Steamer Projects: Milwaukee Brewers Prospects

Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Milwaukee Brewers.

It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Brewers or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.

What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.

Other prospect projections: Arizona / Baltimore / Chicago AL / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Miami / Minnesota / New York NL / San Diego / San Francisco / Seattle / Toronto.

Steamer Projections: Milwaukee Batting Prospects
Below are the current 2014 projections for select Milwaukee batting prospects. All projections have been prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers) for sake of uniformity. Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age POS PA BB% K% BABIP wRC+ BsR Off Def* WAR
15 Hunter Morris 25 1B 550 5.6% 20.6% .271 91 0 -6 -10 0.3
5 Mitchell Haniger 23 OF 550 6.1% 18.8% .250 58 0 -26 -2 -1.0
12 Nick Delmonico 21 CIF 550 7.9% 21.7% .236 61 0 -24 -4 -1.0
8 Clint Coulter 20 C 450 5.1% 22.9% .224 32 0 -35 8 -1.2
1 Tyrone Taylor 20 CF 550 4.1% 14.5% .239 48 0 -32 2 -1.3
10 Orlando Arcia 19 SS 550 4.3% 10.2% .223 39 -1 -38 6 -1.4
3 Victor Roache 22 COF 550 5.0% 27.6% .237 39 0 -38 -6 -2.7
11 Tucker Neuhaus 19 SS/3B 550 3.8% 22.0% .210 10 0 -56 4 -3.5

Steamer Projections: Milwaukee Pitching Prospects
Below are the 2014 projections for select Milwaukee pitching prospects. Projections for starting pitchers have been prorated to 150 innings; for relievers, to 50 innings. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR, which has been calculated by using kwERA — that is, an ERA estimator which utilizes only strikeouts and walks — so as to remove the vagaries of park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.

# Name Age Hand IP K% BB% kwERA kwERA- WAR
14 Damien Magnifico 23 RHP 150 24.5% 14.4% 4.10 106 1.5
2 Jimmy Nelson 25 RHP 50 21.3% 11.5% 4.13 107 0.5
7 David Goforth 25 RHP 150 13.7% 10.0% 4.87 126 0.1
13 Jed Bradley 24 LHP 150 14.2% 10.6% 4.88 126 0.1
6 Taylor Jungmann 24 RHP 150 12.3% 10.8% 5.13 133 -0.3
4 Johnny Hellweg 25 RHP 150 13.9% 14.9% 5.43 140 -0.8

• Despite being regarded over the last few years as lacking in depth, the Milwaukee system has generally had a number of high-floored players who appeared likely to produce, if not a great deal of value, then at least some — players, that is, such as Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett, and Logan Schafer, who have since graduated to the majors. The present incarnation of the Brewers system seems to offer less of this sort of player, for better or worse.

• The author will note here that the defensive projection for Clint Coulter accounts only for the positional adjustment administered to a player who catches and not, beyond that, any sort of estimate of Coulter’s possible runs saved at that position. Given the scouting reports on Coulter, negative runs is probably how many he’d save as a major-league catcher, at the moment. How many negative runs, precisely, is at the discretion of the reader.

• The reason for Damien Magnifico‘s relatively promising projection — in particular, from a pitcher who recorded strikeout and walk rates of 13.6% and 13.6%, respectively, over 10 starts at just High-A — likely has quite a lot to do with how he throws 100 mph, velocity being one of the variables for which Steamer accounts. Pitchers who throw 100 mph have a decidedly higher margin for error than pitchers who don’t throw that. Unless Magnifico’s command improves considerably in 2014, it’s unlikely he’ll be given the opportunity to test the validity of Steamer’s major-league projection for him.

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8 Responses to “Steamer Projects: Milwaukee Brewers Prospects”

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  1. Steve says:

    To echo comments in the prospects post, when your top 5 would give you -5 wins this year… you’ve got a way to go…

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    • Steven says:

      The Brewers system is weak, but that’s an asinine comment. Most of those players aren’t supposed to be able to contribute in the major leagues this year.

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      • Steve says:

        Not asinine… you said it yourself… most of those players aren’t supposed to be able to contribute this year…

        Most teams with good systems in fact have top prospects who COULD contribute this year.

        I understand they are young/far off… that is part of the point.

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  2. Ivan Grushenko says:

    There’s a person named Damien Magnifico?

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  3. Bob M says:

    I find it interesting that Jimmy Nelson is a candidate for the #5 starter role (though he will probably start the season in AAA), yet is listed as an RP for these purposes. Given his MiLB record as a SP, I can only assume this is because he made a few relief appearances as a September call-up last year.

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  4. Bob M says:

    Also, if Hunter Morris is able to meet these projections it would be a massive improvement at the 1B position over last season.

    Yes, it was that bad. The Brewers options ranged from 0 WAR to -1.8 WAR, each in 400 ABs or less.

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