Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Los Angeles Angels.
It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Angels or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.
What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.
Steamer Projections: Angels Batting Prospects
Below are the current 2014 projections for select Angels batting prospects. All projections have been prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers) for sake of uniformity. Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.
Steamer Projections: Angels Pitching Prospects
Below are the 2014 projections for select Angels pitching prospects. Projections for starting pitchers have been prorated to 150 innings; for relievers, to 50 innings. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR, which has been calculated by using kwERA — that is, an ERA estimator which utilizes only strikeouts and walks — so as to remove the vagaries of park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.
• Despite having, as noted by Marc Hulet, one of the weaker systems in baseball, the Angels do seem to have a few younger players with reasonably high floors, at least. The question for all three of Taylor Lindsey, Alex Yarbrough, and C.J. Cron would appear to be if the quality of their offensive production can compensate for their defensive shortcomings — to which comment the author will append a reminder that most of the defensive projections above include only positional adjustment and not any sort of runs-saved component.
• Despite whatever the future holds for him, Zachary Borenstein will always have the distinction of having finished third among all minor-league hitters in 2013 by a wOBA estimator based on fielding-independent offensive stats.
• It’s probably not what anyone would call a “best case scenario” for a club’s top-two pitching prospects by projected WAR both to have a future in relief work only. This does appear, however, to be the case for the Angels, as right-hander R.J. Alvarez and left-hander Nick Maronde are the only two Angels pitching prospects projected to produce positive WAR figures. The former struck out nearly 40% of Cal League batters last year.