Reshaping the Yankees Line-Up
The big topic of discussion before yesterday’s Yankees-Orioles game was whether Joe Girardi should move Alex Rodriguez down in the order so that Robinson Cano could hit third in the line-up. Girardi declined to make that change, but did have Rodriguez DH instead of play third, which seems to suggest that having Ibanez pinch-hit for him late in the game was premeditated and not simply a reaction to Rodriguez’s in-game struggles. Ibanez, of course, made Girardi look like a genius. So, now, what do the Yankees do about their line-up going forward?
In reality, we probably won’t get that answer today. The Orioles decided to swap out Chris Tillman for Joe Saunders, so Girardi’s going to go with his anti-LHP line-up today, and Rodriguez is clearly going to be part of that effort. Starting either Ibanez or Eric Chavez against a lefty isn’t a great idea, and the team doesn’t have any good right-handed alternatives, which is why Eduardo Nunez started at DH against Wei-Yin Chen. With Derek Jeter fouling a ball off his foot in Game Three, he very well could end-up DH’ing in Game Four, with Jayson Nix getting the start at shortstop. In some ways, Buck Showalter did Girardi a favor by starting Saunders, giving him an easy way out of the decision over whether to put A-Rod back in the line-up the day after he pinch hit for him. Against a lefty, he doesn’t really have much of a choice.
If this series goes to Game 5, however, then Girardi’s going to have to make some decisions, and not just about Alex Rodriguez.
While Rodriguez’s struggles are generating the headlines, Curtis Granderson is probably an even bigger problem. Like Rodriguez, he’s off to a miserable start in this series — 1 for 11 with 6 strikeouts — but this isn’t really something recent. Since a strong beginning to the season, Granderson has really struggled, and has particularly struggled with strikeouts. Since July 1st, Granderson has struck out 110 times in 345 trips to the plate, a strikeout rate of 33%. He didn’t even strike out this much back in his Detroit days, and his escalating contact problems speak to a potentially larger problem than just a four game slump.
Against right-handed pitching, the Yankees have some depth that they don’t have against lefties — which is likely one of the reasons why Showalter went with Joe Saunders in Game 4 — and could potentially make some adjustments for Game 5. For instance, if Girardi wanted to get radical and react strongly to recent performance, he could go for the overhaul plan:
1. Jeter, SS
2. Ichiro, LF
3. Cano, 2B
4. Texeira, 1B
5. Swisher, RF
6. Chavez, 3B
7. Martin, C
8. Ibanez, DH
9. Gardner, CF
Chavez hit .299/.366/.545 against right-handers this year, so starting him at third base isn’t really going out on any kind of limb. Likewise, Ibanez’s 114 wRC+ against right-handers this year is also quite a bit better than A-Rod’s 94, so giving him the start against a right-hander with the season on the line isn’t so crazy. Both Chavez and Ibanez have shown huge platoon splits, however, so starting them means you’re committed to pinch-hitting for them when Showalter goes to the bullpen. Depending on how early that ends up being, Rodriguez and Nunez might end up getting just as many at-bats as Chavez and Ibanez.
This is one of the problems with guys who have large platoon splits. In the playoffs, you can’t count on getting three trips to the plate against the starter, so putting a guy in the line-up because he has the platoon advantage might only result in that match-up happening once, especially if he’s hitting towards the bottom of the batting order. Even if Girardi wanted to reward Ibanez for his performance last night, it’s not clear that starting him in Game Five would be the best way to do that – it might just put him into a situation where he either has to face a bunch of left-handers or get pinch-hit for in the fourth or fifth inning.
The best way to use Ibanez and Rodriguez might be to just continue with the status quo, at least in terms of who starts the game. Having Ibanez available to pinch-hit against Jim Johnson, when you know Showalter won’t go to the bullpen and get a left-hander to counter the move, could very well be the best use of his skillset.
In center field, though, a switch may very well be in order, at least for one game. Gardner’s the superior defensive player and Granderson’s problems run deeper than just the ALDS. If there’s a significant move to be made in the Yankees line-up, it should probably come in center field.
That’s gonna be one ugly lineup next season in NY.
Will it be that ugly? Martin will likely be a little better. A-Rod is clearly slowing down, but he and Teixeira will likely play more than the 245 games they played this year. Gardner will be back to replace Ichiro. Don’t see how it will be any uglier than this year, which somehow managed to eke out despite shelling out 800 plate appearances to Andruw Jones, Ibanez, Dewayne Wise and Casey McGehee. I have an odd feeling that the Yankees offense will be fine next year.
which somehow managed to eke out 804 runs***
Why are A-Rod and Teixeira likely to play more than 245 games? At their ages, that sounds about right to me.
I think the lineup will be better because they’ll find ways to fill holes, not because of increased production from aging former superstars.
I don’t think you can really assume that the Yankees will get more games out of A-Rod next year seeing as though he hasn’t played a full season in six years. Also, I’m not sure why you would assume Martin will hit better when he basically put up the same line he’s been putting up for the last four years.
Add in the fact that Teixeira has been steadily declining, Jeter probably won’t hit as well as he did this year, Granderson has some big questions marks, and Swisher might leave, the Yanks will have some real problems in their line up.
Sure, they can upgrade, but where? Almost every one of their big question marks is locked in for a few more years, and I doubt they’ll want to just let them go for pennies on the dollar when they are trying to cut their payroll. The only positions they don’t have under contract for next year are left, right, and DH. For right, I don’t know that there is anyone better then Swisher. As for left and DH, there aren’t a whole lot of great free agent options out there.
@JayT: LF is already filled for next year. How did everybody forget about Brett Gardner so quickly?
@Jim: I did forget about Gardner, but I’m not sure how much that really helps. Gardner’s a nice player, but just looking at hitting, he’s pretty much a league average bat. I doubt he’ll really big that big of an improvement (hitting-wise only) over what the Yankees were using this year.
David Ortiz playing DH with that left field porch would be a pretty good signing.
especially with MLB’s off-season embargo on acquiring new players…
Yes, that’s a very common practice for positions that are already filled.
Catcher, RF, DH are filled? (and to some extent LF isn’t filled)
Interesting.
If you want to get technical about it, the only positions the Yankees have filled for next year are 3B, SS, and 1B.
They still could decide to not tender a contract to Brett Gardner in LF. Granderson and Cano both have team options which have not been picked up yet. If they really feel like blowing up the team, they could decline Granderson’s option and go find a whole new outfield. The question is whether there are any options out there that are better. I’d rather pay B.J. Upton 4/$40 than Nick Swisher 6/$115, but I don’t know that the Yankees would actually be a better team that way.
I wonder, is Granderson really as bad in CF as his UZR numbers are this year? Is he just having a bad season there or is this just too small a sample?
If he’s that bad in CF, I see no reason NOT to replace him with Gardner tonight.
I’ve watched roughly 120 Yankee games this year and Granderson has made many bad reads on fly balls. Also, he can’t throw.
I recall a few conversations last season wherein dedicated saber-types pointed to Granderson’s negative UZR as an indicator that the measure, while valuable, had its imperfections, as it seemed improbable that a guy who’d posted 25 UZR from ’04-’10 would suddenly be a minus defender. However, a) that is the nature of the stat and we are often guilty of making too much of the swings from + to – when it’s really just a few runs, and b) he’s continued the trend this season. He’s a speedy guy, and he makes some pretty plays, but a goodly number of flies fall in where others are catching them.
I don’t know if it’s where he plays, if he’s losing a step, or just a seasonal anomaly (he did post a -11.1 in ’08). Over 9300+ Inn in CF, he’s got a net UZR of 0.6 and a UZR/150 of 0.1, which may suggest that Granderson is more or less a league-average defender in the post.
‘Fraid I don’t have any conclusions or wild declarations to make. Love the pop and style of play, hate the pitch selection.
Arod is only average versus right handers this year. 2010 and 2011 tell a much different story. I’d start Arod over Ibanez without much thought.
What exactly has Chavez done to earn a lineup spot? His career post season numbers are much worse than A-Rod’s. A-Rod should be at 3B with Ibanez DHing. Just like they’ve done all season long.
Shouldn’t we be asking Donald Trump?
Trump Tweets the Yankees
I was thinking immediately before i saw this article how old the Yankees are in the 1, 2, 3 spots in the batting order. Jeter is 38, Suzuki is 38, AROD is 37. That’s a combined age of 113 for the first three batters. Is that the oldest one, two three in postseason history?
Can’t forget the ‘wheeze kids’. 115 combined age for 1-2-3, Morgan-Rose-Schimdt
http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BAL/BAL198310110.shtml
Thanks Paul, I was thinking about those Phillies/Pete Rose teams but forgot they actually made the WS in 83. That must be the oldest.
Assuming for a second that the Yankees make the World Series, and that Chris Stewart somehow gets a start instead of Russell Martin, the Yankees could trot out a lineup where all 9 players are over 30. That might be a MLB first.
The 2002 Giants that made the World Series
CF – Kenny Loften (Age 35)
SS – Rich Aurilia (Age 31)
2B – Jeff Kent (Age 34)
LF – Barry Bonds (Age 38)
C – Benito Santiago (Age 37)
1B – JT Snow (Age 34)
RF – Reggie Sanders (Age 34)
3B – David Bell (Age 30)
DH – Shawon Dunston (Age 39)
Average Age – 34.666…
is Gardner available defensively? Given that Girardi has only been using him as a pinch runner suggests that his arm injury might preclude him from throwing.
I’m pretty sure his injury was to his non-throwing arm.
Plus he’s been available since the season ending Boston series for pinch running, defense, and has had a couple of AB’s. So he’s technically fully available.
His injury is to the non-throwing arm and he’s been cleared to swing. So there are no restrictions, he just hasn’t faced live pitching in a couple of months, so throwing him into a post-season game probably isn’t the best idea.
Cool stuff! I forgot they even got to a world series in 1983.
This is nitpicky, but according to optimal lineup theory, isn’t the 3rd spot supposed to be filled by the 5th best hitter? Cano should be batting 4th, I think.
Well, yes and no. 3rd place is not as important as 1,2,4,5 based on history, but that may be distorted due to the fact that so many managers place average to poor batters in 1 and 2, resulting in 3 having few baserunners.
In a completely optimized lineup based on each player’s abilities, resulting in 2 of the best OBPs being in 1 and 2, 3 would probably be quite important.
Is there a reason Eduardo Nunez can’t start at SS? That way Jeter can DH and be replaced with PH if his injury is obviously affecting his performance.
Also, it would prevent me from playing. I am a below average defender and batter!
Eduardo Nunez has a tendancy to get the yips from time to time. He has great range, and a really strong arm, but sometimes he couldn’t catch a cold, and even the most routine throws can go into the dugout. I’m very aware of Nix’s shortcomings as a fielder. But he can catch the ball and throw it in the general direction of 1b, so I’d rather he got the start at SS.
um, yeah, his terrible defense.
People rag on Jeter for being a terrible defender, and he is. But Jeter passes what I like to call the “Chuck Knoblauch Test.” The Chuck Knoblauch Test is where you look at a player’s defense, and say to yourself “can I, with a straight face, continue to play this person in the field without him completely destroying any chance I have to win a game?” Derek Jeter passes the Chuck Knoblauch Test, because, while he’s a poor defender, you can at least envision a scenario where your team will win a game despite having Derek Jeter play defense.
Eduardo Nunez does not pass the Chuck Knoblauch Test. The Yankees would have a better chance of winning games by trotting an epileptic hyena out to SS.
I think Girardi is going to stick with both Granderson and Rodriguez through the playoffs. Going forward the bigger problem is Granderson. A-Rod’s contract is what it is. The reason he’s currently so diminished is the lingering hand issue, he’s still a pretty good player. The challenge for the Yankees is to balance playing him at 3b where they can maximize his value, and playing him at DH to preserve his health. Despite the fact that he’s still a good defender and his bat still plays well there, I think they will play him increasingly at DH (where his bat doesn’t play as well) to preserve his health.
The decision with Granderson is a little more complicated. Swisher is a FA this year and Granderson next. I doubt the Yankees want to extend both well into their thirties. Prior to the season it was clear the Yankees wanted to keep Granderson and were willing to let Swisher walk. After Granderson’s decline, maybe they should be thinking that Swisher is the better investment.
Nix isn’t a below average defender, at least not this year
Try re-watching the games this season & try again
Thanks
A UZR/150 of -26 is pretty awful, I watched probably 90 yankee games this season. Nix doesn’t have the range or the arm strength to play SS everyday. However he’s still better than Nunez. Nix turns outs into singles by not getting to the ball or not getting it to 1b in time, Nunez turns outs into doubles by throwing them away.
I think the sample sizes are a bit small to declare that Chavez hits righties better than A-Rod. Chavez has 273 PA’s vs. right handers this year. He had an 82 RC+ versus them last year and basically sat out 3.5 years before that.Not to mention his putrid .262 post-season wOBA.
i remain convinced rodriguez has one dead cat bounce year coming. sadly this looked like the year. he played decently, then got hot and started hitting for power then broke his hand in a fluke injury. i think rodriguez has a good year next year then settles in as a decent middle of the road 3bman until the last two years when he is fibished. having watched him 120 timesva year for a long time now its clear he has great passion for the game and a wonderful baseball mind. im thinking he goes straight into coaching. this isnt a guy like jeter who can walk away from the gane. and for all the crap he takes i gotta say im quite impressed with the dignity and grace he has shown thrilough his decline. im wondering if maybe the legendary insane offsesson program should be scaled back some.
Or scaled up to ultra legen…wait for it…dairy?
As for reshaping the Yankees lineup this postseason, I highly doubt there will be any changes. While many of the followers of this site talk in stats and numbers, we as fans/viewers do not take into account: Pride.
Girardi has too much pride to admit that his starts and changes have been way off this season and Cashman has way too much pride to want to blowup their outfield. Blowing up the outfield essentially says “hey, I made a complete mistake by getting rid of Austin Jackson”.
I do not have the numbers with me, but as a fan of the Yankees I think that anyone can see that getting rid of Swisher and Granderson is a must if the Yankees want to even think about competing in the following years. No, the lineup will not change for Game 5. But going forward, the Yankees need to address the age factor and speed.
Granderson cannot be our centerfielder. His dWar is somewhere near the bottom of the MLB because he throws a baseball like a 12 year old girl and has awful judgement of flyballs. Gardner has proven himself in the field with great speed and an above-average arm in centerfield. Also, he can bunt and steal bases which the Yankees desperately need in order to diversify their lineup going forward. Not the mention that Granderson strikes out around 33% of the time if you discredit the first few months of the season.
Swisher needs to go. Yeah he’s fun and smiley. But smiling while you’re making outs is not what people want to see. Smile when you make a play for us. His obp is high and his arm is decent, but when you look at a 1 for 30+ average with RISP in the postseason you want to vomit. The Yankees are supposed to make the playoffs so their players need to be able to perform in the playoffs.
Will Cashman get rid of both Swisher and Granderson and opt for Ichiro, Gardner, and maybe a free agent signing (or a minor league talent)? Probably not. But that’s the way he should be thinking.
You can teach a man to field (Eduardo Nunez should be taught), you can teach a man to bunt (Jeter), you can teach a man to feel confident in his new role (Ichiro hitting .300+ since joining NY) but YOU CANNOT TEACH SPEED!
And with that, speed is what the Yankees lack that will catapult them to the top of the baseball world again. They will continue to lack that if major adjustments are not made.