Soler (Nearly) Ready To Pick A System
They say it’s better to be lucky than good. Jorge Soler, however, is hoping to be both. Cuban ballplayers often score big in free agency — as their national system often gives them a leg up developmentally on teenagers from other international destinations. But with the impending change in how the international market will be governed, Soler could end up scoring bigger than most.
Billed as a potential five-tool player with plus-plus power and a very quick bat, the 20-year old outfielder stands out as a tantalizing prospect. It’s been said that he may have been one of the top five picks in last year’s draft, and since that was a loaded draft, the same might very well have been true this year. Assuming everything goes smoothly with his transition to the pros, Soler will almost assuredly be a top 50 prospect next season. Now, whether or not he eventually pans out is another story. Certainly, the track record for Cuban prospects isn’t one that guarantees success: The bloom is off the roses of two recent signees in Jose Iglesias and Leonys Martin, and guys like Juan Miranda and Brayan Pena never really worked out, either. Of course, none of those four came with Soler’s ceiling, but they serve as cautionary tales.
For reference, here’s a comprehensive — but possibly incomplete — chart of all the current Cuban-born players who signed as free agents, and the particulars of their signing:
| Player | Date signed | Team | Age | Contract |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerardo Concepcion | 3/11/2012 | CHC | 20 | 5 yrs, $6 M, $3 M bonus |
| Yoenis Cespedes | 2/13/2012 | OAK | 26 | 4 yrs, $36M |
| Leonys Martin | 5/4/2011 | TEX | 23 | 5 yrs, $15M, $5M bonus |
| Yunesky Maya | 7/31/2010 | WAS | 28 | 4 yrs, $8 M |
| Aroldis Chapman | 1/11/2010 | CIN | 22 | 6 yrs, $30.25M, $16.25M bonus |
| Jose Iglesias | 9/9/2009 | BOS | 19 | 4 yrs, $8.25 M, $6M bonus |
| Dayan Viciedo | 12/12/2008 | CHW | 19 | 4 yrs, $10M, $4M bonus |
| Alexei Ramirez | 12/21/2007 | CHW | 26 | 4 yrs, $4.75M, $500K bonus |
| Juan Miranda | 12/1/2006 | NYY | 23 | 4 yrs, $2.07 M, $500K bonus |
| Yuniesky Betancourt | 1/26/2005 | SEA | 23 | 4 yrs, $2.826M, $1.31M bonus |
| Kendrys Morales | 12/1/2004 | ANA | 21 | 6 yrs, $4.5 M, $3 M bonus |
| Raul Valdes | 3/31/2004 | CHC | 26 | ? |
| Jose Contreras | 12/1/2002 | NYY | 30 | 4 yrs,$32M, $6 M bonus |
| Brayan Pena | 11/2/2000 | ATL | 18 | ? |
| Livan Hernandez | 1/13/1996 | FLO | 20 | 4 yrs, $5M (est), $850K bonus (est) |
Soler stands out as one of the younger players among this group, but he’s certainly not the youngest. But because of the confluence of demand for his services, plus unique timing of his posting, he should go for far more. And he will go for significantly more than pitcher Gerardo Concepcion did before the season.
After scouring the interwebs, the teams mentioned as having interest in Soler are the Astros, Blue Jays, Cubs, Indians, Marlins, Orioles, Phillies, Red Sox, White Sox and Yankees. That’s a full third of all the teams in the game. Many of them have deep pockets, are keen to quickly rebuild their systems, or both. And we don’t always hear about every team that’s interested, so when we count the proverbial mystery teams, it’s not a stretch to think that more than half the teams in baseball have interest in him.
Guessing which team that ultimately will sign Soler with is near impossible, since he isn’t expected in the majors right away. He’s simply the best player available on the market, and as such, there is no team on which he doesn’t fit. But if Internet reports are to be believed — and they often are not, especially when it comes to a Theo Epstein outfit — the Cubs are one team that’s almost certain to submit a high-end bid.
Epstein reportedly saw Soler work out over the winter, and the Cubs fit the profile of a team that could use Soler: a rebuilding franchise with a below-average farm system and oodles of cash to spend. The team also signed Concepcion, one of the two prizes from this past winter’s Cuban market. There were even rumors in late March that the Cubs had agreed to sign Soler to a four-year,$27 million contract. Those rumors were obviously not true, but that hypothetical contract may end up being the floor for his services. That seems like a steep price, especially for a player who’s not likely to be ready for the majors soon. All three of the recent Cubans who topped $30 million — Cespedes, Chapman and Contreras — all made their major league debuts within a year of signing. But as the last international free agent to sign, that’s what he’s going to demand.
Soler’s agents have reportedly asked for all bids to be submitted by Thursday. Still, there may be more to his situation than meets the eye. As Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports, Soler’s agents still have some hoops to jump through. But apparently the items left on their checklist don’t deter them from soliciting bids.
In the past, certain international free agents have drawn bids from several teams. I’m not sure we can call them bidding wars, since teams may not always have the opportunity to submit multiple bids. But even if we can’t call them wars, they’re at least about to become skirmishes. Starting in July, the new cap on international spending will reduce the dollar values for the most highly regarded players. As such, Jorge Soler is poised to become a legend of sorts. The 20-year old might not yet be ready for major league ball, but he’s about to get paid like he is.
GO GO MYSTERY TEAM.
pittsburgh has mentioned interest in soler: https://twitter.com/BiertempfelTrib/status/209647906599354370
once upon a time in 2005 dave littlefield signed a cuban defector named yoslan herrera for 3 years/$1.92 million. good times, good times.
Shouldn’t Adeiny be included in the chart too?
There’s a mistake in your table Not only was Jose Contreras not 30 in 2002, I don’t think he has ever been 30. He was born as a 45 year old.
How the hell has no one else noticed that the “meets the eye” link is to a youtube video about transformers!!!!
because nobody likes you shia labeouf
How is Leonys Martin’s tale cautionary? He was great at AA last year, struggled a bit in AAA, then was tearing up AAA before injuring his thumb. Some people thought that his swing needed to be tweaked to allow him to drive the ball even more, but apparently that tweaking took place.
No $7.2M cap here…
No Danys Baez?
Dodgers have money now. They could use a bat like this in the system.
Noel Arguelles? cautionary tale
The Pirates have been reported to be in on him, but seeing as how they wont give Cespedes money they probably don’t have a shot, thought I wish they would take one…
Headline pun? I see what you did there…
Can I have a hint? I don’t get it.
I am sure there others, but Hechavarria is a pretty obvious miss in your table…
Leonys Martin is hardly a cautionary tale. His grade is “incomplete” after just one pro year, and a couple months of injury to start this year.