Reviewing the Top 100 Prospects List, 75-51

This week we’re reviewing the annual pre-season Top 100 prospects list that originally ran in mid-March. Below you’ll find prospects 75 through 51 in the original order they appeared. Yesterday, we looked at prospects 100-76.

75. Taylor Guerrieri, RHP, Tampa Bay: The 24th overall selection during the 2011 draft, Guerrieri was held back in extended spring training by the ultra-cautious Tampa Bay Rays. The right-hander has 14 strikeouts, one walk and an above-average ground-ball rate in 13.0 innings. (Value Static)

74. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, Kansas City: Cuthbert’s 2012 season has been a letdown after be had a very promising year in ’11. The infielder’s .582 OPS against right-handed pitchers has pulled down his overall effectiveness and he clearly has adjustments to make. He’s struck out 47 times in 77 games, a solid rate, but he’s also taken just 27 walks. (Value Down)

73. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Kansas City: A participant of the 2012 Futures Game, Odorizzi continues to produce solid numbers as a pro. The right-hander struck out 47 batters in 38.0 innings at double-A and earned a promotion to triple-A. He’s pitched well but his opponents’ average against has risen from .191 to .274. (Value Up)

72. Leonys Martin, OF, Texas: Martin, 24, has produced outstanding triple-A numbers (.961 OPS) but hasn’t had the same success at the big league level although we’re dealing with a small sample size (11 games). Five of his six big league hits have gone for extra bases and he’s 2-for-2 in steals. (Value Static)

71. Carlos Martinez, RHP, St. Louis: Just 20 years old, Martinez is already pitching double-A after beginning the season in high-A ball. He has yet to give up a home run this season (54.1 IP) and has produced above-average ground-ball rates to go along with solid strikeout rates. (Value Up)

70. George Springer, OF, Houston: Springer is hitting .318 but he’s been aided by a .400 BABIP in an offensive-minded league. The outfielder has shown good speed (18 steals) and power (.244 ISO) but his contact issues (25.7 K%) could be an issue as he moves up the ladder. (Value Up)

69. Jedd Gyorko, 3B, San Diego: Gyorko produced a solid wRC+ rate of 120 in 34 double-A games but has gotten even better with a promotion to triple-A which has resulted in a wRC+ rate of 147. His power rate has also increased from .169 to .262. Gyorko is close to being ready for the Majors. (Value Up)

68. Dellin Betances, RHP, New York AL: Betances struggled mightily at triple-A when he lost complete control of the strike zone by walking 69 batters in 74.2 innings of work. Moved back to double-A, he’s looked better in two starts by issuing just six free passes in 12.0 innings. Now 24, it’s looking more and more likely that Betances’ future is in the bullpen. (Value Down)

67. Jeurys Familia, RHP, New York NL: Like Betances, Familia is another minor league starter that may face a big league future as a reliever do to control issues. The 22-year-old pitcher has walked 53 batters in 81.1 innings at triple-A but has also struck out 72. (Value Static)

66. Jake Marisnick, OF, Toronto: Marisnick produced decent numbers in high-A ball to begin the year (127 wRC+) and earned a recent promotion to double-A where he’s appeared in just five games to date. He has the ceiling of a perennial all-star but needs more time to put it all together. (Value Up)

65. Jose Campos, RHP, New York AL: A great acquisition as the “throw-in” to the Michael Pineda deal with Seattle, Campos hasn’t pitched since April thanks to an elbow injury. He possesses top-of-the-rotation stuff. (Value Static)

64. Noah Syndergaard, RHP, Toronto: Syndergaard can touch 100 mph with his fastball but needs work on his secondary stuff. Despite some rough edges he’s struck out 80 batters with just 18 walks issued in 64.2 innings. He allowed 13 of 22 earned runs on the year during a three-game stretch in late May/early June. (Value Up)

63. Justin Nicolino, LHP, Toronto: Like Syndergaard, Nicolino has been pitching at low-A ball for the Jays organization and producing impressive numbers. The southpaw’s stuff isn’t as dynamic as his teammate’s but his repertoire is more advanced and his control above-average (1.77 BB/9). (Value Up)

62. Eddie Rosario, 2B/OF, Minnesota: After slugging 21 home runs in 270 advanced-rookie ball at-bats in 2011 expectations were high for Rosario entering this season. His power numbers are down (It’s hard to duplicate a .333 ISO rate) but he still has a wRC+ of 125 as a 20 year old in the Midwest League. He’s also trimmed his strikeout rate by 6% down to 14%. (Value Up)

61. Taylor Jungmann, RHP, Milwaukee: Jungmann did not pitch after signing as a first round draft pick in 2011 but was given assignment to high-A ball to begin 2012. He’s showing good control and is allowing fewer than nine hits per nine innings but his strikeout rate is just 5.65 K/9. His lack of Ks is offset somewhat by his above-average ground-ball rate. He looks like a future mid-rotation starter. (Value Static)

60. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, St. Louis: I ranked Jenkins pretty high entering 2012 (compared to other Top 100 lists) based on his immense potential and athleticism. So far, though, the teenager has struggled in his first taste of full-season ball. The right-hander currently sports a 5.60 ERA and a walk rate of 4.38 BB/9. Bad luck has played a part in his disappointing numbers and his FIP sits at 3.81. (Value Static)

59. Oscar Taveras, OF, St. Louis: Taveras employs a unique approach at the plate but the number of detractors amongst the scouting community are starting to dwindle away as he continues to have success as he moves up the organizational ladder. After posting a 187 wRC+ at low-A in 2011, the young outfielder was skipped over high-A and assigned to double-A where he has a 168 wRC+. Taveras hits for both average (.322) and power (.274). (Value Up)

58. Jonathan Singleton, 1B/OF, Houston: The Astros organization has done a nice job of rebuilding a bare minor league system basically from the ground floor up and Singleton is one of the key offensive prospects that should have a large impact at the big league level in short order. The former Phillies prospect is hitting just .271 with a strikeout rate of 22.8% at double-A but he’s getting on base at a high clip and is showing good power. He also has the ability to play either first base our the corner outfield. Singleton could develop into a middle-of-the-order threat for Houston and could be MLB ready by early 2013. (Value Up)

57. Rymer Liriano, OF, San Diego: Liriano, 21, has the potential to develop into an above-average regular in right field for the Padres. He opened 2012 in high-A ball and hit almost .300 with 22 steals in 74 games. He flashed some gap power but struck out a little too much (22%). Liriano stole more than 60 bases in 2011 but he’s expected to slow down as he matures and become more of a slugger. He was recently promoted to double-A. (Value Up)

56. Nate Eovaldi, RHP, Los Angeles NL: The right-handed Eovaldi made his MLB debut in 2011 with 10 appearances for the Dodgers but he received some more minor league seasoning in 2012 before settling into the big league rotation once again. He’s made eight big league starts in 2012 and currently has a 4.21with a below-averge strikeout rate (4.60 K/9). Eovaldi is currently pitching like a back-of-the-rotation arm but he has the potential to develop into a mid-rotation contributor. (Value Up)

55. Will Middlebrooks, 3B, Boston: The ranking of Middlebrooks was clearly a little low based on the impact he’s had for the Red Sox organization in 2012. His emergence at the hot corner allowed the organization to part with long-time star Kevin Youkilis, who had worn out his welcome. Middlebrooks is currently hitting almost .300 with above-average power (.240 ISO) in 171 at-bats but his low walk and high strikeout rates suggest the batting average might take a dive in the second half of the year. (Value Up)

54. Drew Hutchison, RHP, Toronto: Injuries caused the Jays organization to push Hutchison to the Major Leagues perhaps before he was truly ready but he held his own – until he suffered a injury of his own. He’s expected to try and rehab his elbow but I have a concern that the young pitcher is just delaying the inevitable Tommy John surgery – something that has befallen far too many young Jays pitchers as of late. (Value Static)

53. Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto: Considered by many to be the top prep southpaw available in the 2011 draft, Norris slipped to the Jays in the second round and they got him signed with a well-above-slot deal. The club has been cautious with the talented lefty and he did not make his debut until the short-season leagues opened in June. He has 18 Ks in 15.1 innings but has also walked eight batters. (Value Up)

52. Javier Baez, SS, Chicago NL: Baez was held back in extended spring training until late May but was then assigned to the low-A Midwest League. It’s hard to argue with Chicago’s approach as the young shortstop has hit quite well with an average of more than .300 and six home runs in 35 games. He’s also stolen 14 bases in 15 attempts. (Value Up)

51. Daniel Corcino, RHP, Cincinnati: Corcino has enjoyed his time in double-A in 2012. He’s allowed just 74 hits in 94.0 innings of work and continues to be quite durable for the organization lending hope that the right-hander will provide plenty of innings for Cincinnati as a mid-rotation starter at the big league level. He needs to sharpen his control to fully realize his potential; after walking just 33 batters in 139.1 innings in 2011 he’s now issued 44 free passes in 2012. (Value Up)




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Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospect analysis. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.


34 Responses to “Reviewing the Top 100 Prospects List, 75-51”

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  1. Eminor3rd says:

    A lot of “Value Up” in this group

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    • PiratesHurdles says:

      Yeah 1 guy out of 25 has a drop in value? Unless most of the top 50 have dropped its hard to justify all these increases in value.

      Eovaldi for example, you were aggressive with him at #56 and he’s pitching like a back-end guy, how is that value up?

      Or even Corcino, you were very aggressive with him at #51, his performance has justified your ranking, but I can’t imagine his value is higher than #51 in MLB.

      Jungmann is a college guy in high A not missing bats, I doubt most would still have him at #61.

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      • McExpos says:

        Pitching like a back-end starter in the Major Leagues at the age of 22? That may have something to do with his increase in value.

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      • PiratesHurdles says:

        Above #56 in baseball? There arn’t many limited ceiling SP propsects in the top 50. My point is that Marc already ranked him very high and he hasn’t done anything to make that ranking look too low.

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      • TiensyGohan says:

        Eovaldi throws 95MPH and has lower K% than Zito. At the age of 22.

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      • Bad Bill says:

        Remedial Reading tutorial: “Value” is not the same thing as “Ranking.”

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      • jerbear1985 says:

        “Value up” basically means that they’ve continued to improve their stock. This list doesn’t have to have 50 guys with “value up” and 50 guys with “value down”. If they’re better, they’re better.

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    • Anon says:

      And in the last post as well. Only 8 out of 50 have value down.

      It would be nice to see a rating of some sort next to each prospect. (A – F or 0-100 or 20-80, or whatever you prefer)

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  2. Bob says:

    The grade inflation in these prospect list reviews appears to be more rampant than what you typically see in an Ivy League school. When pitchers get elbow injuries and their value doesn’t change, methinks a little more introspection is in order.

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  3. AL Eastbound says:

    The Jays Low-A three headed monster of Sanchez-Nicolino-Syndergaard is ridonk.

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    • Ryabn says:

      I’m sure one will develop into a good MLB arm, one will be an end of the rotation kind of guy and the other will fizzle. Nice trio the Jays got there. AA has been doing work since JPR left,.

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      • Brian says:

        JPR was the Pandora’s box of the Blue Jays organization. The team was literally left the team in shambles. Bunches of high salary players, few prospects to build the team back. Literally the only one glimmer of hope left behind from JPR was Jose Bautista.

        It sometimes amazes me how Jays fans want to compete NOW considering that AA still isn’t done cleaning JPR’s messes.

        I’ll give the Blue Jays 3 to complete their rebuilding. But at that point, I expect Gillick-like results. 4 post-season berths in 5 years.

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  4. soamx says:

    I think a new midseason top 100 would have been more useful than this current review thing. Any chance there will be a midseason update when this is over?

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    • TKP says:

      Yea while still legit, the only thing I’m thinking when I’m reading these is “where do they rank now?”

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    • Well-Beered Englishman says:

      I didn’t have that reaction; I’m not interested in assigning every player a number. If I do have a wish, it is for a post about prospects who would now be in the top 100 but were not previously.

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      • soamx says:

        So you’d be interested in knowing who was no longer in the top 100 and who now is in the top 100, sounds a lot like you’d also want an updated top 100.

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      • Well-Beered Englishman says:

        Well, e.g., if Nathan Karns is someone he would add to the top 100, I don’t much care if he is #92 or #93.

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  5. vivalajeter says:

    I’m a little curious about why Familia is ‘static’ instead of ‘down’. Per 9 innings, he’s striking out 2 fewer batters and walking 2 more batters. K/BB went from 2.75 to 1.36. He’s obviously facing tougher competition in AAA, but that seems like a pretty severe regression for him.

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  6. lftyg33 says:

    On Taylor Jungmann’s report:

    “…and is allowing fewer than nine hits per inning…”

    I should hope so…

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  7. rossthevenot says:

    The Cardinals currently have an extremely nice crop of players sitting in AA, and AAA. Taveras, Wong, Miller, Martinez, Adams (currently on MLB roster, but probably head back down once Berkman is back from DL).

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  8. LuckyStrikes says:

    About Gyorko:
    I’ve seen different scouting reports, but does he have the bat to play 3B or the glove to play 2B? Which is the better/most likely fit in SD?

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    • travolta19 says:

      He can actually hold his own at 2B defensively, he’s a bit underrated there. At 3B, his bat should be good enough to be at least a mid-division starter. He’s shown solid power throughout his career (.205 career ISOp) and has decent plate discipline…

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  9. jcxy says:

    to marc or jays fans:

    who is a rough mlb equivalent for syndergaard?

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  10. Butters says:

    Thanks for all the work on the updates, Marc! I’m a little confused by a particular comment, though. Specifically, Oscar Taveras’s “detractors are starting to dwindle”? Starting?

    Other than Jeff Sussman, is there *anybody* out there left who has any real doubts the kid is going to be a star? Slugging .600 or so in AA as a 19/20year, while fanning just 13% of the time, is almost unheardof. Jason Parks’ scouting contacts are saying 70+ on BOTH the “hit” and “power” tools. That’s Vlad Guerrero redux.

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  11. Nick says:

    so 2 pitchers in short season…
    Norris: 15.1 innings, 18 K, 8 BB: value up
    Guerrieri: 13 innings, 14 K, 1 BB: value static

    This isn’t explained that well by the write ups.

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  12. Ryan says:

    I’m a bit confused about how Daniel Norris could increase his value while not pitching. Did he make some sort of breakthrough in extended spring training? Is there anything that makes him more desirable now than six months ago?

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  13. kurtplunk says:

    Jedd Gyorko should be a lot higher than this. at least in the 50s. Excellent talent.

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  14. Justin M. says:

    Out of curiosity, what did you find weird with Alen Hanson and Luis Heredia of the Pirates. I find it hard to believe you have Heredia in your top 50, and having him not in top 100 seems weird, and Hanson being better in top 50 seems weird too, (no way you can have him outside top 100 with season he’s having and tools, but having a low A guy so high without a bunch of pre-professional hype seems strange as well this fast).

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