Steamer Projects: Los Angeles Dodgers Prospects

Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Los Angeles Dodgers.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Dodgers or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / St. Louis / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Toronto.

Steamer Projections: Dodgers Batting Prospects
Below are the current 2014 projections for select Dodgers batting prospects. All projections have been prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers) for sake of uniformity. Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age POS PA BB% K% BABIP wRC+ BsR Off Def* WAR
9 Alexander Guerrero 27 2B 550 6.1% 17.0% .264 97 -1 -2 2 1.9
2 Joc Pederson 22 CF 550 8.0% 20.7% .280 95 0 -3 2 1.8
1 Corey Seager 20 SS 550 5.1% 22.7% .242 53 0 -29 6 -0.5
10 Jesmuel Valentin 20 2B/SS 550 4.9% 18.1% .222 32 -1 -42 4 -2.1

Steamer Projections: Dodgers Pitching Prospects
Below are the 2014 projections for select Dodgers pitching prospects. Projections for starting pitchers have been prorated to 150 innings; for relievers, to 50 innings. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR, which has been calculated by using kwERA — that is, an ERA estimator which utilizes only strikeouts and walks — so as to remove the vagaries of park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age Hand IP K% BB% kwERA kwERA- WAR
3 Zach Lee 22 RHP 150 19.2% 8.1% 3.98 103 1.7
13 Matt Magill 24 RHP 150 21.1% 12.6% 4.29 111 1.1
4 Julio Urias 17 LHP 150 18.5% 10.3% 4.33 112 1.0
11 Onelki Garcia 24 LHP 50 24.1% 12.4% 3.91 101 0.6
8 Ross Stripling 24 RHP 50 19.2% 7.9% 3.95 102 0.6
6 Tom Windle 22 LHP 150 15.6% 10.5% 4.70 121 0.4
5 Chris Anderson 21 RHP 150 16.2% 11.3% 4.72 122 0.4
7 Chris Reed 24 LHP 50 19.7% 10.9% 4.25 110 0.4
14 Zachary Bird 19 RHP 150 11.9% 12.2% 5.35 138 -0.6

Notes
• “How good of a major-leaguer will be Alexander Guerrero?” is a question that a number of people — including, for example, everyone within the Dodgers organization — both have asked and continue to ask in the present. According to Steamer: about a league-average one, probably. Of course, many of the same caveats which apply to Jose Abreu‘s projection — considered recently in some detail within these pages — are also relevant to the Cuban émigré Guerrero.

• As noted by Hulet in his assessment of the outfielder, Joc Pederson has not always been regarded as having the brightest of major-league futures. Following a 2013 season, however, in which he demonstrated an impressive range of skills/tools, those impressions of Pederson’s future have changed. Steamer is optimistic, projecting a nearly league-average line as Pederson enters just his age-22 season.

• The projection for Chris Reed may not be particularly interesting in and of itself; however, it provides some clue as to how Steamer might account for a pitcher’s role. As a starter, Reed was projected for strikeout and walk rates of 17.3% and 12.2%, respectively. As a reliever, however, those rates improve to 19.7% and 10.9%. That speaks, of course, to the challenges of starting work — of having less of the platoon advantage, for example, and perhaps having to work with more moderate velocity for larger stretches.




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Carson Cistulli occasionally publishes spirited ejaculations at The New Enthusiast.

2 Responses to “Steamer Projects: Los Angeles Dodgers Prospects”

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  1. cody.stumpo says:

    Julio Urias at age 17 in the major leagues, with 50 professional IP so far in his life, would have a 4.33 ERA. That’s fairly amazing projection.

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    • libradawg says:

      The whole point of this is instead of trying to figure out what the Dodgers will do or who will get hurt when, just assume the position has opened up already. I’m shocked you pointed that out instead of the Obsessive Compulsive managing going on here. Seriously, every Dodgers prospect plays in exact multiples of 50 yet the thing that caught you off guard is Urias’ age??

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