Royals Mortgage Future To Be Mediocre In 2013

In some ways, this post feels like a repeat. When rumors first surfaced that the Royals were considering shipping off Wil Myers to acquire a veteran starting pitcher, I wrote up my feelings on why that wasn’t such a great idea. If you want to see my full breakdown on swapping Myers for Shields, start there. The brief summary goes something like this; sure, the Royals need better pitching, but they also need better outfielders, and better infielders, and better everything. The Royals were not a particularly good baseball team last year, or the year before, or really any time in recent history.

They won 83 games back in 2003, the last time they had a winning season. Prior to that, you had to go back to 1993 to find a season where they won more games than they lost. Two winning seasons in 20 years can make a franchise desperate for respectability. And desperate teams often do desperate things. But I don’t think anyone saw the Royals doing something this desperate.

If you haven’t heard the news yet, the Royals agreed to trade OF Wil Myers, RHP Jake Odorizzi, LHP Mike Montgomery, and 3B Patrick Leonard to Tampa Bay for RHP James Shields, RHP Wade Davis, and a PTBNL or cash. Whenever there’s “or cash” attached, you can be pretty sure the PTBNL is no one of note, so basically, the Royals traded their best prospect, their best pitching prospect, and two other talented youngsters for Shields and Davis.

The obvious comparison here is the Erik Bedard trade. Coming off an 88 win season, the Mariners decided to go for broke, shipping off prospects Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, and Kam Mickolio along with reliever George Sherrill to acquire Bedard from the Orioles. The Mariners weren’t as close to winning as they thought they were, and after they won 61 games in 2008, the entire front office was fired and the organization went into a full scale rebuild. Bedard spent his two years in Seattle on and off the disabled list, while Jones has blossomed into one of the game’s best center fielders and Tillman continues to flash some potential as a young starter with a big league future.

That trade is generally regarded as the worst prospects-for-veteran swap in recent history. This might be worse.

Myers is a better prospect now than Jones was at the time he was dealt. He’s not a sure thing, of course — no player is, prospect, veteran, or otherwise — but he’s basically big league ready and has a promising future. The right-handed Jay Bruce comparisons aren’t too far off base. The concern about his contact rate can’t just be swept under the rug, but the power and athleticism are there, and he has a good enough approach at the plate that he can get on base at an adequate rate even if he hits .250. He’s probably something close to a +2 win player right now, and he has the ability to turn into one of the better right fielders in baseball.

Meanwhile, Odorizzi is a similar pitcher to Tillman, just at a more advanced level than Tillman was at the time of the deal. He’s more of a good-command-of-solid-stuff guy than a future ace, but he’s got a shot to be a pretty solid middle of the rotation starter. And, given that he’s already spent 100+ innings in Triple-A, his timeline for reaching the big leagues is significantly faster than Tillman’s was when Baltimore acquired him, since Tillman had split the prior season between low-A and high-A.

The additional pieces in the Bedard trade were a reliever, a relief prospect, and a 19-year-old A-ball arm with health problems. Sherrill, Butler, and Mickolio weren’t nothing, but they were more filler than serious value pieces. Meanwhile, the extra players going Tampa’s way have some real talent. Marc Hulet rated Montgomery as the Royals #2 prospect (behind Myers) before the 2012 season, and while he had a miserable season this past year, there’s clearly some talent there to be salvaged if the Rays can get him back on track. And Mike Newman just rated Patrick Leonard as the eighth best 3B prospect he saw this year, noting his power potential and the fact that he’s already showing some plate discipline at a young age.

Put simply, this is a better package of players than the Orioles got for Bedard. Which is good, because James Shields is better now than Bedard was then, and they’re also getting Wade Davis as well, but it is an undeniable fact that the Royals just paid a very, very steep price to make this trade.

And, unfortunately for Kansas City, it’s hard to see too many scenarios where adding Shields and Davis put them over the top for a playoff berth — the kind of result that would essentially be required to justify this kind of future-for-present trade. Last year, the Royals ranked 22nd in both wins (72) and WAR (+30, which suggests an expected W-L record of ~73 wins). This was not a team that drastically underachieved their on field play. They were bad at hitting, bad at fielding, and bad at pitching. Their bullpen was excellent – pretty much everything else was horrible.

James Shields will make their pitching better. Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie might too. Wade Davis could help, depending on how he’s used. The Royals pitching in 2013 should be a lot better than it was in 2012.

But that might be enough to make them an 80 win team instead of a 70 win team. Without Myers, they’re now stuck with a replacement level right fielder. They don’t really have a second baseman. Eric Hosmer has to take a huge step forward to just not be horrible. And even at positions like center field, shortstop, and third base, the in-house options are more interesting future pieces than impact present options. The Royals offense is basically Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, and a lot of hopes and prayers. This is just not a team that was a couple of pitchers away from the postseason. This was a team that was a couple of pitchers away from not picking in the top 10 in next year’s draft.

If you squint hard enough, you can see the possibility of the Royals winning 90 games next year. If Hosmer takes a huge step forward, and Santana rebounds to 2011 form, and everyone stays healthy, and they win all 19 games they play against the Twins, but you can do that with 20 to 25 of the teams in Major League Baseball in any given year. It’s not impossible for the Royals to challenge the Tigers for the AL Central title in 2013, but it’s not likely either. There’s a difference between not agreeing to lose on purpose and giving up a huge chunk of your farm system in an ill-fated attempt to push up your timeline to win. The Royals have just done the latter.

This is the Royals pushing all-in on the short term future. If this team as constructed doesn’t win, it’s nearly impossible to see how Moore keeps his job past 2013. He’s spent most of the last seven years building up a vaunted farm system, and now he’s betting that the players it helped him acquire, along the with ones already in Kansas City, are enough to get the team to the promised land. If they’re not, it’s hard to see what hope he can continue to sell the fans, because there isn’t a lot of upper level talent coming behind the roster now in place.

This move solidifies the Royals as a win-now franchise. However, from here, it just doesn’t look like they have a good enough team to actually win now. If the 2013 Royals follow the 2008 Mariners path to self destruction, this might be the last roster Dayton Moore ever gets to build.

If you’re wondering about this trade from the Rays perspective, they’re now a little worse than they were before this trade, but their winter isn’t over. They’ll replace Shields and Davis with worse pitchers, but they’re also freeing up roughly $10 million in salary, so if they reallocate that money to buy a +2 win player elsewhere — they still have a glaring hole at DH — then they very well might end up about as good overall as they would have been had they kept Shields. And, of course, they now control Myers rights for the next six years, and they have Odorizzi to maintain their pitching depth, and they got a couple of potential long term assets in Montgomery and Leonard for their trouble. This is just another terrific move by the Rays, pushing their present talent marginally down in order to provide a huge long term boost and keep the team flush with premium young talent.

Even though their team got worse in the present, Rays fans have to be thrilled with this trade. And even though their club got better in the present, Royals fans should be in mourning, because even after this exchange, the Rays are still the team with a better chance of contending in 2013, and now they’ve cemented a brighter future for themselves as well.




Print This Post



Dave is a co-founder of USSMariner.com and contributes to the Wall Street Journal.


359 Responses to “Royals Mortgage Future To Be Mediocre In 2013”

You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
  1. Colin says:

    Well this article was inevitable. I cannot help but agree with everything written. I know with absolute certainty that there are some very intelligent people in that front office. Which makes moves like this all the more perplexing. I think it displays the relative influence of the top leadership in the organization.

    +22 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • JR says:

      Are you saying Glass meddled?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • ralph says:

        From what I’m reading, I’m guessing Moore knows if he doesn’t hit a certain target in 2013 (.500? 90 wins? Play-in game?), he and his staff are gone.

        Quite the moral hazard, really.

        +35 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Colin says:

        No, I’m saying Dayton Moore in all likelihood does not give much credence to what the rest of his staff has to say about potential trades.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • TKDC says:

        ralph nailed this one. It actually does make sense from a selfish standpoint for Dayton Moore to do this. Playing it smart would ensure his exit, while this at least gives him a puncher’s chance.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Baltar says:

        Ralph, without knowing much about the Royals, I suspected that Dayton Moore was on the hotseat to at least produce a winning team now, if not a playoff team, as soon as I read about the trade.
        It smacks of a desparate gamble, and it just might work.
        I knew Dave Cameron would trash this trade, just because it’s KC, if nothing else. However, that stance is a bit inconsistent as he has recently written articles supporting putting a decent team on the field and hoping for the best, ala Oakland and Baltimore.
        This does improve KC immediately more than Dave lets on, though probably not enough.
        But, what the heck, do you just cry in your beer or give it a shot?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Adam M says:

        “Crying in your beer” and holding on to Wil Meyers and a bevy of other team controllable players are two different things.

        Especially seeing as Wade Davis is going to likely be used as their 4 spot guy. There’s been quite a bit on how by the numbers (Davis has 300 career innings as sample size) Wade Davis is a slightly below average MLB RH STARTING pitcher. On the other hand, he was an elite RH RELIEF pitcher, being one of only two RH SU men to post 1+ WAR without recording a save (O’Day).

        So if you want to cut the egg that way, even if you presume that Wade Davis does take a step forward (even if he’s in the rotation), he’s likely your prototype second division 3–essentially, a solid to average league starter. You need those guys, but not at the expense of Wil Meyers and essentially the gems of a farm system that brought Moore so much acclaim.

        This is Shields and a solid but not impactful regular in Davis (if used in the rotation) for three potential major leaguers in the near future–one with all star potential, the other two with chances for at least respectable, contributory roles and careers.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  2. Mike says:

    David Stern would veto this deal.

    Seriously though, I’d hate to be a Royals fan right now.

    +34 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • KCDaveInLA says:

      Yeah, it ain’t great :(

      This hurts on so many levels. It would hurt a lot less if Myers was being blocked by someone decent. Maybe Jeff Francouer owns some photos of Dayton Moore in a compromising position? This trade is also asking Hosmer and Moose to take huge leaps forward, which I just don’t see them as able to do. Hopefully the new hitting coach will help in that regard.

      At least with all this said, there is no guarantee that Wil Myers alone would have really helped to turn the franchise around, as the pitching problems would still be there, given Montgomery’s flameout and the less-than-superstar projection for Odorizzi.

      Two good things from this are certain: a whole lot less Luke Hochevar, and this might be the move that gets GMDM fired. If only it could cause a change in ownership.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Larry Andersen says:

      In all seriousness, if you buy Moore’s argument, he should be on the phone with Cleveland talking about dumping the rest of the farm for Choo and Cabrera (who’d slide to 2B). If he did that, I’d actually have a little respect for this trade as part of an “all-in” move by the Royals for 2013.

      +18 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Ted Dibiase, Sr. says:

      Stern is a meglomaniac

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  3. Michael Scarn says:

    Step 1: Suck every year to get constant high draft picks
    Step 2: Develop said picks into elite minor league talent
    Step 3: Trade the minor league talent for decent starting pitchers
    Step 4: ???????????
    Step 5: Profit

    +96 Vote -1 Vote +1

  4. Brian S says:

    I’d rather compare this Moore failure to the Reds’ trade for #2 SP Mat Latos. In terms of upside, the price tag for Latos was nowhere near what Friedman raked in for 2 (not cheap) years of Shields.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  5. “That trade is generally regarded as the worst prospects-for-veteran swap in recent history.”

    The other contender for worst in recent history that I’m aware of is Pierzynski-for-Nathan, Liriano, and Bonser. Nathan wasn’t really a prospect anymore, but still. Pierzynski was jettisoned by the Giants after a single season. At least the M’s got to enjoy 250+ innings of Bedard’s work.

    +13 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Ryan K says:

      “That trade is generally regarded as the worst prospects-for-veteran swap in recent history.”

      I’d say Colon for Phillips/Sizemore/Cliff Lee would have to be up there as well

      +72 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • paqza says:

        Extenuating circumstances – the team was in a ‘win-now’ mode because they were about to stop existing.

        +37 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • l1ay says:

        Or Teixeira for Harrison/Salty/Feliz/Andrus

        Salty was the cornerstone and didn’t work out. But, the Rangers got six years of a solid inning eating upper tier MOR guy, an elite SS, and a solid closer until the SP experiment resulted in Feliz being TJ’d.

        +36 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Snowman says:

        That one, when taken in context of the sequence of which it was a part, was much worse than most realize, l1ay.

        First, the Braves traded LaRoche for Mike Gonzalez. because… Thorman.

        A few months into that, they realized Thorman could not handle it, and traded the farm for Teixeira.

        A year after that, they dealt Teixeira for Kotchman.

        A few months after that, the Angels got Trout with the Yankees pick they got due to the loss of Teixeira.

        And a half year or so after that, the Braves dealt Kotchman for… LaRoche.

        So they basically traded Salty, Harrison, Andrus, Neftali, and Trout for Mike Gonzalez. It just took two and a half years to complete the deal.

        +59 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Indignant Bostonian says:

        Carl Pavano (while he was still a prospect) and Tony Armas Jr for Pedro Martinez?

        Heathcliff Slocumb for Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe?

        +11 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Marver says:

        Adam Eaton and Akinori Otsuka for Adrian Gonzalez, Chris Young, and Terrmel Sledge. If only because every game the Dodgers and the Sledge Padres played, Vin Scully told the “his mom wanted to name him Terrance, but his dad wanted to name him Melvin; so, they named him Terrmel” story. That was a great drinking rule.

        +8 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Ted Dibiase, Sr. says:

        Michael Young for Esteban Loaiza

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jeff H. says:

        That Braves transaction was made worse by the fact that the team had no starting pitching depth. Chuck James (gulp) was the #3 starter on the 2007 team.

        Acquiring Tex solved a problem, but not that team’s biggest problem.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jason says:

      Not really fair Alex, that trade was only terrible in hindsight. In a vacuum, with where the Giants were on the win cycle, a middle reliever (Nathan), an 18 year old with should issues that limited him to < 10 innings in '03 (Liriano), and a low upside AA starter (Bonser) ought to be a fair package for a 2-3 win catcher with several years of team control remaining.

      The trade looks much worse in hindsight because both Nathan and Liriano achieved their absolute ceilings, and the Giants signed Benetez to close games who was terrible, and Pierzynski fell off a cliff. But I don't think you can fault the process that led to that trade in the same way you can this deal for Moore and the Royals.

      +16 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Dustin says:

      “Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler, and Kam Mickolio along with reliever George Sherrill” didn’t turn out to yield much anyway. a 2 WAR type player and a bunch of nobodies.

      -5 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Greg S says:

        Adam Jones is a 4WAR player. An All Star. A Gold Glove recipient.
        Chris Tillman is our 4th starter now.
        George Sherrill was an All-Star and great closer. (almost MVP of the ASG)
        Sherrill was shipped to LAD for Steve Johnson, who is likely our 5th starter now.
        Kam Mickolio was packaged to Minnesota for JJ Hardy.

        We got plenty out of Bedard.

        +13 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Scott says:

        I like the use of “gold glove recipient.” He didn’t win it.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • joser says:

      But the M’s didn’t get to “enjoy 250+ innings of Bedard’s work” as the fruits of the original trade. They only got 184 innings out of him (and ~2.9 WAR) in 2008-2009, which was the time he was still under team control. He then became a free agent and re-signed with Seattle in 2010, which is when he added the additional innings. He may have signed with Seattle to “make up for” his lack of earlier production due to injury, or not; regardless, that was a separate deal and its value shouldn’t be weighed against Adam Jones et al.

      Of course nobody predicted that injury path for Bedard, so we could (and should) still evaluate that trade on the day it happened assuming good health for all involved. And on that basis, it was still a disaster, as Cameron noted at the time.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • a seattle fan says:

        Yeah but everybody’s forgetting how the M’s turned Bedard into Chih Hseun-Thang (or whatever his name is) and Trayvon Robinson. Who is now Robert Andino. You can have your Adam Jones. We’re doin’ pretty well.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Twain says:

        Sorry, what were you saying? I lost my train of thought when I saw that you italicized et al.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  6. Antonio bananas says:

    Stupid ass trade for the royals. Odorizzi could be a solid 5th starter and Myers could surely be better than francoeur. So maybe don’t sign mediocre 5th starters for too much, trade francoeur anywhere for anything. Free up salary and sign better FA starters. They won’t keep shields long, so this is an even bigger loss. So frustrated and disappointed right now. I thought the royals had built a solid foundation, looked kind of like the 2008 Rangers.

    +7 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • AK7007 says:

      This X100 – Shields is probably a 4 win pitcher. He replaces a combination of players that accounted for 1 win (net gain 3 wins). Jeff Francoeur was a win below replacement. If Meyers replaced him and played league-average, thats a net gain of 3 wins. In terms of 2013 wins, this trade boils down to what Wade Davis adds to your team. Ick

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • MLB Rainmaker says:

      When was the last time a “top-tier SP for batting-prospect” deal benefited the team getting the prospect? The last one I’m coming up with is Hanley Ramirez for Beckett

      Matt LaPorta didn’t pan out, neither has Justin Smoak. Not Hak-Ju Lee for Garza.Halladay for D’Arnaud hasn’t paid off yet. Maybe Jesus Montero for Pineda is the closest.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  7. BlackOps says:

    On the bright side, more Jeff Francoeur smiles!

    +8 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Yeah says:

      He’s too cute to root against no matter how low his WAR goes, and he throws 100 dollar bills to fans, if only he were good at baseball too.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Well-Beered Englishman says:

        Can you explain how exactly he throws 100 dollar bills to fans? I have very little experience throwing money from a baseball field into a bleachers, and in my imagination it goes a little like this:

        “As an act of defiance, GOB defiantly hurled the letter into the ocean.”

        +24 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jason says:

        I think Yeah is engaging in hyperbole. He buys Pizza’s for the fans in the RF stands in visiting standiums, or at least he does in Oakland.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Yeah says:

        Love the AD reference, but in this case there’s a simple explanation, a rubber band. Basically he took an autographed baseball, took a hundred dollar bill, then rubberbanded the 100 to the ball and tossed it in the stands.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Paul says:

        Ah, “The Frenchy Quarter” will live on for at least one more season. Last year a guy wrote a song for him and they broadcast the guy singing it to him with a bunch of his friends sitting around. Frenchy just flashed the grin the whole time. It creeped me out just watching it. And made me wonder if Frenchy was sitting there thinking, “This is so cool that this random guy is serenading me with the song he wrote from scratch – and on TV!” or, “If I don’t play along this man will most likely bludgeon me in my sleep.”

        So there you have it. This trade boils down to, James Shields is good but Frenchy is still your right fielder. Sorry clowns, prepare for yet another long season.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  8. Josh says:

    You said that Shields is better now than Bedard was at the time of that trade. Over the last three seasons, Shields has been worth 11.2 WAR in 680.1 innings. Over the last three seasons before he was traded, Bedard was worth 13.8 WAR in 520 innings. The innings are massively in Shields’ favor, but Bedard was worth 2.6 more WAR despite pitching 160 fewer innings. I’d say that Bedard was the better, albeit more fragile, pitcher.

    +35 Vote -1 Vote +1

  9. Royals fan says:

    If only David Stern were here

    -words I never thought I’d say

    +5 Vote -1 Vote +1

  10. ralph says:

    I’m just surprised Friedman didn’t get GMDM to throw in Johnny Giavotella as well.

    +13 Vote -1 Vote +1

  11. theojd says:

    Overall, I agree. However, I believe you could be vastly underrating the Royals offense going forward. Hosmer, you have to believe will be better based on his great rookie season and his pedigree.

    Mike Moustakas had a mini breakout in the 1st half last year before struggling I believe. But again, it seems logical that he can improve based on his talent and youth.

    No mention of their outstanding young catcher, Salvador Perez, so far in his young career has been an excellent hitter.

    No mention of Lorenzo Cain who, after coming back from an injury that derailed most of his season, was pretty good.

    Add them to Butler and Gordon and that’s a pretty deep lineup.

    Now if you wanna say their rotation still sucks even with Shields, well I agree with that. It’s Shields and a bunch of big question marks…..but I think that offense might rake this year.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • ralph says:

      Catchers currently hitting .404/.429/.742 in the Venezuelan Winter League are rarely worth mentioning, obviously.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • paqza says:

      And they’d be a better team with Myers out there than 2 years of Shields.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Clifford says:

      Let’s see….

      C: Perez > Avila…i wanna see if 2011 Avila is the real Avila though first…if thats the case, this is more of a wash
      1B: Fielder > Hosmer…even if Hosmer has a huge breakout season, he still wont be as good as prince
      2B: Infante > Getz/Gia/Yuni?….yeah, no need to add more here
      SS: Escobar > Peralta….barely. and who knows if we see last year’s Escpbar
      3B: Miggy > Moustakas….ha. yeah.
      LF: Gordon > Dirks…they arent thaaatt different really, are they?
      CF: AJax > Cain
      RF: Hunter > Myers…oh wait, sorry, i meant Franceour
      DH: Butler = VMart…assuming VMart returns to 2011 form

      despite having a lineup that could “Rake”, they are still way behind the Tigers at virtually every position except catcher, maybe SS, and maybe LF

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Stuck in a slump says:

        That infield minus Infante is going to be dominating ESPN’s blooper reel.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • J says:

        Stuck in a slump: Not sure if I agree with the UZR completely, but Peralta has put up back to back +9.9 seasons. Split the difference between that and DRS (which puts him at a hair below average) and he’s still a plus defender.

        The corner infield defense is obviously bad but they’re very good up the middle. If the worst you can say about a team is that two of their defenders are bad, they’re probably a lot better than the Royals.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • craigws says:

        gordon is waaaaaaay better than andy dirks.
        it isn’t even remotely close.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • chuckb says:

      You’re reaching.

      First of all, Hosmer didn’t have a great rookie season and has no pedigree. He was a solid prospect and had a decent rookie season. He might turn into a pretty good hitter and will probably be better than he was last season. Expecting him to be really good is something altogether different, however.

      The bigger problem is that you seem to be expecting everyone’s best case scenario. If this happens AND this happens AND Hosmer turns into a star, etc. That’s really unlikely. Of course, all those things are possible. It’s possible that Shields will win the Cy Young next year and the Royals will win 90 games. But I’m not betting on that. Unfortunately for the Royals, Dayton Moore bet his team’s future on it.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Cidron says:

      I agree. Royals have up-and-comers (or at worst, very decent bats) at 1B, 3B, OF (cain), C, DH, and … adequate at a few other spots.

      For all the grief heaped on Franceour, some of it is earned, but, in my opinion, its alot of “what have you done for me lately”. Yes, he has a miserable 2012, but just as recent as the year before, he was quite decent, if not even better. Which one shows up for 2013, who knows.

      And, now they are addressing the rotation to take a load off an outstanding RP corps. It becomes a bit more difficult to point to a single facet of the on field product and say “Now only if they had higher quality there, they may compete”. No single glaring weakness on field anymore. Maybe OFF Field (looking at you Drayton and Glass) there exists such a weakness.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  12. Flharfh says:

    For what they gave up, the Royals should have asked for David Price. 2 years of Shields and 4 years of Wade Davis is just not enough for all that talent – and the Royals aren’t even saving a ton of money, neither of Davis nor Shields is making the minimum.

    +8 Vote -1 Vote +1

  13. marlins12 says:

    Mediocrity might be enough to win the mediocre AL Central.

    +6 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • asdfasdf says:

      Contrary to popular belief, the Tigers are actually a good team. The Twins and Indians bring down the overall strength of the AL central but that doesn’t mean it will be easy to win.

      +5 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Cidron says:

        they are? ok, they can hit the ball, and they can pitch it, but are you seriously saying that they are good at fielding it?!!

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Clifford says:

      yeah, the Tigers were pretty much awful in the first 2-3 months of last season…but with AJax, Prince, Miggy, Infante, VMart, and Hunter in their lineup, and Verlander, Scherzer, Fister headlining their rotation, they should win the division by at least 8-10 games

      +6 Vote -1 Vote +1

  14. Rippers says:

    Bud Selig should veto this trade.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  15. Slats says:

    Andrew Friedman> Dayton Moore.

    +35 Vote -1 Vote +1

  16. ralph says:

    I have to assume Myers either starts the year in AAA to learn the “Rays Way” or takes the other “Rays Way” and signs a Longoria/Moore-type contract and starts on Opening Day.

    Any guesses on what happens there?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  17. Jeffrey Loria says:

    Well done Dayton, well done.

    +44 Vote -1 Vote +1

  18. Z..... says:

    Wow. Now that the details are out, I can safely say that the Rays definitely won this deal AND they clear up close to $12 million for 2013. I have made it known my thoughts on KC trading Wil Myers in a deal for 2 years of James Shields and they dont just give him up, they also give up Odorizzi. James Shields is a good #2 starter, and his career numbers are comparable to those of Zack Greinke. Wade Davis still has a shot to be a mid rotation starter, but if that doesnt work, he profiles well as a closer. I’m not saying the Royals got nothing. I just think they gave up a little much for Shields. You could argue that a package like that might be the start of a package for a true #1 with 2-3 years of control. I am very surprised that the Royals did what they did. My assumption is that the GM was trying to keep his job, and doesnt care about the effects on the farm/future. When Shields leaves in 2 years or is traded next year, I wonder how this deal will look. My guess is that the Royals will be regretting not only letting go of Wil Myers, but Odorizzi as well

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • PatientObserver says:

      To Z….,
      I sincerely hope in the future that you don’t copy/paste your responses and post them on both MLBTR.com, and Fangraphs.com like you did with this response. Trust me, the whole baseball community isn’t waiting to hear what you have to say, nobody has read “what you have made known”.

      -5 Vote -1 Vote +1

  19. Ed Wade says:

    Dayton Moore is a terrible GM.

    +25 Vote -1 Vote +1

  20. Slat Attack says:

    Dayton Moore was raped and should contact Law Enforcement immediately.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  21. Rippers says:

    The Rays potentially just stole from the Royals. They got the Royals’ best hitting AND pitching prospects for a 30 year old pitcher (soon to be 31), with two years remaining on his deal. They likely won’t be able to resign him when that ends. Meanwhile Myers could end up being one of the best hitters in the AL for the next five or six years that the Rays will have him under control for. Add in that Odirizzi may well develop into a solid #3 type pitcher and the Rays won this deal hands down.

    +9 Vote -1 Vote +1

  22. marlins12 says:

    I feel like Dayton Moore’s problem has more to do with paying Jeremy Guthrie/Ervin Santana what he’s paying than this trade.

    If he would’ve made this trade and used that money more wisely, this trade would look better.

    But the Guthrie deal, specifically, is idiotic. $8 million dollars they could’ve used on a much better pitcher. Or perhaps on two cost-effecient pitchers in this year’s free agency class. Or a pitcher via trade. Jeremy Guthrie sucks.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Clifford says:

      no, youre pretty much wrong. paying Guthrie 8 million could end up being a good deal for them…from 2007-2010, Guthrie ammassed 13.4 WAR, including 3 out of 4 seasons with an ERA under 3.83 and WHIP under 1.23….last year, in 14 starts with the Royals, he went 5-3 with 3.16 ERA and 1.13 WHIP….plus, the single best thing about Guthrie?…his wife, bro…his wife.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  23. Eric Blair says:

    This deal makes AA’s swap with the Marlins look great. Toronto picked up Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonifacio and John Buck. The Jays gave up their 5th, 6th and 10th best prospects, plus a surplus pitcher and shortstop.
    If KC was doing the deal they would have thrown in Arnaud, Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  24. AJ says:

    It’s as if the Royals were so desperate for pitching that they would literally do anything to get it…seemed that way since the beginning of the offseason. I had hoped for the sake of Royals’ fans that they wouldn’t trade Myers unless they were going to get Price(or someone of his caliber) in return. Now they have to bank on so many things going right for this move to even work out, and I don’t see it as probable.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Cidron says:

      the ONLY thing that I can think of to defend the Royals is something along the lines of they knew something about Myers that the rest of the world didnt, and didnt want to expose it, and him to the baseball world at the mlb level, even after september call-ups, as he was noticably absent from the call-up list.

      Basically, as long as he stays in AAA, the world wont see him for what he is, hype, with little substance. And, now they have a chance to get something for him.. why not leap at the chance.

      No, it isnt what it is. Thats yet to be determined. But, its the only scenario that fits this trade (and no call-up at end 2012) that I can see.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  25. Andy says:

    Maybe I’m wrong but I don’t see this as bad for the Royals. Best case they get 2 pitchers that do push them over the top. But even if that doesn’t happen, they can still move Shields again at the trade deadline and likely receive at least some of this value back.

    I’m not particularly a Royals fan and I get that it is a lot to give up but as with all prospects they are if’s. If they turn out….etc. Let’s not forget that Hosmer and moustakas were as good if not better prospects than Meyers and haven’t yet fulfilled said talent. Also, once upon a time Davis was a hot prospect too. Who’s to say he doesn’t turn things on at 27(a typical age where people do).

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • AJ says:

      “Best case they get 2 pitchers that do push them over the top.”

      I think that’s the issue I find with the trade. Too many question marks as to whether it makes them a contender. At best it does, but it seems that the more likely outcome is that they are about an 80 or so win team. Basically good enough to not get the best draft picks, but not good enough to make the postseason.

      I would think that if a team is going to make a move of this nature, it better be near-guaranteed that it would put them over the top.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Andy says:

        I think the game is to volatile to make statements one way or another. How many saw the White Sox contending before last season? How many saw the O’s?

        I feel like in this day and age people over value prospects like they all will turn out to be what people hope. It’s entirely likely that 50% of the prospects never amount to anything in this deal. I think it’s fair to say that’s a better than average shot at happening given typical prospects turning out.

        Hypothetically, let’s say that happens. And let’s say the Royals don’t contend. Then you’re looking at trading Shields again at the deadline and you get maybe a slightly worse prospect than Meyers in return. Still, you’re probably talking about a top 50 prospect.

        I wouldn’t say the Royals got a good deal but I also wouldn’t say this is the worst trade ever. They still have outs where this can turn in their favor. If the prospects don’t turn out it’s in their favor. If Davis pitches better in the Central(realistic) his value could be more. And as I’ve said it doesn’t have to be an all loss situation with Shields even if things do turn ugly. They could realistically get 50%-75% of the value of this deal back by moving Shields at the dead line if they are lucky.

        So, that’s the opportunity cost to them trying to contend. Also, the off season isn’t over. Maybe they get lucky with some other signings.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Will says:

        If your goal is to be the 2012 Orioles, then there is something wrong with your plan.

        +10 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Clifford says:

        see thats the problem here…if the Royals tried trading Shields and Davis next week, do you really think they could land Tavares and Miller?…how bout Profar and Perez?…Fernandez and Yelich?….those teams would laugh…

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Baltar says:

        There is never a near guarantee. This gives them a shot (though unlikely) at the playoffs and a reasonable chance at 82 wins, which, if I were a Royals fan, I would be very pleased with.
        Yes, this is a desparate gamble, but with some merit.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Andy says:

        “see thats the problem here…if the Royals tried trading Shields and Davis next week, do you really think they could land Tavares and Miller?”

        But they aren’t trading them next week. They would be trading them at the deadline and teams are often desperate at the deadline. Shields is better than Dempster and the cubs got a fringe top 100 guy for Dempster. Malholm and Johnson netted the cubs an injured top 50 guy.

        So, don’t tell me the Royals couldn’t get a top 50 guy out of Shields. Would they recoup everything in this trade? No. But as I said they can get 50-75% of the value back if things don’t work out.

        Also, perhaps it’s just the cynical aspect of the internet but can we at least give the Royals some props for trying to contend? If they fail so what? This is a team that hasn’t been relevant for 20 years. Hording prospects in the past hasn’t done them much good either. Frankly, I’m happy to see teams like the O’s and Pirates returning to average and better.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • blahblahblah says:

      Santana (plus Chen and Francoeur, yay!) are gone in 2014… Shields, Butler, Gordon and Paulino (if still around anyway) are gone in 2015… Who exactly is going to be in the 2014/2015 Rotation and Outfield?

      This *might* help them gain more wins in 2013 (I would personally rather take the shot going with Myers+Odo instead of Shields+Francoeur this season, but whatever…) but starts undercutting the team in 2014 and really screws them for 2015 and beyond.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Travis L says:

      Unless DMGM can make a trade with himself, I think it’s unlikely he receives a prospect anywhere near Myers if he moves Shields at the deadline. Even then, he’s still down Odorizzi and Montgomery.

      Shields -> Myers, IMO, was such an overpay that I think it’s unreasonable to assume after 1/4 of his team control is exercised (mid season), he’ll get much more than a couple of B+ prospects for him.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Larry says:

      I can’t get through so many responses but why hasn’t Bubba Starlings name come up? Myers is a converted catcher so clearly not a terrific OF. This leaves room for a better player to come up in 2014 (sooner?) and they’ll still have shields. I wish they could have gotten more for Myers but price and Moore are not available without another major piece included from the royals.

      The point is Myers was expendable to a degree

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  26. Robbie G. says:

    Imagine if the new Dodgers ownership group’s very first move had been to hire away the entire Tampa Bay front office by doubling or even tripling their salaries. How many games/year would the Dodgers win in this alternative universe?

    Why doesn’t some big market team try to do this, by the way?

    +20 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Michael Scarn says:

      I feel like in the case of the Dodgers, it doesn’t really make a difference. It’s not like Colletti and co. are sitting down and crunching the numbers to determine player’s value and then give them contracts based on that, the Dodgers are clearly just identifying big names that they want, and then giving them whatever salary they need to make it happen.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • BX says:

        That’s true with the free agent signings, but the trades haven’t particularly been good (yet).

        Even if Greinke and Ryu were ownership, the infinite money could go a lot further with better GM talent.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Clifford says:

        i feel like youre missing the point of what hes saying. they dont need to have a better GM to allocate the money more wisely. they just identify the players they want, and then figure out how much money itll cost them to bring them in. period.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Pinstripe Wizard says:

        I think that being the GM of a team with deep pockets also has pitfalls. Is being the GM of the Yankees/Dodgers/Red Sox easier than being Friedman? Of course it is. Most people would probably agree that knowing automatically that you’re not going to have a chance to sign the Greinkes/Hamiltons of the free agent class every year is a disadvantage. However, Friedman can focus his time on a different level of player than Cashman or Colletti can.

        Take for instance the Rays past use of a closer by committee system. If Cashman came out and said the Yankees were going to use a closer by committee and have three or four different options every night, people would want him replaced. High payroll teams are almost required to contact to give out big contacts or face the backlash of “not trying to win.” This is not the best example, but take the Ben Revere trade for Philly. A lot of people consider the Phillies to have overpaid for Revere. If they had signed Bourn for 5/75, they wouldn’t have caught near the ridicule as trading for Ben Revere. Sending off Vance Worley and Trevor May wasn’t the problem. The problem was that they only got Ben Revere back for it. If a small market team had traded something similar for something similar in return, the response would’ve been that they made the move for Revere because they were priced out on Bourn. Would it have still been an overpay? Sure. Would people be as angry at somebody like Friedman as they were at Amaro? I highly doubt it.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • chuckb says:

      Theo Epstein’s feeling awfully forgotten since leaving Beantown.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  27. marlins12 says:

    @ Eric Blair…

    The reason why the Jays gave up significantly less is because they received bad contracts in the deal.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jake W. says:

      John Buck?

      Buehrle is marginally overpaid but the others are not. The Reyes contract is a steal, especially for a player who wouldn’t consider Toronto if he had the option.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Simon says:

        Buehrle is more than marginally overpaid. Buck is overpaid. Reyes and Bonifacio are good value and Johnson is a rental with risks.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • slackerjack says:

      This.

      Shields at AAV of 10.5 MM is conservatively undervalued by around 10 MM per season. If you think he’s equivalent to Greinke, it’s 14 MM.

      It’s possible that Moore believes that pitching prices are about to get even more ridiculous, and he’s trying to move early.

      The really baffling thing is Odorizzi. If pitching is so hard to come by, why trade away a MLB ready guy who profiles to be somewhat like Shields?

      The key to the deal might be Wade Davis. If he can go into the starting rotation and be effective, then the Royals bagged a total of 7 years of cost controlled pitching (2 for Shields, 5 for Davis).

      The deal that made sense to me (and probably everyone else) was Shields straight up for Myers. Not a great deal for the Royals, but somewhat defensible, based on their perceived immediate needs.

      And to be brutally honest, Moore probably could have have held out for Shields/Butler or Price for Myers + prospects. Although trading away Butler would not have fit their “win now at all costs” philosophy.

      Friedman deserves some credit for being patient. There must have been a ton of deals put on the table which were completely doable, yet he held out until he got himself a massive haul. Well played.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  28. Paul Sporer says:

    Not saying I like this for Royals, but it’s not necessarily the utter ABOMINATION it’s being portrayed as, either. Let’s not forget that Wade Davis was a 4-time top 100 prospect (thrice top 34 peaking at 17) and now everyone is pretending he’s worthless in this deal and that Odorizzi and/or Montgomery will absolutely be better than him.

    Davis was a better prospect than Odorizzi’s been and Montgomery was rated higher in previous years, but has obviously fallen way down. Neither is close to a sure thing (Monty being a lottery ticket at this point) while Davis is an actualized entity.

    The problem, of course, is that they may’ve just traded a star hitter for 2 years of a strong #2 SP.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Will says:

      His 2008 prospect status is totally irrelevant at this point. Do you know who was ranked one spot ahead of him then? Brandon Wood. There are now 2 full seasons of major league data that indicate Davis is not effective as a SP. Furthermore, he’s 27 years old.

      If he sticks as a RP, the only place he’s shown glimpses of his potential, he’s a pretty bad deal financially. He’s owed $15mil over the next 3 years (with an $8m 4th year option), which is more than most RPs are getting on the FA market this offseason.

      +6 Vote -1 Vote +1

      • slackerjack says:

        It’s not _that_ bad. The last three years on the Davis contract are all options, and the buyout is 2.5 MM. If he does not transition back to being an effective starter, total cost will be 2.8 (2013) + 4.8 (2014) + 2.5 (buyout) = 10.1 MM.

        If Davis does move back to the rotation and become a 3 WAR pitcher, the options in 2015-2017 will be cost effective (7 MM, 8 MM, 10 MM).

        However, that’s a huge if. Moore really should have focused on Myers or Butler for a pitcher. Allowing Friedman to expand the deal looks like a big mistake right now.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • baty says:

      Wade Davis is 27 years old. “Was” is an understatement.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Paul Sporer says:

        Y’all kinda missed the point on that one. It was less about Davis’ value (which isn’t non-existent) & more about the vagaries of prospecting. If we’re going to discount him because of how he panned out thus far after those rankings, why does a completely unproven Odorizzi who isn’t even ranking as highly get seen as a high impact prospect?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Clifford says:

        nobody is discounting him because of how he panned out as a prospect. they are discounting him based on his 2 years of below average-poor data as a starting pitcher. lets just cut to the chase. wade davis does not a deal make. at best, hes marginally better than whatever #4/5 SP the Royals would have tossed out there. more likely, hes the guy the Roayls bring in when Shields implodes in the 4th inning once every 5 starts.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • chuckb says:

      “thrice” rears its ugly head here at fangraphs!

      Must’ve been a fortnight since I’ve last seen it here!

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • That Guy says:

      The fact that he was on the list for 4 years was part of the problem.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  29. Settle Down Fellas says:

    Kyle Zimmer has been ranked above Ordrizzi by both Baseball America & John Sickel.

    Patrick Leonard was in the Appy League and far from amounting to anything yet. Also saying he was Mike Newman’s 8th best 3B prospect that he saw does not mean he was the 8th best 3B prospect overall so pump your breaks there sport. I stopped reading that series of articles since they were essentially meaningless …

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Clifford says:

      essentially meaningless?…hmm…lets see…does Newman ever say that his rankings are the end-all-be-all of prospect ranking like say, BA does?…by saying that you stopped reading his articles because they were essentially meaningless pretty much undermines the entirety of your argument…oh no, you mean someone is basically ranking guys based off what he sees with his own 2 eyes?…you mean he’s not just copying and pasting the same rankings everyone else has?…God, what an idiot.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Spike says:

        yes, the Newman report was essentially meaningless. They were rankings only of players he saw in 2012. If he saw only 15 3Bmen, he prob wrote about 12 of them… hence the reason why he had some obscure players in those listings. Referring to Newman’s rankings is silly.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • colin says:

        Information on prospects is clearly irrelevant unless presented in list format including all possible players.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  30. marlins12 says:

    I feel like the Royals actually have a shot to contend in ’13, really.
    The AL Central is nothing special.
    They need some of their hitters to breakout and they have the potential to do so. The bullpen is elite. They had weaknesses but no weakness bigger than that 5 ERA their starters put up last year.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • chuckb says:

      Everyone has a “shot to contend.”

      The question is, “is mortgaging the team’s future worth the incremental increase in that shot?” To most, the answer is an unequivocal “no.”

      There were other ways to achieve the roughly 3 win increase the Royals have gained from this trade and they didn’t involve trading Will Myers, Odorizzi, and the rest.

      +6 Vote -1 Vote +1

  31. Colin says:

    Hey anytime you can commit $37 million to two number 5 starters and trade possibly the top prospect in the minors, a potential number 3 and a guy formerly viewed as a top prospect for a #2 starter and a bullpen guy, you gotta do it right?

    +14 Vote -1 Vote +1

  32. blahblahblah says:

    What an idiotic move by KC…

    Myers is a flat-out stud. Odorizzi is already probably a fine back of rotation guy right now and could very well be a solid 3 in a year or two. Montgomery desperately needs a change of scenery and advanced training as he is stalled out completely, but if the Rays are willing to give him a quick heavy training and a confidence-boosting promotion to the bigs this year we could very well see a John Danks like reemergence into a solid middle-rotation inning eater. And while I’m not completely sure what to expect from 19yo Leonard down the road, the other three are all pretty much ML ready in 2013 with League Average production (in the least) a strong probability.

    The Royals though? Well, THE BAT THEY DESPERATELY NEED with 6 YEARS OF CONTROL is now gone… and instead, the team is apparently placing all its eggs in the 2013/2014 basket because 2015 is gonna be rough when they lose all of Shields, Gordon and Butler to free agency. Who exactly is going to be in the 2015 rotation now other then 36yo Guthrie and possibly Davis (if he isnt regulated to the pen)? And the 2015 Outfield will house who exactly???

    But possibly the biggest problem for KC? The team is still not the offensive threat it needs to be to overcome 3-4 League Average-ish pitchers in the rotation (Guthrie, Santana, Davis if starting and a below-average Chen) anyway, and two of those starters are going to need to be replaced for 2014 somehow.

    I just dont get it, I seriously have zero idea what the Royals are thinking. Well okay, I’m pretty confident Moore is pulling a Hendry; doing anything and everything he can think of to add some ‘names’ to the club in a last-ditch ‘hey look, I’m trying here’ attempt to keep his job. But why the heck is Moore even there anymore to begin with? He should have been gone a couple years ago already! (which, come to think of it, is also similar to the extra-long leash Hendry had despite unbelievably horrible moves 9 times out of 10)

    Sad day to be a Royals fan – the “process” is out the door and is now officially replaced with the “maybe we can buy a quick win increase to cover up our failed GMs poor performance” that has always worked out ohh soo well when tried elsewhere! …F*in Moore…

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Paul Sporer says:

      In what world is Montgomery MLB ready? Confidence-boosting promotion? That’s pure conjecture. Plus it’ll never happen. This team doesn’t rush prospects. Taking him from where he is now to John Danks next year is pretty pie in the sky. You basically paint the rosiest possible outcome for the Rays while entirely dismissing what the Royals got in return.

      I’m not suggesting the Royals *won* the deal as it stands right now, mind you. But I’m not sure it’s the doomsday scenario many are portraying.

      The bat they desperately need? They finished mid-pack in wRC+ last year despite Hosmer crapping the bed & Mous disappearing at the ASB. They were 9th the year before & 15th in 2010. Hitting isn’t their biggest issue right now espec. as Hosmer, Mous and Perez develop and go with established Butler & Gordon. To say nothing of Cain and Escobar.

      Meanwhile, they had a 5.01 SP ERA last year (5th worst), 4.82 the year before (2nd worst) and 5.25 in 2010 (2nd worst again). Seems what they DESPERATELY need is an arm. A high quality, front end of the rotation arm like Shields. Now they paid a premium for him, without question, but pitching rules the day in baseball.

      Again, I’m not saying Dayton fleeced Friedman here. It’s just not the blowout defeat most are suggesting. I think they covered the spread with a chance for more depending on how the prospects pan out.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • ralph says:

        I think there’s definitely something to this. I’m hoping someone somewhere analyzes from a projected runs scored vs projected runs allowed framework.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • blahblahblah says:

        Yeah, Monty is ML ready. He was supposed to be in the majors already, and is about to start his 4th year in the advanced Majors. Having him repeat AAA for the next 5 years isnt going to result in any changes, he needs the confidence boost more then anything if he is ever to get back on track. Other staled-out young-stud/hyped pitchers have experienced the same thing, including Danks and Gio off the top of my head… He could very well produce averagish production at the back-end of the rotation or in mid-relief by the end of this season or for 2014; there is nothing noticeably different in him today from 2 years ago and that indicates its something repeating the same locations isnt going to correct

        And yes, the Royals desperately need a centerpiece Bat, not more mid-rotation Pitching. They have (had) the pitching prospects who would have quickly turned into the average-to-better pitchers they are obsessively compiling now; they just didnt want to give them the chance – what they dont have is the above-average hitters to produce wins with an average rotation. What they did was trade the best bet for the well-above-average talent bat that would have been there in 2015 and beyond for a pitcher who wont. The “Process” was use all the (cheap) kids for as many spots as possible producing average or better results, and add a FA piece or two to finish off a contending team – instead 3 of the much needed cheap kids were just dealt on a 2 year rental of a 2-ish starter still riding a name-high from 2011 and a guy that is probably best used in the pen.

        But again, what is the 2015 team going to look like? What will that Rotation and Outfield be? With this move and the illogical additions of Guthrie (less questionable except for length and unneeded use of salary) and Santana (especially idiotic), the Royals have officially gone all-in on 2013 surrounding what will likely be an average offense with an average rotation – or, in other words, created about a .500 club… Is that worth abandoning the “Process” and basically completely giving up on 2015 for? Because that was the cost for probably about .500 in 2013!

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Paul Sporer says:

        It’s almost like you ignored my entire post. They have 2 established top of the order bats with 3 (THREE) more developing into potential centerpiece bats and still 2 others who are on a nice trajectory yet you’re standing firm that they desperately need a centerpiece bat? Hmm, interesting.

        Are you a talent evaluator with a team? How often have you seen Montgomery in person? Or hell, even on TV. My guess is you don’t really have enough knowledge of Monty to make these claims re: his readiness, but I’m open to hearing you credentials beyond a trip to BRef and some tenuous-at-best comps.

        I’m sorry, but it’s hard to take you seriously when you express with unfounded certainty that you KNOW Monty is MLB ready because “he was supposed to be in the majors already” and “he needs that confidence boost more than anything”. What are you talking about? What makes you so certain putting him in the majors to pitch every few days in relief and potentially get plastered is going to give him that magical confidence boost you’re making up out of thin air?

        I don’t know what the 2015 team will look like, neither do you. I do know this is a deep farm system that didn’t give away either of their top two pitching prospects and still has Bubba Starling, Aldaberto Mondesi and Jorge Bonifacio to supplement their budding lineup.

        Myers’ ceiling isn’t higher than Hosmer or Moustakas so if you think Myers is a centerpiece bat that they desperately need, then they already have two who are in the process of maturing into as much.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • baty says:

        @ PS

        After all that rhetoric, how can you turn around and say for sure that Myers has a lower ceiling than Hosmer and Moustakas?

        If the Royals can’t get Wade Davis to be a 200IP a year kind of guy through 2017, this deal is unfounded. At the very least, the Rays picked up over 20 years of low cost MLB service time, and some serious potential in future trade value. For good or bad, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Rays are already planning their hearts out for a long term deal with Myers, although I can’t figure out who his agent is…

        I would not be surprised if Shields is dealt again 8 months down the road.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Paul Sporer says:

        @baty – where have you seen it suggested that Myers has a higher ceiling than those two? I’m basing on reports I’ve read as well as seeing all three in person in the minors. I’m not throwing BS conjecture about confidence boosts and labeling guys who have been broken for two years as unquestionably MLB ready.

        I’m not denigrating Myers as any sort of scrub, just saying confidently that they didn’t DESPERATELY need a centerpiece bat like blahx3 suggested. Everything about this team & its composition points to needing a frontline starter quite a bit more.

        Like I said at the beginning, I’m not saying this was some amazing deal for KC, just that it wasn’t the slam-dunk, ripoff, fleecing, rape-job that most are suggesting. And I took issue with blahx3 only pointing out how great it was for TB (with some generous best-case scenarios including the LOL-worthy one for Monty) and basically dismissing what KC got back.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • baty says:

        I’m not arguing what the ceilings actually are… I’m only saying that it can’t be clear. My gut still says that Hosmer and Moustakas CAN be better, but opinion is really the only thing any of us have to go by at this point.

        I’d just say that all three still have relatively high ceilings.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • baty says:

        You are right, though, that KC definitely proved that they thought they desperately needed James Shields.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Paul Sporer says:

        “I’d just say that all three still have relatively high ceilings.” You say this as if I don’t agree or have argued to the contrary in any way. Or at least that’s how I interpret it on my end.

        Just because I don’t see it as the worst trade ever doesn’t mean I think Myers is the next Andy Marte. Though I think some believe he’s next the Trout/Harper and he is quite far from that. He doesn’t even have the highest upside among MLB prospects.

        He projects with first division starter upside making some All-Star teams playing a non-premium position.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • baty says:

        “Myers’ ceiling isn’t higher than Hosmer or Moustakas…”

        I was commenting specifically to this. Forgive me for nitpicking, but it’s conjecture when trying to differentiate the three.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Paul Sporer says:

        I stand by that. From everything I’ve gathered between reading evaluators I respect and my own (admittedly very amateur) scouting, I don’t think he has a ceiling as high as theirs. Doesn’t make him chopped liver by any stretch. I don’t think my analysis that leads to Myers a tick below those two in ceiling is on the same level as the conjecture spewed by blahx3 re: Monty being big league ready and all the garbage surrounding the need for a confidence boost, etc…

        Doesn’t mean my analysis will be correct come 2015-2016, just that it’s a helluva lot more grounded than the stuff around Monty that blah has brought to the table.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Shankbone says:

        Paul Sporer – I have enjoyed all your comments. Wil Myers contact rate is a warning sign that he might not be the elite player that everybody seems to think he is. The Royals have plenty of hitting prospects, and they need pitching. James Shields is being called a #2, which is correct, he pitches behind David Price. I agree with you that this isn’t the disaster being painted, and it trends neutral. Every team knows its own prospects the best, and Odo has been traded twice now. It seems like the assumption is the Rays are some prospect miracle workers, and all 4 of these guys are destined for the show. Myers most likely, and then it gets murky. I see Myers more as a Nick Swisher type with good power and low BA, don’t know how the OBP will turn out. Not a breakout star. The others? Eh, everybody always loves prospects. There is value in proven MLB pitching. If Wade Davis can get back on the bump, this could be a real win for the Royals.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Clifford says:

        this by far the silliest comment ive read so far on here. yes, the rays are very much prospect miracle workers…Longoria, Upton, Price, Shields, Jennings, Moore, Hellickson…you are most likely a royals fan, hoping, praying, you can somehow justify this trade as best you possibly can. lets get one thing straight here. in 2 years as a SP, Wade Davis had a 4.26 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, and COMBINED 0.4 WAR. hes a #5 at best. at best. get a grip. this trade sucks for the royals. period.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • blahblahblah says:

        @Paul Sporer from 3:30 am

        huh? I replied to every aspect of your post, you have just merely changed your argument after the fact while simultaneously completely ignoring mine.

        So, let’s see… the two “top of the order” bats they already have are… Butler and Gordon? You mean the guys who will be leaving?

        And 3 more developing? How do you get that? Perez isnt going to get much better then he was last year if he manages to stay healthy, and thats fantastic for a catcher, but hardly “top of the order”… What in his entire minor league career says such about Moose? 250 AB in AA with fluke power and BAbip? His current ML numbers are unbelievably similar to his Advanced-Minors track record outside that half-season fluke, and while a bit more power might eventually come, that still only leaves him as average-ish with the bat – not “top of the order”. Its much, much, much more likely he stays a Scott Spiezio/Eric Hinske type then becomes whatever fantasy you are claiming for him though.. And yeah, Hosmer might turn into a true force with the bat, but he will be doing so about the same time Gordon and Butler are leaving, so the net is a loss.

        In your first post you also pointed out that they “finished mid-pack in wRC+ last year” and went on to say they were average in 2010 and slightly above average in 2011 when seeing multiple hitters have career years with the bat. You should be able to see a pastern here; and there is nothing anywhere to suggest they will magically become above average when their (now) 1 long-term above-average bat will be expected to replace the 2 leaving… So all they had to do was give up on the “process” and their future to have average-ish hitting to go with their average-ish rotation for 1 year, then average-ish hitting to go with half an average-ish rotation the year after before what will probably be below-average hitting overall to go with a likely below-average rotation in 2015… Yippee!

        The rest of your post just goes into strange hyperbolic, ‘I desperately want to argue,’ land though. Find me 1 scouting report that says something is physically different/wrong with Monty. Find me one scouting report which says Moose (and probably even Hosmer) has a higher ceiling then Myers. And how the heck do you get a longterm “budding lineup” out of just Hosmer and a handful of average-ish to below hitters?

        Or lets just put it this way – are you even 100% certain Shields+Frenchy will out-produce Myers+Odorizzi being given a shot in 2013 instead? I mean, Shields might be good for another 4WAR, but Francoeur has averaged 0.6 the last three. If both Myers and Odo produced just league average production in 2013 then the combined value will have been the same. Where is the upgrade really coming from? And dont say Davis as he is clearly a bullpen arm which they are merely (possibly) going to experiment with in the rotation (after a much better evaluating team already gave up on the idea)

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Shankbone says:

        Clifford – The Rays hit on their #1 picks in 2002, 2006 and 2007. That’s great drafting. Upton is gone, Longo is locked and Price will be gone very soon. In fact, this Shields trade is a precursor to that move. But lets look at some names you left out: Tim Beckham, LeVon Washington, Josh Sale. The Andrew Friedman as genius meme gets worn out. The Rays are a great story, and very interesting to watch compete against the Goliaths of the AL East, no doubt, but they are not free from making mistakes. They haven’t graduated a single player to the majors in 5 years. That could change, but the way I see it, if they are going after Myers, they aren’t exactly sold on Mikie Mahtook to be the dude.

        Everybody wants to play JR GM and a lot of that is building a homegrown core from scratch. Love them prospects. I have to say if I was a Rays fan this trade would bum me out. Shields is a big part of their staff. Sure, Moore and Archer look great, but even stud pitchers have growing pains as you bring them along. And Price will be gone soon. Dreadfully expensive in 2014-15, and then he’ll get sold off for prospects. And that will be a shame, because he’s a huge part of their success. The dirty secret about the Rays is their minor league system was sort of bare. So they have more prospects, but these ain’t no blue chippers. I think Friedman should have scrapped together Archer and something and got a hitter on the trade market and kept Shields. The Rays got weaker, and its a precursor to losing Price, which will take a huge bite. Now how’s that for some silliness?

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Paul Sporer says:

        LOL blahx3. You keep suggesting Myers and Odorizzi will be league average player as if that’s not a MASSIVE feat for first yr players. You’re basically making it a given as opposed to what it actually is which is a real achievement.

        Butler & Gordon are there until 15 and 16, respectively. So yeah, they’re leaving in 2 and 3 years… if they don’t sign extensions. Again, all you’re doing is painting the rosiest picture for TB and discounting everything about KC. It’s pathetic.

        So Moustakas’ 300 PA at AA are a fluke, but Myers’ 150 are rock solid? Do you not realize how ridiculous everything you’ve said has been once but under any microscope? You’re really embarrassing yourself. I guess I should’ve have expected anything more from some named blahblahblah because your posts are the embodiment of that name.

        The burden of proof is on you. The things you asked for aren’t hard to find. Google, buddy. But go ahead and find a late-summer/fall 2012 report that say Monty is fine.

        You just said that Sal Perez is fully actualized at 22, LOL. Seriously, this is a waste of time.

        I stand firmly behind this: “Are you a talent evaluator with a team? How often have you seen Montgomery in person? Or hell, even on TV. My guess is you don’t really have enough knowledge of Monty to make these claims re: his readiness, but I’m open to hearing you credentials beyond a trip to BRef and some tenuous-at-best comps.”

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • blahblahblah says:

        Moose played about half a season in his first year and produced a 0.7 WAR – over a full season that is slightly below average from a hitter who probably wont ever be much more then an average bat. His first full year he produced a 3.5 WAR, nearly twice the average – most came from fielding, but again, Myers has a better bat and better bat then Moose = Average

        Hosmer played just short of a full season last year, and came just short of League Average with his 1.6 WAR.

        Will Smith pitched less then half a season and provided slightly less then half average at 0.7 WAR despite being a rookie.

        Mendoza, with his 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9, produced 1.8 WAR last year in his first full season after years of being minor-league filler

        Yeah, laugh all you want about the apparently “MASSIVE feat” that cant possibly be accomplished by Myers and Odorizzi – actual reality is not on your side though as its already happening all over the Royals roster…

        Also, Butler and Gordon are currently there until 2015, as Alex will decline his player option. At least one will likely be traded the season before though in an attempt to get back some value. At that point its Hosmer and a bunch of average-at-best hitters to go with a completely unknown rotation.

        Myers has produced 138-224 wRC+ marks in 6 of his 7 minor league stops. Moose has topped 140 once period, and has only topped 115 once since moving to advanced levels. You’re merely acting like you have a point, when in reality, you have absolutely nothing what so ever here…

        You are questioning me with hyperboil, so no, it is you who should google – find me even one report that says something has changed with Montys pitching other then the results. It shouldnt be hard since you are sooo sure of your assumption.

        Correct, Perez will not improve much over his 2012 production. He is a catcher and that will be taking its wear on his body, while he has never produced better then he has been doing in his minor league career. I would love to know where your assumptions come from though – just pure wishful thinking? Or do you think its merely common that hitters drastically improve over their minor league numbers as their careers progress? I mean, I cant help but have Soto in my mind when I hear the nonsensical ‘he just magically got better, and will just continue to get better and better’ like line with no actual facts to back it up…

        Lastly, what the hell are your credentials other then being someone who illogically wants to argue hyperbole with zero actual facts behind what you are saying? You havent given anything other then your personal assumptions; assumptions which go against the reality we have in our hands!

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Paul says:

        Couple things here on the Royals offense. First off, they were not middle of the pack in RC+. They were 11th in the American League. Comparing them to NL teams batting pitchers 400 times is of course silly. But the bigger issue is that they were 12th in runs scored, and had real problems scoring runs compared to teams with similar wOBA and RC+… because for the umpteenth year in a row they were dead last in BB%. Part of Myers’ strikeout issues this past season was that he took a lot of pitches, including third strikes looking. He has a very patient approach, and this team is just plain committed to having a team full of hackers.

        This team is simply not built to be consistently in games every night. It would be a huge upset for them not to win 81 games next year, but without professional hitters somewhere in that lineup besides Alex Gordon and sorta Billy Butler, forget it. There will be plenty of great comebacks, plenty of highlight reel stuff, not enough wins.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  33. eric says:

    This is the worst fleecing of talent I have ever seen. Good job Friedman. Fire Dayton Moore tomorrow.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  34. Dave S says:

    LMAO! and people laugh at Ruben Amaro and Ed Wade???

    for real?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  35. Chone Figgins says:

    I can play RF.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  36. Jeff Francoeur says:

    Job Security

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • blahblahblah says:

      Like it was ever in question with Moore at the big desk anyway…

      In fact, I wouldnt be surprised if Moore traded Myers just so he could make a “but we need to resign Francoeur, who else will play Right?” argument at the end of the season

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  37. Dayton Moore says:

    Errrr herp Derp Derp.

    +12 Vote -1 Vote +1

  38. ColKiner says:

    The trade isn’t a bad one for the Royals either. Their farms system has been kicking out bat after bat after bat with more on the way. The system hasn’t produced a pitcher anywhere close to Shieds since Grienke. At some point this team needed to turn in a few “Might Be’s” for guys that “are” The Royals added a #1 and a guy who will still pitch at the end of the roattion for a guy who they weren’t going to use until July becuase of Francouer’s contract and trade value. Welcome to the Big League’s Royals.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  39. longmatt says:

    Love Dave Cameron’s analysis here.
    1) The Royals got better
    2) The Ray are got worse
    3) Brilliant move by the Rays!!!!

    Prospects are prospects, Myers is going to be good eventually but a guy who K’s 140 times in AA/AAA is not ready for the majors anytime soon, sorry. And anyone who thinks Odorizzi was the Royals best pitching prospect is an idiot.

    -34 Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jose says:

      You just don’t understand baseball, you really don’t. Your posts at royalboard show that and this post just exemplifies how idiotic you really are.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Jason says:

      Don’t agree with the hostility of your post but I think you do have a point. Relative to MLB executives I think the Sabr community over values speculative future success over potential short term contention. As if you can keep accoumlating prospects and pushing a snowball of future awesomeness downhill until it all arrives in the major leagues at exactly the same time and manifests itself into a championship. Whereas the Royals probably thougth that this raises their playoff odds from 5% to 25% for this year and next.

      Also telling is the “Myers is a 2 win player now” claim. Maybe he is, but the same thing was said about Hosmer. MLB executives see value in estalished patterns of performance.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Clifford says:

        “As if you can keep accoumlating prospects and pushing a snowball of future awesomeness downhill until it all arrives in the major leagues at exactly the same time and manifests itself into a championship.”

        isnt that exactly what the Giants, Rangers, Rays, Nats, Braves, Cards, As, etc. have done?…

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • chuckb says:

        First of all, comparing Myers to Hosmer is a facile analogy. Hosmer was a pretty good prospect. Myers is one of the top 2-3 prospects in all of baseball. They’re not the same. And you’re right, Myers might not be a 2 win player now. He might be a 5 win player now, just as Shields might all of a sudden get old, or hurt his arm, and end up being a replacement level player now.

        The point is that this one acquisition does not increase the Royals’ playoff odds by 20%. Shields and Davis add 3-4 wins to the Royals’ total. It’s still possible that they make the playoffs next year and those odds have doubtless increased today but nothing on the scale of 20%. If everything breaks their way, they might be a .500 team in 2013 and to get there, they gave up 6 years of Myers and Odorizzi as well as whatever they might get from the other 2.

        Now, a .500 record to a team like the Royals isn’t nothing and it’s worth it to try and get there. But this is the wrong way to do it. If they manage to achieve the .500 record, it’s going to cost them hugely in the years to come. Those 3-4 wins are going to come at a great cost and, what’s worse, those are wins the Royals could have garnered w/o giving up Myers and Odorizzi by making smart acquisitions.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Pinstripe Wizard says:

        You can’t say Myers is a better prospect than Hosmer simply because Myers is ranked higher on a list from a different season. Just because Myers will be a Top 3 prospect this season doesn’t mean that he would be ranked that highly in other years, or that Hosmer wouldn’t have ranked that highly had he been a prospect this season.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  40. nyyfan12345 says:

    Possibly the most accurate title ever.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  41. Dan O'Dowd says:

    LOL

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  42. John K says:

    You would have to imagine this is a win now for Dayton’s job move more than any thing.

    Also, I’m a big fan of Dave, but a bit of this article bothers me.

    The Bedard trade is rarely brought up as the worst trade for prospects trade in recent memory. It was an easy comp, and that’s why it’s included. Which is fine, but don’t mention it as a haunting trade all MLB fans think of immediately when something like this happens.

    And, the tone of this article suggests the prospects sent are a sure thing, while suggesting Moose and Hosmer are done for because of their rough rookie seasons. Moose and Hosmer were once highly touted prospects, as well. (Maybe not Myers high, but still respected)

    I think this is a poor deal for the Royals, but prospects are over rated by the sabr community. A proven 3 and major league reliever with slight starter upside has legitimate value. For every player with Meyers and Oddorizzi hype, there are dozens of failed prospects.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Near says:

      You’re correct that we tend to overrated prospects, but that’s because good prospects offer the upside of cost-controlled, sustained production. In a competitive division, it’s statistically unlikely that any one team is going to make it to the playoffs. Teams generate playoff opportunities by fielding good teams year after year, and that’s what we see with teams like the Braves and Rays.

      By trading for Shields and Davis, Dayton Moore is trading future opportunities for a marginally greater likelihood of an opportunity today. And with what Dave Cameron has already said, the effect might not even be all that marginal.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Joe says:

      Could be because Dave was a Mariners blogger first and foremost so its the most salient example for him. Its still an apt comparison and brought up often enough.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • John K says:

        He’s not writing for a Mariner audience, though. He’s writing for a national audience.

        He says Myers is probably a two win player, while saying all the Royals offense consists of is Gordon and Butler. That, to me at least, is saying Moos and Hosmer aren’t offensive threats, meaning they won’t improve.

        And the any thing can happen to any player thing is so worn out. Why do we even keep up with statistics when any thing could happen? Because its predictive. A track record of success in the MLB is usually an indicator of future success in the MLB. (Obviously, age and other factors play in, as well.)

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • John K says:

        Apologies. Reply fail to chuck

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • chuckb says:

      This is Dave’s paragraph on Myers. I think he makes it clear that Myers is no sure thing.

      “Myers is a better prospect now than Jones was at the time he was dealt. He’s not a sure thing, of course — no player is, prospect, veteran, or otherwise — but he’s basically big league ready and has a promising future. The right-handed Jay Bruce comparisons aren’t too far off base. The concern about his contact rate can’t just be swept under the rug, but the power and athleticism are there, and he has a good enough approach at the plate that he can get on base at an adequate rate even if he hits .250. He’s probably something close to a +2 win player right now, and he has the ability to turn into one of the better right fielders in baseball.”

      Moreover, no one is a sure thing. The argument that “prospects aren’t sure things” seems to imply that Shields and Davis are sure things. They’re not. Pitchers get hurt all the time. 30 year old pitchers flame out all the time. Pitchers lose velocity on their fastball and become eminently hittable all the time.

      The “prospects flame out all the time” canard is worn out by those who defend trades like this in the name of “trying to compete.” This isn’t “trying to compete.” This is a GM overreacting, buying without considering the costs involved. Shields was an impulse buy and the Royals are going to end up with a hefty credit card bill.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • B N says:

      I think the big issue is the cost-difference, however. Prospects flame out all the time, but their cost is cheap relative to established talent. I mean, think of it this way:

      I trade away a guy like Shields (~$20m, 2 yrs, ~4 WAR/yr).
      Net value: 2 yr * 4 WAR/yr * $5m/WAR – $20m = $20m
      Net wins: 8

      I get a guy like Wil Myers (<$1m + $16m, 4 yrs, ~2 WAR/yr):
      Net value: 4 yr * 2 WAR/yr * $5m/WAR – $17m = $23m
      Net wins: 8

      This is assuming optimistically that Shields puts up 4 wins/year both years. It also assumes league-average play from Myers and only considers his first 4 years, assuming 2 pre-arb and 2 arb. It also takes a pretty pessimistic stance on Myer's salary (assuming $8m/yr in arb despite league-average play). Myers still comes out about $3m ahead, which is about as much to make it a wash.

      However, let's assume we've overrated Myers and he's only a 1 WAR player over 4 years (e.g. platoon guy, too many K's, etc). We have:

      Wil Myers (<$1m + $7m, 4 yrs, ~1 WAR/yr):
      Net value: 4 yr * 1 WAR/yr * $5m/WAR – $8m = $12m
      Net wins: 4

      That puts out a net $8m advantage to Shields in this case, but you're still getting positive value out of Myers. By comparison, let's see what happens if Shields becomes just an average pitcher:

      Shields: (<$1m + $7m, 4 yrs, ~2 WAR/yr):
      Net value: 2 yr * 2 WAR/yr * $5m/WAR – $20m = $0m
      Net Wins: 4

      Myers would put up an advantage of $10m at that point, just for being below average. So we end up with this sort from the standpoint of whoever owns Myers:

      Myers (avg) / Shields (good): +$0, +0 Wins
      Myers (avg) / Shields (avg): +$20m, +4 Wins
      Myers (bad) / Shields (good): -$8m, -4 Wins
      Myers (bad) / Shields (avg): +$10m, +0 Wins

      And this doesn't even consider the possibilities of Myers actually being an above-average player, only looking at him being an average to below average guy. One can play with the numbers to slightly tweak the outcomes, but half the outcomes favor Myers while only one of them favors Shields. I can't say that any of these outcomes seem that much more probable than others, either.

      Because of these things, both statements can be true:
      A. The Rays can field a team 4 wins worse in absolute terms by this kind of a trade (over 4 years).
      B. The Rays can come out $10m ahead even this situation.

      The thing about prospects is that their pay scales with their performance. So basically, they play worse, you pay them less. That's a big advantage compared to a guaranteed salary and pretty much drives the advantage. So I'd say both of these things are true:

      1. Prospect performance is highly overrated. Constantly. If every #2 starter prospect became a #2 starter, we'd need 100 teams to free up enough #2 slots.

      2. Prospect value is judged fairly, generally. I'd say that while people may not expand the decision tree in their heads, there's often a pretty good intuitive estimation of total value and cost.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • John K says:

        I agree with what 98% of what you wrote.

        I guess my original point was missed. Two years of a 2/3 type starter has value (Shields). Six years of a 2/3 type starter has more value (Od). But Od isn’t a 2/3 three starter. Some say he has the ceiling of one and he may very well become one, but you can’t assume that. What I have noticed when hearing/reading evaluations of this trade is a lot of people evaluate it as if Od is already there. Shields relative range of outcomes are at a higher level than Od.

        I originally said I didn’t like the deal. I was just pointing out that there is legitimate value in acquiring a player that has reached a point with a track record of success in the majors verse perceived ceiling.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • John K says:

        And that isn’t directed towards Dave’s article. Just what I’ve seen in general.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  43. ralph says:

    The thing that confuses me most about this deal is that every team was well-aware of the rumors swirling around Myers/Shields, and pretty much every team seemed to think that was not good for the Royals.

    So it’s hard to understand how another team didn’t swoop in with a better offer. I guess Moore just has that much love for Shields + Davis?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • blahblahblah says:

      What other team could have offered up a 2-ish starter with more then 1 year of control without his salary putting the Royals over their budget though?

      It had to be a really specific fit, which is why Shields was (so-blatantly) their #1 target (and why they were fleeced, as the Rays must have known they held all the cards here)

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • M W says:

        They are out there, the Reds acquired one from SD last year.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • ralph says:

        And the Reds actually have another one in Cueto, as well.

        And even though there’d be a bit of a position logjam, it’s hard to believe Rizzo wouldn’t trade Jordan Zimmermann for Myers.

        Would the White Sox deal Sale and his health concerns for a monster in-division gamble?

        How much of a step down from Shields is Ian Kennedy, really? With all the D-Backs pitching, they would’ve had to consider a Kennedy/Myers swap, right?

        And heck, if you’re just looking for 2 years of good cost-controlled pitching, might Dickey not be a better bet than Shields?

        So it’s not a huge list, but I’m still surprised someone couldn’t have swooped in to nab Myers instead.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • binqasim says:

        This is to Ralph @ 2:59 AM:
        Why would Rizzo trade JZ?
        We need to lock him up, not trade for an OF prospect.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • blahblahblah says:

        ralph,

        The Defending Champ Reds are not going to trade their best pitcher, so thats illogical. Similarly, why in the world would the Defending Champ Nats trade their best pitcher? The Sox are still trying to win and talking about the possibility of trading from their outfield depth to do it – not trade what is possibly their best pitcher…

        Ian Kennedy isnt really an upgrade over the average-ish pitchers Moore has already been stockpiling, and would not have cost anything close to Myers (If Arz offered Ian for Myers straight up though, I think even Dayton would be smart enough to laugh him out of the room. But he would have probably been the better overall target for the Royals, really, if they insisted on trading for another pitcher as they would still have Myers today.)

        And Dicky is a 38yo wanting a 3 year commitment while the Mets want an illogical fortune in return for him – unbelievably idiotic move if KC traded Myers for him.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  44. Owen says:

    The Royals are just the farm system for the Rays.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  45. Dustin says:

    This must be how The Royals get their draft picks to sign. “Just sign, don’t worry, you won’t actually have to play here”

    +20 Vote -1 Vote +1

  46. LRG says:

    The Rays are the best run organization in all of sports. BAR NONE!! It’s absolutely amazing. I would like to see them bring back Delmon Young. I think his best days are ahead of him still and he’s going to be the steal of the offseason.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  47. That Guy says:

    So the Rays have $10M to spend on pitching this year? I wonder if Roy Oswalt is available.

    As a Royals Fan, this trade makes me kinda sick. How hard was it to DFA Frenchy, stick Myers in RF, and sign Oswalt to the $13M they gave Santana?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  48. Bookbook says:

    I know it’s not recent history, but at least this isn’t Schilling, Steve Finley, and Pete Harnisch for Glenn Davis. That trade did in the Orioles for a generation.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  49. Tim says:

    Maybe it’s win now for Moore’s job, but I wonder if there’s also an element of win now before everybody else gets big TV contracts. The small markets have to know that they’re going to get creamed when all that settles out, especially if they keep running out teams that no one wants to watch in the meantime.

    Those big Rangers and Dodgers local TV deals might be the first sign of the end times for the Royals. We’re about to see economic inequality on a much larger scale than we have in the past. It’s not hard to look at that situation and decide to commit to the present, even if the odds are slim.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  50. Allard Baird says:

    I’M FREE, I’M NO LONGER THE WORST ROYALS GM IN HISTORY!!!

    +6 Vote -1 Vote +1

  51. miffleball says:

    it’s crazy to think that just two years ago hosmer was the #8 prospect in baseball and moustakas the #13 but now the royals have no shot at having a respectable offense that continues to improve.
    to top it off, shields, over the last 2 seasons, has the 9th most WAR among pitchers, so it’s not like he’s the barely a #2 starter being made out here. certainly he’s no verlander but he’s not exactly jeremy guthrie either
    certainly this trade carries risk (like most trades – if myers ends up more dunn/reynolds than guerrero his high K/good power won’t be worth as much, odorizzi blows a shoulder, the juju worship doesn’t restore montgomery to his potential #3 pitching ways and a raw single A player never develops, none of which are crazy), it’s just a matter of seeing how it plays out. There’s a reason most ‘horrible’ trades only become apparent several years later – if the players and prospects all flame out or all make a huge impact it’s usually forgettable.
    If you need to see just how unclear this is, in 2006, baseball america had these hitting prospects in their top: delmon young, justin upton, brandon wood, jeremy hermida, stephen drew, lastings milledge. Clearly lots of world beaters there with only upton not yet an outright bust. I just picked 2006 at random because I figured it wasn’t long ago, but long enough that players should be in the majors, but if you use 2005, you have mauer, young, ian stewart, joel guzman, casey kotchman, rickie weeks, andy marte and hanley ramirez. Again, way more total busts than future HOF. We’re gonna have to wait and watch to see how this one plays out

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  52. Ruki Motomiya says:

    This actually doesn’t seem like too bad of a trade. The Royals were 17th in wRC+, 19th in wOBA, 18th in wRC…that’s bad, but really middle of the road-ish bad, if Eric Hosmer becomes even league average and Mike Moustakas developes a little(.260 average + .320 OBP?), then they can probably get an average-ish or more offense out. James Shields is a pretty good pitcher, too: His FIP the last two years is 3.50 and his ERA bares that out, In addition, the Royals home stadium depresses offense: It’s third least in HR(92), though it gives up the 5th most doubles. Something fun to note is the HR shows a dramatic split: It gives up the second most HRs to lefties. But I digress.

    Wade Davis is also interesting. He was a reliever last year, but I could see the Royals trying him out as a starter with upside due to his age, team control and potential upside (He was considered a good prospect IIRC). Trot out a rotation of Shields/Guthrie/Santana/Davis/Hochevar and an average line-up and you give yourself a chance, I think. Especially since the Central doesn’t seem especially intimidating, save maybe the Tigers, and even a second wild card run would help revitalize the fanbase…

    If only they could get someone like Gavin Floyd or a league average right fielder too.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Basebull says:

      “If only they could get … a league average right fielder too.”

      Yeah, how do they get their hands on one of those?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Ruki Motomiya says:

        Your sarcasm is amusing, but not quite relevant, since the league average right fielder isn’t very useful without the pitchers they needed to give up for him in the first place, assuming they are trying to cobble together contention while Butler/Gordon are around. Plus, we don’t actually know if Wil Myers is league average yet, he could be better or he could be worse(His Minors numbers seem both encouraging and discouraging).

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  53. Brian says:

    Lost in the who won/lost the trade banter is the fact that James Shields is now already laughing all the way to the bank two years prior to hitting free agency. Instead of spending the next two years pitching a third of his games against the Yankees, Red Sox, and Toronto, he now gets to spend those two years pitching a third of his games against the Twins, Indians, and White Sox. Shields is the proverbial big winner in all of this (though likely not literally on the field).

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  54. TheCouga says:

    This trade isn’t that bad if the Royals actually sign someone to play RF instead of Francouer. Let’s face it…they weren’t going to get any top-line starter at all on the FA market. And Myers isn’t a perfect prospect–he could take a few years to really give the team a substantial boost. Maybe the Royals just decided it would be easier for them to pursue a RF replacement on the FA market rather than go after a big-shot pitcher.

    Of course, this reasoning is contingent on them actually going out and signing someone better than Frenchy to play RF. Ross might be a nice piece to add there. Or there’s plenty of corner OF that could be dumped in a trade. Someone like Shields would have gone for $20MM/year on the FA market, but a decent RF could be had for maybe half that price.

    I still think this deal is advantage Rays, but it might not be so terrible if it’s not the last move the Royals make, especially if Davis can move back into the rotation. His contract is team-friendly even if he only amounts to a #4/5 starter. And the Royals have a lot of people that can take a step forward on offense. With the Yankees/Sox in decline, Baltimore due for a bounce-back to mediocrity, and the Rays themselves being weakened next year due to this trade, it’s not that unfathomable that the Royals can hit that second wild card spot if they add another semi-significant piece.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  55. Jon says:

    Wow. Royals. Poignantly sad, all too typical. Many average Joe baseball fans could run that team better, and that is not message board hyperbole.

    As a greedy A’s fan though, i have to wonder why Beane couldn’t get in there with something starting with Brett Anderson (even the name would entice the Royals?) Or some package if not including Anderson.

    A crowded OF situation in Oak? Sure, but for such a deal moves can be made to end up with say: L-R Myers, Cespedes, Reddick, or Cespedes, Reddick, Myers, with Young 4th, trade Coco, or other way around if Coco would have it, (but then thinking about that, be better for everyone to trade him if that came to be.)

    But who here doesn’t think any year now Shields will have at least another one of his mediocre, “only” eating innings years, or at most (worst) fall off a cliff either because his arm fell off or he gets hurt? Shields is valuable and good, but not really good other than a few years here and there like last year, and prone to only slightly better than average years. And getting older with plenty of mileage and more and more injury risk due to not being injured much (unless you think not getting hurt with all those innings means he just has a blessed arm and should continue not getting hurt, i don’t know the answer to that, the science.)

    I really would not at all be surprised if in KC, without the day in day out pennant race clubhouse vibe, that Shields just won’t have that extra oomph to have a good for him year, instead yeah, too many left over the plate, not his usual control. Or get injured after going so hard for good team all these years.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Ruki Motomiya says:

      Shields has only had two seasons where he posted 2 or less WAR, one of which was his rookie season(With only 129 innings). Every other year he has posted 3.7 or more WAR, using Fangraphs WAR. His FIP has never gone above 4.39(Rookie year) and is 3.84 for his career. In addition, his last two years have produced FIPs of 3.42 and 3.47 with a sample size of over 450 innings. He also has only not pitched 200 or more innings once(Rookie year). Shields seems much more likely to pull 3.50 than to pull a horrible regression, I feel. His contract basically runs out when his bad older years will be coming in.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jon says:

        Most of his value comes from being an iron man. His stuff, the last two years, was very good. Most other years only OK, with again, innings pitched giving him value.

        My question, that neither response dealt with, is does throwing that many innings make him more or less likely to come down with injury?

        If the answer is “guys who can throw throw throw and never get hurt tend to stay that way,” then it could be a decent trade for the Royals if the kids don’t blow up.

        I would think arms that throw that much are primed for an injury or dead arm stretch, but i could be wrong. My feeling is between being in a loser environment and having so many innings recently, he could easily have a come down in KC (i’ve seen it too many times, you can say it’s non-science and i’d agree. But i’d still believe going from a good team to a bad one affects guys, something gets lost in the focus, the drive, it’s human nature.)

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Paul Sporer says:

      “Many average Joe baseball fans could run that team better, and that is not message board hyperbole.”

      Yes, it most certainly is.

      Even the most tuned in of fans would be WILDLY overwhelmed by the job and end up doing 2000x worse than even the perceived worst GMs in the game. Same goes for the job of manager. It’s the baseball equivalent of saying really good NCAA tm could beat the worst NFL team. The NCAA tm would be down 100-0 at halftime and have to quit.

      BTW, re: the OAK sitch, Jeff Passan tweeted out that Brett Anderson for Myers straight up was denied. https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/278021687289729024

      In fact, he said the same of a Shields-for-Myers deal.

      You kinda diminish Shields and cut him down a good bit from what he actually is as a pitcher outlining only worst case scenarios. And honestly, this is some pretty lame trash… completely worthless conjecture: “I really would not at all be surprised if in KC, without the day in day out pennant race clubhouse vibe, that Shields just won’t have that extra oomph to have a good for him year, instead yeah, too many left over the plate, not his usual control.” LOL, are you serious? Do you the know science behind that gem?

      The upside is that they have their best SP since Greinke:

      He is the only pitcher in baseball with six straight years of 203 or more innings.

      He is 1 of 4 SP w/an 8.4 K/9 & 2.3 BB/9 or better over the last three years w/at 600 IP (Lee, Hamels, Greinke … Shields’ 680 IP easily eclipses all three)

      He is 1 of 7 SPs w/four seasons of 215+ IP & an ERA+ of 108 or better (CC, Cain, Roy, JV, Felix & Haren)

      He is 1 of 10 SPs w/three seasons of 215+ IP & an ERA+ of 117 or better (group from above plus Lincecum, Lee & Hamels)

      Let’s stop pretending they were traded a slightly upgraded Luke Hochevar. Joe Blanton is an innings eater, Shields is a difference maker.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Jon says:

        OK, many above average Joe fans could, better?

        For one, any fan who wouldn’t make this trade right there is helping the Royals out more than their GM.

        Sure, the day to day is something real training can only provide, as far as GMing. But my point is, philosophically, many fans “get it” in ways the minds in KC just. do. not.

        Disagree with that? How? This is a club that plays in a weak division. They have top draft pick after top draft pick, or close to the top if you want to be technical and that way. Yet for decades they lose lose lose.

        You really don’t think (OK, above average) many fans couldn’t do better? Overly respect authority much?

        As for the A’s tip on this, i think a package of more than just Anderson could have gotten it done. I’m just curious how seriously Beane approached it, but we’ll likely never know.

        As for my non scientific trash about how the psychology of winning, losing, moving to a new group after being used to a winning group…how it all can negatively affect a player, i stand by it’s non scientificness.

        Sure, he could come in and put up basically the same numbers (likely better contextually due to division) and i wouldn’t be surprised, but i wouldn’t be surprised if there’s regression due to arm fatigue and just being in a more depressing environment. Somehow focus and drive change under those conditions, it’s human nature.

        As for if i’m underrating Shields. I hear you about his #s being really good, especially the last two seasons. But before then he was really mainly getting his value through eating lots of innings and being good not really good.

        So, what is he? I openly asked the science question earlier. Does throwing that many innings make him more likely to continue since “he just has one of those strong arms that don’t get hurt,” or is he due for some arm/shoulder/elbow issues?

        Yes, it’s “feel” combined with stats to think what i think. We’ll see. If he does indeed regress and perhaps deals with injuries more than he did in TB, remember this.

        And if he doesn’t and pitches well, i’ll remember being wrong about it too, deal?

        My point is you can rely on stats, i believe in stats. But stats only report the past, and there are human psychology/physical issues that i think can be factored in, such as huge amounts of innings thrown recently with no big injuries, and going from an incredibly run organization that has the team in the race therefore in that mindset every year, to an organization that is THE definition of loserdom, and all that does to eat away at the focus many players use to have great seasons.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  56. deezy333 says:

    Rays AAA rotation in 2013: Archer, Odorizzi, Colome, Montgomery, Torres

    That’s probably better than the Astro, Marlins, Twins, or Rockies

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  57. brad says:

    So ignoring the money involved, it’s basically a trade of 20-40 wins over 6-7 years for 10-15 over 2+ years.
    Then there’s the money.
    This is as much an indictment of the Royals ownership as Dayton Moore. He wants to keep his job, they should have been the ones to tell him it was too late and he’s fired when he brought this trade to them.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  58. Akshat Sethi says:

    Trading is obviously not an easy game to play. It needs your dedication, concentration and full proof strategy to carry on your business. And when it turns to Royal ownership, the steps involved become much more difficult.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  59. Larry Andersen says:

    Now, who does Hosmer get traded for?

    A. Wilton Lopez
    B. Heathcliff Slocumb, or
    C. ……..wait for it…………………….
    …………………………………………..
    ………….JAMES LONEY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    HAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  60. Alex Anthopolous says:

    Seriously TB, that’s all you got?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Larry Andersen says:

      Alex, you got to deal with the Antichrist. Dayton Moore is no such man. He’s just the last surviving member of the Lou Gorman Give Me a Night Full of Glenlivet and I’ll Throw in Any Prospect You Want Club.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  61. Larry Andersen says:

    Well-Beered Englishman,

    How many beers would you need to accept the deal that TB offered Dayton Moore?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  62. gouis says:

    If the Phillies did this we would have a hundred comments calling Dave stupid and talking about what a big game pitcher Shields is.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • James says:

      The Phillies have no prospects to trade

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • cable fixer says:

      Yeah, that’s not even close to being correct. For one, when they dealt for Halladay they were just in the WS and were borrowing for the future to pay for the present. Was the price of Gose/Drabek/D’Arnaud steep? Sure, but if you’re not willing to make that deal, then you might as well put the team up for sale and go home.

      Moreover, Shields is not Roy Halladay. *Maybe* D’arnaud=Myers…but that’s probably a stretch too.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  63. Ian says:

    In Dayton Moore’s defense, maybe the PTBNL is Matt Moore.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  64. Jaack says:

    Hey, at least now the Royals only need to free up one more outfield spot so they can add Delmon.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  65. Sam says:

    Okay I think this will at least turn out better for the Royals than the Jones/Bedard trade did for the Mariners. Banking on Hosmer Moustakas and Santana to improve is going to get you a lot further than banking on Richie Sexson, Jose Vidro, and Carlos Silva. That said, I still think the Rays made out like bandits for what they had to give up in return.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  66. Nathan says:

    If you’ve ever thought, “Let’s turn our entire farm system into two years of James Shields,” you’re just like Dayton Moore.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  67. Nathan says:

    To those who are saying this deal isn’t that bad:
    Two years from now, all the Royals will have to show for this deal is the option to pay Wade Davis $25M over 3 years. The Rays will have, in all likelihood, five more years of team control of Wil Myers.
    You really have to wonder why the Royals wouldn’t just sign someone like Anibal Sanchez (reportedly wants around 6/90, so $15M/year) and let Odorizzi pitch in the bigs. The Sanchez/Odorizzi combo might be a touch worse than Shields/Davis and cost a touch more, but at least they wouldn’t have traded a stud prospect and a couple high-upside fliers.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • chuckb says:

      Because it would be Sanchez/Odorizzi/Myers. It’s probably about equal, you’re right.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • blahblahblah says:

      If Odo is even average in 2013, then Sanchez+Odorizzi is better then Shields+Davis (who can not start, the Rays already know this and the Royals will figure it out really soon…). The added bonus of replacing Frenchy with Myers is priceless though.

      All of these problems really go back to the Santana trade though. His asinine contract for average-at-best production is what ate all the money they had to spend. This led to trying to find cheaper arms to pair him with; enter the illogical money spent on Guthrie over the next 3 for no real noticeable improvement. All that money plus what they will now pay for Shields and Davis could have easily meant a real front starter (like Sanchez) without having to give up the best bat in the minors and a couple arms who would probably be Guthrie/Santana level capable if given a year of unwavering experience commitment.

      2014-2016 could have been really bright if they had stayed the course. Now 2013 is a pure crapshoot and everything after will likely be perpetual rebuild mode again as everyone starts to leave

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Nathan says:

        The Guthrie/Santana contracts just make almost no sense. For the money they’re paying those two guys plus Shields and Davis this year ($29.8M, and that’s including the fact that only $5M of Guthrie’s 3/25 deal gets paid this season), they could easily have signed Greinke at $25M/year or Sanchez at $15M/year and filled in the spots around with Odorizzi, Paulino, Danny Duffy (when he comes back, of course), etc. There’s a very solid chance the latter group would outperform the former group at the same price without, again, having to give up Wil Myers and other potentially valuable prospects.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • blahblahblah says:

        Yeah, Santana and Guthrie will make a combined 38MM from the Royals – that is the first two years of a Sanchez contract right there!

        And I have no doubt that they could have signed Sanchez and used internal kids to produce at least passable results for 2013 with a much, much better 2014 on the horizon.

        If you are a small market team, the entire point of having young, cheap, controllable talent which should produce at least average-ish results is to keep it and build around it – not sacrifice it to bring in average-ish talent returns or short-term fixes which ignore the larger issues. Disaster offseason here…

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  68. Heather says:

    Per MLBTR, Beane turned down an Anderson for Myers swap. The Anderson who was hurt last year, and throws his slider almost 40% of the time. Ticking time bomb Anderson.

    If Beane turned down such a swap, I think we have to consider the possibility that perhaps Myers doesn’t have the trade value we think he should have….

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Clifford says:

      dont believe everything you read on MLBTR

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Heather says:

        Well, it was actually Jeff Passan, as reported on MLBTR. Of course you don’t believe everything you read, but I see no reason to dismiss it out of hand either.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • jcxy says:

      Forget the rumored details of the As haul, I think you’re on to something here. I mentioned this below, but every offseason Justin Upton is on the table and the offers simply don’t come as we think they should.

      Now…
      I think that means you should stick with Myers rather than taking the market deal…but it is an interesting thought that we’re in a bit of a prospect bubble.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  69. Matt says:

    Why do I feel like I’m reading hyperbole every time I see something on FG involving the Rays?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • cable fixer says:

      Because they win in a tough division with a shockingly low payroll and make innovative deals with young players. They exploit market inefficiencies and turn guys like Fernando Rodney into…well, the opposite of what we thought he was.

      If they’re a mark against them… don’t draft particularly well. But this isn’t Seattle 2009. This is a FO that has *earned* our respect from their results.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • colin says:

        So we’re not only willing to give the Rays full credit for signing Rodney but also for turning him into a great pitcher? I think that’s a little overboard.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  70. Ben Revere says:

    Pretty extensive set of comments here, didn’t read every one so this may have already been mentioned. I think its a foregone conclusion that GMDM has some skills at managing drafting and development for a major league team and not many skills at managing major league roster building, specifically trading and signing players. He repeatedly seems to not get how to properly value major league talent, either with the deals he signs, or with the trades he makes. It leads me to believe that the vaulted minor league system he has built up in K.C. is mostly due to having repeatedly high draft picks, not trading any talent away until now, and probably a good set of scouting and drafting personnel. Conclusion – He’s an all around bad GM, who got lucky in putting together the minor league system he did through “right place, right time.”

    What I’d be more interested to know, is what role ownership played in pressuring him to make this deal. I doubt they came down and said trade Myers and get veteran pitching. But, I’d wonder how much of a win now mandate he has and how much that influenced him to trade young talent for established players. Especially considering that he likely didn’t have the payroll available to sign someone as good as Shields on the open market. Its clearly a mistake. Being in a small market like K.C. with a frugal ownership means that K.C. absolutely has to hang on to their young talent and not trade it away for older players. They need to supplement the young talent with shrewd signings and trades to address weaknesses (ie: pitching). Nothing they’ve done this offseason qualifies as shrewd in any sense of the word.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  71. Adam says:

    Still don’t think this is as bad as the Guthrie signing. Do this deal and spend half the Guthrie money on Jeff Keppinger (who signed for 3yrs/12mil) and using him at 2nd & 3rd (and in a pinch SS but not often) to add another veteran bat (and an underrated one at that) in the lineup. I like that roster better and they save 13 million.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • chuckb says:

      Is this how we’re to assess future Royals’ transactions? Is it better or worse than the Guthrie signing? How much better/worse?

      Pretty low bar for Moore’s successor to reach.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  72. Bad Bill says:

    Maybe the real problem here is that Moore has been watching too many movies. In his imagination this may look like a remake of last winter’s blockbuster, with himself in the role of Walt Jocketty, Shields playing Mat Latos, Myers playing Yasmani Grandal, etc. The fact that none of these actors in “Blockbuster: The Sequel” bears much resemblance to the ones they replaced may not matter to the guy making the movie. (Yet.)

    I do wonder, though: might Moore know something about Myers that we don’t? The only credible explanation I can see for this trade is that Kansas City has reason to believe that he isn’t going to be as good going forward as he is generally expected to be, so that they’re selling high. Moore may also think he’s John Mozeliak and casting Myers in the role of Colby Rasmus. The fact that we see little from our vantage point to equate Myers and Rasmus is not necessarily definitive, and with a year and a half of Rasmus mediocrity in the tin in Toronto, one can argue that the Cardinals did see a problem there. The fact that the winter-2012 Royals bear no resemblance to either the winter-2011 Reds or the mid-2011-season Cardinals certainly takes the edge off the analogy, to put it mildly, but Raz is still out there as a cautionary tale.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Ruki Motomiya says:

      Maybe they were unimpressive by his Minors numbers? The only one that seems very good is his HRs with that inflated BABIP…

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  73. RedsFan says:

    Might it make sense to take a look at the last time the Rays traded a controlled starting pitcher for a propsect haul? E.g. Matt Garza for prospects & throw-ins?

    At the time, I vaguely recall most commentators saying the Rays won that deal … but have Archer, Hak Ju Lee, and the others panned out?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Clifford says:

      yeah and Garza’s been a real stud for the Cubs….

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • SKob says:

      According to the brilliant people involved in this article, lose-lose would be the upside of this trade for the Royals.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • B N says:

        Naw. If all the guys involved died in a plane crash today, the Royals would be stuck holding the bag on $27m in salary. The Rays? Scott-free. Advantage: Rays. :)

        With that said, I don’t see this currently as “horrible trade.” It’s not a good trade and the timing of it is HIGHLY questionable, but it’s not such a bad trade that I would say a team should never do it. If the Expos had made this trade, it would be better than the Colon one (which was as understandable as it was bad).

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  74. Chris says:

    I think your analysis is dead wrong on this trade and believe both teams got a good deal. For the Royals this does vault them into contention. The Royals starting staff is conservatively 60 runs better than last year. That alone places the Royals at around .500 using Runs Scored/Allowed. Throw in a young core of hitters who are more likely to improve than regress and the 2013 Royals should be in the hunt for a playoff berth.

    They gave up a haul of talent, but neither Odorizzi or Myers would have vaulted the Royals into contention in 2013-14. In addition, the Royals gave up a RF and #3-#5 starter from the 2015-17 roster. Neither of these losses mortgage the future of the franchise to compete for the playoffs 2015-17.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Eminor3rd says:

      How is the staff 60 runs better? Did you see what Ervin Santana did last year? You know they already had Guthrie, right? And that Guthrie pitched over his head.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Chris says:

        1) Mendoza / Guthrie / W.Smith / Sanchez / Teaford / Duffy / Paulino / Odorizzi / Mazzaro / Adcock / Verdugo threw 534 IP and 279 ER as starters in 2012, a 4.70 ERA.
        *Sub in Gutherie/Shields/Santana at a 4.00 ERA and that is 42 runs better.

        2) Chen/Hochevar threw 377 IP and 226 ER, a 5.40 ERA. If the group of Chen / Hochevar / Davis / Duffy / Paulino with a 5.00 ERA in 2013 is 18 runs better.

        Thus 60 runs conservatively from the starting staff.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • chuckb says:

        That statement is laughable.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • blahblahblah says:

        @Chris

        As starters, the Royals produced a total of 7.6 WAR as starters last season (162 starts from Mendoza +1.7, Guthrie +1.5, Houchevar +1.5, Chen +1.3, Paulino +.9, Smith +.7, Mazzaro +.5, Duffy +.4, Adcock +0, Odorizzi +0, Verdugo -.1, Teaford -.2 and Sanchez -.6)

        The last 3 seasons, this is what the current starters have averaged
        Shields – 3.7 WAR
        Santana – 1.40 WAR
        Guthrie – 1.87 WAR
        Chen – 1.40 WAR
        Hochevar – 1.83 WAR
        Mendoza – 1.80 WAR (in only season as starter last year)
        Davis – cant start, and any starts given to him will be negative WAR

        We will leave the Davis experiment out and instead go with the more positive-value rotation of Shields/Santana/Guthrie/Chen/Mendoza ~ thats 10.1 WAR or about 25 runs better then what the Royals got out of their 2012 starters.

        How you stretch 25 runs into 60 is beyond me…

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Chris says:

        @blah

        Your 25 run assumption for the starting staff is laughable. That translates into a starting rotation with a 2012 ERA of 4.99 improving to 4.74. My 60 run improvement translates into 4.50.

        I believe the Royals have 3 starters Shields/Guthrie/Santana that will have a sub 4.50 ERA. On top of that, I believe the options for the last two rotation spots dramatically improved, if for no other reason than depth of options. I believe the #4 & #5 spots will do no worse than a 5.00 ERA. Run the numbers, make projections for the seasons you expect from this rotation. If it is only 25 runs improvement, then somebody’s arm fell off their shoulder. This rotation is much more than a 25 run improvement. Not starting a bum like Sanchez is worth 25 runs alone. This rotation has competent starters 6-7 spots deep and it will pay off because there is depth to absorb unexpected shocks.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • blahblahblah says:

        Chris, its merely the actual stats we have. I used the actual Runs produced last season for the Royals Rotation against the 3 year averages for the 2013 staff.

        Remember too, Sanchez, for as bad as he was, was no worse then Guthrie to start the year – hence their being traded for eachother. Jeremy had a fluke first half, sure, but his second half (which you seem to be weighing too heavily) is perfect regression to a normal Guthrie season when looked at as a whole. (the biggest repeatable difference between the two halves is the BB rate, which perfectly averages to his normal)

        I would also point out that based off ability and resent results, there is just a good of a chance that none of Shields/Guthrie/Santana has a sub-4.5 then all of them doing it. After those three it also gets really ugly because of injuries (Duffy, Paulino), questionable pitchers who they are desperately trying to trade (Chen, Hoch) and a bad experiment that the Rays already know the bad results of (Davis).

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Chris says:

        @blah

        Shields 5 of 6 seasons sub 4.50
        Guthrie 4 of 6 seasons sub 4.50
        Santana 4 of 8 seasons sub 4.50

        I’d say the odds of all three being below 4.50 as opposed to all three being above 4.50 are better than a coin flip.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • blahblahblah says:

        Youre going off ERA though, which is the worst predictor of future ERA. If you look at FIP and xFIP you see this

        FIP Guthrie – (2008) 4.53, 5.31, 4.44, 4.48, 5.10 (2012)
        xFIP Guthrie – (2008) 4.48, 5.13, 4.60, 4.47, 4.75 (2012)

        FIP Santana – (2008) 3.30, 5.02, 4.28, 4.00, 5.63 (2012)
        xFIP Santana – (2008) 3.48, 4.55, 4.31, 3.93, 4.48 (2012)

        That does not point to a pair of guys who should be expected to be under 4.5 moving forward (especially at the ages of 34 and 30, respectively)

        Now Shields is more likely, but even he is a bit of a question as he has continually proven an ability to under-perform (to greatly under-perform) his rates with below-average (to sometimes extreme) HR rates and fairly hittable (to tee-ball level) stuff. If he is 1.20+ with his WHIP and over 1.1 with his HR/9, he will be a coin-flip too (he has kept it in check the last too, so maybe he has turned a corner, but he did similar in 07-08 before regressing too so…)

        Besides, you cherry-picked seasons anyway. Do it only for the last 4 seasons and you see how much of a coinflip it really becomes

        Shields – 3/4 (2/4 above 4.0)
        Guthrie – 3/4 (barley, with 3/4 being over 4.30)
        Santana – 2/4 (with 2 over 5.0 while playing in one of the most pitcher friendly parks in the AL)

        I honestly figure its really doubtful Santana does, Guthrie will be right around there on either side and Shields probably will… but its almost certainly statistically more likely they all end up over 4.5 then all under based off history, ability and the normal aging curve of 30yo+ players (which they all are)

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Paul says:

        Blah: I agree with your take in general, but it’s not true that ERA is the worst predictor. Over time it is the best. All of these guys have had multiple seasons of stats for that relationship to hold true. And SIERA is a better predictor than xFIP.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  75. jcxy says:

    So here’s my question:

    Why was every team not beating down the doors here of the Royals? Every offseason we see Upton on the block and we’re always surprised what the offers are…typically on the low end.

    I’m going to assume that Moore shopped this deal. And no one topped it? Did potential acquirers of Myers potentially see it as a red flag in that the Royals want to move him?

    Can we conclude that this deal pretty much the going market rate for someone like Myers? (Which certainly shouldn’t be misconstrued for an endorsement of the deal…but at least a partial explanation for why the return feels…light?)

    I don’t get it

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • SKob says:

      Most pitchers who are better than Shields are on a team that can afford to keep them. And most teams who can afford to keep them aren’t going to put their faith in guys who have ZERO success at the big league level!

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Nathan Biemiller says:

      As crazy as it sounds to imply that a major league GM would make a trade on name value, it almost seems as if that’s what Moore did here. Shields (and Lester, who was also discussed) might have been the biggest name—not necessarily the best starter—Moore could get for Myers, so he went ahead and did it to the (almost certain) detriment of the club.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  76. Erick W says:

    Happy birthday, Wil Myers!

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  77. bjs2025 says:

    As a Cardinals fan, I am very happy teams like the Royals, Red Sox and Dodgers exist. Part of the reason we thrive is a conservative approach. The other part is these teams being overwhelmingly too aggressive.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  78. Eminor3rd says:

    But hey guys, Morosi/Heyman/Rosenthal love this deal.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  79. jjdouglas says:

    Everyone say it with me, “Kansas City Royals, You’ve Been Friedman’d.”

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  80. jcxy says:

    Crowdsource:

    Shields is a FA this winter. He gets what? O/U 4/75??

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Greg says:

      That sounds about right. Might get an extra year for slightly less AAV, but that’s pretty close. $17.5 to $19.75 per year range sounds about right.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  81. wilsonm24 says:

    ” And Mike Newman just rated Patrick Leonard as the eighth best 3B prospect he saw this year, noting his power potential and the fact that he’s already showing some plate discipline at a young age. ”

    If he only saw eight 3B this year then that isn’t a very ringing endorsement, actually it isn’t a ringing endorsement no matter how many he saw, unless he saw all of them.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  82. Justin DeShon says:

    I disagree. 2 years control of Shields and 4 for Wade Davis. Myers could have helped the outfield but he is just a rookie. KC has watched Hosmer and Moustakas go through growing pains and wasn’t willing to wait on Myers.

    As a KC fan I applaud it. I am tired of prospects and the future. It was passing us by because rookie pitching isn’t gonna get it done right now. (Will Smith, Odorizzi, Montgomery) Hochevar, Chen, Paulino, Francouer can be dangled now

    Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Salvador Perez and an emerging Alcides Escobar with the additions of Shields,W. Davis, E. Santana. It has the look of a team that belongs and can compete daily.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  83. Bill says:

    Great deal for KC. They get proven veteran grit and winning intangibles. TB gets more wing-and-a-prayer prospects. We’ll see if they amount to anything. But KC now has an ace with playoff experience. TB has more maybe-possiblys and still no WS ring

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  84. bjs2025 says:

    Guys, I just realized we are looking at this all wrong. Harold Reynolds just explained on MLB Network that “The Royals went 72-90 last year. So reversing that record to 90-72 would take 18 wins. So all your asking James Shields and Wade Davis to do is win 9 games each.”

    I now realize that the Royals ripped the Rays off.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  85. Bob says:

    The strength of this deal depends on what happens over the next few weeks and months.

    If the Royals stand pat and do not improve their team any further this offseason, then this deal looks horrible. If, instead, the Royals go out and sign a couple good outfielders on the free agent market (they will probably need to overpay to get that done), then all of a sudden they look like they can compete in the AL Central.

    If the team is serious about competing, then they will sign players like Bourn, Ross, Swisher, or Hamilton. If they are not serious, then this deal will look as bad as everyone is saying.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Pinstripe Wizard says:

      This team can be improved a lot more easily than signing one of the big name free agents. DFAing Frenchy and putting the ghost of Matt Stairs in right field would probably help.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • tz says:

      Couldn’t agree more. IF the Royals upgrade their outfield, 2B, and add more quality major league pitching, then they can justify this trade better.

      If they could pick usefuls guys from the Twins and Indians, they might also benefit from weakening their divisional rivals. That would help their strength of schedule if they want to stay in the wild card chase.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  86. B N says:

    People need to take a step back. This is the worst recent trade? Does anyone not remember when the Angels gave away Mike Napoli for Vernon Wells? Did that seriously happen? The Angels have paid about $35m for about 1 WAR of production… and have $55m left on the contract. Over the same period, Napoli put up 7 WAR for under $10m. Rivera was about a wash.

    Net value: -$50m so far. Key words: “so far.” At his current pace, Wells is going to put up another -$50m in negative value. Can anyone else name a trade that produced a -$100m loss of value? I can’t. Even if Shields and Davis blow out their arms for good this spring training, the prospects in Tampa need to accumulate 20 WAR to reach that level of negative value for the Royals.

    This trade looks like an overpay by the Royals, but that’s really not the big deal. At the time, I was pretty sure the Red Sox overpaid when they picked up Beckett and Lowell. Anybody remember a couple guys named Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez? Whatever happened to them anyway? With that said, that was a good trade for both parties. Why? The Red Sox needed a couple pieces to put them over the top.

    The reason why people are slamming this is primarily based on the fact that it doesn’t make the Royals a favorite for a playoff spot. So then, if the Royals made further moves to be a contender, would this then be a better deal? Food for thought.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  87. MLB Rainmaker says:

    I’ll be the contrarian — I think its a solid deal for KC.

    Shields is an ace that puts up a ton of innings and sports a career ERA below 4, and he’s signed to reasonable deal for the next two years. (specially when you consider Grienke is making twice that) Davis was an exceptional reliever last season and still has great potential as a starter. Both are legit MLB arms.

    As for the prospects, none of these guys are no-doubters. I’m excited about Myers potential, but if you look at the numbers, he had one monster season. He didn’t have great power prior to 2012, and if you look at the recent history, there are a host of Royals prospects that put up monster numbers and stepped back significantly at the MLB level (Butler,Gordon). It is easy to see Myers having that same early career path.

    While Odorizzi has at least maintained a solid ERA, neither Jake or Montgomery have particularly good control or the ability to miss bats. Both are very doubtful to have a greater contribution than Davis has had in his career so far.

    Fact of the matter is that KC had a lot of injuries, a lot of young position players and still managed to be middle of the pack in run scored — with only player development, that should improve. On the flip side, they had the 8th most runs allowed and no pitching depth to change that going into 2013. This trade will improve the situation, no doubt about it.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Paul says:

      They were 12th out of 14 in the American League in runs scored. Since they play in the American League, and they get to bat a DH instead of a pitcher, it’s pretty important to only compare their offensive prowess to other AL teams. And they were dead last in BB%. This is not an offensive juggernaut just waiting to bust loose. They are a loose collection of mostly hackers who approach game ABs with exactly the same approach as batting practice. And besides having a GM who needs the safety blanket of former Braves players, coaches, and staff surrounding him, their manager (former Brave coach) is a complete and total ass clown.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Joebrady says:

      Shields is not an ace. Just the fact that you felt the need to say that his ERA is under 4.00 underscores that fact. He’s good, no doubt, but he has really only had one AS-level year, in 2011. He has also lead the league in HRs allowed, hits allowed and ERs allowed.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  88. Mike says:

    This trade means Glass has now authorized spending $80 million on team salary. He has publicly stated his break-even point is around $70 million…..and that can be debated till the cows come home. So, don’t expect Moore to spend a single dime more on salary via FA. Not gonna happen. They may make a minor trade or two. Now if they can unload Chen and Hochevar;s contracts for a bucket of balls then they may be able to do a few things but for whatever misguided reason(s) they believe in Hochevar so they’ll force him into the back-end of the rotation. Hochevar might be best used as the log man and leave Chen as the #5 with Davis as #4.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  89. smb says:

    The Royals will finish dead last in the AL Central this year.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Pinstripe Wizard says:

      The Royals didn’t finish dead last the previous season, and regardless of whether this was an overpay or not, they have made their team better this offseason. I don’t see anyway they don’t finish higher than at least the Twins.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Cidron says:

      Naa, no last place as long as the Twins are mired down there.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  90. Cidron says:

    Possible scenario.

    Is it possible that Royals know something about Myers, we, and the rest of MLB doesn’t? (given that he was their property, they may). Given that he wasn’t called up last year (earlier, or sept.), is it possible they were hiding him from national camera’s etc to keep his value high then explore trade scenarios for him in the offseason, and take the one that they like the most?

    It is the only scenario that fits the no call-up and the trade that on the surface seems a tad lopsided. Not so much trading damaged goods, just overhyped goods.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • That Guy says:

      Myers wasn’t called up because of a logjam on the 40 man roster last year. Dayton Moore even said something to that effect in September when some fans were calling for his cup of coffee.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • Cidron says:

        didnt say there was a logjam. just saying that they didnt call him up so that they could hide something they knew, from getting out. let the hype machine do its stuff, instead of reality downgrading him? (all speculative, but it fits the facts)

        Vote -1 Vote +1

      • That Guy says:

        No. They didn’t call him up because they didn’t have space on the 40 man roster and were already concerned about who they’d leave unprotected in the Rule 5 draft. That’s why he wasn’t called up in September.

        Your speculation doesn’t fit the facts.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

  91. Nick says:

    The Rays traded two pitchers to the Royals and their rotation is still clearly superior to Kansas City’s. The Royals are gonna contend tho.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  92. Spit Ball says:

    Who is Will Myers? Ryan Braun, Mark Reynolds, Rob Deer? Let’s just wait and see.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  93. yakustk says:

    I never thought I’d see the smarties on this site get fooled by PCL numbers. Funny stuff.

    Just a heads up before anyone else mentions how outstanding a prospect Wil Myers is:

    1) Kila Ka’aihue slugged .598 for Omaha in 2010.
    2) Alex Gordon slugged .577 for Omaha in 2010
    3) Mike Moustakas slugged .564 for Omaha in 2010
    4) Lucas May slugged .501 for Omaha in 2010

    New ballpark in 2011, but the numbers are still pretty inflated:

    1) Mike Aviles slugged .586 in 2011
    2) Eric Hosmer slugged .582 in 2011
    3) Clint Robinson slugged .533 in 2011
    4) Lorenzo Cain slugged .497 in 2011
    5) David Lough slugged .482 in 2011
    6) Johnny Giavotella slugged .481 in 2011

    And now we go to 2012:

    1) Will Myers slugged .554
    2) Anthony Seratelli slugged .492
    3) Tony Abreu slugged .492
    4) Jerrod Dyson slugged .476

    Now maybe Myer’s power stroke, discovered after hitting an incredible 8 homers with a .393 slugging % in 2011, will carry on to Tampa. I hope so for Wil’s sake. But I think it is far more likely Myer’s career path looks like Nick Markakis or pre-roid Rafael Palmeiro instead of a path like Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Braun.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Preston says:

      Age vs. level matters, Myers was 21 at AAA and his 137 wRC+ shows that no matter how inflated the offense is in the PCL Myers was much better than the mostly older competition. And he doesn’t need to be Ryan Braun for this to be a terrible trade for the O’s. In fact if he was Nick Markakis, it would be atrocious. Markakis was a 20 win player in his first 6 seasons in the bigs.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

      • yakustk says:

        lol Just a heads up: Wil Myers isn’t going to be the main guy to determine the success or failure of this trade. Even if he turns into Nick Markakis, minus the glove.

        Vote -1 Vote +1

    • Joebrady says:

      In addition to what Preston said, you are also ignoring other stats, like his AA showing in 2012. It was only 152 PAs, but he was way, way the best hitter on the team.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  94. exceptforone thing says:

    George Sherrill was an All-Star for the Orioles, Cameron. You can’t sweep that under the rug. ;-)

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  95. Brent says:

    I cannot help but thinking this will go down as one of the trades in MLB history, possibly THE worst. I think this trade reminds me more of Adrian Gonzalez/Chris Young for Adam Eaton than the Erik Bedard one.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

    • B N says:

      No way it ends up worse than that one. In that trade, the Padres got a great slugger AND the better pitcher (Eaton was, by any measure I could see, worse than Chris Young at the time they were traded). A trade of Eaton for Young straight up would have been stupid. The only value the Rangers got out of that deal was Otsuka.

      Vote -1 Vote +1

    • yakustk says:

      Adam Eaton had a 5.12 ERA his first season after the trade. What do you think Shields is going to have? What are your career projections for Wil Myers?

      Vote -1 Vote +1

  96. Patrick Oliver says:

    I disagree Dave.
    The Rays should NOT have traded Shields.
    There had to be another way.
    The Royals got a great deal.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  97. royalblue says:

    This author has no clue what he is writing about.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  98. Kali says:

    so, now its October 2014. How’s the trade looking now………?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  99. Facebook Fan says:

    Hey Dave,
    Whats your take on the trade now?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  100. Facebook Fan says:

    Hey Dave, Whats your take on the trade now?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  101. ralph says:

    You’d probably have better luck asking Dayton Moore to trade you Eric Hosmer for some Air Jordans.

    +40 Vote -1 Vote +1

  102. diegosanchez says:

    you’re gonna get sooo many hit from this post

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  103. Yeah says:

    I only get one jean for $36, how much for the pair?

    +17 Vote -1 Vote +1

  104. Guy says:

    I’ve been looking for a place to call for S-hoes all night

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  105. Larry Andersen says:

    KANSAS CITY NEEDS TO “UNGLASS” THE OWNERSHIP OF THEIR MLB TEAM.

    +5 Vote -1 Vote +1

  106. Does your unglass come in large, or only small?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  107. Sam Samson says:

    Just wear one jean and one sunglass.

    +6 Vote -1 Vote +1

  108. chuckb says:

    Better question: how much for the Rosetta Stone disks of the English language?

    +5 Vote -1 Vote +1

  109. Yeah says:

    @Chuckb, obviously too expensive.

    Vote -1 Vote +1

  110. B N says:

    “how much for the Rosetta Stone disks of the English language?”

    Sorry, I left them in my other jean.

    +6 Vote -1 Vote +1

  111. B N says:

    Is the unglass half empty or half full?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>

Current ye@r *