Should Angels Pick Up Haren’s Option?
Coming into the season, the Angels picking up Dan Haren‘s $15.5M option for the 2013 was a foregone conclusion. He had been a workhorse in recent years, throwing 1581.1 innings between 2005 and 2011 and compiling an 81 ERA- and 82 FIP- over that stretch. A $15.5M option was a no-brainer for a five-or-six win player.
Now, sitting with a disappointing 4.82 ERA in late August and concerns lingering about his health, Angels GM Jerry Dipoto and his staff must determine whether Haren is a smart investment for the organization.
The questions about his health started in early July, when Haren spent 19 days on the disabled list with a back injury — one that has reportedly been an issue since spring training. It marked his first stint on the disabled list as a professional. It also helped explain his uncharacteristic struggles on the mound.
More specifically, the injury accounted for his significant velocity decrease from 2011 to 2012. Our own Wendy Thurm examined the effects of less velocity on every one of his pitches this year. The real problem, however, reared its head when Haren’s velocity didn’t improve after his stint on the disabled list. If anything, his velocity decreased even more:
(click to view larger image)
The results improved immediately after his return from the disabled list in terms of runs allowed, but the continued decline in velocity should have raised even more red flags. Either the injury was not fully healed, or something else was behind the issues.
Sure enough, after back-to-back dreadful outings in the middle of August against the Mariners and Rays, manager Mike Scioscia opted to skip Haren in the rotation in an attempt to reset his mechanics. The right-hander felt that his arm slot had changed while trying to pitch through his back woes, and he needed extra time to work with pitching coach Mike Butcher to rediscover his release point.
To determine whether his release point really had changed over the past two or three months, I laid a plot of his release point in most recent start against Detroit over another plot of his release point during his complete-game shutout against Seattle on May 24.
As you can see, Haren’s release point was slightly higher and more over the top in his most recent start than it was earlier this season. That higher release point is not inherently bad — as he only surrendered two runs over 5.2 innings and struck out seven in that start — but it does speak to the point that Haren is experiencing a different release point than he was earlier this season.
One reason why the 31-year-old is seeking to regain his old release point: his average fastball velocity on May 24 against Seattle was 89 mph, while his average fastball velocity on August 25 was 87.9 mph. Although that one mile per hour is simply random variation from start to start, it’s tough to accept that because the anecdotal and Pitch F/x data coincide rather nicely.
For the Angels, it’s important to ascertain whether Haren’s struggles in 2012 are due to his lingering back injury, aging, or mechanics. More than likely, it’s somewhat a combination of all three, but asking if the injury problems will persist due to his aging body and his 1700+ innings over the past eight seasons also helps determine the risk of exercising the contract.
The decision on Haren’s option will not be made in a vacuum, though. It’s important to recognize that the Angels have surprisingly little depth in their starting rotation. With Zack Greinke set to test the free agent waters and Ervin Santana unlikely to see his option exercised due to his 5.69 FIP and -0.6 WAR, the Angels would be left with the following rotation without Haren:
Jered Weaver
C.J. Wilson
Garrett Richards
Jerome Williams
?????
Richards has been disappointing this season, compiling numbers only slightly above replacement level, and Williams is a 30-year-old journeyman who ideally should be nothing more than a fifth starter. For the Angels to compete for an AL West crown against the Rangers and the surprising Athletics next season, their starting rotation needs to improve upon it’s 4.35 FIP, and relying upon arms such as Richards and Williams will not accomplish that.
When it comes down to it, the Angels are making a $12M decision because Haren has a $3.5M buyout. Assuming teams are paying roughly $5M per win on the open market, they don’t even need Haren to fully bounce back to his elite status in 2011 for the option to be worth it. If the organization believes the right-hander can be at least a three-win player, they should exercise the option, which would then allow the team to focus on the free agent and trade markets for another pitcher to further bolster the starting rotation for 2013.
And too much track record exists to believe Haren truly lost it on the mound. He may not be a five-or-six win player any longer, but he still misses bats at an above-average rate and limits the walks. Considering Mark Buehrle signed a four-year, $58M deal for his age 33 through 36 seasons a year ago to be a three-win pitcher, investing an additional $12M in a 32-year-old Dan Haren may be the best deal the free agent market has to offer for the Angels.
I have some doubts about your concluding paragraph – compare Josh Beckett, another guy with a track record and back problems who suffered a decline in velocity. His rates looked pretty decent last year; he even got Cy Young votes (for only the second time); but this year Boston found that he was not someone they wanted on the team.
Slightly different situation though. Beckett has 2 years at a higher per-year, plus he was bundled with Crawford (whose remaining 5 years shouts albatross, practically). Haren is available for 12m/1yr which is similar to guys like Kuroda (who was a steal) and Edwin Jackson (who has put up good value also). Taking a chance on Haren for 12m seems like a reasonable deal, by comparison.
The safe play is to pick it up IMO just because of the buyout. That said, his velocity is going down pretty consistently and he does not seem that far away from being Kevin Slowey at this point.
The Angels should just look at it as a 1/12 deal and hope Haren can regain some of his former excellence.
Well done. It is a no-brainer, really. I don’t think Dipoto is going to offer Greinke more than Weaver/Wilson money (~5/$80MM), which he probably shouldn’t anyways, and Santana looks like a lost cause.
There is no one in the farm ready to help except for future 5th starters like Brad Mills and Matt Shoemaker; the closest high-upside starter is Nick Maronde, who is probably still at least a year away (2014).
If the Angels don’t sign Greinke they’re going to miss Pena and Hellweg, not to mention Segura. And then there’s Skaggs and Corbin…
Not sure of the value if he continues in the negative WAR zone…
Right, about the buyout, it makes it a one year 8.5 million deal which is a no-brainer.
Nah. Original salary for the option is $15.5M. The $3.5M buyout makes it a $12M deal for 2013.
(Though we have a tendency to get caught up in that logic too much. It’s still a $15.5M one year deal. There is just a $3.5M sunk cost involved.)
I was reading too fast. Fangraphs articles can get a little too long unnecessarily.
I’d say so. A lot of his struggles can be attributed to the back injury he suffered, except he played through and didn’t let it heal. I think with ample time to rest in the off season he’ll be back to his precious level of dominance.
Yeah, that’s what us Rockies fans said about Helton back in 2008
Back injuries are 4 lyfe, yo
But then in 09, Helton put up over 3 WAR… which would be a net gain vs the 12m Haren cost. So basically, if the Angels got Helton for the one year, they’d come out winners. Not saying they will, but they would.
Really good article. One of the best I’ve read on here in awhile.
You mentioned that the 1.1 mph difference between the Seattle start and the Detroit start is just random variation, but did you run a T-test? I feel like if there were more than 30 or 40 fastballs thrown in each of those starts, there might even be a significant difference in his mean velocity.
Remember when the interim Dbacks GM Jerry DiPoto was crucified for the Haren trade. Well, looking back now its hard to see this as anything but a coup for AZ.
Yes, for the long term, the Haren deal is looking pretty good for AZ right now, but if the Dbacks had Haren in the rotation last year instead of Saunders, maybe they would have gone much further in the playoffs?
It’s interesting that DiPoto is re-united with Haren, and it makes you wonder if part of his rationale for trading him to the Angels may have been that he saw this coming. If that is the case, then he may not pick up the option. But since there were apparently no signs of health issues when he was with AZ, and since he performed well in the ~1.5 seasons in LA before this year, he probably just felt at the time that Haren didn’t really fit into the Dbacks plans of rebuilding for 2-3 years down the raod, and he didn’t see the 2011 success coming.