Ryan Braun’s Power
As a 26-year-old slugger signed through the 2015 season for a total of $40 million, Milwaukee Brewers left fielder Ryan Braun is one of the most valuable assets in the game. The former Miami Hurricane recently placed twelfth on Dave Cameron’s Top 50 Trade Value list. But, while noting Braun’s bargain contract and history of crushing the ball, Cameron pointed out a downward trend in Braun’s power output:
Braun was a monster in his rookie 2007 season, but he has never been able to repeat those kinds of power numbers. In fact, his isolated slugging has declined in each of the four years he has been in the big leagues, moving in tandem with his strikeout rate, which has also fallen each year. Braun has apparently made the opposite choice that [Colby] Rasmus made, and unfortunately, it hasn’t helped Braun. The skills are still there for him to be a star, but Braun is going the wrong way.
While Braun’s pop remains well above the major league average, his Isolated Power has declined considerably since his rookie year:
The fifth overall pick in the 2005 draft has seen his ISO dip from .310 in 2007 to .268 in 2008, .231 in 2009 and .186 this season. Prior to 2010, both CHONE and ZiPS projected a .259 ISO from Braun.
As Cameron noted, Braun’s making more contact, perhaps at the expense of hitting with as much authority. His overall contact rate has increased each season — 76.3% in ’07, 79.2% in ’08, 80.8% in ’09 and 81.9% in 2010 (81% MLB average). Braun’s K rate has gone from 24.8% in ’07 to 21.1% in ’08, 19.1% in ’09 and 17.3% this year.
Braun’s also hitting more ground balls and fewer fly balls:
He hit a ground ball 38.8% of the time as a rookie and 38.7% as a sophomore. But in 2009, that ground ball rate rose to 46.5%, and this season, it sits at 48.2%. Braun’s fly ball rate was 44.9% in 2007 and 44.1% in 2008. In 2009, his FB% fell to 34.1%, and it’s 36.7% in 2010.
So, Braun has been putting the ball in play more, but that extra contact hasn’t been forceful. Has anything changed in terms of where he’s hitting the ball? Not really. Braun’s spray numbers are right in line with his previous seasons:
His performance on those balls put in play, however, has certainly changed. In particular, he’s not pulling the ball with near the same might as in years past:
Braun displayed jaw-dropping power to the pull side in 2007 and 2008, and remained well above-average last season despite a sharp increase in ground balls hit. This season, Braun has actually been worse than the average righty batter on pitches hit to left field.
On pitches hit to the middle field, Braun is still a beast:
When punching pitches to the opposite field, Braun has typically displayed excellent pop. In 2010, he’s not faring near as well:
Though he’s bashing fewer homers this year, Braun is hitting tape-measure shots when he does go yard. Hit Tracker Online shows the average “Standard Distance” on home runs hit. Stand Distance homers are defined as:
The estimated distance in feet the home run would have traveled if it flew uninterrupted all the way down to field level, and if the home run had been hit with no wind, in 70 degree air at sea level. Standard distance factors out the influence of wind, temperature and altitude, and is thus the best way of comparing home runs hit under a variety of different conditions.
Here are Braun’s average standard Distance numbers over the years, as well as the 2010 MLB average:
Whether it’s a conscious decision or not, Ryan Braun is putting the bat on the ball more often while splitting the gaps and clearing the fence less frequently, a combination that has led to a career-worst .362 wOBA — still a quality mark, but well below his pre-season projections of .393 from ZiPS and .404 from CHONE. Braun seems plenty capable of once again hitting for prodigious power, with both ZiPS (.243 rest-of-season ISO) and CHONE (.238) predicting more slides for Bernie Brewer from here on out. To recapture his previous form, Braun might want to let ‘er rip at the plate more often — the extra thump would be well worth a few additional whiffs.
Finally
I have waited an article on Braun struggles for the last 2 months
Can we get a 4 Factors piece on Braun? I’ve noticed that his BB% is also down this year, keeping his K/BB ratio the same as last year. The real issue seems to be his power and results on balls in play. He’s hitting less line drives and less IFFB while his HR/FB has also fallen. Without seeing a lot of Braun this year it just makes me wonder if he is having a slow start to the year or is having a relatively down year – like 2008 between his monster 07 and 09.
I really wish he hadn’t changed his swing, he was an amazing hitter before that. Now he’s simply very good.
Anybody else think he may be playing hurt since he got hit on the elbow with a Tommy Hanson fastball two months ago?
Definitely… Unless you’re Albert Pujols (it seems)… especially when you rely on great bat speed like Braun.
I was thinking the same thing and being a brewer fan I can vouch he hasn’t looked the same since. The facts back it up as well he was slugging .612 prior to being hit on the elbow and has slug .413 since. I would say it must have effected him quite a bit because that is a very drastic drop.
I know he strain his intercostal muscles in 08 but after looking he actually slugged better for the rest of the month after that injury then dropped off the next month. So don’t thinks that’s to blame. The intercostals flared up in 09 again but I would agree that his approach did change from an aggressive power approach to more of a contact/strike-zone control approach.
So overall he may not have quite the same power he showed in his rookie year but I think he deserves a mulligan for the last couple of months.
I didn’t see the word “luck” once in this article. How is it that every other hitter in the league who puts the ball in play but has a low BABIP is a victim of bad luck, but for Braun he is not hitting the ball forcefully? His HR distance numbers indicate that he has plenty of bat speed, no? His decline in pull numbers from astronomical levels is noteworthy but not unexpected. However, that was keyed on rather than the obvious regression candidate, which is 0% HR/FB to right. Boo.
How does he have a “low” BABIP?
Apart from the power issue, I think this year is a true talent indicator for Braun. Look as his career numbers and factor BABIP….Years below .300 average…above average BABIP, years with average BABIP, hes around .280.
I agree… Pitchers as well… Luck seems to be the default argument for statistical variations within a lot of these discussions when we don’t have the necessary documentation to prove what is actually taking place. i’m glad this article looks into some detailed descriptions, but now I’m left wanting the reasons.
Now i’d like to see how he’s being pitched to, and if his current approach is a preliminary adjustment in response to that… I’m sure the evidence is lost somewhere within the pitchfx data and the video of those approaches. Who knows, it could be as simple as him not being completely healthy if he’s swinging the bat differently.
I do understand that this is an article describing his output and not his input though, so thanks for the interesting read.
The biggest difference in Braun’s game this year compared to previous years is how he’s hitting vs Lefties.
07-09 vs Lefties: .364/.432/.708/1.140 (400 ABs)
2010: .237/.306/.351/.657 (97 ABs)
Yes, a nearly .500 point drop in OPS vs LHP.
It’s very odd that a right-handed hitter doesn’t abuse lefties. And that split is very, very worrisome.
Not worrisome at all. His track record supercedes the small 2010 sample size. Wouldn’t you think?
He will hit LHs.
1.480 OPS against LHP in 2007 (111 AB).
.873 OPS against LHP in 2008 (171 AB).
1.198 OPS against LHP in 2009 (119 AB).
.657 OPS against LHP in 2010 (97 AB).
He hasn’t even had a full season’s worth of AB against lefties in his career (498). I’d say that his 2010 statistics make up enough of his career statistics (about 20%) that they definitely bear some weight. The 2010 season stands out like a sore thumb. He would have to go on an absolute tear in the next 2+ months to get to his 2008 level.
I think it has everything to do with being plunked by a Tommy Hanson fastball on his elbow. He’ll be back in form next year. Heck he will likely still hit 30 HRs this year.
Braun before Hanson plunk
32 games
.359/.443/.594 (18/18 bb/k ratio)
after
61 games
.252/.286/.413 (12/46 bb/k ratio)
It does seem like it’s more than coincidence that Braun’s “struggles” happened after he got hit, but I’ve watched a bunch of his ABs and he certainly doesn’t swing like a guy who’s injured and/or overcompensating.
Maybe, because he has shown he can still hit for that same amazing power, it’s just not as prolific. When he drives the ball out of the park at this time…
I would like to know whether he is making “pure” contact at the same rate he used to, and if he is able to muscle out a ball that isn’t made with “pure” contact as often as he used to…
I always thought with quicker bat speed, you not only get velocity, but you get maybe that extra split second to locate and see the type of pitch better, maybe resulting in better “barrel awareness” (whatever that is)… So, I would also like to know if there have been any decreases in the time it takes for him to get from the trigger to point of contact in his swing.
More reason to really love Tommy Hanson. Braun is one of the cockiest, most hated players by fans around the league.
Coming from a Cubs fan, that holds so much weight…
Fielder is the guy everyone hates on the Brewers. He’s the one who gets plunked all the damn time.
Still, the Tommy Hanson incident doesn’t explain his decreasing power over the past few years. It’d be nice if sometype of analyst or the press started asking him more questions about the lost power and whether he can revert back or not, but since his #s are already so good people seem to settle and not think about the lost power since it is not as drastic as someone like David Wright’s was.
Sure… What about the argument that scouting reports sometimes catch up with hitters and pitchers, resulting in phases of confusion. Hasn’t there been a lot of baseball intelligence out there being built over the years as to “how can we get Braun out”? Why do we just assume it’s all Braun’s doing. What about the pitchers facing him…
Not to mention the pitching in the NL Central has improved a good bit over that time frame as well which could be lowering his numbers some.
This actually alleviated any concerns about Braun and increased how I perceived his value. I mean, he absolutely smashes the ball to center. So he still has pop, you don’t do that without it. That tells me that there was some kind of decision through which Braun decided to make more contact and less power, which means two things: There’s reason to believe he could switch back, and maybe, just maybe, he can combine the two styles and get the power back while still keeping some of the contact. As long as he still has the ability to hit with that power, he’s extremely valuable in my eyes.
Braun has a great swing. At times he stops his rotation and lets his arms extend toward the pitcher. That hurts him and has been hurting him lately. He needs to go back to making contact with the knob of the bat closer to his body and extending AFTER contact is made.
OPS down to .811
…………….
I think the Tommy Hanson fastball to the elbow hurt his season more than we think.
Absolutely it did. If you watched him play all summer it was easy to see that he was missing bat speed. It started right after the plunking and lingered, and it was a little frustrating that Braun & the Brewers never mentioned how the injury was bothering him. I’m sure they’ll mention it this offseason though.
2010, Prior to plunk: .359 / .443 / .594 / 1.037
2010, Plunk thru July: .235 / .269 / .400 / .669
2010, Since August 1: .380 / .442 / .585 / 1.027
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