Should Anyone Trade For Josh Beckett?
Pretty much every player in the Majors goes on waivers at some point in August, so the fact that Josh Beckett was placed on waivers isn’t really news. However, unlike most players in baseball, Beckett will almost certainly clear waivers, since he’s due approximately $4 million over the remainder of the 2012 season and $15.75 million in each of the next two seasons. Any team claiming Beckett would be on the hook for $36 million, and he’s clearly not worth that kind of investment at this point, so he’ll sail through waivers without any blinking.
Once he clears, the Red Sox will be able to trade him to any team that’s interested, and they can create additional interest by picking up a significant chunk of his salary in order to move him. At that point, the question becomes how much cash Boston should be willing to eat to move on from their struggling former ace.
To determine that, we essentially have to figure out what Beckett’s open market value would be. If he were to hit the market this winter, what kind of contract would he get? To start off, here’s what some free agents who had underachieved based on their peripherals got in recent years:
Chris Capuano (2012): 2 years, $10 million
Jorge de la Rosa (2011): 2 years, $21 million
Javier Vazquez (2011): 1 year, $7 million
Rich Harden (2010): 1 year, $8 million
Capuano, de la Rosa, and Harden were all worth between +1.5 and +2.0 WAR based on their FIP in the season preceding their free agency, so by just BB/K/HR, they were pretty close to Beckett’s +1.8 WAR right now. Vazquez was significantly worse, but also was just one year removed from excellence, but like Beckett had experienced significant velocity loss. None of these guys are perfect comparisons for Beckett, but it gives us an idea of how the market values guys with good stuff (or formerly good stuff) whose peripherals suggest that they may be in line for some positive regression.
I think Beckett’s history would be viewed more positively than Capuano’s or Harden’s due to health, and probably better than Vazquez due to his previous success in the AL East. My guess is that Beckett now would be viewed in a somewhat more positive light than those three were at the time, but probably not as positively as de la Rosa, who was coming off a pretty solid season at the end of 2010. So, let’s just split the difference between Capuano and de la Rosa and estimate 2/15 as Beckett’s market value.
Essentially, then, we’d be suggesting that the Red Sox would need to pick up half of the remaining money left on his deal in 2013 and 2014 in order to give him away, and that doesn’t account for the $4 million he’s still owed in 2012, or the fact that most teams would rather pick up a little extra money in order to get a more interesting prospect in return. So, perhaps we have to bump up the total cost for the Red Sox to move Beckett to over $20 million, which would cover half of his future guarantees and essentially all of his remaining 2012 money.
If Boston was willing to do that, should any playoff contenders be interested in taking on 2/15 in future commitments to get a nearly-free-but-struggling pitcher for the stretch run?
Certainly, he’s not trending the right way. His August performance has been hideous, as opposing batters have hit .300/.372/.681 against him this month, and his July performance was his worst of the season before August rolled around. It’s not just a high BABIP either – he’s running an 8.91 FIP and 6.04 xFIP this month, as his walks and homers are way up and his strikeouts are way down. His velocity is still well below what it has been in prior seasons, and his stuff simply isn’t what it used to be.
However, it’s the same stuff he was throwing in the first half of the season, when he was productive for decent stretches of time. In the first three months of the season, opposing batters hit .236 with a .282 on base percentage against Beckett, and his .291 wOBA against from March-June is slightly better than Josh Johnson‘s .299 wOBA against this year. He was a benefactor of a low-ish BABIP for those three months, but they at least show that this version of Beckett can be somewhat effective, even with lower velocity.
By month, Beckett has had xFIPs of 4.40, 3.78, 3.80, 4.53, and now 6.04. In other words, he’s looked decent for about 40% of the year, looked mediocre for 40% of the year, and looked horrendous for 20% of the season. We can’t ignore the fact that horrendous is the most recent performance, but we shouldn’t also assume that Beckett is incapable of providing some value in his current form.
So, what team could use a wild card in their rotation for the next month, potentially giving them another bullet to fire in October, and would be willing to take on $15 million in salary over the next two years to take Beckett off the Red Sox hands?
How about the Washington Nationals? Since they’re intent on shutting down Stephen Strasburg, they’re going to need a starter to cover his last “two or three” starts, according to Davey Johnson. While Ross Detwiler has filled in admirably as the fifth starter, he’s got a pretty large platoon split (.227 wOBA vs LHBs, .311 vs RHBs) and was extremely effective in his stint out of the bullpen. If moving Beckett to the NL gets him going again, Beckett would be a better option as a #4 starter in the playoffs, and allow the team to use Detwiler out of the bullpen in October as well.
Having Beckett in the fold for 2013 and 2014 would allow them to reallocate the money they might otherwise have to use to re-sign Edwin Jackson on bringing in another hitter as well, or a temporary move back to the NL East could help Beckett re-establish some value and they could flip him this winter if they preferred the option of bringing Jackson back.
The Beckett-Red Sox marriage seems like it needs to end for the sanity of everyone involved. Moving him now, when a team like Washington could potentially get some value out of him in October, is probably going to be easier than moving him in the off-season, when teams can bargain hunt among the available free agents. If his current funk hasn’t scared everyone off, perhaps the Nationals and Red Sox can make a deal that helps both sides.
makes a lot of sense
I see two issues.
1. Wouldn’t the money for Edwin Jackson be reallocated to Josh Beckett? I suppose the Red Sox could take on some of the salary and make Beckett a relative bargain.
2. Although Mike Rizzo has sought people with playoff experience to keep around the clubhouse (DeRosa, Lidge, Jackson), the team has an overwhelming emphasis on “character” guys. Since Elijah Dukes there’s been a demonstrated willingness to take nice, friendly “mentor” players at every opportunity. Especially since there’s a very young pitching staff in DC, I doubt Rizzo brings Josh Beckett in to be the veteran presence. Insert amusing remark about fried chicken and beer.
Oh man, I miss Elijah Dukes.
Recent News: Former Rays outfielder Elijah Dukes was arrested early Thursday [Feb 2012] after he tried to eat a plastic bag of marijuana and had marijuana blunt tucked behind his ear, police said.
Famous Quote (to wife): “Hey, dawg. It’s on, dawg. You dead, dawg. I ain’t even bullshitting. Your kids too, dawg. It don’t even matter to me who is in the car with you. Ni—-, all I know is, ni—-, when I see your motherf—— ass riding, dawg, it’s on. As a matter of fact, I’m coming to your motherf—— house.”
“She done hit me across the head with a picture frame and everything. I hate that because I told my kids I would never go back to jail for no domestic violence.”
“I’m not one of those people who have to get even. Just like the Bible says, if you know it’s not true, you don’t have to say anything and I haven’t been saying anything.”
Famous Quote of his Mother, Phyllis: “I can say I’m pregnant from Carl Crawford, okay? And you know that’s hearsay.” And, “You got three baby mamas. Why not marry one of your baby mamas?”
Children
DOB Mother Gender
Nov. 25, 2003 NiShea Gilbert boy
Dec. 3, 2003 Carla Bryant girl
June 7, 2004 Shantell Mitchell boy
June 16, 2005 NiShea Gilbert girl
July 19, 2006 Porcia Daniels girl
Nov. 2007 [unnamed teen]
In a few years, people (a term that I use very loosely here) will see him on the Jerry Springer show.
Terrible idea for the Nats. Detwiler >> Beckett, especially as Detwiler has been much better recently as he’s settled in as an SP. Also, since when is a .311 wOBA bad? Not sure why we’re using wOBA against as a platoon split stat for a pitcher, but Beckett is .350 against lefties and .298 against righties. I’d take Detwiler’s line over that… I used to be a big Beckett fan, but he would only make our rotation worse unless we’re going to put him in Strasburg’s slot in September for a few weeks. Even then, the difference between John Lannan and him is marginal at this point.
Recency bias
It seems like a White Sox move to me. They have a couple young arms in the rotation they want to protect, Peavy, and then an underachieving Liriano, a mediocre Floyd and a terrible Humber. Beckett could provide a decent upside move for the middle of that rotation
i like the white sox for this too, if only because kenny has shown a willingness to buy “proven” talent at it’s nadir.
having said that, the nats idea is at least plausible/interesting…i wonder how the other gm (boras)–who has the ear of ownership evidentally–would react though.
If the Nats think they can get a 4 ERA / 4.5 FIP performance out of John Lannan, who they are already paying, then why lock themselves in for two more years of Beckett? how much better would they be with Beckett potentially starting the 4 game of of each playoff series than they would be with Lannan? Not to diminish Beckett’s playoff history, but he has not performed in what were playoff-like games over the past couple years, and he certainly is not looking good now. If the gain is picking Detwiler up for the bullpen to help against lefties, Lannan can still give you that.
If the Nats thought Lannan could put up a 4 era he would be in the majors
Why when all five of their current starters have sub 4 eras?
I know Dave asked about contending teams, but here’s food for thought: What about a team like the Twins, that so clearly lacks MLB-caliber starters?
Twins are pretty cash strapped thanks to the Mauer extension.
No, they’re doing all right as far as I’ve heard; expectations are that payroll will remain around $100MM. If they’re paying Pavano $8MM now, why not Beckett for less?
Terry Ryan will have to spend millions on starters; it’s just a question of who. Beckett has to have more upside than most.
If the Red Sox trade away Beckett, what exactly is their rotation going to look like next year? Can you really count on Lackey returning to anything resembling reliability? They’ll have Lester, Bucholz, and… whatever they can pick up on the free agent market? That doesn’t sound like a winning strategy to me.
Agree with this. The Sox are only going to move him if someone overpays (i.e., takes on his full salary or adds a good prospect). More likely, they figure he will bounce back next year (the aforementioned positive regression) and would rather have him do it in Boston than elsewhere.
“If the Red Sox trade away Beckett, what exactly is their rotation going to look like next year?”
Lester, Buchholz, Doubront, Lackey, Morales
The Sox have already indicated their intent to get Morales back in the rotation full time based on his performance to date. While he’s had his bumps along the road, Morales has been pretty capable as a starter this year. Jury’s out on him, but he slots in fine as a back of the rotation starter right now.
As for Lackey, no one expects him to ever be anything resembling a front of the rotation pitcher. Nor can anyone expect him to be remotely worth his contract. However, he had approached a sense of reliability in the second half of 2010. If he can provide 185-200 IP at a league average ERA (Which he did in 2010 before getting hurt in 2011), he’s a viable fourth starter.
Doubront’s not my ideal pick for a number three, but he’s got decent upside and he’s young and cost controlled. If he can get his walks down, he’s a viable option.
There are plenty of reclamation projects available this winter for the purposes of adding depth (McCarthy, Baker, Pavano, etc). Past that, the Sox have some vague potential for DL replacements in Stewart and Hernandez in AAA (Minor as their potential may be) and Wright in AA.
In either case, they need to be rid of one of Lackey or Beckett. Lackey has outright negative value in the market right now. If the Sox can recoup something approaching half of Beckett’s remaining contract, it may be a good idea to go for it.
There’s no way. His FA velocity is way down from last year and trending down in-season, and his walk rate going to the moon as his velocity goes down this year. Committing to 2 more years of a player on that path, at anything resembling your numbers, is crazy. The upside, if he reverts to first-few-months form is getting a marginal upgrade to #4 starter for a couple of september starts and then 3 playoff starts at most. He’s worth maybe .1 win in the playoffs and .5 RoS and that’s being really generous IMO.
The downside is that he’s actually useless right now, you throw him out there four times before benching him, and you’ve given the Braves ~2 free wins in the standings, he’s useless in the playoffs, and you have a $15m albatross. I get that you’re obsessed with the Nats doing something to upgrade, but the absolute LAST thing they need to do is to commit to throwing a starter with high uncertainty about his current talent level out there multiple times with a 6-game lead with 6 weeks to play.
Short answer: No.
Long answer: Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo.
Ummmm. What?
I’m not going to try to say the Beckett is phenomenal or anything, but the thought process behind this is kinda garbage. There is no reasonable explanation why De La Rosa’s 2/3 of 2010 at 1.8 WAR is better than Beckett’s full 2011 at 4.3 WAR. “…but probably not as positively as de la Rosa, who was coming off a pretty solid season at the end of 2010″.
Unless the velocity drop indicates an injury then he should be considered at least as valuable De La Rosa, 2/20-22 makes a lot more sense barring a hidden injury.
The Sox have to get rid of Beckett; if they can get something back, or avoid paying any part of the $40m, so much the better, but he must go. He must go because as long as he’s there, the Sox FO (and many fans – see above) are utterly unable to think clearly about the status of their rotation. He’s not a #1, or a #2, or a #3 – can he be regarded as a #4? In any case, they’ll never come to grips with the reality. Plus, of course, it might be a wake-up call for the rest of the underachievers if they just dump him. No more complaints about “embarrassing” starters after that!
swap for Johan Santana?
short answer: change of uniform bump
long answer: change of uniform bump *plus* saves the Mets about $10M in 2013 budget. For that, they are taking the extra year of Beckett. Santana’s 2014 at some ungodly amount can be bought out for $5M.
Padres? PETCO could cure some of his ailments. Then again there are a lot of good golf courses in the SD area. I’d pass.
As a Red Sox fan, I may be biased. However, I fail to see why it makes any sense to trade him for next to nothing. The guy is one year removed from a 4+ WAR season. Even this year, which was horrid on many levels, he’s going to put up 2 WAR. He’s definitely better than Lackey, unless he gets significantly worse.
So… it makes sense to trade him for a grade C prospect at his lowest possible value and eat $20m+ in salary? Does not compute. Basically, if he’s owed $36m and they eat $20m, they’ve saved $16m. What is the likelihood that the Red Sox will get better production out of Beckett for that price than what they can get on the open market? Are there a lot of pitchers one-year removed from a sub-3 ERA season who are signing for 2 years/$16m that I am unaware of? Heck, if we look at Vazquez for a comp in 2011, the Marlins got a steal with 3 wins of value and Vazquez was coming off a year where he produced negative WAR (while Beckett still is putting up a WAR of 2 this year).
I’m not saying that he’ll make a great bounce-back, he is getting to be an old goat. But if he puts up one year out of 2 where he produces 2 WAR by the all-star break, they can probably move him for about as much value as they’d get right now, plus have the benefit of playing him in the interim.
I’d rather be on the hook for Beckett than Westbrook…
In light of what just happened, this article is a pretty fun read. The Dodgers are paying ALL his salary, virtually…eep!