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The Seattle Mariners Should Hit Better
Posted By Bradley Woodrum On August 18, 2011 @ 11:00 am In Daily Graphings,Mariners,Projection Targets | 42 Comments
The Seattle Mariners are enduring a pretty miserable season. After last year’s stinker, the Mariners have followed it up with a .438 winning percentage and a pace-worthy of a scant 71 wins. Well, buck up West Coasters, because the Seattle Mariners should hit better through the season’s end!
In fact, the Mariners should be hitting a whopping 29% better.
Should Hit (ShH, for short) has a variety of uses, though its best used as a BABIP regressor. For your perusal, I created ShHAP!, a Google Doc that’s free for the world to download and allows anyone to regress a player’s present season (or any stretch of statistics), according to a different BABIP.
Well, today, let’s put this tool to use and look at the Mariners.
The dark blue segment of each line is their ShHAP!; the light blue is their present wRC+. For Dustin Ackley and Carlos Peguero, I used their rest-o-season ZiPS projections for their BABIP — because they have so few career PAs, their ShHAP! and wRC+ would otherwise be identical.
Also, the size of a player’s 2011 PAs determines the thickness of the bars (I used a minimum of 150 plate appearances). The thicker the bar, the more reliable the ShHAP! projection.
NOTE: You might need to refresh the page to see the Tableau document. If you continue to have trouble seeing it, try going here.
I’ve also included an HTML table below, detailing the Mariners’ statistics. For some reason, a bit of the formatting refuses to cooperate, but the numbers are in good order:
Stats through 8/16/2011.
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