Steamer Projects: Cincinnati Reds Prospects

Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Cincinnati Reds.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Reds or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Baltimore / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Colorado / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Toronto.

Steamer Projections: Cincinnati Batting Prospects
Below are the current 2014 projections for select Cincinnati batting prospects. All projections have been prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers) for sake of uniformity. Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age POS PA BB% K% BABIP wRC+ BsR Off Def* WAR
9 Tucker Barnhart 23 C 450 7.8% 16.3% .265 70 0 -15 8 0.8
2 Billy Hamilton 23 CF 550 7.3% 18.8% .300 77 3 -14 3 0.7
4 Yorman Rodriguez 21 OF 550 5.6% 27.8% .291 64 0 -22 -2 -0.6
13 Seth Mejias-Brean 23 CIF 550 5.3% 16.5% .254 63 0 -23 -4 -0.9
3 Phillip Ervin 21 OF 550 5.3% 19.1% .236 52 0 -30 -2 -1.4
5 Jesse Winker 20 LF 550 6.6% 17.5% .239 58 0 -26 -6 -1.4

Steamer Projections: Cincinnati Pitching Prospects
Below are the 2014 projections for select Cincinnati pitching prospects. Projections for starting pitchers have been prorated to 150 innings; for relievers, to 50 innings. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR, which has been calculated by using kwERA — that is, an ERA estimator which utilizes only strikeouts and walks — so as to remove the vagaries of park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age Hand IP K% BB% kwERA kwERA- WAR
1 Robert Stephenson 21 RHP 150 23.0% 11.0% 3.87 100 1.9
8 Nick Travieso 20 RHP 150 18.9% 11.0% 4.36 113 1.0
10 David Holmberg 22 LHP 150 15.8% 8.8% 4.47 116 0.8
7 Carlos Contreras 23 RHP 150 20.5% 13.9% 4.52 117 0.7
14 Chad Rogers 24 RHP 150 15.8% 9.5% 4.55 118 0.6
12 Daniel Corcino 23 RHP 150 16.0% 12.0% 4.83 125 0.2
6 Michael Lorenzen 22 RHP 50 11.8% 10.0% 5.09 132 -0.1

Notes
Billy Hamilton‘s Steamer projection is considerably less optimistic than the ZiPS one published in these pages about a month ago, which latter projection forecasts Hamilton for about 2.3 WAR for every 550 plate appearances in 2014 (i.e. about 1.5 wins more). Notably, Steamer’s assessment of Hamilton’s plate discipline is actually more favorable, producing a 7.3% walk and 18.8% strikeout rate for the outfielder against ZiPS’ figures of 7.4% and 20.8%, respectively. Indeed, the main disagreement appears to concern BABIP. Steamer projects a .300 mark; ZiPS, a .332.

• Hulet suggests in his brief summary of the organization that the centerpiece of the Reds’ system is young right-hander Robert Stephenson, but that, after him (i.e. Stephenson), there’s less in the way of high-upside talent. Perhaps somewhat surprisingly for a pitcher who’s recorded just eight starts above A-ball, Stephenson is also regarded by Steamer’s computer math as the prospect most ready to contribute wins at the major-league level.

• Also perhaps surprising is Steamer’s assessment of Nick Travieso — somewhat promising, that, considering the right-hander’s youth, inexperience, and lack of particularly gaudy numbers. One potential explanation for Steamer’s enthusiasm here: Travieso’s fastball velocity has been excellent at points, if not consistently so.




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.

3 Responses to “Steamer Projects: Cincinnati Reds Prospects”

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  1. Scrap Irony says:

    The only way Hamilton has a .300 BaBIP is if he breaks his leg– and keeps playing.

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  2. Haastile says:

    A player who hits as many infield singles as Hamilton won’t have a hard time exceeding .300 babip

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  3. Frank says:

    Well the other two comments address it, but still, if somebody gives you a projection of Billy Hamilton’s upcoming season and gives him a .300 BABIP shouldn’t you get your money back?

    Vote -1 Vote +1

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