Red Sox Gain Peavy, Lose Little

Earlier Tuesday, a lot of the talk was about whether or not the Red Sox ought to go for it and trade for Cliff Lee. Lee, of course, is an ace, a rare breed, but he’s also paid like one, and reports suggested the Phillies were holding out for a wheelbarrow of prospect talent, along with complete contract assumption. People occupied both sides of the conversation, but it didn’t look like a wise idea for the Sox, given how much they’d have to give up for one individual shorter-term interest. The Red Sox really wanted a starter, but they also really wanted to not give up their top-level young talent. It was up to them to find a way.

Later Tuesday, the Red Sox got their good starter. According to reports, the Red Sox and White Sox couldn’t work out a straight-up Jake Peavy trade, but then they got the Tigers involved and a deal was struck. Peavy is off to the other Sox, while the Tigers are up one Jose Iglesias and the White Sox are up one Avisail Garcia. And, of course, there are some other bits. The complete summary:

To Boston:

To Detroit:

  • Jose Iglesias

To Chicago:

In short, the Red Sox have a good starter through 2014, and an interesting potential reliever. The Tigers have a Jhonny Peralta replacement, as soon as they need one, be that very soon or next April. The White Sox have prospects, including one who drew nationally-televised comparisons to Miguel Cabrera. Granted, that was based more on background and appearance than talent, but now the Garcia/Cabrera comparison is further cemented in your head.

There’s a lot here to tackle, so we’ll start with the Red Sox. Though they have good overall starting-rotation numbers, they’re currently dealing with a bit of Clay Buchholz uncertainty, as he works his way back from shoulder discomfort. There’s no question the Sox could’ve used a rotation upgrade, and there’s no question this is a better gamble than giving up a lot of money and a lot of talent for Lee. Peavy, clearly, isn’t on Lee’s level, but none of the lost players are on Xander Bogaerts‘ level, and the money’s very different, and Peavy’s still good. Peavy boosts the Red Sox’s short-term chances, without actually costing them very much.

For all the talk about Peavy’s durability, last year he threw 219 innings, and this year he missed time due to an injury that didn’t involve his elbow or shoulder. He’s something of an extreme fly-ball pitcher, meaning there are always going to be dingers, but Peavy survives and thrives by getting strikeouts and limiting walks. According to former and also current teammate Matt Thornton:

“There’s one thing that will drive Jake Peavy nuts and that’s walking someone. He doesn’t care what it is in a situation. He’d rather give up a homer than walk a guy. It’s just the way he’s built.”

Since the start of last season, by park-adjusted FIP and xFIP, Peavy compares well to guys like Derek Holland, Mat Latos, and Jordan Zimmermann. There’s an argument to be made he was the best starter on the market this summer, depending on how available you think Lee really is, and Peavy throws two-thirds of his pitches for strikes. He is, basically, good without being really super great, so while Lee would’ve made the 2013 Red Sox better, Peavy makes them a little less better at a far lower cost that’s better for the organization’s long-term outlook. Also, Villarreal might be something, as he’s demonstrated an ability to make hitters miss. He’s going to the minors and he doesn’t throw quite enough strikes, but he’s young and you never know when a short-inning reliever might get his switch flipped.

The Red Sox gained without losing much. Iglesias has generated a lot of attention, but he’s no future superstar, and the prospects weren’t high on any lists. The Sox will now have to make do with Will Middlebrooks at third base, but maybe he’s improved, or maybe the team makes yet another addition. Even without this move, the picture at third looked pretty mediocre.

We’ll move on now to the Tigers. Villarreal, we’ll skip. This was about exchanging a toolsy young outfielder for a shiny young infielder. When the Tigers think Jose Iglesias, this is what they see in their dreams:

IglesiasPlay.gif.opt

Iglesias is going to leave third base behind and focus again on just being a shortstop. Immediately, he’s the backup to Peralta and the probable starter come 2014. But the expectation is that Peralta’s about to be suspended for Biogenesis stuff, so then Iglesias slides right in as a stopgap. There’s not a single person that has a single question about Iglesias’ shortstop defense. He has the ability to be one of the best defensive shortstops of the generation. All the questions are about Iglesias’ bat.

On the one hand, all right, a .348 wOBA. On the other hand, a .377 BABIP and an .080 ISO. Iglesias doesn’t walk and he doesn’t have power, so his offensive upside is extremely limited. Somewhat famously, he’s slugged .292 in Triple-A. People say he’s made helpful adjustments and what he does do is make a lot of contact, allowing him to pepper the ball and beat out some grounders. The question with Iglesias has been whether he’ll hit enough to remain a regular at short. Given his defense and speed, he only has to clear a low bar, and he’s 23 years old. It looks like Iglesias is a safe gamble, even if his overall upside is somewhat modest. As long as the defense is there, the rest of his game will be gravy.

Finally, there are the White Sox. The key for them is Garcia — he’s the only high-level prospect they received. Garcia has seen a bit of action in the major leagues. Montas and Wendelken have topped out in Single-A, and Rondon’s topped out in Low-A. They’re 20, 20, and 19 years old, but they’re a long ways off, and to be considered extra pieces. Garcia’s the get, and he’s long in ability.

With plenty of questions. Garcia’s a 6-foot-4, 240-pound set of tools that’s likely to play in an outfield corner. Before the year, Marc Hulet called him the fourth-best prospect in the Tigers’ system, and all Garcia’s done since is tear up Triple-A and appear in the bigs. He’s somewhat newly 22. There are fans of his arm and there are fans of his raw power. But Garcia’s swing leads to too many grounders, and his current approach leaves an awful lot to be desired.

This year, Garcia owns the highest BABIP at the Triple-A level. He also owns one of the highest swing rates, and one of the lowest contact rates. In the majors, he’s also been aggressive, and over bits of two years he’s posted a .290 wOBA. He’s too young and the sample’s too small to take that too seriously, but here’s the general message: Garcia’s the kind of prospect people don’t think of when they think of prospects with plate discipline, and while there’ such thing as effective aggressiveness, the burden of proof is on Garcia to demonstrate that he has the right idea.

Odds are, Garcia won’t become a big contributor in the field, and he’s unlikely to add much on the bases or walk very often. So to become a quality player, he’ll need to either up his contact or up his power, and while that’s all very projectable, Garcia has improvements left to make. As such, he’s a higher-risk prospect, as tends to be the case with toolsy guys. The ceiling is that he slugs somewhere around .500-.550. The floor is that he’s not a major leaguer. With a guy like this, there are no guarantees.

The rest of the package? I’ll lean on Ben Badler and Alex Speier, since I’m not a low-level prospect guy. Rondon is a flashy defensive infielder who doesn’t hit enough, and probably never will. In his professional career he’s hit .216. Wendelken is already a reliever, at 20, and he’s posted a below-average strikeout rate in Single-A. Montas might have been the hardest thrower in the Boston system, which automatically gives him a high ceiling, but he’s one of them live young arms without a quality third pitch, and with inconsistent command, so a lot of people think he’s a reliever long-term. Maybe a closing kind of reliever, given the heat, but low-level relief prospects are more or less a dime a dozen. Montas is the second-best piece here, but he’s very far away with an excellent chance of never turning into anything.

The gist? The Red Sox got themselves a good starting pitcher for a year and two months without losing very much of consequence. The Tigers exchanged a questionable young outfielder for a questionable young infielder who should fill an immediate need. The White Sox turned a good starting pitcher into four young players, none of whom seem safe. Obviously, there’s upside, as there always is with guys with tools, but there’s a good chance the White Sox come away essentially empty-handed. This, after selling maybe the best starting pitcher on the market. There are those who weren’t impressed by the Cubs’ return for Matt Garza, but it still looks better than this one, and Peavy isn’t a free agent in a quarter of a year.

Because I’m not a prospect guy, I won’t blast the White Sox. I could be completely wrong. The Red Sox, though? I know enough to know the Red Sox did well for themselves. There’s a right way and a wrong way for a team to go for it. This is the right way.




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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.


136 Responses to “Red Sox Gain Peavy, Lose Little”

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  1. Torri says:

    I thought the White Sox were receiving Iglesias? If not, they got hosed.

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  2. John says:

    Fangraphs – Red Sox Knob-slobbing Central

    -106 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • They are smart and good, which we support

      +91 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • DNA+ says:

        I understand that this is in response to an obnoxious comment. But come on. The Redsox have the resources to be a perennial playoff team and the expectations to match. Yet, they are not. They are certainly less good and less smart than their reputation. Fangraphs supports the Redsox, for the same reason they support Toronto, Seattle, and Tampa Bay. It is the process.

        -16 Vote -1 Vote +1

        • Jason B says:

          I like that you say “FanGraphs” like it’s one person. “TOE THE COMPANY LINE OR WE HAVE NO PLACE FOR YOU HERE!!” I picture Appleman screaming.

          I know there are at least two, and perhaps even more, regular FanGraphs contributors. Who, I’m almost certain, are distinct people with distinct opinions.

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        • tommy says:

          What? They’ve been a perennial playoff team every year for the last decade except in 2012 with two WS titles. I don’t know what more you could ask for. In fact, today they have both a great farm system with a competitive mlb squad, which puts them in a great position to be flexible going forward. I’d say they’re doing about as well as they can right now, and certainly are exceeding all expectations folks had after last seasons debacle.

          +10 Vote -1 Vote +1

        • LaToya & Michael Jackson says:

          Also we are (were?) completely different people. At least half of us are bizarrely near-white and very dead.

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        • Pablo Fanque says:

          I don’t think perennial playoff team means what you think it means.

          +6 Vote -1 Vote +1

        • sdflnk says:

          @Tommy

          Am I missing something? The Red Sox have missed the playoffs for each of the last three years. Maybe you meant they were a playoff contender every year except last?

          Either way the red sox have had an incredibly well run farm system for the past 10/15 yrs and are admired around the league for it. This trade is also an excellent one as they traded away a player who was very quickly regressing back to his real noodle bat for a very good pitcher and reliever while in the middle of a playoff race. The tigers were embarrassingly desperate. Iglesias’ OPS+ in the last month or so has been ~25 and in the last two weeks has been negative. You could chalk that up to sss if the MLE of his about 1000 minor league PA’s didn’t point to an ops of under .500. It looks the sox sold high on a player with a BABIP inflated line at the expense of a team that is worried about biogenesis.

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        • DNA+ says:

          …last time I remember the Redsox in the playoffs was 2009. …maybe I’m forgetting something, but that is a pretty big gap for a team that is supposedly in the playoffs every year. …as a Yankees fan, I remember 2008 and 1993 like they were yesterday. Sadly, we might be heading for another 2008 this year…

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        • Joe R says:

          The process is working incredibly well for the Rays and A’s.

          Not to mention, the Red Sox have been playoff contenders for years. 2010, they won 89 games and finished 3rd in the AL East, and 4 teams won 85+ games in the division.

          2011, they were a playoff team until their September uber-collapse.

          2012 was 2012. Whatever, it’s done and over.

          Outside of the team’s fixation on trading for no-upside relievers, the current regime in Boston has made good decisions that have helped the on-field product. And the farm system is still very good.

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        • tommy says:

          yeah i meant contender

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        • DNA+ says:

          Joe R,

          “The process is working incredibly well for the Rays and A’s.”

          That’s the thing. There isn’t really a process, is there? The Rays, Redsox and Blue Jays have very little in common, for example. The closest team to the Redsox is probably the Yankees. Both of these teams have the resources to make their (numerous) mistakes go away. The idea that there is one correct process and that the smart teams follow it, is just a narrative. However, it does seem that there is a perception that some teams have the “one true” process and these are the teams that are typically supported here.

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        • Eric Feczko says:

          @DNA+

          If I recall correctly, Ned Colletti solved the most recent Red Sox problem…

          Comparing the Red Sox to the Yankees is ridiculous. The Yankees have a 40% larger payroll. The best financial comp for the red sox would likely be the Phillies, Tigers(no, I don’t know how), the Angels, or San Fran. Of those, only one team (the Tigers) can really be thought of as well-run.

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        • Joe R says:

          @DNA+

          Comparing the Yankees to the Red Sox is insane. The difference in payroll between the two was large enough, that the difference would be enough to field each of the bottom 5 teams in payroll (Oakland, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Miami, Houston). Oh, and 3 of those 5 are WS contenders. Looks like $70MM can still get a team far, if allocated correctly.

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        • B N says:

          @Joe: In more recent years, I think you could argue that SF is fairly well run. While they’re not world-beaters in their management skills, they avoided an albatross by not signing Lincecum long term and got a good deal by locking up other guys like Cain instead. I can’t point to much in recent memory where I said “Ugg, what a terrible move.” Which is more than I can say for many teams (including the Red Sox, for that matter, who I think is better run than SF). They’ve also given up their tendency to sign aging vets just before they collapse.

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    • Nick says:

      John – Jealous Fan of Inferior Organization

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  3. TacticalBear says:

    Brayan Villareal

    Upside: Shutdown power righty

    Downside: Brayan VIllareal

    +31 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • tz says:

      This comment makes the “Fringe Five Most Compellingly Great Understated Internet Comments” list for 2013.

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    • Paul says:

      All he does here is clear the 40 man roster spot to add Iglesias AND mystery player (to replace Garcia). He recently hurt his thumb after “slipping in the shower.” And as you noted, he’s Brayan Villareal.

      Villareal has zero value. This makes me think Dombrowski is not done.

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    • Excelsior says:

      You guessed it — Frank Stallone.

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  4. JLRC says:

    Garcia is the best prospect to move at this deadline so far. You should also mention the money — while the BoSox should have no problems absorbing the money owed on Peavy, the savings for the White Sox are big and may well lead them to have the flexibility to send money on some more deals tomorrow/in the future. $20M savings for ChiSox is a fairly big component of the deal; pair that with getting Baseball America’s #74 prospect entering the season and they did pretty well.

    To me, the Tigers did not need to give up Avisail to get Iglesias. They are in a completely different league prospect-wise, though you’ve obviously described how Iglesias may have a bit higher floor with that amazing defense. They got extorted a bit because everyone knew they were desperate.

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    • Johnnynewguy says:

      Garcia is not the best prospect to be moved at the deadline. Mike Olt is. Baseball America ranks his as the 22nd best prospect. 22 is way higher than 74.

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      • Izzy says:

        “22 is way higher than 74″. Only in the great sport of baseball is this a technically accurate answer.

        +33 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Alyosha says:

        That’s a bit dishonest. Olt will move down due to a not tremendous year. Mid-season, Sickels had Olt at about 80 (not the highest rated prospect even in the Garza trade). There’s certainly variability here, but Olt is no longer considered a top 25 prospect.

        +9 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • sdflnk says:

        It’s a good thing time hasn’t elapsed since that ranking.

        Otherwise BA might have done something crazy like dropped him to say, 44, in their midseason rankings.

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  5. Jeff says:

    Yeah, Jeff Sullivan, renowned Red Sox knob-slobberer…

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  6. Antonio Bananas says:

    I like this move. Question though, is Iglesias a better defensive SS than Andrelton Simmons?

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    • Brian Cashman says:

      No he is not.

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    • Joe says:

      Iglesias is rated as having 80 glove on the scoring scale. what more could you want?

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      • Timmy says:

        Iglesias should basically be penciled in as the glove winner for the foreseeable future in the AL. Knowing the voters though, I bet Bogaerts will probably win the award more because he has superior offense.

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        • Bill says:

          Only if you think Machado stays at third.

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        • Ben Hall says:

          Machado’s glove is not great for a shortstop. It is great for a third baseman. Not for a shortstop. Doesn’t matter because he’s a great hitter.

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        • boog powell bbq says:

          Source on that, ben hall?

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        • STEALTH says:

          He played a decent SS, but there were questions of him moving to 3B eventually, not unlike Bogaerts or Baez (though I would have rated Machado ahead of those two defensively). Then, when Machado did get called up, he got moved to 3B while Hardy stayed at SS. If Machado had been a GG caliber SS prospect like Iglesias oe Simmons, Hardy would’ve slid to third.

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        • Pitnick says:

          I don’t know much about the Machado situation specifically, Stealth, but that’s not necessarily true. Sometimes veterans or guys who have been on a team longer will get the nod at a tougher position just out of respect or seniority. See: McCutchen staying in CF after Marte came up, or Pagan keeping CF with the superior Blanco and Torres in the corners.

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        • Kevin says:

          Iglesias was slid over to third even though he is a better defensive SS than Drew. I’ll have to agree with Pitnick here, veterans are sometimes given preference, even if it’s not the best fit on the field.

          Hell look at Jeter, he wouldn’t move so ARod ended up moving to 3rd, even though at the time, he was the better defensive SS.

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        • Savin Hillbilly says:

          A good example of what Pitnick is talking about is….Jose Iglesias 2013. He’s clearly a better defensive SS than Stephen Drew (though Drew is pretty good), yet he slid over to third when both were in the lineup. Why? Because Drew is a veteran and Iglesias is not. Who said baseball is always rational?

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      • Nick says:

        Iglesias has better range than Simmons, and probably the best hands ever. Simmons has a better arm but Iglesias is no slouch there either.

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    • Jason B says:

      You knew if there was a slick-fielding SS on the move, the conversation would eventually turn to AAAAAASIMMONSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!! AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADERPDERPDERPNOMNOMNOM

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      • Antonio Bananas says:

        Which is a compliment to Simmons. Should have brought up Brendan Ryan too.

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      • deadpool says:

        I’m a Braves fan, and I think the Simmons love gets overdone, but one person has said Simmons is better without discussing it. Its pretty natural to compare two guys who have both been referred to as the best defensive SS in their age group.

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  7. Rippers says:

    Rick Hahn is a terrible GM.

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    • Dayton Moore says:

      Hey there..

      +26 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Froglegs Jackson says:

      He’s been the White Sox GM for 7 months. It’s waaaay too early to make statements like this.

      +13 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Pale Hose Kyle says:

        Yes. And he has a long, long road to get the farm system to where it needs to be. I think the next test is how will he bolster his position players in the offseason.

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    • Paul says:

      I’d say clearing that salary and getting back a legit Top 100 player (albeit a very raw one) for Peavy is pretty solid. Too bad Peavy’s salary was pretty much glossed over in the article. He makes a lot more than Garza, and not that much less than Lee (except for 2015).

      +7 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • MikeS says:

      Why? I figured he could either clear salary or get prospects. He managed to do both.

      Could he have gotten better prospects if he sent $19M with Peavy? Sure. But to get someone to take a frequently injured but good pitcher, absorb all the salary and get back 4 prospects, one of whom is a top 100 or maybe top 50 level guy? It’s not going to turn them around overnight, but it’s not bad.

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  8. Ruki Motomiya says:

    Good trade. Like Peavy, less cost than Lee without too big of a drop in production even if Peavy is a pitcher for a pitcher’s park…I like this deal a lot.

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    • Phils_Goodman says:

      Since 2010:

      Cliff Lee RA9 Wins — 21
      Jake Peavy RA9 Wins — 8.6

      That looks like a big difference in production to me.

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      • Eminor3rd says:

        Then factor in all of the research about how little of a difference a player makes in the final two months of the season. Then compare the much smaller difference between Peavy and Lee over that same time frame.

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        • Hank says:

          Pretty sure both Lee and Peavy are under contract for more than the next 2 months and the acquiring team might be getting more than 2 months of production out of them.

          Why would you only consider this year?

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  9. TradeFan says:

    As stated in other articles, Peavy will also be eligible for a qualifying offer next year if he pitches well. So the Sox might get a compensatory pick next year.

    If Peavy pitches well (enough), Iglesias turns into a sandwich pick between the 1st and 2nd round of 2014 and this turns into a huge coup for the Sox.

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  10. James says:

    Free Xander

    +12 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Spit Ball says:

      With Snyder left holding the glove at third we may see him do a Machado and switch over to third for the year depending on what they wanna do with Middlebrooks. It seems to me that unless they want to bring up a no hit bat for the bench, Bogaerts would be the answer since he can play third. He’s hit at every level and my guess is the Sox hope Xander comes up and pulls an OPS of 800. Then they have in essence grabbed a starter and a bat for the playoff push. They might call Middlebrooks back up but I don’t know who is going to back up at shortstop.

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  11. Jim says:

    The Red Sox could have had Lee on a short term deal that is below his real value and they decided to go dumpster diving instead. Peavy is not a good pitcher, he is straight average in just about every way. The Sox didn’t give up much true, but they didn’t get much in return either, so you get what you pay for.

    I have to give some kudos to Rube for sticking to his guns and not caving on a lesser deal. Lee will have plenty of value this coming offseason with the dreadful FA market for SP. Some GM will wise up and realize that 2 years for an elite SP is a pretty damn good deal. Clearly Ben isn’t that smart.

    -38 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Spit Ball says:

      Speaking from Red Sox Nation everyone would have loved to have Lee. Just not for Boegarts and two of Bradley, Owens, Barnes, Ranaudo. So now we have followed a Dempster dive, with a Dumpster dive.

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    • SiddFinch says:

      It would have been absolute insanity to give the Phillies what they wanted for Lee and his contract. As a BoSox fan, I would absolutely hate to have Cliff Lee + $25mil/year without Bogaerts and Bradley Jr waiting in the wings. Lee is owed the rest of this year’s $25 mil, $25 mil next year, $25 mil the year after that, and then a $12.5 mil buyout if the club doesn’t take the $27.5 mil option. Are you kidding me?

      It’s not worth giving up future cornerstones for a guy that expensive who is turning 35 in August. Take Iglesias, give me Peavy, and I’ll see you in October.

      +6 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Matt says:

      Jake Peavy is not Cliff Lee but he is certainly not a “dumpster dive.”

      +9 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Timmy says:

      Cliff lee is NOT on a below market contract. He is on an above market contract. He made, 11 million in 2011, so the contract is back loaded. If Lee was put on waivers, he might possibility pass through waivers, though the Red Sox or Rangers might claim him. No GM is going to take on that contract and give up top prospects.

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      • Steve says:

        We know this isn’t true because he was put on waivers last year and was claimed by the Dodgers. And he was owed an additional $25M a year ago.

        Plenty of teams would claim Lee for nothing but cash (a lot of it, granted).

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    • Jason B says:

      “Peavy is not a good pitcher”

      Aaaaand everyone can stop reading at this point, downvote the asinine comment, and move right along with their day.

      +11 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Antonio Bananas says:

      Kudos to Rub for hanging onto Lee, probably until he’s untraceable and wasting more time and money because he’s delusional about their 2014 chances. As a Braves fan that is. Could have gotten a decent haul for Utley, Rollins, young, papelbon, and Lee. Then used the savings to make a few good FA signings (you know, what the BoSox did).

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  12. miketroutfan says:

    This trade pretty much punches a ticket to first place or the red sox and last place for the white sox. With the offense they have a rotation of Lester-Peavy-Lackey-Doubront-Dempster doesn’t look bad at all, especially with Buchholz returning in a few weeks.

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    • Joe says:

      White Sox were already in last place, and frankly as a White Sox fan I’m very happy to see us get a very high draft pick this year; it’s not like the extra 2 wins a half season of Peavy is worth would make a difference other than in worsening our draft stock some.

      (That said I wouldn’t mind winning more games than the Cubs this year, but even that seems out of reach =/ )

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      • steex says:

        If I didn’t know better, Robin’s use of Donnie Veal in meaningful situations would suggest to me that the White Sox are actively trying to improve their 2014 draft position.

        +7 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jason B says:

      “This trade pretty much punches a ticket to first place or the red sox”

      Incorrect.

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  13. boog powell bbq says:

    Since 2011, Peavy’s SIERA ranks him around the following guys:
    Lynn, Samardjzia, Burnett, Latos, Blanton, Haren.

    I admit, I’m surprised he rates out this well.

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    • Matt says:

      SIERA is also within 0.2 points of James Shields, Anibal Sanchez, Gio Gonzalez, Matt Cain, and Johnny Cueto.
      FIP- (also since 2011) is right alongside Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, David Price, Jered Weaver.
      Both impressive lists.

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    • Jason B says:

      Guys it was already decided above that he was not a good pitcher. Maybe you missed that.

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    • Otter says:

      Peavy’s good and has been good for the Sox; he’s just been injured too often for most not on the South Side of Chicago to realize.

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  14. LaLoosh says:

    Find it hard to believe the DBacks didn’t make a better offer for Peavy. They were supposedly involved yesterday afternoon. I like Garcia’s upside but this is a fairly weak return for Peavy imo.

    As far as the Tigers, I’m not even sure that Iglesias is better than the kids in the Tigers system, Suarez or Perez. Weird panic-type move by the Tigers.

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    • LaLoosh says:

      and it doesn’t even address their biggest need – bullpen.

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      • the fume says:

        I don’t know, their back 3 now have WHIP of 0.93, 0.98, and 1.02. And going 5 deep in the rotation, the other guys aren’t too relevant.

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    • the fume says:

      Garcia certainly has tons of power, but Iglesias has just as much defense. The Tigers were in a weird position, in that they had Nick C. and Avi G. and no real need for either this year and only room for 1 next year. Their only needs were relievers and a long-term shortstop, and those guys were too valuable to trade for a reliever. I think such a trade was almost inevitable, and I think Iglesias is good value. And I love Garcia’s potential.

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  15. Jack says:

    Doesn’t Peavy have a player option for 2015? Doesn’t that lower his value considerably?

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    • Timmy says:

      It’s a vesting option, and he isn’t going to pitch enough innings for it to vest.

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    • Joe says:

      It’s a vesting option, requiring 400IP in 2013-2014 and 190 in 2014. I doubt that will happen at this point given the time he’s missed (And given that he’s a very good pitcher who has injury problems, if he does hit 200IP next year plus healthy the remainder of this year, that’s not a bad deal anyway – $15MM for a 3-4 WAR pitcher when healthy.)

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    • LaLoosh says:

      yeah it triggers with 400 IP in ’13 and ’14 and that’s not going to happen with just 80 IP thus far in ’13. He may get to 150 this year.

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    • LaLoosh says:

      and assuming he stays healthy next year the Sox are almost g’teed to make him a QO after next season and then collect a sand pick for him when he departs. Ben Cherington’s best deal by far.

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      • Mike G says:

        This is a good deal, but it doesn’t come close to dumping a quarter billion in salary and still getting real prospects back (Webster and RDLR).

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        • LaLoosh says:

          good point.

          He’s made some boners tho.. At least he’s gotten back on the horse. Nothing worse than the teams like the Mets, Twins, Pads, and M’s who are too timid to do anything.

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      • Paul says:

        Are you sure they will want to make a qualifying offer to a guy whose vesting option did not kick in because he gets hurt a lot, the qualifying offer which is the value of the vesting option? Going into his age 34 season where he is extremely unlikely to get anywhere near the roughly $15m the qualifying offer will be worth? He’d be a damn fool not to take that and be a Sox for 2015.

        I like the deal for the Sox, but you might want to dial back the enthusiasm on this front as it’s a VERY low probability outcome.

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        • Chris K says:

          As the White Sox are an older team than the Red Sox, I will assume you were referring to the White Sox. I agree that it is a good deal for the White Sox; I disagree with your contention that he would be a damn fool to take a qualifying offer from the White Sox.

          To begin with, the White Sox will not be in a position to make him a qualifying offer. The team in a position to be making a qualified offer will, in fact, be the Red Sox. I understand your confusion, what with this arrogant Chicago sports fans and Midwest-biased national media constantly referring to their team simply as the “Sox” in a deal involving multiple Sox franchises. It’s a good thing that nobody in Boston is so solipsistic to do that.

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  16. suicide squeeze says:

    The Red Sox actually lost Little about a decade ago :)

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  17. Mike G says:

    Garcia is as much the next Miggy as every short, hard throwing, Dominican pitcher is the next Pedro.

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  18. Joe R says:

    I argue the Red Sox barely even put a dent in future plans. There’s tons of org depth on the left side of the infield, and giving up Iglesias is a clear sign that the Red Sox think enough of Bogaerts’ defense to stick at SS (the fact that he’s still playing SS at AAA is another sign).

    Iglesias has been an incredibly overrated played in the Red Sox system for years; it was great that the Red Sox leveraged his BABIP-fueled hot start to preserve their more important prospects. When his grounders aren’t finding gaps, he’s a total black hole in the lineup.

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    • Doug Lampert says:

      I’m pretty sure the Tigers KNOW his bat is not going to be that much better than a NL-pitcher’s bat. They simply don’t care at this point, they’re on a streach run and are about to lose their SS from an infield largely made of players little better on defense than ornamental statues holding gloves. If they had any decent fielding alternatives who could hit they’d be using them.

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      • Joe R says:

        I’m just glad he’s gone. I was sure the Red Sox missed the boat with regards to netting any real return on Iglesias when it became obvious he had an extremely low ceiling (but was still a top 100 prospect for some reason). I’ve never been sold on Iglesias being an important piece.

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  19. Paul says:

    I think this is a great deal for the Tigers and they are the clear winners here. And I’m not real high on Iglesias, but at least really like the tools from Garcia. With Jackson in CF and Nick Castellanos (who is a better prospect IMO than Bogaerts), the two toolsy OFers they dealt the past few days were just org. depth. And they picked up a guy at SS who will be a huge upgrade defensively and plug a gaping hole when Peralta gets suspended today. They had absolutely nothing to replace him with (they do have a toolsy AA shortstop who is not ready), and now they can just plug Iglesias right in. They don’t need the offense since they have a couple decent hitters in that lineup, and I have a feeling V-Mart will be hooked up to the juvenation machine soon.

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    • the fume says:

      Yep, they made a trade they almost had to make anyways in the off-season a few months early because of Peralta.

      I think the FO is giving a big sigh of relief this morning that they didn’t have to make a lopsided trade to cover for Jhonny, nor do they get stuck with Santiago or some middling AA guy at shortstop.

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    • SaladFingers says:

      Obvious Tigers fan is obvious.

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    • James says:

      Castellanos is a better prospect than bogaerts only if you’re a tigers fan.

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      • Paul says:

        Not a Tigers fan. From what I see of Castellanos you’re talking about a players who can carry another 20 pounds of muscle. He reminds me a lot of Troy Glaus in body type. He has great batspeed, improved plate discipline, and already understands how to generate backspin. I think the rankings that have him around the 10-15 range are absurd, and that he’ll be a better player than Myers, who was a top 5 last year. He was a good enough fielder at 3B to move back there at some point, which just adds to his value.

        Having said all that, I love Wil Myers. And Bogaerts. But I would be surprised to see Bogaerts hit 20 HRs in a season before he’s 27 and has been moved to 3B. That’s if he’s not a 3B right now, which scouts are split on. He’s a very, very smooth hitter who could be similar to Machado, so he’s very talented and I think he’ll be a very good major league player and soon.

        I just think that Castellanos’ power upside, along with a very good hit tool to hit for high avg., give him a chance for 35+ HRs in his prime. If the pitcher dominance trend continues the way it is, or just plateus from here, those guys are really, really valuable.

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      • Mike says:

        Castellanos will provide more value for the Tigers than Bogaerts will provide … for the Tigers.

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      • Eric Feczko says:

        @Paul:

        Maybe. I think both are great prospects, but I’d rank Xander a bit higher at this present moment. I would point out that both players at of similar size (6-4, vs 6-3), and neither are done growing.

        For the record Boegarts has had a better ISO at every step of his career than Castellanos, but I would agree that much of that distinction may relate to approach (and not raw power). Castellanos looked pretty lost at the plate last year, but has tremendously improved his approach this year; regardless, Boegarts may still be the better overall hitter right now, despite the improvement by Nick.

        Potential, however, is different from floor. Castellanos could put up 35 HR seasons, or he could fall apart as a hitter. If he does reach 35 HR potential, I’d agree that he’d be better, but such power realization is difficult to predict. I just see Xander as a more sure thing right now, since he has had a better approach by eye and by stats at every level of his career.

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        • Paul says:

          There is no question that Xander is the more sure thing right now. His advanced approach when I saw him in both last year’s and this year’s Futures Games was impressive. Last year he and Machado looked like men among boys.

          But Castellanos jumped out in a different way in last year’s game. I had always read about him being very raw and thin, and video from his first season in low A showed a guy who was so rail thin he looked sick or something. I was not on him at all. Until I saw him turn around two very good fastballs in that game, the home run to CF being the most impressive. And in post-game interviews he had clearly already added 20 pounds with plenty more to go.

          I think people are vastly under-selling Nick’s power tool right now. No question he has a ways to go, but for me the tool is elite combined with a very good hit tool. Xander is pretty much plug n’ play, just needs reps. But he strikes me as more of a very high avg., solid-to-good power guy. That’s obviously a guy you just write in for 10 years as SS or until he enters Jeter territory defensively. People like to comp him to Longoria, but I think he might have more power and won’t strike out as much. No question that’s a lower probability outcome than Xander being a 140 RC+ guy.

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  20. tom b says:

    This article went to great lengths to avoid using any real data that would show how horrible this move is for Boston. Peavy is mediocre at best. They have severely down-graded their 3b situation. Piss poor evaluation by the standards of this website.

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    • Paul says:

      While taking on about $20m between now and next October was clearly glossed over, calling Peavy a mediocre at best player is silly.

      I like the deal for the Sox because I like Peavy (because he is good). But if I’m a Sox fan I would be a little uncomfortable with the options not just at 3B going forward, but at SS if Drew gets hurt (not an unlikely scenario). Makes me wonder if we don’t see a deal for a Michael Young still, or at a minimum a Jamey Carroll utility type.

      There are too many low probability outcomes that have to all be right for this deal to work as designed (Middlebrooks suddenly being good, Drew not getting hurt, Peavy not getting hurt, a rookie SS who might really be a 3B succeeding despite being young and spending ten minutes in AAA).

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    • Antonio Bananas says:

      And your house republican way of responding was great! *data shown doesn’t match your perception* “didn’t show any data, I’m not going to say how or suggest anything, but I don’t like it”.

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    • James says:

      Where is your data?

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    • Eric Feczko says:

      Lot of pissed off Phillies fans commenting on how this is bad for Boston. Here’s some data:

      Iglesias has had 300 plate appearances in majors. In that time, his slash line is 280/333/356, which is good for a .689 OPS. This is essentially his line at AA when he was 20 years old.
      His BABIP is 0.376, with 10 percent infield hits, and a 16% pop-outs. Otherwise he is a groundball hitter, with 56% of his balls-in-play being groundballs. Based on his remaining stats (18% LD and 25% GB) one would expect his BABIP to be around .320. Optimistically, I would imagine his slash line to be around 270/310/340, or good for a 650 OPS; a 290 wOBA, and given his baserunning a wRC+ around 80.

      By eye, his swing gets long at times for a guy with little power, and he appears overmatched at the plate; when pitchers were throwing fastballs down the middle, he could hit them. Now that pitchers have adjusted over the past month, his line is more like 230/260/290. Pessimistically he may be a 270 wOBA or a wRC+ 75 hitter.

      That being said, his shortstop defense is so good, that he can still provide great value to the right team. The red sox have Stephen Drew and Bogaerts, who will likely provide better value now than Iglesias.
      Of course, you thought this was a 3rd base downgrade, which is patently ridiculous. Iglesias has looked average-ish at 3rd base and every defensive metric backs this up. The red sox have Will Middlebrooks, who already is at least average defensively at third and is hitting a 779 OPS in AAA, and Xander Boegarts, who could slide over to third and has put up an 800 OPS at every level of the system.

      Simply put, the Red Sox sold high on Iglesias’ batting average, and have enough depth in the farm system to easily overcome the loss of Iglesias, if not field a better team than they have currently. However, Detroit (due to the Peralta situation) needed a shortstop, and they got one. Fair deal for Detroit, good deal for the Red Sox.

      As for Peavy, he currently has the best K/BB ratio of all the Red Sox starters, and has allowed only 74 hits in 80 innings. His one problem is that he lets up too many deep balls to left-handed hitters (21 extra base hits to lefties vs 9 to righties). Given that teams like the Tigers, Rays, Orioles are right-handed hitters, and given that fenway has a larger RF than LF, this is a good fit for the Red Sox. Oh, and I forgot that the Red Sox defenders, Ellsbury and Victorino, are superior to the White Sox outfielders: Rios and De Aza. Again, this is backed up by most fielding metrics you can name.
      Finally all of this data is backed up by Peavy’s xFIP, which is 3.68 (better than Lester’s 3.89).

      Is that enough data for you? Of course, if you are a Phillies fan, you probably think that not.

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  21. Antonio Bananas says:

    So Matt Garza gets Olt and Grimm, Peavy gets Iglesias and Garcia, both in situations where teams are looking to upgrade their roster for the playoffs. Shields gets Meyers, Odorizzi, and the lottery ticket Mike Montgomery. Dayton Moore got hosed.

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    • Paul says:

      One game over .500 at the latest point in the season in 10 years says hi.

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      • Antonio Bananas says:

        Still missing the playoffs and only getting 2 years of Shields, sacrificing 6 cheap years of Meyers/Odorizzi (increasing chances in more years) says who gives a shit?

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        • Antonio Bananas says:

          Unless the ultimate goal is simply a winning season before falling back into complete obscurity. In which case, congratulations!

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    • Ruki Motomiya says:

      James Shields FIP the past 3 years:
      2013: 3.53 / 2.8 Fangraphs WAR
      2012: 3.47 / 3.9 FanGraphs WAR
      2011: 3.42 / 4.5 FanGraphs WAR

      Matt Garza’s FIP the past 3 years:
      2013: 3.65 / 1.3 FanGraphs WAR
      2012: 4.17 (103 2/3rds IP) / 1.2 FanGraphs WAR
      2011: 2.97 / 4.9 FanGraphs WAR

      Jake Peavy’s FIP the past 3 years:
      2013: 4.09 / 1.2 FanGraphs WAR
      2012: 3.73 / 4.4 FanGraphs WAR
      2011: 3.21 (111 2/3rds IP) / 3.1 FanGraphs WAR

      Shields is quite clearly the best pitcher here, as he has had the best FIP 2 years going and has not missed a season due to injury in any of those years compared to Peavy/Garza (If you go career, Shields has gone over 000 IP every year since his rookie year, a feat Peavy has done in less then half of his career years, and only once since 2007 and which Garza has only done twice in his career).

      So, while you can argue the Royals got fleeced because they should not have been buying people, Shields is quite clearly a much better pitcher than Garza and a superior pitcher to Peavy, and ergo should be expected to get more in a trade.

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      • Eric Feczko says:

        Not, not clear at all.
        Peavy’s pitched 80 innings this year, which does not make FIP a reliable stat to follow. It also strongly affects WAR. Comparing 220 innings of shields in 2011,2012 (140+ in 2013) to Peavy is simply ridiculous in terms of projecting talent going forward.

        Jake Peavy has a slower fastball (~90 MPH), but has had increasing strikeout rates this year (8.5) relative to the past two years. Unusually, James Shields has had the opposite happened, and 2 MPH increase in velocity coupled with a decrease strikeout rate relative to the last two years (~7.5).

        Peavy walks fewer batters, but allows more flyballs and homeruns than shields. His higher FIP may result from being in a homerun-friendly park, which fenway is less. Furthermore, Peavy’s recent injury was a rib fracture, which is not predictive of future arm-related injuries. Overall, I’d probably put them in the same tier of talent.

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        • Paul says:

          James Shields’ contract over those two years is one of the more team-friendly deals in baseball. While Peavy did not have an arm injury, and Garza’s injuries are only in the past two years, when you start getting injured and miss significant time and your south of 30, the probability is for it to continue. And the ROI is clearly less when you’re paying a guy double for half a season that you’re paying a better-ish player for a full season, no?

          I’m surprised anybody is even trying to argue the point. You don’t have to hate Jake Peavy to accept that picking him up is quite a roll of the dice. On the other hand, Shields is a very sure thing on a team friendly deal, and the Royals cannot attract those guys as free agents (not to mention that he would cost a lot more on the open market). Those are guys you don’t have any choice but to pay up for. It’s worked out pretty well for them now that they’re playing Lough over Frenchy. It’s true that in many respects the Royals cannot get out of their own way. But getting James Shields for Myers was a no-brainer, and I love Wil Myers.

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        • Ruki Motomiya says:

          Shields has 11.2 WAR over those 3 seasons. Peavy has 8.7. You’re saying that in those innings, he’d have to make about 3.5 WAR…and health IS, if not a skill, something that is important for value, because you can’t just replace a guy like Peavy, Shields or even Garza from the minors easily. Peavy has shown to be fragile and, while you can say it isn’t predictive of future arm-related injuries, the fact that Peavy keeps getting injured might mean he is just fragile genetically or whatnot.

          Even if you use xFIP to compare them, Shields comes out with 3.25 (2011), 3.24 (2012) and 3.65 (2013) compared to Peavy’s 3.52 (2011), 3.99 (2012) and 3.68 (2013)…in fact, Peavy becomes worse, because he has allowed fewer flyballs in 2 of the last 3 years.

          Shield’s BB/9 has been 2.35 (2011), 2.29 (2012( and 2.54 (2013): BB% 6.7% (20133), 6.1% (2012) and 6.8% (2013). Peavy has BB/9s of 1.93 (2011), 2.01 (2012) and 1.91 (2013) for a BB% of 5.1% (2011), 5.6% (2012) and 5.3% (2013). So while Peavy does walk less people, Shields has posted a lower strikeout rate this year, but in previous years has clearly bettered Peavy, unless you decide to go way back to 2009 (Which is really just too long ago to say Peavy still has that skill level).

          Shields is also one year younger than Peavy.

          With lower numbers by both traditional and sabermetric calculations, less of an injury history, a higher K/9 and K% from 2010-2012 (With 2013 being oddly lower, although Peavy’s sample size is 80 innings), the only argument I can see is “Small sample size”…which given Peavy has played 111+ innings once since 2008 (Not saying “full season” so as to include the 173 innings of 2008), can be made as an argument against him as well. Also, Shields has a higher GB%. Shields is simply a tier higher than Peavy.

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        • Eric Feczko says:

          @Riki:
          Again, your analysis does not make a clear cut argument for one pitcher being better than another. My point isn’t that Peavy is some 2007 version of himself. My point is that Shields is in the same tier as recent Peavy.

          For starters, the difference in 3.5 WAR can be traced to a difference of 210 IP between Peavy and Shields. In 210 innings in 2012 (his most reecent year), Peavy gained 4.4 WAR. So yes, the difference is in innings and not performance.
          Regarding health, the recent injuries Peavy had were not arm related, so the likelihood of them happening to any pitcher is roughly equivalent. Interestingly, pitchers seem to suffer from fewer injuries between their 32-35 years (nice article on pitcher injuries in fangraphs on this). This effect is likely survivor’s bias, but there’s no reason to think Peavy should be excluded from this group.

          Regarding recent performance, Shields has gone down a bit this year, however, whether that decrease in stats is greater than random noise is unclear. Nevertheless, Peavy is pitching right around his career average; the xFIP’s you allude to do not support your conclusion that Peavy is “getting worse”. If anything he looks to be improving from last year. The sample size is large enough, however, to say that Peavy is striking out more batters this year, and walking fewer, than Shields. They are not reliable enough to establish homerun rates.

          If Peavy regresses at all, he regresses better, not worse. In which case, that puts him a little better than Shields this year. I’m not saying he’s clearly better, all I’m saying is that they are on a very similar level.

          @Paul:

          Good point, I had not considered the favorable contract with Shields. To be fair, I’m more surprised by how little the red sox paid for Peavy (though including Detroit’s contribution makes it sensible from the White Sox perspective), than by how much the Royals paid for Shields. I should point out that Peavy is eligible for a qualifying offer next year, so the red sox could net a sandwich pick in the draft from this trade, which offsets somewhat the difference in contracts.

          In any case, the difference in prospect value is enormous I think. Meyers’ floor is above Iglesias’ ceiling. Furthermore, you really think Lough is equivalent to Meyers? Remember that Iglesias was dealt from a position of strength for the red sox (Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Marrero, and Bogaerts).

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        • Eric Feczko says:

          @Riki:

          Oh, and Shields is only six/seven months younger than Peavy. The age is really not much of a difference.

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        • Antonio Bananas says:

          My point isn’t that Shields isn’t the best pitcher of the group. He is, but he’s not as much better than the prospect package given up, especially when you consider how much more significant the rangers and Red Sox added wins were as opposed to KCs. Plus how little it hurts texas and Boston’s future hopes as opposed to KCs.

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  22. Mike Green says:

    Iglesias is 23 years old. There is a decent chance that while his batting average falls, his W rate improves and he still ends up with an OBP around .340. With his defensive skills, that will make for a fine player.

    I don’t agree with the suggestion that the Sox have lost little. That is true only if Bogaerts is healthy and performs in a way suggested by his minor league performance.

    It may very well be a good deal for the Red Sox, but the calculus seems to me to be more complicated that suggested here, leaving aside questions about the Red Sox current 3B situation.

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    • Paul says:

      Clearly you hate the Red Sox, are a Tigers fan, or worse (!), a Republican!

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    • Eric Feczko says:

      It’s possible. However, his walk rate was never particularly high at any minor league stop. His highest rate was around 6.8% at AAA. He would still need to hit about 300, and we don’t even know if he can maintain such a batting average yet.

      Furthermore, your logic contradicts itself. You cannot make the argument that Iglesias could improve, but Xander cannot. If Iglesias can get better, all the more so that a 20 year-old, who has hit at a high-level every single year of his professional career, could improve more.

      I agree that the calculus is a bit more complicated; however, such complexity makes the red sox part of the bargain more sensible. The red sox have Middlebrooks and Cecchini at third right now, and a defensive-elite shortstop in Marrero. To the red sox, Iglesias was expendable and it was a great time to sell high.

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  23. Jay29 says:

    I look forward to the long, puzzling career of Clueless Rondon.

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  24. danwatson19 says:

    How does this move affect Peavy’s fantasy value? Obviously he should get a few more wins, and I guess the Sox are a somewhat better defensive team, but how does Fenway’s outfield play vs US Cellular’s?

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  25. jorgesca says:

    While it might be a good trade for the Red Sox, Tigers and maybe White Sox, it is not really addressing a WS run. The RS have a nice team, might even end up with the best record, but they won’t make it past the first round. That’s not even counting that I don’t think Peavy will ever regain last year’s level and that there still might be something wrong with him (healthwise).

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    • Joe R says:

      1) What?
      2) Using log5 win probability and reverse binomial distributions (naive assumptions, but still), a 60 win team beats a 100 win team in a 5 game series 12.25% of the time. Saying a team “won’t” make it past a round is a pretty bold assumption. Tell that to the 2004/2006 Cardinals.

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      • Michael R says:

        Or tell that to the 04 Red Sox in the ALCS, the 07 Red Sox in the ALCS and the 08 Red Sox down 3 games to 1 only to lose in the 7th game. People said they would never win those series, but then they went on to sweep the Cardinals and the Rockies in the WS.

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  26. Eric Feczko says:

    Just want to point out that this is a pretty good deal for all three teams involved.

    Detroit got a low-cost replacement for Peralta when he gets suspended, and they dealt an outfielder that was being blocked by others in the farm. As others have noted, their offense can absorb a black hole at shortstop, and they need the defense more than other teams.

    The White Sox got a potentially good player in Garcia AND cut their payroll by 14 million. For the White Sox, 14 million is roughly 11 percent of their total payroll. That sort of flexibility can enable them to pick up a few key roles in free agency next year, and with the emergence of Sale and Quintata, was not an essential piece for them.

    The Red Sox got a much-needed starting pitcher, and sold high on a light-hitting shortstop that was blocking potentially better players.

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