The Meaning of Ryan Howard’s Toe

Something ridiculous happened. When ridiculous things happen, you’re often left wondering how much to worry about it, since, of course, it was ridiculous. It might be even more ridiculous to continue thinking about it.

Ryan Howard dropped a lead pipe that he swings in the on-deck circle on his toe and broke it. He won’t play again this season. So here’s your bizarre thing, and maybe it was just a freak occurrence, not worth thinking about any longer than it took to produce the mild expression of happiness or sadness that occurred when you first heard that this thing happened. Baseball! You might say. Crazy things happen.


photo of the offending pipe courtesy philly.com

But here’s the stupid part of it: there’s research that says that swinging a heavier item before you go to bat actually slows your bat speed. Here’s the money line from that Wall Street Journal piece by Craig Wolff:

Scientific research makes clear that the more weight you swing in the on-deck circle, the slower your swing in the batter’s box.

So here’s a ritual that baseball players perform that has been shown to be harmful on an everyday basis… and Ryan Howard breaks a toe doing it? The Phillies were a long shot, so it may not seem like such a big deal now, but it’s not hard to imagine this happening in a more crucial moment. And even the fact that this is the first time this has happened in recent memory doesn’t mean that much — every day that baseball is played, someone somewhere is swinging with one of these doughnuts, pipes, weighted bats or (yes) sledgehammers, and someone a second later is going to drop that instrument somewhere. That’s building up a lot of “n” — this injury could happen again, to a team that desperately needs their star slugger at that moment.

And then we’ll have had a completely avoidable situation.

Proponents would say that it makes the player feel like the bat is lighter in their hands. It makes the batter feel good. There are all sorts of things that a batter could do to make themselves feel better for an at-bat, and many of them are illegal. That player is a valuable paid-for asset belonging to an organization and he is worth protecting, even when the person he’s being protected from is himself.

There are other practices that are more dangerous. A broken bat in the field of play is a source of danger. A line drive back to the pitcher is a source of danger. This pipe/toe story seems trivial compared to those potential outcomes. It would take a strange, strange on-deck circle accident to create much more than a broken toe. The difference here, though, is that — to varying degrees — this accident is completely avoidable. Any team can eliminate the possibility that this happens to them.

Swinging with weights is more like long-toss: some pitchers swear by it, but if a team has research suggests that it hurts pitchers, it’s well within their rights to ban it from their organization. And many teams do have long toss policies. It’s a ritual that some pitchers do, and they think it helps them, and there looks to be research that says it’s bad for them, so it’s banned in some cases. Plug in ‘swinging with a doughnut on the bat,’ and you’ve got an analogous situation, really.

So Ryan Howard did a ridiculous thing, and maybe it was just a freak thing that we don’t have to worry about. But since the thing he was doing was probably already detrimental, maybe it was actually an important thing that Ryan Howard did. And if it was an important thing, we should thank Ryan Howard for breaking his toe so that maybe the next guy doesn’t have to. Seriously!




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Eno Sarris manages the RotoGraphs blog when he's not asking players about stats. Follow his misadventures in writing on Twitter @enosarris or www.enosarris.com. You can chat with him here about baseball (real and fantasy) and beer at FanGraphs most Thursdays at noon eastern time, if you like.

49 Responses to “The Meaning of Ryan Howard’s Toe”

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  1. Oliver says:

    It sort of reminds me of the (urban legend?) soldiers who shoot themselves in the foot to get out of a horrible situation.

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    • Jeff Zimmerman says:

      I have seen people do it in the Navy, but without bullet. One guy got drunk and his wife slammed his hand in the door to break it and keep him from going.

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    • Rick Gordon says:

      The point of the weighted instrument is to groove muscle memory. It is based on neurokinetics. It is a drill, much like golfers using weighted clubs to groove their swing.

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      • Lan says:

        And yet golfers don’t swing weighted clubs right before every shot. As you said, it’s a drill. And like every other swing drill it should only be done in practice, and not at game time when you lose bat speed for it.

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  2. Bob says:

    Maybe it’s not just about bat speed? I can imagine the batters might have better control over the bat while swinging, which of course is crucial.

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    • Rob says:

      Good point about control. It also leads to be asked how aggressive the “weighted bat” swings were in the study. If they swung a weighted bat at max effort, and then swung a regular bat, I could see how fatigued muscles would slow the swing. But many batter’s DON’T swing at full effort in the on-deck circle…they simply go through their motion in slow motion, or sometimes a different motion altogether (Hunter Pence and Jason Heyward come to mind). It could also just be a timing mechanism. Most major league players don’t HAVE to swing at full power to hit the ball out, as long as their swing is timed appropriately to make contact at the right moment.

      Lot of other factors in play beyond “heavy bats slow swings”.

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    • Cooperstown2009 says:

      not to mention that the article said that they only swung a certain bat in the on-deck circle. I make sure to swing a weighted bat/two bats and then use one to time the pitcher.

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  3. Richie says:

    Yes, how in the world could ‘scientific research’ show any such thing? Like saying ‘intentionally stepping over the foul line’ on your way off the field after an inning then slows you down running the bases given the extra effort involved.

    ‘Hothouse artifact’ was the phrase I recall (an experimental result that exists only in the experiment because it actually results from how the experiment was structured), though when I Google it now I don’t come up with anything.

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    • Domenic says:

      Is this trolling? It has to be trolling.

      It’s fairly simple to test such a thing – have a person swing a bat or bat-like object that weighs x, then have that person swing a bat or bat-like object that weighs x-y. The speed of said swings is fairly simple to measure.

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      • Richie says:

        And the idea that those lab results of course transfer out into the live batters’ box because, ummm, well, the guys running the experiment were wearing scientifically official white lab coats, yeah that’s the ticket.

        ‘It happened in a lab, therefore it must be so.’ I guess I must’ve missed that specific class.

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        Is your contention that because it happened in a lab it’s not useful? Because that seems like the same mistake on the other side. I’m not the arbiter of all baseball research, but if a baseball team believes this research, they should remove the doughnuts, like some have removed the long toss.

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      • drewcorb says:

        I think he’s saying that the lab result only tells us that swinging heavy objects reduces bat speed. If the object of hitting was swinging a bat as fast as possible, then it’s very useful. However, swinging the heavy object could improve other aspects of hitting like bat control, or maybe others that we haven’t even thought of. So the lab result, although undisputedly true, might not tell us much about the game of baseball.

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      • drewcorb says:

        EDIT: ‘it’ in the 3rd line refers to the lab result, not the act of swinging heavy objects.

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        But either way, bat speed is important. And swinging a heavy bat right before you swing your real bat reduces bat speed. If you want to increase bat control, find a way to do it that doesn’t decrease your bat speed. Because bat speed is important!

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      • drewcorb says:

        I agree that bat speed is important. But until you provide them with a way to increase control without decreasing bat speed, they will continue to use the donuts or lead pipes. All I’m saying is that the research is only convincing that it decreases bat speed, and it doesn’t offer a whole lot of insight into the complete process of hitting. Again, I’m not saying I could conduct better research, but that doesn’t mean I should be convinced by the current research.

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      • drewcorb says:

        Whoops I basically said the exact same thing below in the thread. Sorry for clogging up space on here.

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      • Bad Bill says:

        For starters, they didn’t have “that person” test the premise at all, where “that person” is a major-league hitter. They tested college kids. To suppose that lessons learned from college players apply to major leaguers is like saying making a paper glider teaches you how to design an airplane: maybe, just maybe, some of the principles carry over, but many do not, and it’s a fool’s exercise to assert that they do. Of course, WSJ is very fond of this kind of fool’s exercise when talking about things other than Wall Street.

        If I’d ever submitted a paper for publication during my career as a scientist that was based on methodology as ludicrous as that cited in the WSJ article, I’d have been the laughing stock of my profession.

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  4. CS Yankee says:

    I believe they can also acquire a structured (or steel) toe to combat this and protect against the fouling a ball off the toe.

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  5. Spit Ball says:

    So should they swing wiffle ball bats with holes in them to cut back on wind drag when they are on deck. Fwsh, fwsh, fwsh.

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    • TecJug says:

      Actually, the article referenced clearly advises against this as well. The best thing, according to the study, is for each player to “mimic in his warm-up what he will do in the game—the same weight, the same motion.”

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  6. Howard has to be one of the unluckiest guys in baseball.

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  7. A says:

    Swinging a heavier bat makes your bat feel lighter and it makes you feel more powerful when you swing. Its a psychological thing. If people don’t understand certain intricacies of baseball, they shouldn’t research it to prove an uninformed point.

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    • Richie says:

      Sorta what I said first. Except ‘A says:’ says it much better.

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        I don’t understand this idea. People thought long toss worked for them, too, and then it was shown it didn’t (at least to the satisfaction of some teams). Another way: people think those phiten necklaces help, but they don’t. What if phiten was shown to give rashes or somehow have a negative effect on your muscles? You should allow them to continue doing it because they think it makes them better?

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      • drewcorb says:

        No, but it’s a lot easier to see that the rash is a bad thing for health. So it’s probably not worth the presumed psychological benefit of feeling better. But it’s not as clear that swinging a heavy object has poor benefits on performance (except when dropping it on your foot). The reduction in bat speed might help guys who would otherwise swing out of their shoes.

        I’m open to the idea that swinging heavy objects is harmful to performance, but I just disagree that research has shown this.

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      • vivalajeter says:

        You don’t understand the idea that feeling powerful and confident can help a hitter?

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      • Eno Sarris says:

        Eh, questioning the particular research is of course fine. Seems pretty cut and dry to me, but if you think that there’s some confounding factor somewhere between the doughnut swing and the regular bat swing, that’s fine. But if there’s a cost (bat speed), even if there’s a benefit, I’m stopping my team from using them and looking to find that benefit in some other fashion. I’m arguing mostly that teams should be investigating this research and making decisions based on that research rather than how the players feel.

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    • Eno Sarris says:

      Of course I understand that. There are plenty of illegal drugs that would make a player feel confident at the plate, too. If my player/assets are hurting themselves doing something that they only thinks helps them, then I won’t let them do it. I’m mostly a labor guy, but organizations have to think about their players as long-term assets too.

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    • Bab says:

      It’s psychological to an extent, with the reality more owing to muscle memory. Any effect of swinging with a heavier object will effectively wear off after a handling a regulation-weight bat for a while after commencing with an AB. Unless the whole point of using a pipe or doughnut is to ‘unload’ on an early pitch. That doesn’t seem to me a viable plate approach unless the player is true free swinger.

      Think of a comparable experience: ever grasped and lifted a gallon jug expecting it to be full, but was actually empty? Your whole arm flies up in anticipation of bearing a greater weight. This is perhaps enough reason to believe the psychological “surprise” effect is actually diminished considering players know they are swinging more slowly than usual with a purposely heavier object.

      If players want to actually swing with more explosive power than they might consider dynamic weight training rather than perpetuating recipes from old wives’ cookbooks. Maybe Howard would benefit from that, at least. Lol.

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  8. DD says:

    Thought this article would be about how the tow injury will slow his offseason conditioning and strengthening of his ankle injury. This is funnier tho.

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  9. Hurtlockertwo says:

    By this logic every batter should use a light bat as to not fatigue the muscles unnecessarily? Maybe a study should be done with bats of ten different weights to see which one gets the best results? Ridiculous maybe? We shouldn’t over-analyze everything, this is a game palyed by humans, not machines.

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  10. jcxy says:

    i think freakonomics covered this in one of the early episodes. howard is far from alone in turning his back on science in favor of ritual comfort.

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  11. HPJoker says:

    At LA Tech we just finished a study with something called the flexi bat. trials showed that it increased bat speed, so we’re having our baseball team try it out.

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  12. anon says:

    Ummmmm, I think you’re overreacting a bit. It’s notlike there is a rash of weighted pipe, broken toe injuries. It’s a fluke, no more so than the usual assortment of goofball injuries that happen every year like throwing out your back lifting luggage. That’s life, you can’t legislate all the randomness of life away

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  13. Bill says:

    your best bet is always just to get into the box and grip it and rip it.

    I’m sure the studies have something to do with muscles tiring. If you put a 10 rep of 225 benching, then go to do a 125, that 125 is going to be light…for the first 2 to 3 times. But if you could put up 125 30 times at first, if you do 225 first 10 times I bet you only get to 15 or 20 on the 125 reps.

    regardless, it’s all a waste of time. Get in the box and swing, let’s go.

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  14. KM says:

    One might question whether decreased bat speed might actually help Howard beat the overshift.

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  15. Nate says:

    Swinging a heavy bat/donut/pipe in the on-deck circle is mainly to stretch the muscles and create a bit more flexibility. No one is swinging a weighted bat with full intention of mimicking the effort they put into a normal bat swing.

    And then when you do grab the real bat, it obviously feels much lighter and your primary swing mechanic muscles are warmed up and ready to contract in a lightning strike.

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  16. jpg says:

    Gotta agree with the masses on this one Eno. Your long toss example doesn’t hold. Teams banned it because it exacerbated the risk of injury. This is more akin to corking your bat or wearing phiten.

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  17. Most commenters Here says:

    I didn’t read the study referenced here (and most likely didn’t even read the WSJ article ABOUT the study), but I feel confident in using old-timey, untested baseball wisdom to refute a scientific study.

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  18. payroll says:

    thank you, Ryan

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  19. Jon L. says:

    I have to agree with the people who are disagreeing with the idea that the cited research is conclusive. I swing two bats in the on-deck circle to warm up my muscles and to ready them to generate force. I’ll most often switch to one bat and swing more to regain quickness before stepping up to the plate, but by then the heavier objects have already served their purpose.

    I think also it’s a common myth that bat speed alone dictates the force of contact. A loosely-held bat that’s not properly driven forward through the ball will rebound, leading to lower ball speed even with the same bat speed.

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    • Jesse says:

      While I agree with your first paragraph, it’s still a silly practice. Get that flexibility without swinging a heavy object that might negatively affect bat speed.

      Your second point appears to be utter nonsense. The bat contacts the ball for a finite moment, the force is dictated by the bat speed, the weight of the bat, and where on the bat the ball is hit. THAT IS IT. Your follow-through or the way you are holding the bat has no role whatsoever after the point of contact. The “rebound” does not matter.

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