This is awesome, although I know I’m not the 6th to say so. Good writes!

]]>I think I`ll be checking this sight out more just because of that. ]]>

Outright Win

Tampa Win Sox Loss = .18 * .05 = .009

+

One half of the sum of both tie scenarios

Tampa Win Sox Win = .18 * .95 = .171

Tampa Loss Sox Loss = .82 * .05 = .041

Total = .212

Divided by 2 = .106

Grand total = .115, or 11.5%, as he said.

This is the same formula I sketched out as I was reading this, and it worked for all the other numbers. It’s most likely that it was indeed a typo – 88.5% and 11.5% rounds to 89% and 11%, and if you transpose the figures that’s 81% and 19% (which was stated in the article).

I think Bernoulli is right, as is TL commenting on Slartibartfast’s comment.

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