltar
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Baltar
3 years 1 month ago

Up a few pegs for sure.

Dan
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Dan
3 years 1 month ago

Honestly, it shouldn’t really change things. If I gave you statistics for a guy from his age 23-28 seasons and a half season’s worth of data from age 29 and then asked if you’d be willing to pay that guy $100 million for his age 32-37 seasons, you would look at me like I’m nuts. It simply is not enough information to make a decision that risks $100 million.

Shannon
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Shannon
3 years 1 month ago

In the 8th paragraph I think you meant to put “people point to… ” instead “people people to”.

@CarlosDanger
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@CarlosDanger
3 years 1 month ago

This is really an inappropriate comment.

Ryan
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Ryan
3 years 1 month ago

Huh?

jruby
Member
Member
jruby
3 years 1 month ago

I agree, Carlos, your self-referential comment was inappropriate.

@CarlosDanger
Guest
@CarlosDanger
3 years 1 month ago

Thanks! I really hope A-Rod gets banned in the next few minutes so I can spend a couple hours trolling that thread and get this out of my system.

jruby
Member
Member
jruby
3 years 1 month ago

The trouble is that if I post a comment telling you how that wasn’t trolling, and that I wasn’t taking your trolling attempts seriously, having read Eforp’s comment and whatnot, you’d be getting a reaction out of your intentionally poor trolling and thus successfully meta-trolling.

And you know what: I’m gonna give it to you. That was a really clever job of creating a troll/metatroll situation. Textbook even. You’re a champ in my book :-D let’s be friends and watch MLP:FIM together.

Mcneildon
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Mcneildon
3 years 1 month ago

Can one of you tell me where I can find this disputed instance of trolling? I always find potential troll posts and the responses fascinating; especially when there is contention about whether it was trolling or not. I’m completely serious.

Anon21
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Anon21
3 years 1 month ago

Just so you know: for at least one reader, the front page of Fangraphs is not updating correctly. The most recent story on the front page is Carson’s post of the podcast episode 363, and no stories from today appear on the front page. Some newer stories are appearing in the “featured stories” thing at the top of the page.

SB
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SB
3 years 1 month ago

Probably my favorite player in all of MLB (and I’m not a Sox fan). Happy for the guy. Happy for the Sox. They both seem to realize what they’ve got in each other. Plays hard, plays hurt, leads, performs.

Joe R
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Joe R
3 years 1 month ago

Yup. The biggest concern about the 2012 campaign was that Pedroia would just end up disgusted and want to leave. I know it’s disheartening to work hard, only for your teammates to be apathetic or dysfunctional. He definitely enjoys his baseball, and I enjoy watching it.

ScottW
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ScottW
3 years 1 month ago

Assuming he’s a 5.5 WAR player now with 0.5 WAR decline per year, they’re paying about $5.4mm per W going forward (assuming a 6/89 deal starting in 2016). Given inflation, his injury history, etc, seems like Pedroia may have slightly gotten the better end of this.

Sean
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Sean
3 years 1 month ago

Isn’t it a 6/89 deal starting in 2015?

2015: 4.5 WAR
2016: 4
2017: 3.5
2018: 3
2019: 2.5
2020: 2

= 19.5 WAR = $4.56 million/WAR — below the current value of a win (which will only go up)

Jason B
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Jason B
3 years 1 month ago

“which will only go up”

We totally agree!

Cordially,
The price of gold
The value of real estate
The U.S. stock market
Tech & dot-com stocks

bflaff
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bflaff
3 years 1 month ago

When have the salaries of baseball players ever trended down in the FA era?

Richie
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Richie
3 years 1 month ago

Still many different ways they could trend down. General economic malaise, government finally cracks down on owners extorting money for new stadiums, general deflation, et.cet.

Mcneildon
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Mcneildon
3 years 1 month ago

I understand your point, but I think salaries will continue to rise at least to some extent while there are still teams in line for large Regional Sports Network payouts.

Also, I don’t see general economic malaise as being much of an issue. Salaries continued to escalate from 08 through now despite a very serious recession.

Alexander Nevermind
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Alexander Nevermind
3 years 1 month ago

We’ve had a negative annual inflation rate just 3 years post Great Depression. It is quite safe to assume that $1 at the start of the contract will be worth more than $1 at the end.

Salaries can’t continue to indefinite rise at a rate faster than inflation, but why should we expect the value of a win to go down in the near future? There would have to be a dramatic change in the landscape taking.

Chief Keef
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Chief Keef
3 years 1 month ago

Maybe it’s just the wording but how does factoring in inflation suggest Pedroia might have got the better end of this? $5.4m per win is close enough to the current market rate, project that forward over the next 8 seasons and it looks favorable for the Red Sox.

Michael Scarn
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Michael Scarn
3 years 1 month ago

The new deal starts in 2015.

Professor Ross Eforp
Member
Professor Ross Eforp
3 years 1 month ago

The New Deal started in 1933.

@CarlosDanger
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@CarlosDanger
3 years 1 month ago

Technically that was “The First New Deal.”

Jonathan Nguyen
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Jonathan Nguyen
3 years 1 month ago

Assuming that you mean Pedroia gets the better end of it because the of the $5M valuation of wins, I’m not sure that being paid 400k extra per win or $2.2M extra per year. As the author mentions above, the $5M price tag is expected to skyrocket over the course of this contract.

When viewed from the other side however, overpaying by 400k is not bad for an organization only a few years removed from give Carl Crawford a contract that paid $35M over the first two years and netted a grand total of 0.1 WAR. The splits cited in other comments show why Pedroia’s value might have been diminished if the Sox had tried to move him. Locking up one of the league’s best offensive 2nd basemen with fairly team friendly contract looks pretty good right now.

ScottW
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ScottW
3 years 1 month ago

Guess I wasn’t entirely clear here…

First, I was assuming that the deal really starts in 2016 because absent a catastrophic injury, it was pretty much guaranteed that the Sox were going to pick up the $11mm 2015 option on his existing contract.

Second, I guess what I was trying to say was that even after inflation, given Pedroia’s age and history it seems to me a better deal for Pedroia to lock this up, with a slight risk the Sox are overpaying. While the value of wins may go up, b/c of his age his WAR profile from this deal will be front-loaded. You also have to consider that there is just an inherent riskiness to an extension that doesn’t really begin for another 2.5 years. While Pedroia is an established player w/ a limited injury history (outside of 2010), it would seem that this goes so far out that this should be discounted somewhat in favor of the team. A 6 year contract signed today that starts in 2014 is inherently less risky than a 6 year contract signed today that starts in 2016–particularly given that the player turns 30 next month, and a fair amount of his value historically has been attributed to his defense.

That’s all I’m saying… maybe I’m missing the point here, but kudos to Pedroia’s agent for getting this deal.

DanP
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DanP
3 years 1 month ago

@Dave Cameron- Where would Pedroia rank now on the Trade Value List?

Jake
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Jake
3 years 1 month ago

I have long hypothesized that Pedroia will have a quick and severe decline due to the amount of head movement he has in his swing. Now that he has a long-term contract it’ll be interesting to see if I have been correct or if he can prove yet another person wrong.

@CarlosDanger
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@CarlosDanger
3 years 1 month ago

Excellent hypothesis. As we all know, this is exactly what happened to MC Hammer.

JT
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JT
3 years 1 month ago

Seems like a LOT of money for a player who will be 32 when the contract starts.

jruby
Member
Member
jruby
3 years 1 month ago

It does, but I think it makes sense. Utley averaged about 7.5 WAR per year from 27 to 30, and if you project this year out he’ll have averaged about 4.5 WAR a season from 31 to 34 while playing about 100 games each year on average. But part of that was degenerative knee problems, which, who knows, Pedroia might develop but hasn’t shown any signs of that, only missing time for a broken foot and thumb problems.

Now, Pedroia’s about a 5.5 player now, right? I think that, from 31 to 34 (he turns 32 about 3/4 of the way into the 2015 season), 4 WAR per year isn’t going to be too far off. Sean’s table above seems pretty accurate. This deal definitely isn’t a *steal* for the Red Sox, but it seems pretty shrewd, especially in light of Cano’s upcoming free agency, as Dave noted. Probably best for the team to lock him up at face value before he gets a notion to ask for Cano money.

ScottW
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ScottW
3 years 1 month ago

Pedroia has only reached 7.5 WAR once in his career, and he’s been averaging 5.8 WAR/150 over this same age range. If you assume a similar aging profile, then we’d expect Pedroia to average just under 3.0 WAR over his 31-34 years. While this deal pays him $15m/year (assuming it accounts for the 2015 option being picked up), it also runs through Pedroia’s age 37 season…

jruby
Member
Member
jruby
3 years 1 month ago

That’s the thing though, I’m not assuming quite the same aging profile. I note that Utley dropped off by 3 WAR per year, but I don’t think that’s reflective of what’s going to happen to Pedroia because you can reasonably assume that Pedroia will play more games than Utley. I mean, there’s always a chance Pedroia gets hurt like Utley did, and this deal would look bad in hindsight, but I just think this is about break-even when you weigh it against the chance that, if there’s no extension, Pedroia snags 5.5 WAR next year and some team comes along offering 19 million per, which would deprive the Red Sox of the value they could have bought, at face value or a tiny discount, with an extension back in the middle of 2013.

Josh M
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Josh M
3 years 1 month ago

Perhaps but players in their late 20s/early 30s are always overpaid for the last few years of the deal.

Dan
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Dan
3 years 1 month ago

Sure, but as FAs you don’t have to commit six years 2.5 full years before the guy hits FA.

The Ryan Howard deal wasn’t just dumb because of the dollars, it was dumb because it was 2 years ahead of time for a guy on the wrong side of 30. Pedroia has likely already peaked on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. Utley was better than Pedroia in his prime (and no one knew the knee issues existed)–do you think the Phillies wish they had his age 35-38 seasons for $15 million per? I’ll bet they would have thought that sounded like a bargain in 2008, though.

The point is that you have to make a lot of assumptions when signing a player long term. Committing to a guy for 8 years (who’s only elite skill was his defense), even if he is very good at everything else, is unnecessary. Trying to project any baseball player over an 8 year span is an exercise in futility.

Richard
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3 years 1 month ago

Prediction: $15 million per will be a bargain for Utley’s age 35-38 seasons

Mcneildon
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Mcneildon
3 years 1 month ago

It will be interesting to see what Utley gets this offseason. I don’t think any team will give him $60 million for 4 years, but I could see that annual value for 2 or 3 years with some kind of games played vesting option.

Kevin
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Kevin
3 years 1 month ago

The Ryan Howard Deal was also bad because he’s not very good. Pedroia is still an elite second baseman, and projects to be for most of this deal.

Jason B
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Jason B
3 years 1 month ago

Richard–

I will take the other side of that wager.

Dan
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Dan
3 years 1 month ago

@Kevin

You’re willing to bet $100 million on Pedroia being and elite second basemen from 2016 through 2019? That’s a long time from now, and there is a really wide range of outcomes.

Dan
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Dan
3 years 1 month ago

I concur, especially given that defensive ability declines earlier than offense. Pedroia will still be a very good player when the contract starts, but it seems like unnecessary risk for Boston to do this deal now. When you have as much money as Boston has, why not wait? What would a 32 year old Pedroia really top out at after 2015?

jruby
Member
Member
jruby
3 years 1 month ago

Boston just looked at it and said “there’s two bad situations:

A: We don’t sign him now, we want to sign him in 2015, and the price of signing him in 2015 is going to increase; or

B: We sign him now and he turns out to provide significantly less value than the contract is worth.”

Based on whatever they project Pedroia for, plus the fact that some 2Bs are about to sign their deals, they think that Situation A is more likely. Plus, fans are going to like that they fixed up this long-term deal, they can roll out a Pedroia bobblehead or something…

There’s risk in signing him, but I think you’re overstating it because there’s risk in not signing him too.

Plus, the “when you have as much money as Boston has” argument works both ways.

Dan
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Dan
3 years 1 month ago

I believe the Cano contract is not representative of what Pedroia will get. GM’s pay premiums for guys that hit HRs. Pedroia doesn’t do that, and he’s been significantly less durable than Cano, even though Cano is a year older. The Yankees will pay Cano $22-24 million per year over 5 or 6 years. But they also know that he will have put up and elite season in 2013.

I simply don’t buy Pedroia as a 5.5 win true talent player right now. I think both the defense and the offense are above average, but that .337 BABiP makes him look like a 5.5 WAR player when he is probably more like a 4.5 WAR player. Even if you split the difference and we use 5.0 WAR as a baseline for 2013, he’s a 3.5 WAR player in 2016 declining half a win per year. Oh yeah, and that assumes he stays healthy. Furthermore, I don’t think Pedroia’s combination of skills (all very good, none elite) would generate a big premium in free agency at age 32.

I simply think the Red Sox paid full market value for Pedroia. Even if they save $2 million a year, I don’t think it is worth it because they are missing the 2.5 seasons of data on Pedroia immediately preceding the start of the contract.

Are you willing to risk $100 million today to save $2 million a year from 2016 through 2021. Personally, I think it’s too much risk.

Julian
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Julian
3 years 1 month ago

Dan when you assume 0.5 WAR decline per year you’re already taking into account the risks of injury. Besides, by 2021 it’s unlikely the value of a win will still be at $5 million. Sean pointed out Pedey would get somewhere around 19.5 WAR through 2020, knock in another 1.5 for 2021, the year it expires, and that’s 21 wins for $100 million, or, if you don’t like to include the option, 16.5 wins for 89 million.

If we say Pedey is a 4-win player in 2016, when the contract “really” kicks in, and assume we’re at 5 million per win, then:

2016: 4 wins, worth $20 million
2017: 3.5 wins, worth $17.5 million
2018: 3 wins, worth $15 million
2019: 2.5 wins, worth $12.5 million
2020: 2 wins, worth $10 million
2021: 1.5 wins, worth $7.5 million

That’s 82.5 million, instead of the 89 million the Red Sox will be paying him. But that’s assuming no inflation. If you put as little as 2% inflation in, all of a sudden the value of a win gets to around 5.86 million/win in 2021, and Pedey’s worth $91 million from 2016-2021. Make inflation 5% and he’s worth $105.4 million over that time.

If you’re looking at this and saying that with 0% inflation, the Red Sox are looking at paying a $6.5 million on keeping the closest thing they have to Derek Jeter, I’d say that’s a pretty good deal for them. Start thinking about the money coming in through TV contracts, and the Yankees presumably being the Yankees again sometime in the next 8 years, and so on, and you start to realize why the Red Sox did what they did.

And that’s not even discussing Cano.

Dan
Guest
Dan
3 years 1 month ago

@Julian
I simply think that even with inflation, there is an awful lot of inherent risk in extending a guy for 6 years when that 6 year period begins 2.5 years from now. I can’t predict inflation. I also can’t predict with any degree of certainty whether Dustin Pedroia will suffer some injury that costs him 50 games in the next 2.5 seasons. It’s probably low, but given that he has a torn ucl in his thumb right now, that injury could be 2 weeks away. If a 50 game injury happens in the next 2.5 seasons, then the Sox will have overpaid, because no one would give a 32 year old second basemen 6 years.

jruby
Member
Member
jruby
3 years 1 month ago

By the way, I don’t think this was “good” or “bad” for the Sox. I think this is about as neutral as a deal could get.

Professor Ross Eforp
Member
Professor Ross Eforp
3 years 1 month ago

Brandon Phillips is NOT going to be happy.

Matthew
Member
Member
3 years 1 month ago

Then there is poor old Ben Zobrist. After putting up a MVP worthy 8.5 WAR season in 2009. He was rewarded with a 4 year/ $18 million contract(two $7m team options.

Since 2009, has collected a whopping 27.1 WAR, good for 5th. Tied with Joey Votto and ahead of Ryan Braun. And only .4 behind Cano. Pedroia is 4 WAR behind Zobrist.

No to mention Zobrist deserves credit for playing an elite 2B,SS, and OF….

Professor Ross Eforp
Member
Professor Ross Eforp
3 years 1 month ago

Plus he is to donate up to $450k to the club charity.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/tampa-bay-rays/

Matthew
Member
Member
3 years 1 month ago

I hope that was his demand and not a team one…

Professor Ross Eforp
Member
Professor Ross Eforp
3 years 1 month ago

I’m not sure what it means to be honest. It’s just kind of a weird thing to be slipped in there.

Are they going to take it out of his check? Is he agreeing that if he makes charitable contributions, the first $450K will go to their charity?

Professor Ross Eforp
Member
Professor Ross Eforp
3 years 1 month ago

@Carlos Danger That may be the fastest anybody has whipped out a new screen name.

I assume you have spent most of the afternoon signing up at various websites.

@CarlosDanger
Guest
@CarlosDanger
3 years 1 month ago

Nah, for me it will be old before the day is done. But I really wish somebody like Brandon Phillips would take it over as a parody.

Joebrady
Guest
3 years 1 month ago

As a Red Sox fan, I’m pleased. This can’t be compared to other signings. This is more like the one-off signings of Jeter and Rivera. Yankees for life or RS for life have a value that is slightly higher than the normal WAR inspired calculations.

And knowing how Pedey plays, I full expect Pedey parts to be scattered all over the infield by the time he hits 34.

So I don’t expect much from Pedey over his last two years, but I also don’t begrudge him the money.

placidity
Guest
placidity
3 years 1 month ago

Do people really call him Pedey? Does this contract get put in the Pedey file in the GM’s office then?

Ruki Motomiya
Member
Ruki Motomiya
3 years 1 month ago

You Peder believe it.

Kevin
Guest
Kevin
3 years 1 month ago

It’s closer to Peedy than Pedey.

schlomsd
Member
schlomsd
3 years 1 month ago

Isn’t Pedey more of his brother’s nickname?

Krog
Guest
Krog
3 years 1 month ago

Do Red Sox fans really call Pedroia “Pedey?” I didn’t think I could hate the Red Sox more, but there you go.

whonichol
Member
whonichol
3 years 1 month ago

Yeah man, I wish I could be so cool and above it all like you. But yeah, fight the good fight against nicknames…

Joebrady
Guest
3 years 1 month ago

Yeah, it’s kind of like a nickname. We call David Ortiz ‘Papi’. We call Ellsbury ‘Ells’. We call Buchholz ‘Buch’.

I didn’t realize nicknames were that unusual. I know Yankee fans refer to Rivera as ‘Mo’, and Alex Rodriguez as ‘that dirtbag slime ball’.

No nicknames where you come from? How quaint.

TomG
Member
TomG
3 years 1 month ago

Sadly, yes. Even more so since it sounds remarkably close to the sainted “Petey”.

schlomsd
Member
schlomsd
3 years 1 month ago

I don’t understand why anyone thinks this is a good deal. Pedroia is pace for his second worst offensive year of his career – with his worst one happening last year. So what are the chances that you’ll have to pay him more after the 2015 season? Nearly zero I would think.

Blockhead
Member
Blockhead
3 years 1 month ago

He currently has a 120 wRC+ which is better than his career 119 wRC+.

That must have been one of heck of an outlier offensive year for his second worst year to be better than his career average.

Dan
Guest
Dan
3 years 1 month ago

He also has a .337 BABiP, which is 20 points better than his career average.

TheGrandslamwich
Member
TheGrandslamwich
3 years 1 month ago

I’m not sure why you could think this is the second worst offensive year of his career. He has a 120 wRC+ which is just a hair above his career average of 119. His slugging may be a tiny bit down, but playing with a thumb injury can do that to a player. Overall, 3.4 WAR at this point in the season is nothing to scoff at.

DNA+
Guest
DNA+
3 years 1 month ago

…seems like a lot of money for a singles hitter. Smart move by Pedroia to accept it, since he is almost certainly valued more by the Redsox than any other franchise.

NS
Guest
NS
3 years 1 month ago

League Average XBH% 7.8
Ian Kinser XBH% 9.1
Dustin Pedroia XBH% 8.9

DNA+
Guest
Caleb W
Guest
Caleb W
3 years 1 month ago

Singles suck.

db
Guest
db
3 years 1 month ago

It can take more than a full season for ISO to stabilize. His “true” slugging is probably only really average for 2b, but he plays elite defense.
Paying for slugging gets you into Ryan Howard type contracts (who age worse by the way). Pedroia does have a slightly higher career slugging than Jeter after all, and if he ages like Jeter, I think the Sox will be doing fairly well.

GhostofMeek
Guest
GhostofMeek
3 years 1 month ago

Since Utley was mentioned: Chase Utley’s deal was awesome for the Phil’s (and I think will be a better value than Pedroia’s in the end). But Utley’s deal may not pay for Ryan Howard’s contract.

The Phillies gave Utley $85 mil for 7 years (07-13). Here is how his WAR shakes out using Fangraphs data:

2007: 7.5
2008: 8
2009: 8
2010: 5.1
2011: 3.8
2012: 3.1
2013 3.0 (+1.5 Zips projection)
Total: 40

At the going rate of 5mil/1 War, Utley’s value to the Phillies was worth approximately $200 mil. Given that he was only paid $85mil, the Phils netted $115mil. Unfortunately Howard was given $125 mil over 5 years and in his first year and a half of the contract has actually netted -.7 WAR. He did post a positive WAR of .4 so far this year, but given that he is once again on the DL, I think it may be fair to project him forward as a 0 WAR player over the term of his contract. That means that he may drain the Phils of $125mil and even as good as Utley’s contract was, the Phillies net $-10mil between the pair. Of course, if Howard nets 2 WAR over the 5 years, the Phillies break even and he may absolutely show improvement. Simple calculations, and just for fun, but hey why not. (I know that the value of WAR increases over time and that these simple numbers overestimate Utley’s past value, but this also makes Howard’s deal look less bad moving forward, so I think its fair to call it roughly a wash).

Dan
Guest
Dan
3 years 1 month ago

Actually the Utley comparison is interesting to me. He was clearly better than Pedroia at his peak. If the Phils had signed him to a six year extension at the same age/point in the contract they would have signed a six year extension covering 2011-2016 in the middle of 2008 (an 8 WAR season). This hypothetical deal would look pretty bad in 2013.

The point is that a lot can happen in 5 years. Five years from now Pedroia will still have at least 45 million committed to him (more if the deal is backloaded) and will be 35. I’d say there is at least a 10% chance Pedroia doesn’t even play the last three seasons of the deal.

He’s an unconventional player. While he is currently playing at an All-Star level, I wouldn’t wager that he will keep up this level for 3 seasons beyond this one and then decline gracefully.

TKDC
Guest
TKDC
3 years 1 month ago

Fun Utley Fact:

Ages 32-34 (for Utley, this is 2011-2013)

Robbie Alomar: 13.1 WAR in 2029 PAs
Craig Biggio: 12.9 WAR in 1953 PAs
Chase Utley: 10.0 WAR in 1110 PAs (and counting)

Utley is 5th in the last 20 years (the first two guys on this list were Kent and Boone, who both absolutely crushed it ages 32-34).

pft
Guest
pft
3 years 1 month ago

Good deal for both parties

Offense is overpriced at middle IF due to the scarcity inflates such players WAR, and Pedeys WAR is inflated since the park adjustments don’t fully reflect Pedeys H-A splits.

Better off paying cheap money for a defensive specialist at 2B and reserving the money to get offense more cheaply on a $/wRAA basis at positions like 3B/1B/DH, than paying Pedey or Cano 25 million a year.

Troy
Guest
Troy
3 years 1 month ago

huh? the whole point of wRC is that it adjusts for parks…and thus completely reflects his splits. given that he’s at 120 +wRC for his career….yea he’s a good hitter.

pft
Guest
pft
3 years 1 month ago

I am saying the adjustments don’t go far enough in Pedeys case. Not all hitters take advantage of Fenway to the same degree. The adjustments are based on the average hitter, not all of whom get the same benefit from Fenway. Pedey is an outlier.

matt w
Guest
matt w
3 years 1 month ago

“Either way, though, they’re going to end up in the same ballpark”

I stared at that for fifteen seconds before I realized it was not meant literally.

Maverick Squad
Guest
3 years 1 month ago

I like Pedroia and the price seems fine but I must admit I always worry with these type of deals. This essentially is a 6/$89million from 2016-21 (age 33-38). That’s a lot of years and money for a guy turning 33. Signing guys to extensions when a couple of years from free agency worries me.

How much would Ped be getting if he reached free agency in 2016 even if he declined by the normal 0.5 WAR per year from now? Plus what if he declines quicker or even collapses, compared to the chances of him getting better than he is now – I only think he can go backwards or stay the same, he’s unlikely to improve from here.

PetenPedey
Guest
PetenPedey
3 years 1 month ago

About this 2nd base decline theory, I don’t have the requisite sample evidence to supply either, but I wish others dide.

And yet, just to throw some names, in addition to Cano, Alomar, Utley…

Sandberg (in a way), Knoblauch (in another way), Uggla (in yet another way)

Each is unique, but just like non-2nd-basemen, they all decline with age.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
3 years 1 month ago

BUT! the Braves are going to harness the wind power created by Uggla’s constant whiffing; it can power the greater Atlanta area and they can sell the excess to TVA, which will mostly offset the monies being paid to Uggla under his current contract.

KCB
Guest
KCB
3 years 1 month ago

I think the point that should be emphasized here is Pedey’s (and yes that’s what most Sox fans call him. It’s pronounced P D. ) leadership. This is the kind of ball player who comes to play every day. He inspires his teammates with his all out style of play, his durability and his relentless, positive, never say die attitude. Lets be clear however, that this is no “gritty” ball player who can’t really play and just gets by on “hustle”. This is an allstar caliber player who leads by example with his attitude, effort and professionalism.

Someone mentioned earlier that Pedey was playing this season with a torn thumb ligament and that was a reason for concern. Granted injury history is always something to consider when projecting the value and risk inherent in a long term contract offer. However, lets step back and think about that for a moment. First, we should note that Pedey’s playing like an allstar with one less thumb ligament than every other 2B in the AL, Cano included. Second, if Pedey’s attitude was as cold and calculating as most of the commenters suggest the Boston front office’s should be, he would sit out the rest of the year, get surgery on his thumb and hope that he is fully healed and playing well by the time he hits his walk year, winning season be damned. Fortunately for Red Sox fans that’s not the kind of ballplayer Pedey is. He’s a gamer. A baller. Someone who cares more about the name on the front of the jersey than the one on the back. As a Red Sox fan I’m happy to have the “laser show” staying right where it belongs for the forseeable future.

pft
Guest
pft
3 years 1 month ago

His injuries the past 2 years have been due to stealing 2B in a game they were down 3 runs late in a meaningless game, getting caught and killing a rally (going for his 20th). This year he dove head first into 1B to get credit for an IF hit in a game that was a blow out in the Red Sox favor.

As for leadership, he called out his manager last year and attended the meeting to voice complaints against him to the FO (Papi did not attend). He also did not attend Pesky’s funeral.

In 2010 he tried to show up fellow teammate Ellsbury who was getting a lot of heat for not playing hurt. He took grounders with his foot in a boot and vowed to return faster than the expected 6 weeks projected. Ended up missing the entire season and needing surgery.

In 2011 he said nothing about the chicken and beer.

Couple of years ago he threatened to put in a call to have umps detained by airport security because he was unhappy with a couple of calls, bragging he had that kind of clout.

Pedey is a good player and plays hard, and I am sure he is respected by his teammates, but some of the myth building is too much.

The Royal We?
Guest
The Royal We?
3 years 1 month ago

who invited the harold reynolds cliche machine here?

KCB
Guest
KCB
3 years 1 month ago

I’m not building a myth. I’m a fan. I don’t know what goes on behind closed doors in MLB. All the off field stuff amounts to 90% hearsay and 10% baseless assumptions. You assume Pedey never showed his frustration during the September collapse in 2011. How do you know he didn’t privately speak with Beckett and/or anyone else allegedly involved in the “chicken and beer” fiasco? The answer is you don’t. Just because you didn’t read about it on the Internet is not a sufficient basis to impune Pedey’s leadership qualities. I can tell you what I do see. I see Pedey’s play on the field. I see him take charge on infield flies, under game changing circumstances, and make a play while everyone else stands around looking at each other. I see a player who competes all the time even in “meaningless” games. Like Dave Roberts hustling for a stolen base in a meaningless game four not too long ago. Who cares if he steals the base? Who cares if the Red Sox win to avoid the sweep? There’s no way they can best the mighty Yankees four games in a row. Right? To be able to describe a MLB game as meaningless requires a fundamental misunderstanding of what it means to be a competitor.

DNA+
Guest
DNA+
3 years 1 month ago

He’s obviously a guy with a serious little man complex. Most people find that off putting. But for Boston, a city with a little man complex, he is a perfect fit.

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
3 years 1 month ago

DNA for the win!

DodgersKingsoftheGalaxy
Guest
DodgersKingsoftheGalaxy
3 years 1 month ago

OMG does this explain why my brother bandwagons those teams? I think it’s a solid theory

Step away from the stats
Guest
Step away from the stats
3 years 1 month ago

How much revenue does Pedroia create for the Red Sox?

Jason B
Guest
Jason B
3 years 1 month ago

A 2011 study put it at $1.31 per minute during the season, dropping off slightly to $0.87 per minute during the offseason.

nilbog44
Member
nilbog44
3 years 1 month ago

It just sunk in after reading this…. How the hell could Elvis Andrus ever get 120 million?

jeff
Guest
jeff
2 years 1 month ago

and a year later this looks like one of the worst contracts in all of baseball. he is now completely untradeable, just killing the Sox day in and day out. Odds of him still starting at 2B even halfway through the ludicrous extension?

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