Red Sox Should Recall Cook For Some Relief
The Red Sox have to decide toda whether or not to call up Aaron Cook from Pawtucket. The former Rockies starter signed a non-guaranteed, minor league deal with the Red Sox this offseason, but negotiated in an opt-out clause. The clause offered the 33-year old Cook some form of a guarantee on a non-guaranteed deal: if he wasn’t on the major league roster by May 1, he could elect free agency and latch on with another team willing to give him a better opportunity.
With the deadline fast approaching, the decision is really a no-brainer that the Red Sox should call him up. He hasn’t exactly been tearing up the International League, but he has done what he always does: limit walks and keep the ball on the ground. If healthy after two straight injury-plagued campaigns, he could be a big boon to the Red Sox pitching staff.
However, his real benefit to the Red Sox right now is as a reliever. Nowhere in his contract does it stipulate that the May 1 call-up must automatically push him into the rotation, and the Red Sox could best utilize his elite groundballing status as a means of helping to stabilize a messy relief corps.
The Red Sox rotation, while rather poor at preventing runs in the early going, is finally starting to hit its stride. The unit has the fourth-worst ERA in the American League at 5.13, but a 4.22 SIERA that fares more favorably.
The rotation has the second-highest walk rate in the league at 9.4 percent and a below average 1.8 K/BB ratio. Red Sox starters have induced grounders at a solid 46 percent clip, but they have struggled mightily with runners on base.
Overall, the Red Sox rotation has a 70 percent strand rate, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. With men on base, their starters have allowed a .397 wOBA against, and a .385 wOBA against with runners in scoring position. Both are league worsts and the major reason for the relatively ugly run-prevention marks.
But the situation is improving, and the rotation is essentially set. With Jon Lester and Josh Beckett at the front, Clay Buchholz behind him, and Daniel Bard and Felix Doubront occupying the last two spots, there isn’t any room for another starter. Doubront and Bard have been bright spots and shouldn’t be moved, while Lester and Beckett are bound to improve their peripherals as the season progresses. Plus, Daisuke Matsuzaka may return rather soon, and he is reportedly not a bullpen option.
Sure, the Red Sox could give Cook a few starts, but they would have to implement one of a few scenarios. They could opt for a six-man rotation with Cook at the tail-end. They could use Cook as a Sunday starter and just start him that day each week. They could “game” Clay Buchholz a bit and allow him to “work out struggles” in the minors for a few weeks. Or they could push Bard back to the bullpen. None of those seems very beneficial to the team so the best course of action is to use Cook as a reliever.
The Sox bullpen has been an absolute mess and could use someone that has an elite skill in some area. The Red Sox bullpen has a league worst 6.34 ERA. It has the third worst strand rate at 66 percent and the second worst BABIP at .328. Best laid plans didn’t come to fruition, either, as Bard moved to the rotation and Andrew Bailey got hurt before the season. Mark Melancon was demoted after seeing his ERA soar to 49.50. Alfedo Aceves has a 7.5 BB/9 and has struggled as a closer. The Sox should be trying anything and everything with respect to the bullpen right now, and Cook offers something that nobody else in the relief unit can offer: an elite skill.
No, groundballs aren’t as helpful as strikeouts, as the defense has to get involved, but Cook has a 57 percent career groundball rate that ranks sixth best of all time (or at least as long as records have been kept). In a tight spot in the sixth or seventh inning, with runners on first and second and nobody out, Cook’s ability to induce grounders increases the Red Sox odds of turning a double play or escaping the situation with limited damage.
He doesn’t need to be the setup man and absolutely shouldn’t close games, but Cook costs very little at $1.5 million and is different than pitchers like Scott Elarton, Pat Misch, Dave Bush and the litany of other former big leaguers signed to minor league deals. Cook is worth a roster spot and is someone the Red Sox shouldn’t allow to elect free agency just because he can’t be used as a starter right away.
Stash him in the bullpen for a few weeks and give him a starting opportunity if a starter or two gets injured. Otherwise, let him offer relief when the situation dictates the need for a groundball. Few pitchers in baseball history have been better than a healthy Cook at getting those grounders.
Bobby Valentine has already said that, if Cook comes up, he will be used as a reliever. The only question is whether he’s be called up, be traded, or waive the opt-out. They’re not going to waste the depth, and they’re not going to use him as a starter.
Best guess, Cook gets called up as a reliever and replaces either Tazawa or Atchison. Tazawa’s got the higher upside, but he’s still optionable to my knowledge.
I’m really curious as to what the deal with Melancon is right now. It’s a small sample size, but he’s been solid in AAA since being demoted. The problem is that it just raises further questions about whether or not he’s just not capable of beating AL hitters or if he had some minor mechanical adjustment that needed to be made.
Not that it will happen, but I wish they could give Cook a shot in the rotation in lieu of Buchholz. Watching him now when compared to a couple of years ago it really looks like he’s lost “it.” I mean, his strikeout rate is just horrific at this point.
Buchholz looked pretty solid through six. Three walks, four hits, one earned run, five strikeouts. He was commanding his changeup well, something he hasn’t done all season. He clearly hit a wall and was gassed around the eighty pitch mark and that was pretty evident. If Valentine’s got the sense to get someone warming after he put the first two men on, he’s still got four batters and fourteen pitches to get that guy warmed before putting them in to face Reddick. If you throw a guy like Morales (Who’s been great against lefties so far) in there to face Reddick, we could be looking at a not-great but respectable 5BB, 6H, 3ER, 5K, 6.2 IP performance.
Buchholz has been struggling, yes, but he’s shown improvements in his last two starts, basically having that one blowup inning to go along with an otherwise solid performance (In his last four starts, the only one that he was giving up runs consistently was the start against the Yankees). This can easily be chalked up to rust from missing half the season last year.
Buch has had several starts like that, where he has been great through 6 and then completely blown up. It looks like a stamina issue or something, and the only way to fix that is to have him work through it.
That, and Cook isn’t good enough that you jeopardize Buch for.
Unless Buch gets his velocity back, I don’t think there’s any chance he posts a consistent FIP or xFIP under 4 in the AL East moving forward. Cook is by no means a great option but Clay has been that awful.
He had an acceptable start against the A’s for a while, but let’s keep in mind the A’s are a bottom 5 offense; they are a terrible benchmark.
Considering he missed half of last year, the idea that his velocity’s down due to rust isn’t out of the question. If he’s still showing diminished velocity come the time Matsuzaka’s ready to come back, DL him, but otherwise the smart thing to do long term (And while 4/5 of the rotation is performing well) is to ride it out and give him the chance to build back up.
Dice-K is exactly the reason I would hate to see Cook replace Buchholz for any time. Buchholz’s issues definitely look like rust problems. And as Jonathon said, if he’s still struggling by the time Dice-K is back (which looks to be pretty soon, he is really ahead of schedule last I checked), Dice-K is a MUCH better option in the rotation than Cook, problems walking guys or not. Cook is tricking everyone with his sub 2.00 ERA in AAA, but he’s really not great. I see him helping out in the bullpen possibly, but there’s no reason he should be starting.
I geuss they kinda have to put him in the bullpen because if they don’t he’s gonna be keeping the ball in the yard for the Orioles or Blue Jays against the Red Sox. My one concern is he is a guy that is gonna for the most part need to pitch “clean” innings as you always have to worry about Wild pitches, passed balls and stolen bases with sinkerballers. I Know his wild pitch counts are not that high in recent years but I am lleary about that with sinkerballers as I think alot more passed balls are called.
Is the Red Sox bullpen really that bad? Two of the stats you quoted are pretty much luck stats, particularly if you’re just taking a month of the season (the BABIP and strand rate). I’m honestly not convinced Cook would improve the bullpen that much. Who would he be replacing? Matt Albers was very good in flashes last year, but I guess he could conceivably be DFA’d. Not sure I’d prefer Cook to anyone else in the MLB pen right now though. Dude’s K/BB is almost 1 in AAA, and it shouldn’t be ignored that he’s been playing in front of a terrific defensive infield that, at least on its left side, could easily be a big step up from the big league club, with Jose Iglesias and Will Middlebrooks instead of Mike Aviles and Kevin Youkilis.
Probable victims to bring Cook up are either moving Tazawa back down or simply letting Padilla go. My money’s on Tazawa going down as it preserves depth best and despite his ugly surface numbers, Padilla’s peripherals have been good (An unsustainably high BAbip and HR/FB are inflating his numbers as well as that one awful outing against NY, his BB/9′s bleh but his K/9 and GB% are both solid).
As far as the defense goes, well, Youk’s having back problems and a DL stint isn’t out of the question. If that happens, Middlebrooks has good odds of getting a cup of coffee. Swapping him out for Youkilis makes an immense difference in the team’s infield defense (Gonzalez and Pedroia are elite defenders and Aviles has been better than anticipated). A fifteen day DL stint for Youkilis would give them ample opportunity to showcase Cook for a potential trade at the least.
Why would you get rid of Padilla for Cook though?
Padilla has actually been pretty good aside from one mess where nobody in the bullpen could stop the yankees from scoring.Padilla’s periphrials are also drastically better than Cook’s.
Cook was insurance incase Bard or Doubront couldn’t hack it. Its clear they can. Cook just isn’t good enough to lose one of the other bullpen guys (who, despite some rough games so far, are all a better chance to perform int the future)
Now, if they think Buchholz needs some time off, thats fine. But nobody should get DFAd for a guy who has a 3K/9 rate agains AAA hitters.
I specifically covered the fact Padilla hasn’t been as bad as his peripherals suggest. That said, being the oldest guy in the pen, he would be most likely to be cut (If anyone) as he doesn’t figure into the team’s long term plans.
That said, I think the sensible option is to option Tazawa back down in order to maintain depth.
Why would they ditch Padilla for Cook? They are obviously very different pitchers who go about their business very differently, but as far as the zero-upside long man who can start in a pinch thing goes, Padilla is a better version of Cook.
Also, my point was that the great left side of the infield in Pawtucket may well be inflating Cook’s numbers by depressing his BABIP, not that the Red Sox should replace Kevin Youkilis and Mike Aviles with Will Middlebrooks and Jose Iglesias to accommodate Aaron Cook.
Looks like Junichi Tazawa got sent down for Iglesias later today…? Anyway, I think it’s a legitimate possibility that Tazawa would be more effective than Cook either relieving or starting.
The “Sunday starter” thing really hasn’t worked since there stopped being doubleheaders. But since three of the Sox five-man rotation didn’t pitch 100 innings last year (none reached 200) – and one of them incurred a stress fracture – there’s a very, very good chance they can use Cook. They won’t repeat the Millwood mistake.
By rule, the Red Sox front office can also let Cook exercise his opt out and still have 2 days before putting him on their roster.
This would give them until their off day on Thursday to make a roster move just before Showalter brings his hot Orioles into town, allowing for the added time to see who and how their bullpen performs over the next few days at Fenway.
For the sake of depth, Tazawa optioned to AAA and Cook to the bullpen seems the most likely outcome.
cook could do well as a long reliever; might help his FB tick up a bit, only give batters one look at him, etc. not a bad plan
Why are you quoting small sample luck stats (low strand rate and high BABIP) as evidence of true skill level? This article makes almost no sense.
Also, Cook has a horrific 13/11 K/BB ratio in AAA. Not exactly the numbers of a guy about to be promoted.
o/u on number of IP Cook pitches for the Red Sox from this point forward: 5