I’ll be interested in the 2010 ROLs.

]]>As I understand it, one of the biggest flaws in the saves statistic is that non-closers are unable to pick up saves (unless they pitch the ninth) but are able to pick up blown saves. However, because of the .06 threshold, it is sometimes only possible for a reliever to pick up either a shutdown or a meltdown. For instance, on April 16th, David Herndon entered game between the Phillies and the Marlins where the Phillies had a 99.7% chance of winning the game. Therefore he had no chance of picking up a shutdown, but managed to pick up a meltdown (thanks to some awful luck), as he left with the Phillies chances of winning below 91%.

Now compare two similar situations. Yesterday, the Rangers trailed the Royals by one in the bottom of the 8th with two outs and nobody on. Three days ago, the Astros trailed the D’backs by one in the bottom of the 8th with two outs and nobody on. In the first situation, Soria gave up a home run to the next hitter, giving Soria a -.319 WPA for that play alone. In the other situation, Juan Gutierrez induced a fly out from Pedro Feliz, giving Gutierrez a +.031 WPA for that play. The starting situations are very similar, but you can see that, against one hitter, the worst case scenario pushes the pitcher over the meltdown threshold, while the best case scenario fails to push the pitcher over the shutdown threshold. In other words, one batter can be easily enough to get a meltdown, but except in very high leverage situations, it’s necessary to face more than one batter to get a shutdown. Neither Soria nor Gutierrez is a LOOGY, but LOOGYs are often only sent in to face one or two hitters (e.g. In 40% of his appearances last year, Scott Eyre faced 2 or fewer hitters). This means that, for LOOGYs, a large percentage of their appearances give them a chance to pick up only a meltdown.

You can make the point that low leverage pitchers are used in low leverage situations for a reason, or that LOOGYs are only LOOGYs for a reason, but this stat seems biased against these kinds of pitchers. A LOOGY can face 20 batters in 20 appearances, retired 19 of 20, and end up with 1 meltdown and 0 shutdowns. A mop-up guy can do his job every time and then get bad luck once and end up with 1 meltdown and 0 shutdowns. It seems to me that this stat has the same problem as saves, just on a different level.

]]>I just want to make sure I understand why 1:1 is replacement rather than “average”.

Thanks.

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