Ryan Madson: Loser of the Offseason

Ryan Madson has had a successful career spent entirely with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies signing of Jonathan Papelbon early in the offseason effectively ended that chapter of Madson’s career, but he entered the offseason as either the best or second-best available closer.

Madson was going to get paid, and it was just a matter of which team would see past his “inexperience” at the position and opt for his services over, say, Heath Bell or Francisco Cordero.

Unfortunately, best laid plans haven’t come to fruition, and it seems with each passing day that he will end up being the loser of the offseason: a very good player forced to sign for less than he would have had he hit free agency a year earlier or later.

Because so few remaining teams have both the need and payroll flexibility to give a multi-year deal to a closer, it’s looking like Madson’s first foray into free agency will result in his eventual employer getting a bargain.

With closer vacancies being filled by other means — teams signing other high-profile closers, using stopgap relievers or acquiring closers via trade — Madson and Francisco Cordero are the only two left on the free agent market. Cordero is older and less effective but has over three times the number of saves since the 2008 season. Some teams still place a premium on that number but Madson is the better overall pitcher in spite of that.

Since 2008, Madson has an 8.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 49% GB rate and a 2.86 ERA in line with his estimators. Cordero has a lower strikeout and groundball rate and a higher walk rate. His ERA is similarly low, but the estimators aren’t nearly as friendly. Madson basically embodies everything a team should seek in a late-inning relief role. He strikes batters out, exhibits great control, keeps the ball on the ground, and succeeds due to a devastating changeup, which won’t lose its effectiveness as quickly as a power fastball.

However, it’s not that hard to see Cordero signing a one-year deal somewhere quickly, leaving Madson alone on the market. Many teams are catching onto the idea that relievers are fickle performers, and that using someone like Octavio Dotel or Sergio Santos makes more sense than doling out the big bucks to someone “established.”

But Madson is still young, and has been very consistent over the past four years. He transformed from a potential non-tender candidate after the 2007 season into one of the best relievers in baseball over the past four seasons. But the market featured a glut of closers, and when teams creatively filled vacancies instead of negotiating with him, it became clear that he would probably be the odd man out.

First, Papelbon signed with the Phillies. Joe Nathan then signed with the Rangers. The Marlins brought Heath Bell in on a three-year deal. The Red Sox, a rumored suitor, traded for Mark Melancon, and then dealt for Andrew Bailey. The Blue Jays traded for Sergio Santos and the Mets signed Frank Francisco. Matt Capps returned to the Twins and the Tigers signed Octavio Dotel.

Suddenly, the Angels and Reds were left as the only two teams that would realistically consider a multi-year deal to either Madson or Cordero. With Jordan Walden in the fold the Angels lack a pressing need and might not have as much flexibility after signing Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson. And, given the increasingly prominent idea of getting good value out of a contract, if Cordero decides he’ll accept a one-year deal in the $6-$7 million range, won’t teams find that more appealing than 3/$27 or something of that ilk for Madson?

It’s too late now with the deadline having passed, but it may have made more sense for Madson to accept arbitration from the Phillies, serve as an $8 million setup man on a one-year deal, and hit the market next year. He would again be the cream of the crop, but far less competition would exist on the market and he would likely sign a deal more in line with his, and Scott Boras’s, expectations.

At this point, it would be prudent for he and Boras to regroup and potentially accept a lucrative one-year deal, instead of settling for three years and $21 million if they both think a 4/$40 could be signed next season. Then again, it’s entirely possible that Madson is underrated by the majority of baseball teams and his actual market value is far below his value perceived by fans, analysts and his inner circle.

Madson isn’t going to sign for anywhere near what he expected, but whoever signs him is going to make out like a bandit.



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Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.


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Dan
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Dan
4 years 4 months ago

Phillies appear to have lost big, too. They dove in early and what they assumed was a crazy market, and they appear to have badly overpaid for a closer.

Bryan
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Bryan
4 years 4 months ago

What? The Phillies overpaid for something? Never happens!

Will
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Will
4 years 4 months ago

Even worse, they still have to pay compensation for Papelbon, which makes the deal ever that much more awful.

phils phan 100
Member
phils phan 100
4 years 4 months ago

you’re right…they should have waited it out and re-signed madson to a 3 yr/28 m deal… the money they spent would have been better spent on a guy like Michael Cuddyer

Rich
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Rich
4 years 4 months ago

What?! Are you seriously saying we should have signed Cuddyer? The guy who is getting paid $10 mil a year and would have no place to play on this Phillies team? I thought we went over this months ago how Cuddyer wouldn’t fit.

Paul
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Paul
4 years 4 months ago

How much of it has to do with his agent? The guy with the reputation of being the greediest one out there who stubbornly waits to deal until the very last minute to hold out for more money? This looks to me like what happens when he loses, and Mad Dog will be the one really losing out.

Shane
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Shane
4 years 4 months ago

Probably some combination of Madson and the agent. An agent can only advise, but Madson could have easily accepted the deal offered by the Phils or anyone else for that matter. Instead of $8.0 mil/yr, let’s hold out for $10 mil/yr!? This for a guy with a very limited track record as a closer. I hope he lands with the Pads or some non-contender on a one year deal, and then implodes. Hopefully that will teach, both Madson and the agent, a valuable lesson. Greedy F*#ks!

Shane
Member
Member
Shane
4 years 4 months ago

I think this is the fist time I’ve seen another Shane commenting… Weird.

Was it ever reviled what happened with the Phillies and Madson? It seemed like they had a deal, ownership nixed it, and then signed a larger deal for Paplebon.

Pete
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Pete
4 years 4 months ago

“limited track record as a closer”

Uggh, spare me the experience argument.

DD
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DD
4 years 4 months ago

He ain’t going to the Pads – they traded for Huston Street.

Shane
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Shane
4 years 4 months ago

So Pete, you think his one year of closing is worthy of his lofty contract demands!? Hmmm, I guess that’s why so many GM’s have been willing to take him up on them!

Also, howdy Shane, we are multiplying.

Brad Johnson
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4 years 4 months ago

Shane #1,

I would say that his track record as a top 15 reliever in baseball along with his young age and excellent stuff/command/control qualify him for those lofty demands.

There is some information conveyed by a reliever’s ability to close games, but to put a WAG number on it, we’re probably looking at half a mil per season.

Josh
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Josh
4 years 4 months ago

Brad – I don’t disagree with that, but I see what Shayne’s saying there. We can talk about WAG and all the stats, but there is something to holding down the closer’s role over at least a few seasons which has merit. You can probably count on one hand (Paps, Mo and Bell come to mind) that have been great closers over say the last few years. Even guys like Marmol and Wilson looked pretty hittable last year and most teams have had a revolving door because those guys who had really good years struggled afterwards.

To say that Madson deserved a long-term contract for that kind of coin, I find kind of laughable.

Corey
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Corey
4 years 4 months ago

Who cares if Madson is youngish. Jonathan Broxton says HI. Billy Koch too.

Jason
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Jason
4 years 4 months ago

I’m with Shane. It’s fine to ask for something, but you should be reasonable in your demands or you will price yourself out the market. I think that’s the case with Madson. There’s no way I would have considered giving him close to what he was asking for relative to what some other closers are making.

Also to the guy above that said track record doesn’t mean anything, I think you should go through every team over the last 5 years and see how many closers they’ve used. It will blow your mind.

Anthony
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Anthony
4 years 4 months ago

It just bothers me as a Phillies fan that Madson will sign for next to nothing compared to the ridiculous contract they gave Papelbon. They wait out Rollins but not Madson, I just don’t understand it.

DavidCEisen
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DavidCEisen
4 years 4 months ago

How was the contract ridiculous? It was a slight overpay, but in line with what other closers have been getting per WAR this offseason. Ridiculous means something else.

Kyle H
Member
Kyle H
4 years 4 months ago

highest contract ever for a reliever. For a very good, but not far and away the best reliever. That is what is ridiculous. And to say that it is in line with other contracts this year is dumb because his contract preceded any other contract this season, thus setting the rate.

tuna411
Member
Member
tuna411
4 years 4 months ago

Ridiculous in that paying $14 million per season for ANY closer…and I include mo.rivera in this group…is STUPID.

DavidCEisen
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DavidCEisen
4 years 4 months ago

Average yearly salary is less than Mo and considering the age difference is rather have Papelpon. Obviously the Phils would have been better hanging on to Madson if they could have paid him 10 million or less and as a Phils fan I’d have been fine with them not having either Papelbon or Madson and going with their young pen arms, but the contract is hardly ridiculous or stupid considering the teams payroll. I don’t understand why people feel the need to exaggerate constantly.

Alan
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Alan
4 years 4 months ago

“as a Phils fan”

say no more

Ari Collins
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Ari Collins
4 years 4 months ago

There is literally no contract that certain fans can’t justify.

DavidCEisen
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DavidCEisen
4 years 4 months ago

Yes, because saying I would rather they not have signed him to the contract is a justification. I know nuance is difficult for most people to understand these days, but there is a key distinction between ‘bad’ and ‘ridiculous.’ Everything needs to be ‘awesome,’ ‘amazing,’ ‘worst ever,’ ridiculous,’ ect. You guys need to buy an OED and thesaurus.

Anthony
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Anthony
4 years 4 months ago

It’s ridiculous in the fact that they gave a guy $50 million to pitch one inning a game. I just think they could have used all those resources you mentioned for other, more pressing needs.

DavidCEisen
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DavidCEisen
4 years 4 months ago

And? He was worth 3.0 WAR last season. Assuming he is worth 2.5 WAR a year they are paying him 5 million per win, which is slightly above market price (assuming $/WAR doesn’t increase). Do you really think paying 5 million per win is ridiculous? Do you think the 9th inning is less important than other innings? Do you think the 60 some odd innings Papelbon will pitch are going to not help the Phillies.

Again was it a great or even good signing? Absolutely not, but it was hardly stupid or ridiculous.

By the way, Heath Bell is coming off a .5 WAR season and received a three year 27 million contract. Joe Nathan is coming off TWO ZERO WAR seasons and signed a two year 14 million dollar contract. What kind of adjective would you use to describe those signings? You’ve already used up ridiculous for mildly overpaying, so maybe “Uber-SUPER-duper-crazy-suicidal!!111! Signings of All-Time!!!,” might be hyperbolic enough for your tastes.

DavidCEisen
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DavidCEisen
4 years 4 months ago

Also, who is paying Papelbon $14 million a year?

hk
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hk
4 years 4 months ago

@ DavidCEisen,

IMO, the only aspect of the Papelbon deal that can be considered ridiculous is that Amaro signed it before he knew how the new CBA would change free agent compensation. The Phils could have agreed to terms with Papelbon and told him that he must wait for the new CBA until the deal would be announced. Otherwise, I agree with you that overpaying him by ~20% and one year more than necessary is unfortunate, but not ridiculous.

DavidCEisen
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DavidCEisen
4 years 4 months ago

True, again I’m not arguing it was a good signing, but the Internet has a case of Amaro derangement syndrome. Every average or bad move is ‘the worst contract ever.’

Phils_Goodman
Member
Phils_Goodman
4 years 4 months ago

You would think that on Fangraphs we would have people checking the facts before resorting to knee-jerk reactions.

Pabelbon’s deal is market rate based on the $/WAR model (which is generally not very kind to reliever contracts). The risk comes in terms of length.

Anthony
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Anthony
4 years 4 months ago

I agree on that point, I’m more upset with that fact that they may have been able to re-sign Madson for close to the same/less annual price at less years.

Phils_Goodman
Member
Phils_Goodman
4 years 4 months ago

Papelbon is better than Madson, so of course he costs more. There are a lot of things you’re going to be upset about in hindsight.

hk
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hk
4 years 4 months ago

As a Phillies fan, I am torn on this deal. On the one hand, the Phillies got the best closer on the market, which I obviously favor. I also believe that there’s a decent chance that Papelbon will earn his money on $ per WAR basis. However, the downside for me is, even if he ends up being a value on $ per WAR basis, Amaro definitely should not have squandered a 1st round pick in the process and he quite possibly could have gotten Papelbon for fewer years and/or dollars if he had a better read on the closer market and let it play out a bit (like he did with the SS market and Rollins). To me, Amaro’s biggest failing is that he rushes in and sets the market for free agents of a certain position (i.e. giving Ibanez 3 years and $11.5M per year in 2008 when the rest of the bad fielding, corner OF’s got ~$20M for 2 years) as opposed to letting others set the market and signing players for the right number of years and dollars (i.e. Rollins).

I would also argue with you that many people do check the facts on Fangraphs before commenting and they might point out that WAR is a descriptive value, not a predictive one. Just because Papelbon has been worth ~2.4 WAR per season throughout his career (excluding his partial 2005 season) doesn’t mean people have to believe that he will be worth that much in his age 31 to 34 seasons (or age 35 season if his contract vests for 2016).

Woodrum's UZR Article
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Woodrum's UZR Article
4 years 4 months ago

said the same thing last year about rafael soriano.

never doubt boras… or randy levine’s propensity to do something stupid.

cable fixer
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cable fixer
4 years 4 months ago

honestly, that’s not a bad comp…they could set the contract up like soriano’s–with a 1 year opt out if the closer market looks promising in 2012.

we’ll see…this might be madson’s best shot at a 3 year deal…

Kyle H
Member
Kyle H
4 years 4 months ago

Maybe the Cards come knocking? They have some money, and their bullpen was built with scraps last year, albeit good scraps. I think Madson is an upgrade over motte

www.thehotteststove.com
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www.thehotteststove.com
4 years 4 months ago

I doubt it happens. If so, Madson would set up for Motte rather than vice versa and that makes for a VERY expensive set-up guy. Motte’s numbers from mid-May to the end of the year were incredible. More likely, the Reds might end up with a good closer for the same amount they would have had to pay to keep Cordero.

Oliver
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Oliver
4 years 4 months ago

If I were Texas I’d offer Madson 3/24. Nathan’s no sure bet this year, nevermind subsequent years.

jim
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jim
4 years 4 months ago

they still have darvish’s contract to sign, but if that doesn’t pan out, they very well might

Dr. Schadenfreude
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Dr. Schadenfreude
4 years 4 months ago

Madson seems like a good guy, and I’m sorry his big payday will be delayed…however, it’s delightful to see Boras get his comeuppance. He used his mouthpiece, Jon Heyman, to broadcast as a fait accompli the contract he wanted and imply that Amaro had to ask his daddy for permission to do the deal. Can’t blame Amaro from walking away from the table in disgust. (But I can blame him for giving 5 years to the only other guy he saw as a “proven closer.”)

cable fixer
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cable fixer
4 years 4 months ago

yeah, the guy with a superb K/BB ratio…the one with 14.7 WAR since 06…the one who’s younger than madson…yeah, “proven” is the only thing he’s got going for him…

Oliver
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Oliver
4 years 4 months ago

Woah, another Oliver? Weird.

Madson was a cool guy in and around philly, always nice to the fans, seemed like a good kid. Calling him a “greedy f#$&” doesn’t seem right in my mind. The problem strikes me thus:

The teams prepared to recognize he’s a fantastic reliever regardless of role (more sabermetric) are the same ones who know/are learning that you don’t shell out 3-4 years at double-digits for a bullpen arm.

The teams who are willing to do that are the same ones who will be more likely to make that decision based on Saves, of which Madson has few.

it’s unfortunate, but he’s getting it on both ends here, and I don’t think taking a one-year deal to be a setup man would have been a good idea here. The best scenario is to take a 1-year deal to close for a low-midlevel team, get more saves and then hit the market again next year.

George
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George
4 years 4 months ago

“Madson was a cool guy in and around philly, always nice to the fans, seemed like a good kid.” Really?!,,,opining, but not fact, right? In light of the reports about one Mrs. Madson, it would have been interesting to see what would have come from a “marriage” with the Red Sox, based on this –

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/04/14/ryan-madsons-wife-hates-phillies-fans/

That aside, IMO, the Phillies used Boras…reports come out about 4/$44, with a 5th vesting year for a Madson return…having established that baseline, and likely having an idea of what it would take to sign Papelbon (and knowing that the Levinson brothers prefer to be ahead of the market in getting their players signed), ownership plays “bad cop” and decides the difference between the two 4 year deals is more than palatable, and decides to spend the extra money on the more established closer – Papelbon.

Do I believe that Papelbon will outperform Madson over the next 5 years?…I’m not that smart, nor that expert…but he will outearn Madson…significantly.

Nicely played by the brothers, Levinson, in reading the market, where it was, and how it would unfold, and by the Phillies front office, at least in terms of getting what they wanted for their millions, regardless of the players execution on the field.

Mario Mendoza
Member
Mario Mendoza
4 years 4 months ago

“…regardless of the players execution on the field.”

ok, then. moving on.

Brad Johnson
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4 years 4 months ago

You do bring up an interesting point.

The Phillies could have waited out the market for as long as they wanted, but they still needed to sign a closer this offseason at some point. Maybe they save a few mil or shave a year of a deal by waiting deep into the offseason, or maybe Papelbon and Madson both sign elsewhere and the Phillies are left signing Francisco Cordero.

The Phillies clearly want a guy who can basically auto-convert those 8 innings starts from Halladay, Lee, and Hamels into wins. That meant they absolutely were going to sign Madson or Papelbon. That was readily apparent from the outset of the offseason.

Cecil Cooper's Twin
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Cecil Cooper's Twin
4 years 4 months ago

It would be interesting to look at the projected contracts for Madson and Fielder from October 1 and what they actually sign for. It is beginning to look like Boras is getting his bluff called more often by GMs.

Also, it’s beginning to look like some organizations are de-valuing the closer role. I never could understand the contracts that were given to guys that pitch 70 innings per year. Madson, Cordero and KRod accepting arbitration are signs that maybe the days of throwing crazy long term money at the bullpen is winding down.

Ratwar
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Ratwar
4 years 4 months ago

We say that every year, and yet Boras still delivers.

vivalajeter
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vivalajeter
4 years 4 months ago

Exactly. People are writing comments as if Madson just signed a 1 year, $7MM contract on a crappy team. Let’s wait and see what he actually gets before we criticize the guy. It’s not looking great for him now, but Boras has gotten out of bigger messes.

Baltar
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Baltar
4 years 4 months ago

It would be nice if those days are winding down, but there is more evidence against than for. Besides the Papelbon, Heath, Nathan, etc. deals mentioned above, there is the Giants $10M or so for 2 OK but not great LOOGY’s, Affeldt and Lopez.

delitegroove
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delitegroove
4 years 4 months ago

couldn’t agree more…the nathan does not happen in a world where closers aren’t overpaid.

delitegroove
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delitegroove
4 years 4 months ago

err, nathan deal*

Moe Koltun
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4 years 4 months ago

I think we should wait to make this proclamation, if there’s one thing to never do with baseball, it’s underestimate Scott Boras.

TT
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TT
4 years 4 months ago

Any chance someone tries to convert Madson back to starting?

Brad Johnson
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4 years 4 months ago

No chance.

cpebbles
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cpebbles
4 years 4 months ago

I know the closer market is not a reasonable market, but it’s strange to juxtapose the proclamation that Madson will get a wildly favorable deal a little over the $7 million Cordero is projected to get with FanGraphs’ metrics showing Madson was just barely worth $7 million for the first time last year in his best season.

pft
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pft
4 years 4 months ago

FG metric ignores runs allowed. Some of us think thats a skill that should not be ignored. B-Refs metric has him valued in 2011 at 2.2 WAR (9.9 million using FG conversion).

cs3
Member
cs3
4 years 4 months ago

how do we know Madson hasnt turned down some offers that he now regrets?

phils phan 100
Member
phils phan 100
4 years 4 months ago

I could see the Phillies bringing him in on a 2 yr/18 m deal as the setup man to papelbon. Their bullpen was shaky last season, he could solidify plus build up his market value for the 2014 season.

ULI
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ULI
4 years 4 months ago

madson is a HORSE.. deserves 4/40.

George
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George
4 years 4 months ago

Regardless, the market will drive what he receives, not what he and his agent feel he is entitled to/deserves.

Montgomery Burns
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Montgomery Burns
4 years 4 months ago

teams won’t see it that way…. it’s a matter of size. and 4/40 is too big, even for a horse.

Yearning For A Burning
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Yearning For A Burning
4 years 4 months ago

A horse?? 4/40?? No way, I say give the guy 1 year at $830,000. Hard to see this guy coming in and finishing teams off for an extended period of time

The Dude
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The Dude
4 years 4 months ago

Who’s to say the Red Sox don’t sneak back in a grab Madson on the semi-cheap? Melancon and Bailey each have warts. Madson would give them an excellent pen almost no matter what happened and would ensure they don’t need to move Bard back there to plug a hole.

George
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George
4 years 4 months ago

IMO, Red Sox have been sensitive regarding the luxury tax limit. Ideally, they would like to stay at/under it this year, so as to “reset” it back to 17%, rather than go over it again, pushing it to 40% of any overage.

If they are to go over it, I’d bet it is for a SP, as opposed to Madson, but as mentioned, they’ll first exhaust all options towards resetting the luxury tax.

Mike
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Mike
4 years 4 months ago

I’d like to see someone like the Royals or Indians give him a 3 year, $30 million as a starting pitcher. Worse case, he has to go back to the pen, medium case you trade him to someone desperate for a closer over the next couple years, best case you get a starter with good surplus value. Crazy idea, I know.

Don M
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Don M
4 years 4 months ago

While understanding that many guys “could” be great closers…. Or underplaying the experience factor, I think of it like this: with a tournament on the line, and a 7 foot putt to make would you rather have tiger woods (prior to waitress-gate) who has proven time and time again how he can get the job done… Or would you roll the dice that someone not quite as good would finish it off? I feel like going for the more experienced, established player isnt a bad thing at all and people are bitching more now that madson will be had on the cheap with no teams bidding for him. I can understand not loving the pap contract but the rest of our pen is young and makes peanuts for a few years so I don’t have a problem with the upgrade or it’s cost

CircleChange11
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CircleChange11
4 years 4 months ago

Yeah, anyone can close. Right, Matt Thornton?

Although we don;t like it in our universe, there is some value in being able to handle the pressure of being a closer.

I’m certain that someone has produced a mass study of setup men turned closer and how they’ve fared. Anyone know of where we could find it?

It might not be as obvious or as cut and dried as we make it out to me.

PYW
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PYW
4 years 4 months ago

i’m not sold on the papelbon deal, either, but the phillies will get some sort of compensation once madson signs elsewhere.

i think this is a case where boras blew it.

George
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George
4 years 4 months ago

Phillies will only receive the sandwich pick, when he sings. As a “modified” Type A free agent under the terms of the new CBA, that’s it.

Red Sox traded for both Melancon, and Bailey, kept themselves under the Luxury Tax limit (for now), and get the Phillies 1st rounder, and a top five pick in the sandwich round after the 1st round.

pft
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pft
4 years 4 months ago

The Angels on a 1 yr deal for 10-11 million make sense for Madson. I can see the Angels in the playoffs next year with a dependable closer, perhaps deep in the playoffs, which can’t hurt Madsons market value. Also, except for Texas, nice pitchers parks in the AL West (including home park) and the Mariners and A’s offense are minor league, so he should put up some nice numbers before testing FA again.

Pujols contract is backloaded so the Angels can afford Madson on a short contract.

Madson would be a fool to go to the Red Sox on a 1 yr deal with Bailey and Bard as competition for the closer spot, a tough pitchers park and a tough division for pitchers. Valentine is not 100% committed to Bard as starter, and a rough patch for the closer that replaces Papelbon would have Red Sox Nation screaming for Bard to close.

ValueArb
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ValueArb
4 years 4 months ago

How bout the A’s on a 1 year $10M deal. Beane has created a lot of available payroll, and being able to ship Madsen at mid year for some prospects would be a great use of $5M, plus he’ll get the moronic local fans off his back for a little while.

George
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George
4 years 4 months ago

If a team can get Madson on a 1 year deal, and if Madson puts up 2012 numbers similar to 2011, it may push his 2012 FA status to Type A, netting the team that signs him in that hypothetical to that one year of service PLUS two compensatory picks…worst case a sandwich pick.

I can see that, from a team perspective, and it may work for Madson in a less cluttered market, relatively speaking.

Garrett
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Garrett
4 years 4 months ago

By what metric will someone “make out like a bandit” by signing Madson?

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