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Robinson Cano, Pablo Sandoval, and Hard Contact
Posted By Paul Swydan On April 19, 2013 @ 3:16 pm In Daily Graphings,Giants,Yankees | 22 Comments
Sometimes players are described as “bad-ball hitters.” Or, sometimes players will be described as having strike zones that range from the head to their heels. Vladimir Guerrero used to own these tags, and once upon a time, so did Nomar Garciaparra. It is possible to succeed while swinging at everything, and nobody personifies that today better than do Robinson Cano and Pablo Sandoval.
Generally, swinging from your heels at every pitch isn’t a good idea. But here’s the thing — Cano and Sandoval are actually able to hit nearly everything. Pitchf/x has been compiling plate discipline data since 2007. The approximate league averages for O-Swing% during that time has been 28%, with 45% for Swing % and 81% for Contact %. I’m singling out O-Swing% rather than Z-Swing% since it’s harder to make quality contact on pitches that are out of the strike zone. Jumping those marks up one percent, we find that in that span, 319 had an O-swing% of 29% or higher, 323 had a Swing% of 46% or higher and 296 had a Contact % of 82% or higher, out a total of 716 players. However, only 78 players — or about 11 percent — had all three. Cano and Sandoval are two of those 78.
Many of them barely qualify as above having above average percentages, however. They have rates that are one to two percent above average in most respects, close enough to the average baseline to not be that remarkable. Combing down a little further though, we can see that only 26 players had O-Swing%’s and Swing% percentages more than 5 percent above the average (33% and 50%, respectively) while still maintaining that above-average contact rate. To wit:
Cano and Sandoval are still in the picture. Looking at the rest of the players here, we notice a few things. First, most of these guys either don’t have a very long track record, or didn’t have one in the Pitchf/x era. Garciaparra, for instance, had a plenty long track record in the majors, but by 2007 was on his last legs. The same is true of Barrett, Payton and a few others. As a result, most of the players here didn’t reach 1,000 PA. Of the 17 players in the sample who didn’t reach 1,000 PA, 10 of them are from the 12 players who are no longer active on a major league roster. And many of the active players are not what you would call regulars.
There’s likely a reason for that. While these guys manage to make contact at an above-average rate despite the frequency with which they swing, they’re not making — or did not make — what you would call hard contact. Of the 26-person sample, we see that 22 of them had an ISO below league average, and Crawford is essentially league average. That leaves Cano, Sandoval and Crede, who hasn’t played since 2009, as having definitively above-average ISO marks. We see the same story play out when examining slugging percentage. Cano stands at .508, Sandoval .490, and then Crawford comes in third, way off in the distance at .450, and then there is another sharp drop from there. Only three others are definitively above average.
It’s not just power, either. In looking at their wOBAs, we see that only Cano, Crawford, Pierzynski, Ramirez, Sandoval and Tejada have posted league average wOBAs or better. And Tejada’s days of posting even an exemplary wOBA are behind him — he hasn’t posted an above-average wOBA since 2009. It seemed like Ramirez’s days of being a productive hitter were behind him as well, but he has started this season with a bang.
Cano and Sandoval really do separate from the pack. Their SLG, ISO and wOBA marks stand out as the best among the group. You could squint and put Crawford in the same group, but then Crawford has struck out far more frequently across this span than have Cano and Sandoval. Furthermore, Crawford’s status in this group may be honorary at this point. He has started 2013 with drastically reduced Swing and O-Swing percentages. In the Pitchf/x years (again, 2007-present), Crawford has an O-Swing% of 34.5%, and a 50.5% Swing%. This season however, those numbers have dipped sharply — to 20.7% and 39.7%, respectively. He is still making contact at an above-average rate, but his swing percentages are well below average.
Cano and Sandoval, on the other hand, are still swinging with the best of them this season. Cano’s swing rates are down from his 2011 peak, but he is his O-Swing% and Swing% are still five percent above league average as of today. And Sandoval trumps just about everyone. Sandoval’s swing rates are 15-20% above league average. Only two players are swinging at more pitches this year than Sandoval — Josh Hamilton and Jeff Francoeur — and neither of them have contact rates even resembling league average.
Generally speaking, a hitter can do one of two things — he can try to hit for power or he can try to hit for contact. Cano and Sandoval have a long track record that proves that they can do both, and there really isn’t anyone else in their league. Their ability to swing at nearly any pitch and still manage to make enough hard contact to hit for power — both have top-50 slugging percentages since 2007 — is rare.
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