2013 Steamer Projections!

The Steamer projections courtesy of steamerprojections.com are now available in the projections section and in the player pages.

The Steamer projections on FanGraphs use the playing time projections from the FAN projections.

Huge thanks to Jared Cross, Dash Davidson, and Peter Rosenbloom; the team behind the Steamer projections.

Update: FIP, HR, and BABIP columns should now be corrected. There was some bad data cached.




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David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.


41 Responses to “2013 Steamer Projections!”

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  1. Sean Murphy says:

    Love the projections. Check Madison Bumgardner’s FIP though-I dont see him lasting long with a FIP hovering around 12.50.

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  2. Lil' Hank Conger says:

    Definitely re-directs to a blank 2012 projection page.

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  3. Jim Lahey says:

    Ya I think the HR/FB and BABIP component got screwed up.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1118&position=P

    I just drafted him in a sim league.. not loving the projections to give up 11 hr per game. :( However, with a negative average on balls in play, that should help me somehow…

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  4. Matt says:

    Ben Sheets is back!

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    • RMD says:

      He’ll allow a HR every single inning, but only a 4.48 ERA. I guess half of all his homers will come with 2 outs and an error previously committed. Hopefully, the smarter teams will be off-put by his 15.84 FIP.

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    • Matt says:

      I’m still confused as to why Ben Sheets projects to throw 231.0 innings…

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      • J. Cross says:

        The playing time is based on Fangraph fan ballots and we haven’t filtered out anomalous projections yet. Sheets has one fan projection and that fan is expected a big time comeback.

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  5. Ross says:

    We’ll see how long Oliver Perez keeps up his projected -.095 BABIP.

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  6. Jay29 says:

    Looks like the Oliver projections are new today too.

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  7. Scott says:

    David Huff w/ 16W FTW

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    • Scott says:

      OK….turns out just Last Player picked is reflecting that crazy number from 2013 steamer projections……probably something to do with a rate being converted to a static value

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  8. Darren says:

    Oliver loves itself some Yu Darvish.

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  9. evo34 says:

    Any plans to show long-term Oliver projections?

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  10. Nathan says:

    Why aren’t the entire projections listed on the Projections page? I.E. Steamer is missing SF, SH, GDP, IBB, K%, BB%, ISO, BABIP, and wRC from the exportable spreadsheet but those stats show up on all the individual player pages.

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  11. theawesomersfranchise says:

    78 stolen bases for Billy Hamilton, that would be awesome, but Steamer might wanna figure out a Dusty Baker factor into these projections.

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  12. mmanovich says:

    Is there something wrong with the Oliver pitching projections? 15 starters with a FIP under 3.00? Doesn’t seem possible…even the fans only have 4 and steamer just has Strasburg.

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  13. Mike610 says:

    very small impact…but the projections are slightly different than the download from the steamer site. Any idea why?

    again, very slight from the few i check; curious more than anything.

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    • J. Cross says:

      The rate projections aren’t completely independent of projected playing time and role (for pitchers, the role makes a big difference, of course) and the projections on the Steamer site have somewhat different playing time/roles forecasted.

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      • evo34 says:

        Why would the Steamer projections here not use your playing time projections? If someone wanted to merge your rate forecasts with the FANS’ playing time forecasts, he/she could. As it is now, your playing time forecasts are being withheld.

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  14. J. Cross says:

    evo34,

    We don’t have our OWN playing time projections. We will play around with the fan playing time though and put our own twist on it (weighing more recent projections more, for instance) as the season draws closer.

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  15. bothdakotas says:

    Unrelated, is there any way to get a spreadsheet with the Bill James player projections? I know you can export the data from Oliver and Steamer. (and hopefully zips when its done)

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  16. Tim says:

    Oh, I thought this was going to be another Delmon Young article.

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  17. Sean D. says:

    How was it decided which players would get projections? I was looking at the Padres ones and while I understand how some of the less experienced players like Tommy Layne, Miles Mikolas and Nick Vincent would get skipped, I don’t understand why Brad Brach (67 games in 2012) and Joe Thatcher (237 career games) would get passed over. Especially considering that someone like Tyson Ross did get a projection.

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    • J. Cross says:

      Thatcher’s Steamer projection isn’t showing up, but he does have one (3.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.5 K/9). I’ll get back to you on this.

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  18. Calvin says:

    BsR is all kinds of messed up in here. Either it’s way, way too heavily regressed or the SB/CS portion isn’t split out from wOBA the way it is on the player pages.

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  19. tarheelhitch says:

    I’m really confused as to how the Steamer projections translate to their estimated fantasy value. Michael Young being worth more than Buster Posey, for example. Is there an explanation of that somewhere?

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    • byron says:

      That’s only in an NL-only league. Chance it’s a mistake, or chance NL 3B is dead and NL C isn’t so bad. I don’t play in any single-league leagues to know.

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  20. phaddix says:

    I am confused about the Steamer projections. Are the Steamer/Razzball projections available for download through the Steamer site the same as those referenced here? I am seeing a good deal of variation across the board.

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    • J. Cross says:

      phaddix, the playing time is different. The playing time here is from Fangraph fan ballots and the Steamer/Razzball playing time is from Rudy Gamble of Razzball. For pitchers, the roles might be a little different (guys expected to start on one site, throwing innings in relief on the other) and that might make a significant difference in the rates. Beyond that the rates should be very similar but not identical since they have a (slight) dependance on playing time.

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  21. Greg S says:

    Anyone else notice that Steamer projected 2013 stats for former Rockie/current Seahawks QB Russell Wilson?

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  22. shthar says:

    Do you have these for Cleveland?

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  23. John says:

    What does the $OBP mean for the fantasy column? Does it mean if you’re league uses OBP instead of average? Thanks for any help!

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  24. B.o.B says:

    Ok I’m fairly new to all this. I’m in a 10 team, Yahoo H2H 5×5 league with OBP instead of Avg. I have the 4th in my upcoming draft and I’m sure 1-3 will be Trout, Miggy and Braun. Based on these Steamer/Fans projections, who should I be taking? I pretty much had Cano locked up but not so sure anymore after looking at this. Thanks for any help/advice that can be given to me!

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