Earlier today, polite and Canadian and polite Marc Hulet published his 2014 organizational prospect list for the Milwaukee Brewers.
It goes without saying that, in composing such a list, Hulet has considered the overall future value those prospects might be expected to provide either to the Brewers or whatever other organizations to which they might someday belong.
What this brief post concerns isn’t overall future value, at all, but rather such value as the prospects from Hulet’s list might provide were they to play, more or less, a full major-league season in 2014.
Steamer Projections: Milwaukee Batting Prospects
Below are the current 2014 projections for select Milwaukee batting prospects. All projections have been prorated to 550 plate appearances (and 450 for catchers) for sake of uniformity. Defensive figures (denoted by Def) account both for positional adjustment and UZR, and are presented relative to league average. Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts in 2013. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.
Steamer Projections: Milwaukee Pitching Prospects
Below are the 2014 projections for select Milwaukee pitching prospects. Projections for starting pitchers have been prorated to 150 innings; for relievers, to 50 innings. Prospects are listed in order of projected WAR, which has been calculated by using kwERA — that is, an ERA estimator which utilizes only strikeouts and walks — so as to remove the vagaries of park effects, and probably also because the author has no idea what he’s doing. Listed ages are as of June 30, 2014. The symbol # denotes the relevant prospect’s ranking on Hulet’s list. Figures might diverge slightly (although not signficantly) from those which appear on player pages.
• Despite being regarded over the last few years as lacking in depth, the Milwaukee system has generally had a number of high-floored players who appeared likely to produce, if not a great deal of value, then at least some — players, that is, such as Khris Davis, Scooter Gennett, and Logan Schafer, who have since graduated to the majors. The present incarnation of the Brewers system seems to offer less of this sort of player, for better or worse.
• The author will note here that the defensive projection for Clint Coulter accounts only for the positional adjustment administered to a player who catches and not, beyond that, any sort of estimate of Coulter’s possible runs saved at that position. Given the scouting reports on Coulter, negative runs is probably how many he’d save as a major-league catcher, at the moment. How many negative runs, precisely, is at the discretion of the reader.
• The reason for Damien Magnifico‘s relatively promising projection — in particular, from a pitcher who recorded strikeout and walk rates of 13.6% and 13.6%, respectively, over 10 starts at just High-A — likely has quite a lot to do with how he throws 100 mph, velocity being one of the variables for which Steamer accounts. Pitchers who throw 100 mph have a decidedly higher margin for error than pitchers who don’t throw that. Unless Magnifico’s command improves considerably in 2014, it’s unlikely he’ll be given the opportunity to test the validity of Steamer’s major-league projection for him.