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The Seattle Mariners Should Hit Better

The Seattle Mariners are enduring a pretty miserable season. After last year’s stinker, the Mariners have followed it up with a .438 winning percentage and a pace-worthy of a scant 71 wins. Well, buck up West Coasters, because the Seattle Mariners should hit better through the season’s end!

In fact, the Mariners should be hitting a whopping 29% better.

For several weeks now, I’ve been playing with fielding-independent-hitting tools, specifically the aptly-named Should Hit metric.

Should Hit (ShH, for short) has a variety of uses, though its best used as a BABIP regressor. For your perusal, I created ShHAP!, a Google Doc that’s free for the world to download and allows anyone to regress a player’s present season (or any stretch of statistics), according to a different BABIP.

Well, today, let’s put this tool to use and look at the Mariners.

The following table shows us a comparison of each player’s hitting (as per wRC+, weighted runs created plus) and their ShHAP! (what their wRC+ should be, given their career BABIP).

The dark blue segment of each line is their ShHAP!; the light blue is their present wRC+. For Dustin Ackley and Carlos Peguero, I used their rest-o-season ZiPS projections for their BABIP — because they have so few career PAs, their ShHAP! and wRC+ would otherwise be identical.

Also, the size of a player’s 2011 PAs determines the thickness of the bars (I used a minimum of 150 plate appearances). The thicker the bar, the more reliable the ShHAP! projection.

NOTE: You might need to refresh the page to see the Tableau document. If you continue to have trouble seeing it, try going here.

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Noteables:

 

 

 

I’ve also included an HTML table below, detailing the Mariners’ statistics. For some reason, a bit of the formatting refuses to cooperate, but the numbers are in good order:

Name PA HR SB BB% K% BABIP cBABIP wRC+ ShHAP! Diff
Brendan Ryan 406 2 8 6.4% 16.5% .313 .297 90 83 -8%
Dustin Ackley 207 5 2 11.6% 15.5% .329 .283 142 121 -15%
Franklin
Gutierrez
269 1 11 4.8% 16.7% .261 .307 49 70 44%
Adam Kennedy 346 7 7 5.8% 14.5% .264 .306 83 103 24%
Miguel Olivo 385 15 5 4.7% 28.1% .259 .297 68 86 26%
Justin Smoak 410 12 0 12.2% 20.7% .253 .254 97 97 0%
Jack Wilson 184 0 5 4.3% 14.1% .293 .291 63 62 -1%
Jack Cust 270 3 0 16.3% 32.2% .333 .337 96 98 2%
Carlos Peguero 155 6 0 5.2% 34.8% .262 .310 66 88 34%
Ichiro Suzuki 536 2 30 5.6% 8.4% .286 .352 78 109 39%
Michael
Saunders
152 2 4 6.6% 29.6% .231 .268 29 46 59%
Chone Figgins 313 1 11 6.7% 13.4% .215 .329 35 88 151%
Weighted Avg 29.3%

Stats through 8/16/2011.