Should the Phillies Sign Luis Castillo?
The news that the Mets had released Luis Castillo this morning was hardly a shock, as it has been speculated on for months now – neither side was particularly happy with the marriage, and the Mets decided that having him around just wasn’t worth the drama. As the old saying goes, however, one man’s trash is another man’s treasure, and Ruben Amaro should take the opportunity to bring Castillo to Philadelphia.
With Chase Utley showing minimal improvement and looking likely to begin the year on the disabled list, the Phillies have at least a temporary hole at second base. Wilson Valdez is slated to get first crack at the opening, but while Valdez might have posted better numbers than Castillo last year, they’re essentially two versions of the same player, but Castillo is likely the superior option of the two.
Both Castillo and Valdez pound the ball into the ground with regularity. Among players with at least 200 plate appearances last year, Castillo had the highest GB%, while Valdez came in fifth. For their careers, Castillo has hit 63 percent of his balls in play on the ground, while Valdez is at 60 percent. It’s nearly impossible to hit for power when you’re putting the ball on the ground this often, and not surprisingly, the two have combined for just 33 home runs in over 7,000 plate appearances.
Castillo understands that he’s not much of a hitter, however, and uses his stature to try to work his way on base. He walked in 13 percent of his at-bats (plate appearances) last year, mostly because he swung at only 32.6 percent of the pitches that were thrown his way. He takes pitches until he’s forced to swing, hoping the pitcher will miss the strike zone often enough to hand him first base. Valdez, on the other hand, likes to swing the bat. He swung at 52 percent of the pitches he saw last year, and not surprisingly, walked in only 5.8 percent of his at-bats. Castillo knows he’s not much of a hitter, but that realization hasn’t set in for Valdez yet, who still likes to try to hit his way on base.
Castillo’s 2010 numbers were dragged down by a .259 BABIP, which is absurdly low for a guy who hit the ball on the ground 70 percent of the time. While it’s easy to say that a guy with no power was just hitting into easy outs too often, his BABIPs since 2007 are .325, .267, .338, and .259. His career mark is .329, by the way. While he’s lost a good amount of his speed from earlier in his career, and shouldn’t be expected to post another .330 BABIP, .259 is simply too low to be repeated. That’s the kind of BABIP you expect from a lumbering fly ball hitter, not a guy who bunts with regularity.
Marcel projects Castillo’s BABIP to bounce back to .288, which is pretty reasonable given his current skillset. Combined with his walk rate, that gives him a 2011 projected line of .257/.345/.321. Not exactly a superstar, but a .340 on base percentage from your emergency second baseman isn’t the worst thing in the world. That projected .307 wOBA, by the way, is better than any single year mark Valdez has posted, and blows away his career .271 mark.
Castillo’s patience and ability to still make contact should be enough to let him rebound as something like a +1 win player. Right now, with Utley’s health up in the air, the Phillies could really use a +1 win second baseman. Valdez is miscast as anything other than a utility player, and bringing in Castillo would allow them to keep him in the reserve role that his skills are better suited for. Castillo isn’t a long term answer, of course, but he’s capable of holding down the second base job until they figure out what Utley’s time frame for return actually is.
While he wasn’t going to be useful to the Mets, Castillo can help the Phillies, and Amaro should be pretty happy that he’s now available for free.
Yes – not much to lose.
Better would be to trade for Chris Davis who is rotting in Texas -and move Polanco to second base.
This is an interesting idea. Trading for Chris Davis also gives them some depth at 1st base in case Howard gets hurt. I don’t think that the Rangers will be willing to part with Davis for as cheaply as the Phillies would want though.
Davis for Blanton and cash?
I think Jonathan Singleton would provide more value in case howard gets hurt than Chris Davis even in this season.
They would have to live his horrendous defense at 3rd however.
As a Mets fan, I’m so happy to see him gone. But yes, I actually do think he can help Philly, some. He fits their “win-now” mode much better. The Mets are looking for cheap, young player with upside to fill the position, not an aging veteran whose worn out his stay and whose peak is between 1 and 2 WAR. I would be concerned with his defense however; between him and Howard on the right side of the infield, there’s probably going to be a lot of groundballs getting through.
As a Mets fan, I say yes, please sign him!
Seriously, I wish Luis luck wherever he ends up. It’s not his fault Omar decided to give him a contract with way too much money and years. He was an aging fading player never cut out for NY.
this.
It’s also worth noting in this discussion that Valdez looks like an average defender while Castillo looks like a ~ -5 defender or so these days.
yeah, it’s odd he didn’t mention defense.
-5 on a good day.
He’s sure handed, but has the range of Megan Fox.
What do you know about Megan’s range?
-mark s.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1131734/
Her range isn’t really the problem, it’s her reaction times. I’d stick her in left field, where she has more time to track the ball and can use her speed to chase it down. Or even center, if her arm is strong enough.
So would I.
Ba-BOOM.
Exactly. The reasons the Phils will start Valdez is because of his defense and they have shown a clear preference that they prefer defensive-oriented players off the bench at the middle utility INF and backup C posts even if they take an offensive hit.
Main reason I disagree with said article. I think you’re underselling Valdez’s defense, it’s certainly above-average, Castillo is a liability with the glove, quite frankly. Even if Castillo slightly rebounds with the bat, it’s not nearly enough to make him a better option then Valdez. And that’s kinda the point of why he was released today….because he’s not better then even marginal players anymore.
valdez is a better option at shortstop or 3rd then at 2nd. his strength is his arm not his range
Valdez had the highest GB%, while Valdez came in fifth. Color me confused.
I just don’t see how Luis Castillo, at 34, helps the Phillies this year. He doesn’t offer a significant upgrade over Wilson Valdez. Come on Dave, he’s Luis Castillo. I don’t care if he can take a walk.
Really liked that article on Pineda, though.
Valdez is the only reasonable backup middle infielder in the Phillies system right now. Given Rollins’ problems with health last season and Polanco already going day-to-day, it would make a lot of sense to push Valdez back into that utility reserve role, even if Castillo were an identical value.
Phillies have Barfield who showed big promise just a few seasons ago and is still young as well as the Rule 5 M. Martinez who is likely going to stay on the roster.
and valdez is 32, not that much of a difference
As a Phillies fan, I have to say at this point, beggars can’t be choosers. And at his Habor Freight price, why not?
This is snarky of me, but I’m curious as to how Luis Castillo walked in 13 percent of his at bats last season, since walks don’t count as at bats? (Since sarcasm doesn’t always read well on the internet, yes, I know Cameron means plate appearances).
That is the most qualified sarcastic remark I’ve ever seen. It’s like a pearl of snark embedded in an oyster that apologizes after you pull the pearl out.
Yeah, the polite version of a “no offense” comment.
Desperate times… Castillo looks to be a better option than Valdez by a half a win or so, but for a team that’s probably pinching pennies right now… not sure if they make this move. If they can rope him for 2 mil or something, sure.
Couple mil? He will cost 400k for whoever takes him.
Oh, I don’t know how that works. Since he’s released, anyone can pick him up for the minimum? What if two teams want him, can one pay him more, or does he choose between the two teams for minimum pay? What if he says no? Can you explain it for me? Thanks.
The minimum isn’t on top of what the Mets owe him, it replaces a portion of it. So the Phillies would sign Castillo for the league minimum ($414K) and that $414K would come out of what the Mets owe him. He’s been released, so he’s a free agent. He can’t just be claimed, like a player on waivers. So if two teams are offering him ML contracts, it really comes down to who can offer him the best situation. And if he’d prefer to hang up his spikes and enjoy an early retirement, he has that option too, regardless of what teams want him.
Cool, thanks for the info. Makes perfect sense for the Phillies to invite him to the rest of camp then.
Here’s one thing I’ve wondered about. Let’s say he was worth more than his current contract (it’s obviously not the case with castillo, but for argument’s sake). On the open market, he was worth $10MM, but he was inexplicably released instead of being traded for his $6MM salary. Is he limited to the $6MM, or can he ‘give up’ the $6MM and sign a new contract with another team?
Filling in for Chase Utley is exactly what I thouht when I saw he was cut. He was over paid, not useless.
If he signs a ML deal anywhere, it essentially pays for his replacement on the Mets (whether it’s Turner, Emaus, Murphy, or Hernandez), so I’m all for Luis finding a ML job somewhere else. If it has to be Philly, so be it. I think it’s at best even money that he out WARs Valdez, so if the Phillies want to give the Mets $414K to roll those dice, count me in.
Interesting that Cameron puts all his eggs in the Castillo basket without noting the other players in camp like Delwyn Young (more pop and versatility) and Barfield (playing well). Also, why is no one suggesting David Eckstein? Similar hitting skills, bats righty for a left-heavy lineup, and adequate D. Dave, you need to be more thorough in your analysis so it doesn’t look like your funneling the data toward a predetermined answer. You’re better than this.
Forgot to mention, since the Phils haven’t made a desperate move yet, they either think they can fill the void in-house or they don’t think it will be a long-term issue (or both).
I’m happy to see that delwyn and barfield are both having nice STs, but let’s not pretend that we don’t already know what these players are. barfield hasn’t posted a positive WAR since 06 and delwyn has been worth 0.4 combined over the last two years. even at 35, castillo has been a steady player in the past, the most upside of the three for the coming season, and is the most likely to pull a 1+ WAR season this year.
it’s a perfectly natural question to consider whether the phillies should take a look at him, given his recent release. save your cameron-hating for a more deserving time.
First, I’m glad you took the time to write a paragraph discussing the other internal options. My point was Dave didn’t, and it seemed reasonable enough to believe a team claiming to be maxed budget-wise (although they have said that before) would try to exhaust internal options first, it’s not like those guys aren’t worth at least considering. Second, my second comment above was that the Phils may not think this is a long term issue, and that he will be back by, lets say May, and they were satisfied going with Valdez for long stretches in place of Utley last year. A month of Valdez is better than paying another guy with no positional flexibility $414K for a month, then having to send him down (he’d not want that) or waiving him.
Now, if Polanco’s issues cause him to be on the DL you can bet they will put out feelers on Castillo at that point, as they may have more serious depth issues than they already have. Valdez can more than adequately handle third in that case, as he is there only current backup there (thank God, no more Dobbs).
First, fair enough…I didn’t mean to be snarky. However, I’m not sure if anyone has any idea whether the Phillies budget is maxed to the max, but I doubt that the veteran minimum I assume they’d offer to Castillo would make or break the budget. He is absolutely the best option available, including the in-camp options, so I don’t think the article would have been seriously improved by a josh barfield mention.
Having said that, I think you’re right about infield depth. If the Rule V guy Martinez doesn’t make the team outright, do you think that they’ll try to work something out with the Nats? You’re right, polly isn’t getting any younger and given their lack of MLB-ready IF options, he might be worthwhile to have around the organization.
I have hated Castillo since his over-hyped days on the Marlins. Talent is nice, but attitude is everything, and if he was so good for the Marlins, why did they send him away while in the “prime” of his career? He’s a sour, me-centric moper with a bad attitude. If the Phillies want to take include a clubhouse cancer on their roster, as a loyal Mets fan, I can only support the decision with a wicked grin.
Sorry the fish sent away plenty of players in their prime. He was awesome, just never in a Mets’ uniform. I think he could help the Phillies, but not much that is for sure. If i were the Phillies I would try to pry Eric Young, Jr. from the Rockies and I would offer both Jiwan James and Tyson Gillies in return for EY Jr. as a “win now strategy”.
The fact that Castillo is a lefty hitter in a lineup full of lefties probably works against him too
switch
he’s also way better against lefties.
2 career homers vs. righties, 25 vs. lefties in about a third of the plate appearances. I’m not sure if he still carries the power (80 extra slugging percentage points) at this point in his career though.
Also interesting, in a small sample size over his career, Valdez is much worse against lefties. 2010 was the same.
As a Met fan I’ve seen both, and I wouldn’t hesitate to take Valdez over LuisC. Castillo hasn’t been a ML player in years.
2009?
ML *caliber* player was I think what he was getting at.
(Which is open for debate, but Bob clearly sides with the “nay” crowd.)
As limited as ‘Exxon’ Valdez is with the bat, he still posted OPS numbers in ’09 (.660) and ’10 (.667) that were better than what Castillo did in ’08 (.604) and ’10 (.660). ’09 numbers for Castillo strike me as the mirage that were based on a very favorable BABIP and an abnormally high % LD.
If Castillo is 100% healthy (and that is almost never the case anymore), he could be a notably better offensive player than the likely .650-.660 OPS the Phils will get from Valdez this season. If not, you get a .250 AVG/sub .700 OPS guy who isn’t a real clear offensive upgrade over Valdez and is a downgrade defensively.
Castillo though is likely going to give the Phils better offensive numbers than M. Martinez who is basically a slightly inferior offensive version of Valdez and Barfield.
Screw D. How bout dem beebees?
Cubs. He can overtake DeWitt.
This idea, I’ve heard floated a time or two. It strikes me as singularly awful.
Is a DeWitt/Baker platoon a world-beater? Not by any stretch of the imagination.
That said, does Castillo represent any kind of upgrade over that? Not in the least.
And it’s not like it would be a gamble on someone with a high ceiling, or even modest upside. You *know* what you’re getting out of Castillo at this point. And it’s nothing that will be any better than what DeWitt/Baker will give you.
May as well set your money on fire…
Jerryskids- you are dead wrong about his range. I say his range is more like Betty White’s.
Speaking as a Braves fan, I think the Phillies shouldn’t just sign Castillo, they should sign him to a four-year contract.
It’s worth noting that Valdez is hitting.459/.512/.622 in 41 PAs this spring. Small sample size or not, he’s hot right now
I was following right along until you said “worth noting” and then mentioned ST stats.
-C
I was following right along until he said ‘worth nothing’, then ’41 PA’s', and then finally ‘this spring.’
And so it turns out that Luis Castillo signs with the Phillies!